James Cook on IG Live - "15 mill year" EDIT: Scrubbed his IG and Doubled Down on Twitter

[Doc Brown]

7 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

To be fair about total yards rushing...

 

Attempts:

 

Barkley 345

Henry 325

Robinson 304

Gibbs 250

 

Cook 207

That's the argument against Cook as he's not an every down back so he's not going to get as many carries as a bell cow RB.

[BuffaloBillyG]

6 hours ago, klos63 said:

Mostert was injured most of last season and is 33 years old.  Not many RB in the league that old. 

Cook was a 2nd round pick,  to think his 2nd thousand yard season in his 1st 3 seasons is a fluke doesn't make sense. He's improved every season and our running game was one of the best in the league. To not keep your RB1 seems kinda crazy.  

I was referring to 16 TDs being the flukey number. And frankly just barely  cracking over 1000 yards these days isn't that rare. That's 58ish yards a game. If you want to I'll even give you that he missed a game. That springs the number to 62.5 yards needed for 1,000. That's not worth $15M, sorry.

[Doc Brown]

58 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I was referring to 16 TDs being the flukey number. And frankly just barely  cracking over 1000 yards these days isn't that rare. That's 58ish yards a game. If you want to I'll even give you that he missed a game. That springs the number to 62.5 yards needed for 1,000. That's not worth $15M, sorry.

He did average 4.9ypc though and has the long speed we haven't had at running back since McCoy.  I agree that TD's are highly volatile year to year but Cook clearly put on muscle last off-season that contributed from the jump of 2 rushing TD's to 16 TD's in one season with less carries.  He ran with a physicality that I thought I'd never see from him when we first drafted him.  I've always been a never draft a RB in the 1st round person and never to a 2nd contract person.  However, Cook has less tread on the tires than all the disaster 2nd contracts (Gurley, Zeke, Bell) going all the way back to Georgia.  If he were to sign a three year extension for around $11m a year that was easy to get out of after year two I wouldn't hate it.  Not $15m though.

Edited March 13 by Doc Brown

[BarleyNY]

12 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

To be fair about total yards rushing...

 

Attempts:

 

Barkley 345

Henry 325

Robinson 304

Gibbs 250

 

Cook 207

 

But when Cook had a heavier workload in 2023 he broke down by the end of the season. Thats why the Bills reduced his snaps to 45-50%. Barkley and Henry play 90%+ of snaps in close games. One of those 3 RBs is not like the others. Again, I’d like to keep Cook, but he warrants a contract around $10M AAV - not $15M. 

[Magox]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

That's the argument against Cook as he's not an every down back so he's not going to get as many carries as a bell cow RB.

I don’t think it’s because he can’t just that the Bills really like their compliment of backs.   I think he could easily carry the ball 275 times a year which would be around 16 times a game.  It’s a luxury to have 2 above average backup RB’s at their disposal.

 

 

[H2o]

I think the lack of news on this front, especially in light of the other signings and re-signings we have made, is because Beane and Co. have placed a number on Cook's value. They will not exceed that number. No matter how much he lobbies, no matter what Cook does publicly to stir the pot, or privately behind closed doors, whether on his own or through his agent, Beane and Co. are not going to exceed that limit. 

[babulator]

12 minutes ago, Magox said:

I think he could easily carry the ball 275 times a year which would be around 16 times a game.

Even if he could, how long could he last? I just dont see him holding up for very long under the physical abuse it takes to be an every down back in the NFL. It's not just the carries but all the chipping and  blocking and blitz pickups. These are long and physically grueling seasons, especially as a perennial playoff team. He's simply not that guy, or if he could be, it would be Not For Long. 

[Magox]

Just now, babulator said:

Even if he could, how long could he last? I just dont see him holding up for very long under the physical abuse it takes to be an every down back in the NFL. It's not just the carries but all the chipping and  blocking and blitz pickups. These are long and physically grueling seasons, especially as a perennial playoff team. He's simply not that guy, or if he could be, it would be Not For Long. 

He is entering into his 4th season, he doesn’t have many miles on that tread, easily 3-5 more years.

 

His market value will be $12m+.

 

If he signs a $12M deal it would be a team friendly deal, he doesn’t want to sign a team friendly deal.  He wants to maximize and I’m guessing at this current moment he wouldn’t want to sign for below $14M

 

The recent signings of Aaron Jones, Saquon and Semaji Perine strengthen his case.

