Free Agency Splash target should be DJ Reed

[Magox]

I am convinced that the biggest weakness we had against the Chiefs was the inability to disguise coverages and take Mahomes off of his first read.
 

He was getting the ball out in 2.29 seconds which means no matter who who the Bills would have had whether it was a Myles Garrett or Max Crosby it wouldn’t have made a lick of difference on those first read throws which was the vast majority of his drop back passes.

 

There are a few reasons for this, one being that the scheme was entirely too predictable and Mahomes knew pre snap exactly where he was going to go.

 

Another reason was personnel issues at CB, Benford has become a decent press man cover corner even though his wheel house is more suited for zone - man match defensive coverage.  When Benford went out, the Bills lost their best press man cover corner and all that was left was Rasul who is below average on man to man coverage and Kair who was utterly rudderless meaning that this severely impacted the Bills ability to blitz and the available aggressive schemes they could dial up.

 

The Bills only blitzed 6 times and Mahomes was 3 for 4 with 3 first downs on those blitzes.

 

Here is an example of how badly Rasul covered one of those plays.

 

 

I am also convinced that McD who at heart loves coaching the DB aspects of the game must have been extremely frustrated this year watching the Bills secondary get sliced up on third downs and not being able to stop top tier passers from throwing on his defense.

 

The Bills very likely will not bring back Kairr nor Douglas and I do not believe they will be satisfied with entrusting a rookie boundary CB to play the critical role of pairing up with Benford.

 

I think they will go for a DB who excels at press man and zone man match defense and for me the big splash signing this FA should be DJ Reed.

 

He is really good at playing man to man, he’s only 28 years old, he has the quickness to hang with KC’s quicker WR’s.   He’s ultra competitive, he’s got that dawg in him, knows the division very well and probably can be had for around $13-15m a year sort of deal.

 

Having him and Benford will allow the defense to scheme up more disguises, have more pressure packages and allow the defense to dictate more on high leverage moments.

 

 

[NewEra]

I’d love a Benford and Reed combo.  

[Magox]

Here is Kair and Rasul both getting easily cooked because of either how far off they played off the WR’s or when they did play press man were easily defeated.

 

No matter who you have rushing the passer on these plays it wouldn’t have made a difference.

 

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

I like DJ Reed, however whenever I watch Jet games he seems to be a flag magnet. And at terrible times too. 

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I like DJ Reed, however whenever I watch Jet games he seems to be a flag magnet. And at terrible times too. 

He does draw a decent bit of flags but that also speaks to how aggressive he plays WR’s.  If he was elite he would cost $25m a year.  He’s not elite but he is good and effective which is why he can be had for a lot less than $25m a year. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

On QB's that get the ball out fast, you need good man coverage.   Make him hold the ball an extra second.

[NewEra]

23 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I like DJ Reed, however whenever I watch Jet games he seems to be a flag magnet. And at terrible times too. 

Yeah- same.  He’s pretty handsy.  I think he’s pretty good though and a huge upgrade over the rest

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I have said this before, But they need to make a decision as to whether they made a big switch in defensive philosophy. Reed is great, but probably not worth it in our zone heavy defense. 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have said this before, But they need to make a decision as to whether they made a big switch in defensive philosophy. Reed is great, but probably not worth it in our zone heavy defense. 

They have to play more man to man and blitz than they have in the past.  The best defenses are doing this with success more often than in the recent past.

[BillsFan130]

The problem is the contract situation.

 

Benford has one more year left

You can't pay two corners 20 plus mil 

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

The problem is the contract situation.

 

Benford has one more year left

You can't pay two corners 20 plus mil 

I don’t think DJ Reed will be $20m but closer to $13-$15m a year.  That you can afford

[Julio Hopkins]

36 minutes ago, Magox said:

Here is Kair and Rasul both getting easily cooked because of either how far off they played off the WR’s or when they did play press man were easily defeated.

 

No matter who you have rushing the passer on these plays it wouldn’t have made a difference.

