Myles Garrett requests a trade

[NewEra]

33 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

The problem is that even when we did play press man against KC they burnt us.  I posted videos of that on another thread.  We didn't have the personnel to cover those guys.

Yeah-  we were also missing our only good outside corner almost the entire game.  Adding a good corner opposite Benford is a priority.  Douglas was/is too slow and Elam isn’t good enough

[Bockeye]

29 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I think the larger point with regard to the offense was, as @BillsVet stated, that it took a herculean effort to get to those 29 points.  

 

Their expected point total was probably more like 24 or less.......which isn't going to cut it on the road in KC.   Because those 29 included converting 2 of the most harrowing 4th down and goal plays you will ever see.  Cook barely reaching the goal line and Allen squeezing that throw thru to Samuel were conversions of the slimmest margin.   They labored to move the ball in that game and the Ravens game.  It took 4 downs to get 10 yards far too often for an "elite" offense.

 

And the reason, even the Bills stated afterward, is because they can't push the ball downfield.  Too much of their skill talent needs to receive the ball within 10 yards of the LOS to be at their most effective.   Which was the same problem that literally ended their season last year.   Offense, ball in hand with a chance to win it, shut down.

 

 

I agree that at times, it looked like a Herculean effort to score points, but man, those refs.  I think 99% would admit it was a lopsided game in terms of calls.  Having said that, I think if we acquire a stud WR, that is all we need.  Our D needs more - CB, Safety, DT1, and a game changing DE.  

[Cash]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think Rousseau is a decent to good player. The conversation around him, in my opinion, is contract and contract only. You simply cannot pay him $20M a year and I think that’s what he gets. Use him as a chip, because he has some value, to avoid having paying him in the next year. 
 

In terms of Coleman, I’m out. He has a skill that is valuable and you can see the ability after the catch. He caught half of his targets because he’s never open. @GunnerBill said it best that he, “plays to contact.” When the ball is in the air, he isn’t looking for space. He’s looking for contact to shield the defender. He’s boxing out like he did in basketball. There is a time and place for that (ie redzone) but not every throw. IMO, he’s a role player and unlikely to ever be more. The Bills had a desperate need at the top of the WR depth chart and they took a role player after trading down twice. Hopefully he develops because there is some talent but I’m not holding my breath. I’d love to be wrong about him like I was about Hollins.

 

Counterpoint:  Coleman is, what, 21?  And was still split between basketball and football as recently as Michigan State.  I'm not making any guarantees, but it's normal to see significant development at his age and experience level.  It's not automatic - it's up to Keon to actually make that happen.  But it should be an expectation that he'll get better, not a surprise.  I don't see him in any way as a finished product.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

Im all for it, just that we need to have boundary guys that can at least hold coverage for 3 seconds to allow the pass rushers to do their thing

 

If they get Garrett they won't have the resources to upgrade the secondary a ton so they'll have to go back to the almost full-time zone defense they've been successful with in the past. Joe Marino said on one of his podcasts last week that Mahomes got the ball out in an average of 1.77 seconds against man coverage in our game. I think this year we made it a point to play more man because we knew the pass rush wasn't good enough and QBs would just pick our zones apart given enough time to scan the field - this was a huge program on 3rd downs in particular throughout the season. Ideally with Garrett on the field we could afford to be more conservative on the back end and trust that someone will get to the QB before the zone windows materialize.

 

That's the theory anyways. In the AFCCG I still think our biggest problem on the DL in the 1st half was not our pass rush but our contain discipline. That's on coaching, not talent. But with Garrett out there I suppose everything gets that much easier to execute. I'm more open to the idea than I was yesterday but I'm not convinced that that move alone gets us past the Chiefs. I still want a true downfield WR added and the coaching details need to be better.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Cash said:

 

Counterpoint:  Coleman is, what, 21?  And was still split between basketball and football as recently as Michigan State.  I'm not making any guarantees, but it's normal to see significant development at his age and experience level.  It's not automatic - it's up to Keon to actually make that happen.  But it should be an expectation that he'll get better, not a surprise.  I don't see him in any way as a finished product.

Oh I agree that he should improve. We should expect improvement. At the same time, you absolutely shouldn’t be counting on it. The counted on him WAY more than they should have this year. That’s a big reason that they had to get Cooper. He wasn’t good and they needed him to be at the top of the depth chart (or at least playing 80% of the snaps). He wasn’t that guy. They can’t bet on him being that guy this year either. We should hope that he grows not count on it.