 

However, if he doesn’t sign then there will be no big money this year and there is always a risk of a serious injury that would devalue his worth.

 

I think everyday that goes by the pressure is on him to lower his contract demand.    I think the Bills understand this and will wait it out, there is no hurry on the Bills to get a deal done.

 

Im guessing he will eventually sign at around $13m AAV

[babulator]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

he doesn’t have many miles on that tread, easily 3-5 more years.

In a perfect world yes, but I think experience has taught OBD that health and longevity is not a given. Increased workload and responsibilities (blocking) might see him fading towards the end of the season, or in the playoffs or worse be  unavailable. Im just not sure I can be convinced that its a good idea riding him like that. I feel like his explosiveness would diminish by years end and more moving forward. I like the Bills approach here.

[DrDawkinstein]

7 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

That's the argument against Cook as he's not an every down back so he's not going to get as many carries as a bell cow RB.

 

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

But when Cook had a heavier workload in 2023 he broke down by the end of the season. Thats why the Bills reduced his snaps to 45-50%. Barkley and Henry play 90%+ of snaps in close games. One of those 3 RBs is not like the others. Again, I’d like to keep Cook, but he warrants a contract around $10M AAV - not $15M. 

 

Sure.

 

To be clear, I have NEVER once argued in this thread that he should get $15M/yr.

 

Almost all of my posts in here have simply been addressing the crazy over-reaction to a few innocuous social media posts, and the fan delusion that those posts preventing his deal getting done, or that Beane refuses to negotiate with him due to those posts. And/or the follow up posts of folks wanting to devalue him based on their anger over his posts.

 

WRT the actual situation, I am fully on the same page as @Magox's post right above this.

 

Beane sent offers out to all our guys with 1 year left, most likely Cook included. Those early offers are usually team friendly, and have been proven so by the deals that got completed.

 

Based on the numbers in the deals we've seen, namely Shakir at $20M and Benford at $12.5M, and with the way teams value RBs, I expect the Bills offer was in the $10-12M range. Cook wants $15M. The team hasnt come up enough for him to sign yet. Maybe they will. Maybe they wont. I dont think either side is being unreasonable as they arent really that far apart. And I dont think his social media posts have anything to do with a deal not getting done yet. It's just a case of not finding the right number yet.

[Simon]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He did average 4.9ypc though and has the long speed we haven't had at running back since McCoy.  I agree that TD's are highly volatile year to year but Cook clearly put on muscle last off-season that contributed from the jump of 2 rushing TD's to 16 TD's in one season with less carries.  He ran with a physicality that I thought I'd never see from him when we first drafted him.  I've always been a never draft a RB in the 1st round person and never to a 2nd contract person.  However, Cook has less tread on the tires than all the disaster 2nd contracts (Gurley, Zeke, Bell) going all the way back to Georgia.  If he were to sign a three year extension for around $11m a year that was easy to get out of after year two I wouldn't hate it.  Not $15m though.

 

Agree with all of this, although I'm still not entirely convinced he has that long speed.

What he does have is truly elite burst around the LOS. Adding the physicality that makes him no longer an easy arm tackle has made him that much more dangerous as well.

I rarely approve of drafting a RB before the 3rd rnd and I cannot remember the last time I even considered giving a Bills RB a significant contract, but about halfway through last season, Cook had me seriously reconsidering that long time stance.

[Magox]

6 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Agree with all of this, although I'm still not entirely convinced he has that long speed.

What he does have is truly elite burst around the LOS. Adding the physicality that makes him no longer an easy arm tackle has made him that much more dangerous as well.

I rarely approve of drafting a RB before the 3rd rnd and I cannot remember the last time I even considered giving a Bills RB a significant contract, but about halfway through last season, Cook had me seriously reconsidering that long time stance.

 

Me as well.  Going into last year I always thought of Cook as a good back and I in my mind was already beginning to believe that we probably shouldn't extend him.  Sometime around halfway during the year I began to reconsider the possibility of bringing him back and and by the time the season was over I completely made a 180 and believed that a deal should be done.  Based off his play last year he no longer is simply a good dime a dozen back but an upper echelon player top 5-6 at his position and advanced metrics agree with that.   

 

I think what really did it for me was his homerun playmaking ability and the fact that he showed more in between the tackle strength to run the ball.  How many times did we see him go low to bounce off defenders and push forward for a few more yards.  Some like to minimize his 16 TD's, I think that's crazy.  He showed strength and the ability to bounce it outside when defenders were crowded in the middle.   

