This is now on Beane, no question he needs to step up.

[Doc Brown]

56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I don't disagree that his biggest "reach" against draft media consensus was Elam. Although Elam was definitely a guy teams liked more than the talking heads. I remember the Athletic doing a piece a couple of years ago in which Brett Veach said if they couldn't get up for McDuffie he was Kansas City's fall back option. It was a case of the draft media being smarter than teams. 

From what I remember Veach said that staying put at either 29 and 30 they feared they'd miss out on both corners they pry had first round grades on (McDuffie and Elam).  Fricken Belichick trades the pick and they end up drafting Cole Strange.  Goes to show how much a crapshoot the draft really is.  I think Elam was more of a project than the Bills realized.

[Sweats]

21 hours ago, Logic said:

I agree.

Beane has been good at hitting singles and doubles and even the occasional triple his whole GM career, but he too rarely hits homeruns. 

The Bills don't have enough difference makers. Don't have enough "very good to elite" players. Sure, he drafts guys that stick around the league and are in the "pretty good to good" category. But he doesn't draft enough KILLERS.

And no, the "we pick too late in every draft" thing is not an excuse, and I hate when Beane says any version of it.

I like Brandon Beane overall as a GM, but I agree: When it comes to evaluating college talent and drafting, Brandon Beane needs to step it up, ESPECIALLY in rounds 1 and 2.

 

 

 

I like Beane, i really do, however, our FO seems hell bent on drafting "character guys" as opposed to "talent guys"......they just love their high character guys for some reason and maybe it's cause they don't have to deal with divas in the locker room........you can have a whole roster of high character guys, but if the talent is lacking, then all we're getting is a locker room and team with high morals.

 

How many good morals or high character guys are on KC's roster or the Eagles roster, etc.

 

In my opinion, talent should always supersede everything else, unless the guy is a douche, then KC can have him. 

[GASabresIUFan]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I believe that study was about predicting where guys get drafted, which is different from evaluation.

 

Mocking is different than evaluating. Mocking is where you can use contacts and knowledge about what teams are thinking to build your mock. You mention Walter Football - they are second because Charlie Campbell, as their main guy, has great sources. Mel is still one of the best at that for the same reason - his sources are great. 

Yes and no.  Kiper himself says he watches a ton of film and does grades and evaluations based on what he sees.  He does have great sources and those sources lists are also based on evaluations.  His big board is based on who he thinks are the best players not necessarily based on who will be drafted 1st.  Remember he had Jalen Carter ranked no. 1 on his board and not QBs Young or Stroud.

 

This is from his 2023 Big Board article:

Quote

This is not a mock draft or prediction of where prospects will be drafted. These are my personal rankings. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/34633986/2023-nfl-draft-rankings-mel-kiper-big-board-top-prospects-every-position

[zow2]

37 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

I like Beane, i really do, however, our FO seems hell bent on drafting "character guys" as opposed to "talent guys"......they just love their high character guys for some reason and maybe it's cause they don't have to deal with divas in the locker room........you can have a whole roster of high character guys, but if the talent is lacking, then all we're getting is a locker room and team with high morals.

 

How many good morals or high character guys are on KC's roster or the Eagles roster, etc.

 

In my opinion, talent should always supersede everything else, unless the guy is a douche, then KC can have him. 

 

I'm going to quibble with this a little bit... because i heard Beane in an interview last (spring or summer?) talking about building a roster.  I'm paraphrasing but he said something about, you cannot expect to have a roster full of choir boys,  you have to take a chance on talented guys.  It's a balance.  

[Yobogoya!]

36 minutes ago, zow2 said:

 

I'm going to quibble with this a little bit... because i heard Beane in an interview last (spring or summer?) talking about building a roster.  I'm paraphrasing but he said something about, you cannot expect to have a roster full of choir boys,  you have to take a chance on talented guys.  It's a balance.  

 

He says that, but it's not as if he's put that philosophy into practice all too often. I guess Von would be an example, he had been accused by his gf of assault even before the most recent allegation which he served the suspension for. If she hadn't recanted and given the Bills an out, it would have been interesting to see what they did. 