[BillsVet]

 

28 minutes ago, eball said:

I get it.  I'm not saying ignore the offense; we need speed.  But if there is ONE move that gets us closer it is a difference-maker on defense.

 

It would be great to have difference makers on both sides, yes.  Going about that in terms of cap, etc. is the tricky part.  But that's for another day. 

[BillsShredder83]

54 minutes ago, Billsbuff said:

I don't think its a "bad look" but it is something that needs tweaked.  I do agree that they were vanilla in certain situations heading into the playoffs, but if I'm watching film, I'm trashing the 2nd half of the Jets game.  I'm looking at drives that matter in the 1st Patriots game, like when the Bills trailed and needed points, etc. throughout each film in the season.  Give me all plays on 3rd down when trail or "needing a score" and see how many times we see mesh, mesh rail, mesh stop, etc.  I would say the percentage is pretty high.

 

When we play the Chiefs in the playoffs and it matters (talking about 3rd downs and 4th downs), I always feel like they know what we are going to do schematically before we do it because we subscribe to the theory that less is more.  And while I love that theory, sometimes we need to do more in the regular season, and then do less (highest percentage type stuff) when it matters most.

Amazing post.  Especially for someone looking like a new comer to the forum (or at least a lurker). Either way welcome, hope to see more posts.

 

We hear about watching tape a lot, but I just realized I didnt know exactly what that means.  Looking at close games, where were losing, 3rd down, especially 2nd half, would certainly help a team narrow down what to look for.  Its simple and makes sense, but ive never heard it or seen it here.  Hell id read a whole thread of stuff like this! I enjoy watching Baldy's breakdowns, Erik over at Cover 1's film room, all-22, but if you dontr know what youre looking for, its hard to take away much. Thanks!  

[GaryPinC]

31 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Oh I agree that he should improve. We should expect improvement. At the same time, you absolutely shouldn’t be counting on it. The counted on him WAY more than they should have this year. That’s a big reason that they had to get Cooper. He wasn’t good and they needed him to be at the top of the depth chart (or at least playing 80% of the snaps). He wasn’t that guy. They can’t bet on him being that guy this year either. We should hope that he grows not count on it.

Yeah, I wonder if Cooper's role would have been bigger if they had sat Coleman more and why they didn't?  I think he'll develop fine but his lack of progression really let us down in the playoffs.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I think the larger point with regard to the offense was, as @BillsVet stated, that it took a herculean effort to get to those 29 points.  

 

Their expected point total was probably more like 24 or less.......which isn't going to cut it on the road in KC.   Because those 29 included converting 2 of the most harrowing 4th down and goal plays you will ever see.  Cook barely reaching the goal line and Allen squeezing that throw thru to Samuel were conversions of the slimmest margin.   They labored to move the ball in that game and the Ravens game.  It took 4 downs to get 10 yards far too often for an "elite" offense.

 

And the reason, even the Bills stated afterward, is because they can't push the ball downfield.  Too much of their skill talent needs to receive the ball within 10 yards of the LOS to be at their most effective.   Which was the same problem that literally ended their season last year.   Offense, ball in hand with a chance to win it, shut down.

 

 

 

Dont get me wrong, we need to add to the WR room a guy who is an outside down field threat.  I am just saying this notion that we should negate addressing the defense, especially for a talent like Garrett for "more offense" isn't going to solve our issues.  We had a much better offense than KC did this year, last year too, yet we still lost those games because their defense made plays at crunch time and ours did not.  

 

We need to get a difference maker on defense more than anything.  Doesn't mean we shouldnt also address WR, and I expect we certainly will.  Where I am pushing back is at the notion we should not do anything significant on defense and just push all our chips in on offense.  

 

And getting back to the Chiefs game...the offense also struggled early because Allen was shaky.  And on the final drive (a final drive where we were behind because of the refs flipping the whole game in the 4th when we were up 1 I will add), Allen had a ball batted down to an open Samuel.  Then on the 4th and 5 Spags confused our coaches and Allen where Allen shifted coverage to the wrong side expecting the pressure to come from the left instead of the right resulting in a hero ball throw to a TE with gimpy knees instead of hitting a wide open Shakir in the flat or getting a clean pass off to Kincaid who was also running wide open.  