 

As a general philosophy, I don't think its good business to get rid of playmakers and no doubt that he was the Bills best offensive skilled position player on the team aside from Allen.   I'm not advocating for the Bills to give him what he wants but to make every effort to bridge the gap.

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Me as well.  Going into last year I always thought of Cook as a good back and I in my mind was already beginning to believe that we probably shouldn't extend him.  Sometime around halfway during the year I began to reconsider the possibility of bringing him back and and by the time the season was over I completely made a 180 and believed that a deal should be done.  Based off his play last year he no longer is simply a good dime a dozen back but an upper echelon player top 5-6 at his position and advanced metrics agree with that.   

 

I think what really did it for me was his homerun playmaking ability and the fact that he showed more in between the tackle strength to run the ball.  How many times did we see him go low to bounce off defenders and push forward for a few more yards.  Some like to minimize his 16 TD's, I think that's crazy.  He showed strength and the ability to bounce it outside when defenders were crowded in the middle.   

 

As a general philosophy, I don't think its good business to get rid of playmakers and no doubt that he was the Bills best offensive skilled position player on the team aside from Allen.   I'm not advocating for the Bills to give him what he wants but to make every effort to bridge the gap.

 

Yes, yes, and yes. We saw huge growth from him last year that can't just be chalked up to having a good OL. He was running through contact, he powered people into the end zone at the goal line, and he's the first Bills RB in a looooong time that can take it to the house on any given play and completely change the game.

[Simon]

3 hours ago, Magox said:

 

Me as well.  Going into last year I always thought of Cook as a good back and I in my mind was already beginning to believe that we probably shouldn't extend him.  Sometime around halfway during the year I began to reconsider the possibility of bringing him back and and by the time the season was over I completely made a 180 and believed that a deal should be done.  Based off his play last year he no longer is simply a good dime a dozen back but an upper echelon player top 5-6 at his position and advanced metrics agree with that.   

 

I think what really did it for me was his homerun playmaking ability and the fact that he showed more in between the tackle strength to run the ball.  How many times did we see him go low to bounce off defenders and push forward for a few more yards.  Some like to minimize his 16 TD's, I think that's crazy.  He showed strength and the ability to bounce it outside when defenders were crowded in the middle.   

 

As a general philosophy, I don't think its good business to get rid of playmakers and no doubt that he was the Bills best offensive skilled position player on the team aside from Allen.   I'm not advocating for the Bills to give him what he wants but to make every effort to bridge the gap.

 

There were about a half dozen times through the second half of the season that I wanted to start a thread about the possibility of extending him, but I'm still having a hard time overcoming my own biases. If the Bills are comfortable with how they can work him into the cap without excessively limiting their ability in other areas, I think they should go for it. One thing that possibly gives them pause is I think he probably has some gangsta in him, which might make them hesitant to make that kind of commitment. I also think the same thing of Benford.

If they don't do it, they are essentially creating a hole that is going to have to be filled with another 2nd rnd pick. I like Ray Davis, but he is never going to be James Cook.

[UKBillFan]

39 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Sure.

 

To be clear, I have NEVER once argued in this thread that he should get $15M/yr.

 

Almost all of my posts in here have simply been addressing the crazy over-reaction to a few innocuous social media posts, and the fan delusion that those posts preventing his deal getting done, or that Beane refuses to negotiate with him due to those posts. And/or the follow up posts of folks wanting to devalue him based on their anger over his posts.

 

WRT the actual situation, I am fully on the same page as @Magox's post right above this.

 

Beane sent offers out to all our guys with 1 year left, most likely Cook included. Those early offers are usually team friendly, and have been proven so by the deals that got completed.

 

Based on the numbers in the deals we've seen, namely Shakir at $20M and Benford at $12.5M, and with the way teams value RBs, I expect the Bills offer was in the $10-12M range. Cook wants $15M. The team hasnt come up enough for him to sign yet. Maybe they will. Maybe they wont. I dont think either side is being unreasonable as they arent really that far apart. And I dont think his social media posts have anything to do with a deal not getting done yet. It's just a case of not finding the right number yet.