 

If the Araiza scenario is anything to go by, Beane probably has a higher willingness to try on the risky prospects than McDermott. When discussing the situation, Beane was more taciturn and came off somewhat disappointed his hand was forced in cutting the guy. Whereas McDermott looked physically ill about the subject, a combination of angry and sick and to his stomach. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Yes and no.  Kiper himself says he watches a ton of film and does grades and evaluations based on what he sees.  He does have great sources and those sources lists are also based on evaluations.  His big board is based on who he thinks are the best players not necessarily based on who will be drafted 1st.  Remember he had Jalen Carter ranked no. 1 on his board and not QBs Young or Stroud.

 

This is from his 2023 Big Board article:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/34633986/2023-nfl-draft-rankings-mel-kiper-big-board-top-prospects-every-position

 

You miss my point. I know you were comparing his big board with where Beane took guys not his mock with where Beane took guys. But my point is the study you refer to (if it is one I have seen) said Mel is consistently the most accurate was about mocking. It was not about are Mel's player evaluations generally proven to be more accurate when a guy gets the the pros than anyone else's. 

[GASabresIUFan]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You miss my point. I know you were comparing his big board with where Beane took guys not his mock with where Beane took guys. But my point is the study you refer to (if it is one I have seen) said Mel is consistently the most accurate was about mocking. It was not about are Mel's player evaluations generally proven to be more accurate when a guy gets the the pros than anyone else's. 

Actually the study I looked at evaluated both draft order and player outcomes and Kiper was the best overall and specifically on player outcomes.  

https://www.hogshaven.com/2022/4/1/23004431/which-analysts-are-best-at-predicting-nfl-draft-ouctomes

 

Also the point of my original post was that everyone saying that Beane doesn't know how to draft and other BS, I was illustrating that nothing Beane has done has been from left field including his misses on Ford and Basham.  Elam is the only early pick anyone has a colorable argument shouldn't have been made and even that one, many evaluators had a 1st rd grade.

 

While many people seem to harp on the misses, they seem to ignore that picks like Cook, Rousseau, Torrence, Shakir, Brown etc.. where Beane hit it out of the park.

 

 

Edited February 11 by GASabresIUFan

[SoonerBillsFan]

Just now, GASabresIUFan said:

Actually the study I looked at evaluated both draft order and player outcomes and Kiper was the best overall and specifically on player outcomes.  

https://www.hogshaven.com/2022/4/1/23004431/which-analysts-are-best-at-predicting-nfl-draft-ouctomes

 

 

 

The man Flat said Allen would be a stud and he was laughed at.

[GASabresIUFan]

7 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

The man Flat said Allen would be a stud and he was laughed at.

Yep.  Kiper did the work, as did Beane and his staff, and got it right.  

[Cash]

4 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

The man Flat said Allen would be a stud and he was laughed at.

 

To be fair, he also said Jimmy Clausen would be a stud.  I'm generally pro-Kiper and like his evaluations, but that one was a huge L.

[3rdand12]

20 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Depends...how many superbowls do we win before they are arrested?  😁

BTJ yes, Worthy no.

Disagree Bud , Keep in mind I said both.

 Worthy is that speed guy who can catch and run we don't have. Be a great compliment to Thomas jr Shakir Hollins Samuel

[Buffalo716]

10 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

I like Beane, i really do, however, our FO seems hell bent on drafting "character guys" as opposed to "talent guys"......they just love their high character guys for some reason and maybe it's cause they don't have to deal with divas in the locker room........you can have a whole roster of high character guys, but if the talent is lacking, then all we're getting is a locker room and team with high morals.

 

How many good morals or high character guys are on KC's roster or the Eagles roster, etc.

 

In my opinion, talent should always supersede everything else, unless the guy is a douche, then KC can have him. 

The notion that we have a bunch of choir boys without talent is asinine 

 

You don't get to our record The last 5 years.. our point differential The last 5 years.. our playoff wins The last 5 years.. while being devoid of talent 

 

We may put a high value on character.. it doesn't mean they like bad football players 

 

We might not have a top three talented roster.. we squarely been in the top 6 to 10 for a while.. 

[Chicken Boo]

It's 100% on Beane. 

 

Howie Roseman has been firing on all cylinders.  Both lines, the skill positions, the draft, and free agency.

 

Brandon Beane has no excuse.

Edited February 12 by Chicken Boo

[Jrb1979]

25 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

It's 100% on Beane. 

 

Howie Roseman has been firing on all cylinders.  Both lines, the skill positions, the draft, and free agency.

 

Brandon Beane has no excuse.

