Free Agency Splash target should be DJ Reed

[HappyDays]

I just don't think you can afford to pay two outside CBs, not with an elite QB under contract. Benford is getting an extension for sure. For his running mate I think they will sign a replacement level starter, something like Jonathan Jones from New England, and then draft one to compete with the free agent signing. I wouldn't even mind if they bring Douglas back for a low deal but they would need some competition there for sure.

 

One draft scenario I've warmed up to is Shavon Revel with our 1st pick. Normally the idea of drafting a CB with our 1st pick would appall me, but we have a chance of getting real value there because of his ACL tear. For a team that always drafts at the bottom of the round, one way to cheat the system a bit and still find elite talent is by picking players that drop for non-football reasons. Jeffery Simmons, DK Metcalf, and Jalen Carter are recent players that fit that profile. In Revel you'd get a big athletic CB who normally would be flirting with the top 12. Put him across from Benford and then when we want to play more man we have the players to do it without fear.

[Starr Almighty]

4 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Reed might want to stay in NY and learn from Aaron Glenn.

Only way he can stay in NY is to sign with the Bills 😉

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Magox said:

I am convinced that the biggest weakness we had against the Chiefs was the inability to disguise coverages and take Mahomes off of his first read.
 

He was getting the ball out in 2.29 seconds which means no matter who who the Bills would have had whether it was a Myles Garrett or Max Crosby it wouldn’t have made a lick of difference on those first read throws which was the vast majority of his drop back passes.

 

There are a few reasons for this, one being that the scheme was entirely too predictable and Mahomes knew pre snap exactly where he was going to go.

 

Another reason was personnel issues at CB, Benford has become a decent press man cover corner even though his wheel house is more suited for zone - man match defensive coverage.  When Benford went out, the Bills lost their best press man cover corner and all that was left was Rasul who is below average on man to man coverage and Kair who was utterly rudderless meaning that this severely impacted the Bills ability to blitz and the available aggressive schemes they could dial up.

 

The Bills only blitzed 6 times and Mahomes was 3 for 4 with 3 first downs on those blitzes.

 

Here is an example of how badly Rasul covered one of those plays.

 

 

I am also convinced that McD who at heart loves coaching the DB aspects of the game must have been extremely frustrated this year watching the Bills secondary get sliced up on third downs and not being able to stop top tier passers from throwing on his defense.

 

The Bills very likely will not bring back Kairr nor Douglas and I do not believe they will be satisfied with entrusting a rookie boundary CB to play the critical role of pairing up with Benford.

 

I think they will go for a DB who excels at press man and zone man match defense and for me the big splash signing this FA should be DJ Reed.

 

He is really good at playing man to man, he’s only 28 years old, he has the quickness to hang with KC’s quicker WR’s.   He’s ultra competitive, he’s got that dawg in him, knows the division very well and probably can be had for around $13-15m a year sort of deal.

 

Having him and Benford will allow the defense to scheme up more disguises, have more pressure packages and allow the defense to dictate more on high leverage moments.

 

 

 

I'd be fine with that. Jevon Holland at free safety is my #1 target but I see the argument for DJ Reed too. It makes sense.

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

I just don't think you can afford to pay two outside CBs, not with an elite QB under contract. Benford is getting an extension for sure. For his running mate I think they will sign a replacement level starter, something like Jonathan Jones from New England, and then draft one to compete with the free agent signing. I wouldn't even mind if they bring Douglas back for a low deal but they would need some competition there for sure.

 

One draft scenario I've warmed up to is Shavon Revel with our 1st pick. Normally the idea of drafting a CB with our 1st pick would appall me, but we have a chance of getting real value there because of his ACL tear. For a team that always drafts at the bottom of the round, one way to cheat the system a bit and still find elite talent is by picking players that drop for non-football reasons. Jeffery Simmons, DK Metcalf, and Jalen Carter are recent players that fit that profile. In Revel you'd get a big athletic CB who normally would be flirting with the top 12. Put him across from Benford and then when we want to play more man we have the players to do it without fear.

Ya agreed, it would just be wayyy too much money tied up to the cornerback position IMO.

 

Taron Johnson also getting paid near top end dollar at the nickel position 

[gonzo1105]

15 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Ya agreed, it would just be wayyy too much money tied up to the cornerback position IMO.