 

I highly doubt it was his intention but Josh's "What's an extra five..." comment could be applied go Cook. What's an extra three? Team friendly or player friendly? Albeit with the caveat Josh's career earnings obviously exceed Cook's. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

I highly doubt it was his intention but Josh's "What's an extra five..." comment could be applied go Cook. What's an extra three? Team friendly or player friendly? Albeit with the caveat Josh's career earnings obviously exceed Cook's. 

 

Folks keep saying this but it's a totally unfair comparison as you say in the bold. Here is why:

 

On 3/10/2025 at 8:24 AM, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Josh Allen has already made, as of today, over $174M. Plus, likely another $50-100M in endorsement deals. So he is currently sitting on over a quarter billion dollars. 

 

He just signed another contract which will pay him an additional $330M. And still has the earning power as a face-of-the-league QB to earn millions in endorsement deals the rest of his life. He'll likely be paid close to $1Billion by the time he is 40.

 

James Cook has made $4M, and has ONE shot at a big contract to live off of the rest of his life (and any generational money to pass down). At an average of 3-4 years for extensions, he's trying to get a $45M total deal.

 

Josh earns more in 1 year than Cook will earn in his entire career.

 

It makes sense one is giving a "discount" to "only" $55M/year, while the other is working any angle he can to earn that amount spread out across his entire career(life).

 

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

31 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

Almost all of my posts in here have simply been addressing the crazy over-reaction to a few innocuous social media posts, and the fan delusion that those posts preventing his deal getting done, or that Beane refuses to negotiate with him due to those posts. And/or the follow up posts of folks wanting to devalue him based on their anger over his posts.

 

"Innocuous social media posts", did you not see the $15M dollar part?  Kind of a red flag to a lot of us that the negotiations were going to be difficult.

 

You've never responded to why anyone who wants to remain a Bill would do that.  For many of us the "kids will be kids" rational doesn't fly - he had a brother in the league and has an agent.  What do you think they were expecting with the $15M post, that they were going to win over the fanbase?

 

Now we get the buffering from Cook, remember when Diggs put out his "Well??" comment.....oh, that's right you don't allow any comparisons to Diggs.

[Magox]

5 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:

 

I highly doubt it was his intention but Josh's "What's an extra five..." comment could be applied go Cook. What's an extra three? Team friendly or player friendly? Albeit with the caveat Josh's career earnings obviously exceed Cook's. 

 

Not the same at all.  James Cook's networth is probably 2% of what Josh Allen's is and Josh Allen has a guaranteed contract of $250 M more that will be coming in and has significantly more corporate endorsement deals.  The shelf life of a QB if successful is around 15 years, the shelf life of a successful RB is about half of that.

 

This is arguably the last big contract that he will ever have and then it dries up.   I don't begrudge him for trying to make enough money to leave a legacy behind.   Could he have handled it differently?  Sure, but honestly I don't care too much about that, it's not as if he is bad mouthing the organization or its players.

[DrDawkinstein]

5 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

"Innocuous social media posts", did you not see the $15M dollar part?  Kind of a red flag to a lot of us that the negotiations were going to be difficult.

 

You've never responded to why anyone who wants to remain a Bill would do that.  For many of us the "kids will be kids" rational doesn't fly - he had a brother in the league and has an agent.  What do you think they were expecting with the $15M post, that they were going to win over the fanbase?

 

Now we get the buffering from Cook, remember when Diggs put out his "Well??" comment.....oh, that's right you don't allow any comparisons to Diggs.

 

You mean the one COMMENT he made deep on someone else's post that had less then 3 full words of "15 mill year"?

 

So what? Who cares? Put on your big boy pants, put your phone down, build a bridge and get over it.

 

Diggs was having huge blowouts with the Head Coach, in front of everyone, on the first day of OTAs. THAT is what got him out the door. The Cook situation is nothing like that.

 

Get a grip.

[Logic]

16 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

 

 

Yes. It's a bunch of old men crying over some emojis posted on social media.

 

To be fair about total yards rushing...

 

Attempts:

 

Barkley 345

Henry 325

Robinson 304

Gibbs 250

 

Cook 207

Indeed.

But Cook's lack of workhorse size, build and pass blocking ability -- the likely reasons he didn't approach the level of touches those guys got -- is another reason I believe he's not worth top dollar. 

If I'm giving a running back a second contract and paying him like one of the five or ten best backs in the league, I want him to be able to handle a Henry/Robinson level workload if called upon to do so.

Edited March 13 by Logic