I agree he doesn't but I also think the stigma of a blue collar team has some influence.

 

Look at how many are against elite talent of it comes with some character issues. 

[billsfan714]

Vic Fangio--coaching made a tremendous difference in just one year also.

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

It's 100% on Beane. 

 

Howie Roseman has been firing on all cylinders.  Both lines, the skill positions, the draft, and free agency.

 

Brandon Beane has no excuse.

Roseman also benefitted from having multiple picks in the top 20 of several recent drafts. Toss in fleecing the Titans for AJ Brown.

[DeltaDigital]

On 2/10/2025 at 7:34 PM, DrPJax said:

        You’re right , but demand anything you want , as a fan you will never be listened too or Cary any influence , unless you have the $ to speak to that owners or regime. Thats just nfl facts.  Marv said it best, listi to the fans and you’ll be sitting with them.  The reality is 8 years into a regime with an mvp qb, and for 8 years the defense or coaching has failed.  63 SB’s , Bills still with zero and further away as they can’t even get to 1. Bills would have been crushed worse yesterday. This team will not win one with Beane evaluating talent ( had many chances to improve d, dl, rush ) and we watched the eagles dj dismantle an o line while we  never touched Mahomes 2 weeks earlier .   Nothings changed. Eagles , chiefs have won SB’ s while this staff has a new way to falter yearly ( pretty bad you gave your main nemesis a player who caught 2 tds and stretches the field while taking a guy whose college skills aren’t translating to the nfl as one example ).   We are not transforming that dl in a year as we haven’t done it in 8 prior years. 
 

       This d has to change and it has been nothing but an abject failure.  Can’t bring in an outside guy like Fangio as it ruffles our HC authority and he is reluctant to change othert than forced to against the ravens.  Babich is just really a yes man , there has been little outside talent other than Brady brought in as he didn’t challenge mcds role.   He will leave after next year as Beane refuses to value the wr position.   It’s 8years;it is what it is now. They will get to the playoffs most years , but this staff is not visionary enough to shoot for the title.  Beanes said it all , he won’t take a shot as he fears rebuilding should he ever win a title, he is content to just be in the race , he doesn’t have the big balls to really go get the trophy.  
 

       Pretty sad that a great fan base has been reduced to being thrilled , happy , buying merch just because a unicorn qb won mvp by a narrow margin. I’m happy for Allen , but this franchise is 63 years with ZERO TITLES. Watching yesterdays eagles dominence under a less tenured coach, good but not great qb,  over a team that’s ended our season 4 x , proves how far this gm , and coach , and owner  just are outclassed by great gms who actually can recognize talent. Without the Allen pick , this staff would , should have been gone after losing at home to KC or after the 13 sec debacle. No one will take this team as a serious threat until they grasp , you win in the end with dominant line and a d scheme not based on turnovers as your only path. 
 

      Allen is being wasted here , never fully supported with more than a single wr with pro bowl talent. Beane said we needed WRs who catch the ball. Well, Coleman really proved how bills evaluate talent, by hope and not actual production. When it counted , Kincaid dropped yet another crucial pass.  .  The o had success because cook unexpectedly developed along with Davis and Johnson.   No wr came close to that type of production. We needed WRs similar to Andre Reed types, not occasional producers like beebe or aging guys like lofton.   Beane has failed at wr , dl , and oh, wasn’t that a rookie safety with a pick six yesterday , while our bishop had an int stolen from him by a smaller worthy  even having been burned for several explosive plays earlier in the year. Talent e v a l matters in this league. 8 years in , we have ONE all pro, mvp , and what other premiere talent , maybe Dawkins ? 
 

just saying , give me , prove to me , why year 9 will be the outlier that brings home a trophy?  60  plus years of facts would say differently. Other franchise keep improving and we don’t exist in a vacuum as they continue to improve. Bills are always a likeable , nice story , the perpetual underdog in a great humanitarian community.
 

     I Followed them, the Pirates, the Penguins (whenever they started) and the Celtics for 63 years , and only the Bills have consistently never won a title. Hard to fathom. All I’m saying is after all that time , I’ve learned never to believe in any huge miracles concerning the Bills.   Mcd and Beane are not the answer. The Bills still are my favorite sports franchise above every other in any sport, but they are what they are, a team to feel proud to follow from a great community similar to where I grew up , not far from Pittsburgh.
 