 

Taron Johnson also getting paid near top end dollar at the nickel position 

This draft is going to be pretty much all defense. 3 of those picks are going of the Dline, 3 of them are going to the secondary and they will draft a LB, then I can see WR and two BPA picks. They will try to completely retool this defense this offseason. They have started to play a lot more man coverage so I think their going to start focusing on that more and getting personnel for it 

[Big Turk]

they need to replace Douglas...was great his first year but took a major step back this year and was a liability most games...age related decline most likely, only will accelerate next year.

[harmonkillebrew]

I think Douglas really got worse as the year went on.  I'd be surprised if he's brought back, unless there's no market for him.

 

With Benford on a rookie contract we could and should splurge on CB in FA.  Maybe one high end and one solid depth option.  Elam should be cut or traded, just so they aren't tempted to keep him as the primary backup

[JPL7]

1 hour ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

To be fair he doesn't have the cb talent to play man up

 

Beane has to be great this off season. 

 

I get mad at McDermott but you can't get mad at the chef trying to turn hamburger helper into a 5 star meal and then being underwhelmed 

 

Again even Marv had great players outside Kelly 

 

Let's keep it 💯 

 

 

Right. But it seems to be by design. I don’t think McD believes in man cb has a base philosophy. Otherwise they’d have such players by now. 
 

personally, I’m philosophically drawn to man cover 2. To me, it’s the best of both worlds. 

[Doc Brown]

7 hours ago, Magox said:

I don’t think DJ Reed will be $20m but closer to $13-$15m a year.  That you can afford

It just takes one team to overpay him though.  I love the idea but it's always hard bidding for a free agent that's pry the best available at his position.

[BillsFanForever19]

8 hours ago, Magox said:

I am convinced that the biggest weakness we had against the Chiefs was the inability to disguise coverages and take Mahomes off of his first read.
 

He was getting the ball out in 2.29 seconds which means no matter who who the Bills would have had whether it was a Myles Garrett or Max Crosby it wouldn’t have made a lick of difference on those first read throws which was the vast majority of his drop back passes.

 

There are a few reasons for this, one being that the scheme was entirely too predictable and Mahomes knew pre snap exactly where he was going to go.

 

Another reason was personnel issues at CB, Benford has become a decent press man cover corner even though his wheel house is more suited for zone - man match defensive coverage.  When Benford went out, the Bills lost their best press man cover corner and all that was left was Rasul who is below average on man to man coverage and Kair who was utterly rudderless meaning that this severely impacted the Bills ability to blitz and the available aggressive schemes they could dial up.

 

The Bills only blitzed 6 times and Mahomes was 3 for 4 with 3 first downs on those blitzes.

 

Here is an example of how badly Rasul covered one of those plays.

 

 

I am also convinced that McD who at heart loves coaching the DB aspects of the game must have been extremely frustrated this year watching the Bills secondary get sliced up on third downs and not being able to stop top tier passers from throwing on his defense.

 

The Bills very likely will not bring back Kairr nor Douglas and I do not believe they will be satisfied with entrusting a rookie boundary CB to play the critical role of pairing up with Benford.

 

I think they will go for a DB who excels at press man and zone man match defense and for me the big splash signing this FA should be DJ Reed.

 

He is really good at playing man to man, he’s only 28 years old, he has the quickness to hang with KC’s quicker WR’s.   He’s ultra competitive, he’s got that dawg in him, knows the division very well and probably can be had for around $13-15m a year sort of deal.

 

Having him and Benford will allow the defense to scheme up more disguises, have more pressure packages and allow the defense to dictate more on high leverage moments.

 

 

 

Like the convo of signing or trading for a Premier Pass Rusher with Greg Rousseau's contract approaching, i'd find it hard to believe if we paid the cost that DJ Reed is going to cost that they then would also pay the cost that Christian Benford will cost.

 

In a vacuum, the idea of a Benford and Reed combo in 2025 is appealing. But he's going to cost a LOT of money. And when Benford's contract is up after this season, it will again cost a LOT of money to retain him. I don't see them paying 2 CB's top end Corner money at the same time.  

[Magox]

13 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

It just takes one team to overpay him though.  I love the idea but it's always hard bidding for a free agent that's pry the best available at his position.

That is very true, I myself believe that in order to compete against this playoff Chiefs team, you have to have both your boundary guys be able to maintain tight coverage for a minimum of 3 seconds, this allows the defense to utilize various pressure packages which in turn dictates play.   
Right now, the Chiefs are dictating everything and the combo of Reid and Mahomes are able to easily to make plays on their first read.