 

I'm not sure how this was missed the past year.  Douglas was one of the worst starting corners on the team in recent history.  Probably down there with the starting group Drayton Florence, Reggie Corner, and Ashton Youboty.  

[Coach Tuesday]

Reed might want to stay in NY and learn from Aaron Glenn.

[BillsFan130]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

I don’t think DJ Reed will be $20m but closer to $13-$15m a year.  That you can afford

13-15 seems  low for Reed IMHO. I would be shocked if it isn't at least 17 mil.

 

I think the combination of him and Benford would be around 40 mil

Mcdermott historically pays one corner, and then the 2nd one is a JAG or a draft pick. (EJ Gaines, Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, Benford on a rookie deal etc)

[Julio Hopkins]

13 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have said this before, But they need to make a decision as to whether they made a big switch in defensive philosophy. Reed is great, but probably not worth it in our zone heavy defense. 

 

Totally agree, but I don't see that happening with Mcdermott at the helm.  I also don't see the point in adding a big name defensive tackle in this rotation heavy defensive line.  Ed Oliver only played more than 80% of the defensive snaps twice last year, Chris Jones did twelve times this year.  

[Magox]

Just now, BillsFan130 said:

13-15 seems  low for Reed IMHO. I would be shocked if it isn't at least 17 mil.

 

I think the combination of him and Benford would be around 40 mil

Mcdermott historically pays one corner, and then the 2nd one is a JAG or a draft pick. (EJ Gaines, Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, Benford on a rookie deal etc)

Correct, that is the Bills M.O to pay one and the other be a draft pick or a mid level FA guy.   And it hasn’t worked, I hope they change that.

 

Some team may overpay for Reed and I could see why but I think both he and Benford could sign for around $35-38m a year and the flexibility it would give this defense would make it worth it.

[BillsFan130]

Just now, Magox said:

Correct, that is the Bills M.O to pay one and the other be a draft pick or a mid level FA guy.   And it hasn’t worked, I hope they change that.

 

Some team may overpay for Reed and I could see why but I think both he and Benford could sign for around $35-38m a year and the flexibility it would give this defense would make it worth it.

I get your overall point- Like the bills CB2 in Douglas struggled this year. 
 

I would definitely invest in the position and spend a day two draft pick there.

But having almost 40 mil tied up to two corners, not too mention Taron Johnson having one of the higher nickel salaries, is just too much IMO.

[BuffaloBillyG]

43 minutes ago, Magox said:

He does draw a decent bit of flags but that also speaks to how aggressive he plays WR’s.  If he was elite he would cost $25m a year.  He’s not elite but he is good and effective which is why he can be had for a lot less than $25m a year. 

 

26 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah- same.  He’s pretty handsy.  I think he’s pretty good though and a huge upgrade over the rest

Reed would definitely be on my radar. But so would guys like Charvarius Ward, Carlton Davis, and Asante Samuel. 

 

If I was GM I'd offer them all the same basic contract on the low end of their expected pay scale...and see who takes it.

 

There's also some names for safety help and EDGE I like out there in FA this year...so I don't wanna saddle myself with a large FA CB contract.

[Magox]

Salary cap is expected to go up $10 -$20m next year and with all the new streaming deals and overseas games and added exposure to the NFL, I think you will continue to see hefty increases over the next few years.    
 

Any signings or extensions won’t really be felt on a significant level for 2-3 years from now.

 

The Bills could afford to put $35 m a year on one of the most critical positions in the game and I think more than anything that weakness was exposed vs the Chiefs and Ravens or for that matter throughout the year on third downs.

[The Jokeman]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

 

Reed would definitely be on my radar. But so would guys like Charvarius Ward, Carlton Davis, and Asante Samuel. 

 

If I was GM I'd offer them all the same basic contract on the low end of their expected pay scale...and see who takes it.

 

There's also some names for safety help and EDGE I like out there in FA this year...so I don't wanna saddle myself with a large FA CB contract.

Paulson Adebo from the Saints could be an under the radar signing.