 

Its not really fair to just assign all the blame of the loss on not having enough offense, especially to a team that was historically great as an offense this season.  The reality is there were opportunities there that Allen also just missed on or the defense just made a great play or call. 

 

When you surrender an average of 33 points per game in your playoff losses (worst all time in the NFL), you are putting the pressure on Allen and the offense to be perfect every post season game, even in games against tough defenses and legendary DC's.  And Allen and the offense did enough to win this game...when you score 29 against a team with a mediocre offense that hasn't broke 30 even one time in a season missing its best WR, it should almost always be enough.  

 

Now look at Mahomes...he does not have to be great, and in fact, he often isn't and they still win.  Why?  Because he has a defense that can hold when it has to so Mahomes doesn't always have to be great.  A defense that can still give Mahomes one last opportunity at the end of the game to do something great in a game where he or the offense wasn't great.  That is the difference in multiple titles for the Mahomes and Chiefs and none for the Bills.  

 

People always say there is too much being asked of Allen...where that also starts with the defense and the positions and pressure the defense puts on Allen to be perfect.  

 

So...go get Garrett, or make some splash move on defense....and also still go get an outside WR who can be a downfield threat in FA, Trade, or Draft (or even some combo of those).  You don't have to ignore the defense to add to the WR group.  This is what I am pushing back on, putting another patchwork defense out there for the sake of going all in on "more offense".  

Edited 1 hour ago by Alphadawg7

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

We had open guys.  We had drops and Josh made a couple poor decisions.

 

I don't know man. Three of our TD drives featured big plays on downfield passes - 2 completions to Hollins, 1 DPI against Coleman. The other drives were really really tough sledding. Multiple 4th down conversions, Cook making an insane acrobatic play at the goalline, etc. Our regular season game against KC we won because two of our TD drives featured big downfield completions to Cooper. So I don't think we can just hand wave away how important a downfield passing offense is. And that part of our offense was not remotely good enough this year because the personnel wasn't good enough. We made it work with possibly unsustainable efficiency and turnover luck, but it shouldn't need to be that difficult with Allen as the QB. Downfield passing if anything should be the identity of our offense. I still believe that is our best path to a championship.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by HappyDays

[mannc]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know man. Three of our TD drives featured big plays on downfield passes - 2 completions to Hollins, 1 DPI against Coleman. The other drives were really really tough sledding. Multiple 4th down conversions, Cook making an insane acrobatic play at the goalline, etc. Our regular season game against KC we won because two of our TD drives featured big downfield completions to Cooper. I don't think we can just hand wave away how important a downfield passing offense is. That part of our offense was not remotely good enough because the personnel wasn't good enough. We made it work with possibly unsustainable efficiency and turnover luck, but it shouldn't need to be that difficult with Allen as the QB. Downfield passing if amything should be the identity of our offense. I still believe that is our best path to a championship.

 

Not sure if it was luck, but the Bills did not have a single lost fumble by any non-quarterback over the entire 20-game season...an absolutely incredible statistic.

[Magox]

C’mon!   Scoring against the Chiefs is not an easy thing to do, it will always look difficult because IT IS DIFFICULT!

 

Even the first game, every single yard they gained wasn’t easy, they shut down the run and if memory serves me correct the Bills converted their 3rd and 7’s or longer at a high rate.

 

Look at the passes to Amari, he made two critical 3rd down catches which were essentially low percentage go routes.   
 

You are not going to carve up the Chiefs and make it look easy.   
 

No team scored 29 points against the Chiefs this year and the Bills did it twice.  

 

The Bills scored 3 points per drive this year which is one of the highest EVER on record.  

 

The Bills scored over 30 points 13 times this year which is also one of the best ever.

 

The Bills had the combination of int’s and sacks against at a historically low level.

 

The Ravens who were playing probably the best defense in the NFL in the back half of the year hadn’t given up 27 or more points for 10 straight weeks until they played the Bills in the playoffs and we could have scored more than that if they had pressed it some.
 

The Bills offense was a model of consistency when it came to scoring points, they didn’t turn the ball over, give up many negative plays and scored lots of points no matter who they faced.   
 

Some of you guys speak as if Buffalo’s offense was meh and that struggled throughout the year and playoffs when clearly that wasn’t the case.   The Bills offense is the envy of the league, teams would love to have an offense that doesn’t turnover the ball, doesn’t give up sacks who scores points more efficiently than any other team in the league.