 

I’m convinced that for the Bills to have any chance at holding the Chiefs below 25 points that they need this and I think they should make a good strong offer, you could offer $60m over 4 years with $45m of it guaranteed.  The higher guaranteed money could allow a slightly lower overall contract.

 

I’ve been thinking about this a good bit and I’m convinced that this is the route.

[Magox]

7 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Like the convo of signing or trading for a Premier Pass Rusher with Greg Rousseau's contract approaching, i'd find it hard to believe if we paid the cost that DJ Reed is going to cost that they then would also pay the cost that Christian Benford will cost.

 

In a vacuum, the idea of a Benford and Reed combo in 2025 is appealing. But he's going to cost a LOT of money. And when Benford's contract is up after this season, it will again cost a LOT of money to retain him. I don't see them paying 2 CB's top end Corner money at the same time.  

I hear ya, I think this is a position where you do pay more than what most teams pay for that position grouping.

 

Right now WR’s are the second highest paid position grouping. It’s very possible Jamar Chase will get $40m a year when he signs.   The guys who defend those guys are CB’s, it makes sense to spend money to defend those guys.

 

Also, spending about $35m a year between both your boundary CB’s is not a matter of having two higher end capable guys out there playing defense, but having guys like that allows your defense a lot of flexibility to do things that the Bills have never had the luxury to do which is blitz a lot more often and have lots of guys play close to the line of scrimmage which can be very effective in disguising coverages.

 

Plus the idea that this will tie up a lot of money in this grouping and handcuff the team I don’t believe is accurate.  The salary cap will go up $10m -$20m this year alone and probably $20-$40m over the next two years.

 

Signing both these guys would have a low cap hit next year and a relatively manageable one two years from now, which would be easily absorbed by the increase in the cap.

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

https://overthecap.com/player/d-j-reed/7027

 

OTC has his 2024 valuation at $6.236M. That seems low. Not sure why. He is coming off a 3/$33M contract. 

He'll get 10M/ yr from somebody. It also wouldn't surprise me to see McB trade up a little in the 1st for Revel.

[Doc Brown]

5 minutes ago, Magox said:

That is very true, I myself believe that in order to compete against this playoff Chiefs team, you have to have both your boundary guys be able to maintain tight coverage for a minimum of 3 seconds, this allows the defense to utilize various pressure packages which in turn dictates play.   
Right now, the Chiefs are dictating everything and the combo of Reid and Mahomes are able to easily to make plays on their first read.

 

I’m convinced that for the Bills to have any chance at holding the Chiefs below 25 points that they need this and I think they should make a good strong offer, you could offer $60m over 4 years with $45m of it guaranteed.  The higher guaranteed money could allow a slightly lower overall contract.

 

I’ve been thinking about this a good bit and I’m convinced that this is the route.

If we committed that much money to him I think we'd have to just let Benford play out his rookie deal and then hope to get a comp pick out of it.  Supplement that with a day one or two pick on a CB this year to become Benford's replacement.  I don't hate the idea but there's this pesky salary cap thing that might prevent it.

[billsfan714]

Were over the cap again next year and we have Cook and Shakir to worry about soon.   Your going to have to sign Cook and Shakir prior to start of next season.  Theyre FAs in 2026.   People need to put away all this dreaming of signing this player or that player, it aint gonna happen.

[Magox]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

If we committed that much money to him I think we'd have to just let Benford play out his rookie deal and then hope to get a comp pick out of it.  Supplement that with a day one or two pick on a CB this year to become Benford's replacement.  I don't hate the idea but there's this pesky salary cap thing that might prevent it.

Extending Rousseau, Benford, Cook, Josh Allen

restructuring Dawkins, Brown

 

releasing Von Miller and Daquan

 

frees up $65m towards the cap next year.   
 

Plus with the expected huge salary cap increases over the next couple years, I think it’s a lot more manageable than people may think.

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

Extending Rousseau, Benford, Cook, Josh Allen

restructuring Dawkins, Brown

 

releasing Von Miller and Daquan

 

frees up $65m towards the cap next year.   
 

Plus with the expected huge salary cap increases over the next couple years, I think it’s a lot more manageable than people may think.

I wouldn't hate it but this regime has never paid for two above average outside CB's.  We'd also have to nail the draft to fix the d-line.