    But once again , yesterday’s SB. Proves why there are so many national skeptics ;just like the 4 SB LOSSES proved, until they actually field a legit , physical , defense with talent ( not just statistically top ten or 5 ) ,  even a great qb like Allen or mahomes can be shut down, and this staff has no clue how to do that. There are too many holes to fix in a year. Luckily we have a weak division. They will make the playoffs , but they can’t fix that d in a year. Answer this truthfully, do you really think the 2024 Bills belonged on that field against the Eagles? They never blitzed once , yet had essentially won by halftime shutting down Mahomes to 14 yards passing , yet the Bills gave up close to 10 yards a play while playing the same qb?    
       
       Even as a Bills lifelong fan , I could see we are not close to the same level.   The only way this gets fixed is by bringing in a d coordinator who is an assistant head coach and Mcd has to accept a hands off role , just be a head coach , and I would give Beane one last draft.  From there , if he again can’t “ give up picks” , I would bring in someone to run the draft and Beane can manage contracts , cap issues , etc. Keep the same structure, waste Allen’s career as it will be another drought when he leaves , and PEGULA  will leave unfulfilled especially as it was a dream to get the Lombardi alongside his wonderful wife   At this point , is never winning a SB , being bridesmaids , really any better that dwelling in the basement ; neither one will change your legacy.   You have nothing left to lose.  If teams like the eagles , rams , bucs , etc can find winning staffs , why settle?  

 

     Keep hoping for the 9 th year to be that outlier while changing nothing.  Let’s enjoy the best qb play in Bills history , but it takes more. Tom Brady won 7 , Mahomes already 4/7 I think, at this rate I expect Hurts and Washington’s qb to win one  again prior to Josh.   It’s the ultimate team sport like Siriani said, including coaching and getting talent.   8 years gone , that’s an eternity in today’s NFL W free agency. Yeah, let’s keep running it back!  Faithful , not so hopeful , go Bills. 

 

I agree 1000% on all points. Awesome post 

[LABILLBACKER]

18 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

I like Beane, i really do, however, our FO seems hell bent on drafting "character guys" as opposed to "talent guys"......they just love their high character guys for some reason and maybe it's cause they don't have to deal with divas in the locker room........you can have a whole roster of high character guys, but if the talent is lacking, then all we're getting is a locker room and team with high morals.

 

How many good morals or high character guys are on KC's roster or the Eagles roster, etc.

 

In my opinion, talent should always supersede everything else, unless the guy is a douche, then KC can have him. 

We may never get to a SB but at least God will know we'll have the All-NFL Church team.

[Thrivefourfive]

19 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

I like Beane, i really do, however, our FO seems hell bent on drafting "character guys" as opposed to "talent guys"......they just love their high character guys for some reason and maybe it's cause they don't have to deal with divas in the locker room........you can have a whole roster of high character guys, but if the talent is lacking, then all we're getting is a locker room and team with high morals.

 

How many good morals or high character guys are on KC's roster or the Eagles roster, etc.

 

In my opinion, talent should always supersede everything else, unless the guy is a douche, then KC can have him. 

We’re ready. Passed ready. The locker room culture is established. Josh Allen is its Premier. Let’s roll. Bring in the ballers, JA17 gives these guys the green light now. 
 

Edited February 12 by Thrivefourfive

[GunnerBill]

17 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Actually the study I looked at evaluated both draft order and player outcomes and Kiper was the best overall and specifically on player outcomes.  

https://www.hogshaven.com/2022/4/1/23004431/which-analysts-are-best-at-predicting-nfl-draft-ouctomes

 

Also the point of my original post was that everyone saying that Beane doesn't know how to draft and other BS, I was illustrating that nothing Beane has done has been from left field including his misses on Ford and Basham.  Elam is the only early pick anyone has a colorable argument shouldn't have been made and even that one, many evaluators had a 1st rd grade.

 

While many people seem to harp on the misses, they seem to ignore that picks like Cook, Rousseau, Torrence, Shakir, Brown etc.. where Beane hit it out of the park.

 

 

 

Fair although that is a 3 year sample size only with Kiper. 

 

On the hits out of the park that is sort of my point... they are all good picks that you mention but he needs a star other than Allen and hasnt found one. He hits 1s and 2s not home runs. Draft 8 upcoming. He has to start finding those elite difference makers.