 

The Bills should use one of their 3 premium picks and get a field stretching WR who can separate, aside from that they are good to go for 2025.

 

The vast majority of available resources should go to the defense, it’s because of the defense that the Bills aren’t in the Super Bowl.

 

 

Edited 55 minutes ago by Magox

[HappyDays]

12 minutes ago, mannc said:

Not sure if it was luck, but the Bills did not have a single lost fumble by any non-quarterback over the entire 20-game season...an absolutely incredible statistic.

 

Luck might not be the right word but it's likely not sustainable. An offense that struggles with downfield passing is inherently a low margin for error offense. This year the players to their credit didn't commit a lot of errors so it worked. But there were some drives where like a false start on 2nd down totally killed the drive. That shouldn't happen with this QB. I miss the days when we'd be in 3rd and 15 and I would feel incredibly confident we would pick it up. This year we were just dumping it off and playing for field position on those plays. And when you're in that low margin for error world, you leave yourself at the mercy of the officials spotting the ball and that sort of thing. You leave yourself vulnerable to a single drop or penalty killing the drive.

 

We've tried conservative ball control offense in two consecutive playoff runs and it just isn't working. The 13 seconds game for all the negative reputation it has was actually the best chance we've had of overcoming KC. I'd rather try for a redux of that game but this time trust the coaches not to commit an all-time choke job, rather than try to hold KC's offense down in the playoffs which I've come to believe is just not going to happen.

 

Edited 57 minutes ago by HappyDays

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They can’t bet on him being that guy this year either. We should hope that he grows not count on it.

 

Yeah I agree with that. I would go into the offseason assuming that Kincaid and Coleman are both busts. I'm not saying that's likely, but I would make investments under that assumption and then if neither improves we will have protected ourselves, and if one or both of them turns out to be good it is found money.

[Billsbuff]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Amazing post.  Especially for someone looking like a new comer to the forum (or at least a lurker). Either way welcome, hope to see more posts.

 

We hear about watching tape a lot, but I just realized I didnt know exactly what that means.  Looking at close games, where were losing, 3rd down, especially 2nd half, would certainly help a team narrow down what to look for.  Its simple and makes sense, but ive never heard it or seen it here.  Hell id read a whole thread of stuff like this! I enjoy watching Baldy's breakdowns, Erik over at Cover 1's film room, all-22, but if you dontr know what youre looking for, its hard to take away much. Thanks!  

I appreciate it.  Go Bills!

[freddyjj]

2 hours ago, Cash said:

 

Counterpoint:  Coleman is, what, 21?  And was still split between basketball and football as recently as Michigan State.  I'm not making any guarantees, but it's normal to see significant development at his age and experience level.  It's not automatic - it's up to Keon to actually make that happen.  But it should be an expectation that he'll get better, not a surprise.  I don't see him in any way as a finished product.

One wonders if Shakir works with Moulds again in offseason will Coleman go as well.  Believe Moulds worked with Shakir in MS this past offseason on his release, explosiveness and hand fighting.

[BillsVet]

36 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

We've tried conservative ball control offense in two consecutive playoff runs and it just isn't working. The 13 seconds game for all the negative reputation it has was actually the best chance we've had of overcoming KC. I'd rather try for a redux of that game but this time trust the coaches not to commit an all-time choke job, rather than try to hold KC's offense down in the playoffs which I've come to believe is just not going to happen.

 

As you noted previously, those 2 completions to Cooper in the regular season KC game were absolutely paramount to sustaining those drives.  When they played the Championship game, they had to go to Hollins and Shakir...neither of whom I'd trust on those throws.  To their credit they made those catches.  Perhaps Cooper was hurt and not capable, but that points to having another receiver who can be depended on to run intermediate to deeper routes.   

 

Regardless, it's easy to see the benefits of a ball control style with short throws, notably winning time of possession, the turnover battle, and field position.  The cost which remains difficult to quantify is how a more risk-averse offense inhibits play-calling unpredictability. 

 

If Beane and McDermott are truly committed to being open-minded to reviewing their last loss and finding solutions, they'd largely scrap the offensive scheme they went with this year.  It'll be hard because they don't have the WR/TE group right now to run a more explosive offense, but the benefits will out-weigh the costs.