[Magox]

10 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I wouldn't hate it but this regime has never paid for two above average outside CB's.  We'd also have to nail the draft to fix the d-line.

The DE’s

Extend Rousseau, every year he’s been in the pros he’s improved.  This has been his best year rushing the passer and he’s still young at 24 years old.  I think you would see him continue to improve.

Extend Smoot, good serviceable depth

 

Epenesa is solid and improved against the run this year and he with an increased role could get you 6-8 sacks.

 

Solomon popped some promise, I think if he could develop he could be a pass pressure specialist.

 

Then use one of your 3 premium picks at DE and hope we hit on that pick and draft another with one of your mid to late rounders.

 

At the DT spot you have Oliver and hope that Dwayne Carter develops, he was really beginning to come into his own before the injury.

 

Go into FA and get someone like a Calais Campbell who is still playing at a high level specially against the run.   
 

Bring back Phillips who I thought played well and then use one of your three premium picks on a run stuffing DT and draft a second one with a mid to late rounder.

 

I think this is all doable.

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

The DE’s

Extend Rousseau, every year he’s been in the pros he’s improved.  This has been his best year rushing the passer and he’s still young at 24 years old.  I think you would see him continue to improve.

Extend Smoot, good serviceable depth

 

Epenesa is solid and improved against the run this year and he with an increased role could get you 6-8 sacks.

 

Solomon popped some promise, I think if he could develop he could be a pass pressure specialist.

 

Then use one of your 3 premium picks at DE and hope we hit on that pick and draft another with one of your mid to late rounders.

 

At the DT spot you have Oliver and hope that Dwayne Carter develops, he was really beginning to come into his own before the injury.

 

Go into FA and get someone like a Calais Campbell who is still playing at a high level specially against the run.   
 

Bring back Phillips who I thought played well and then use one of your three premium picks on a run stuffing DT and draft a second one with a mid to late rounder.

 

I think this is all doable.

Nice to have some optimism in here to be honest.  I agree with Groot and people seem to be unreasonably down on him because of the KC game where Mahomes was getting the ball out so quick it didn't matter.  The one thing we all know about Beane is he tries to address exactly went wrong in our last playoff game.  Elam and Douglas struggled.  Either paying Benford and drafting a 1st or 2nd round CB wouldn't surprise me.  Signing Reed and extending Benford would be mildly surprising.  I'd be all in on it.  I just think if they try and go that route they're going to get outbid by some bottom feeding team with a lot of cap space willing to give him 18 to 20 million a year.  Plus, that's assuming he doesn't just re-sign with the Jets.

[BillsFanForever19]

6 hours ago, Magox said:

I hear ya, I think this is a position where you do pay more than what most teams pay for that position grouping.

 

Right now WR’s are the second highest paid position grouping. It’s very possible Jamar Chase will get $40m a year when he signs.   The guys who defend those guys are CB’s, it makes sense to spend money to defend those guys.

 

Also, spending about $35m a year between both your boundary CB’s is not a matter of having two higher end capable guys out there playing defense, but having guys like that allows your defense a lot of flexibility to do things that the Bills have never had the luxury to do which is blitz a lot more often and have lots of guys play close to the line of scrimmage which can be very effective in disguising coverages.

 

Plus the idea that this will tie up a lot of money in this grouping and handcuff the team I don’t believe is accurate.  The salary cap will go up $10m -$20m this year alone and probably $20-$40m over the next two years.

 

Signing both these guys would have a low cap hit next year and a relatively manageable one two years from now, which would be easily absorbed by the increase in the cap.

 

The increase in cap means nothing. If we were the only team to get it, sure. But everyone's cap increases. And every team has a capologist that figures what that number is going to be in 1 year or 2 years and figures that into their offers. The cap goes up and then so does the price of players. That's how Free Agents get more and more overpaid and we're constantly beating the records for the highest contract given to a player.

 

You're also forgetting the contract we signed Taron Johnson for. He's entering Year 1 of a 3 year, 30.75m contract. So you're talking about signing a guy that Spotrac has a market value of just under 15m a year on top of the 10+m we're paying Taron Johnson and then probably another 15+m into Benford. That's just too much to be spending on the Cornerback position. It would really have to be one or the other and Benford is who we should be focusing on.

 

And as good as Reed is and while we do need a replacement for Douglas, if we were to make a "splash" - I think 90% of fans would prefer that to be a Wide Receiver or an Edge Rusher before a CB.