Bills in last 5 playoff losses: Worst PPG allowed OF ALL TIME in the Super Bowl era

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Yes I get that the play was designed as a fake screen to Kincaid then hit Shakir. But the defense didn’t bite. Shakir was a low percentage completion at that point.

 

Apparently you still don't get it because the play was designed to go to Coleman off of the fake screen, not Shakir. Shakir I would think was running an option route as the 2nd progression in case the defense didn't bite. It wasn't a low percentage completion. The seam hole is open if Shakir runs there. Like I said I don't know why he stopped and basically took himself out of the play.

 

You're stretching to find reasons to blame Allen for the final drive. The guy has shown up in these moments again and again throughout his career. But since his teammates don't show up in those moments, he bears all the blame. I expect takes like that from random ESPN analysts. I don't expect it from Bills fans that are paying attention to every play.

[Alphadawg7]

Yet there are people trying to tell me the solution is to not address the defense and instead push all our available chips in on a WR.  We had the 16th best offense in NFL history this season, scored 29 against the stingy Chiefs Defense despite having the Refs steal a scoring drive from us twice in one set of downs, and watched out defense allow the Chiefs to score 32 despite never scoring 30 even once this season while they were without their best WR.  

 

Defense is, and has been, the problem.  Go get Garrett or Crosby so the defense finally has a difference maker.  Then look to address Safety and CB via FA and draft (I would try and sign Holland).  We still need to address WR, make no mistake about it, but maybe we make a FA play for Tee Higgins...or maybe we try and use one of our 2nd's to trade for a proven WR, and if we can't find the right WR via trade or FA, then look to draft one in the 2nd (assuming our first was used to get Garrett or Crosby) or use some picks to move up to get the right guy.  You can still address CB in FA and mid range of the draft where they have had pretty good success finding value both ways.  

[90sBills]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Apparently you still don't get it because the play was designed to go to Coleman off of the fake screen, not Shakir. Shakir I would think was running an option route as the 2nd progression in case the defense didn't bite. It wasn't a low percentage completion. The seam hole is open if Shakir runs there. Like I said I don't know why he stopped and basically took himself out of the play.

 

You're stretching to find reasons to blame Allen for the final drive. The guy has shown up in these moments again and again throughout his career. But since his teammates don't show up in those moments, he bears all the blame. I expect takes like that from random ESPN analysts. I don't expect it from Bills fans that are paying attention to every play.

Geez. I would say you’re missing the point but I don’t think you can see the point. So we can leave it. 

[Shaw66]

18 hours ago, 90sBills said:

He gets too hyped in big games and sometimes that compromise his performance. So in this game he started off the first drive shaky because you can clearly see nerves were affecting him. Romo even mentioned that on the broadcast. So that got the team off to a slow start.

 

Then he settled down and was awesome until that last drive. You can see the pressure on his face. Kincaid was open on the first down that he missed. He ended up overthrowing the middle of the field. That sequence could have been a lot easier. It wouldn’t need to come down to a miracle throw and catch on 4th down.

 

I know he feels the weight of the city and fanbase to deliver. So he tightens up in big pressure situations. But when he presses he’s not his best version. So now it’s back to back year with the opportunity to advance in the playoffs that we couldn’t score. I’m afraid this will be his narrative in the media until he breaks through. 

I think this is generally correct, but I don't put it all on Josh. 

 

I am very much a believer that we can see Josh's comfort level in his eyes.  I can see the anxiety in certain games and certain plays. I don't necessarily believe that it's a big-game thing, although it may be. 

 

I was really excited mid-season, when Josh would come out of the huddle and survey the defense with a look that suggested that he understood everything he was seeing and he understood where the play should go.  I think in both the beginning and the end of the Chiefs game, that look was gone.  It was as though he didn't have confidence in what he was seeing or confidence that the play call would work.  Certainly at the end of the game, he didn't seem like he knew what he should be doing. 

 

I contrast it with Mahomes. His face never shows that lack of confidence.  He sees the defense, knows he good or changes the play or calls timeout.  Either way, he's in charge and he knows what he's doing. 

 

I think in those moments, like the end of the Chiefs game, it's the coaching that's letting him down. I think Allen was finding himself either in plays that didn't fit the defense, or he was looking at a defense he didn't expect or that was unfamiliar.  He just wasn't sure.  

 

And I don't buy the point of the OP.  I think this is more cherrypicked data.  In the first place, Allen is playing an era of pretty high scoring offenses, so when you lose in the playoffs, it's probably because you gave up a lot of points to a high scoring team.  There's no shame in that. Second, as someone pointed out, by changing the number of games, you find a lot of big name QBs with similar data points.  

 

Without going back and studying those games in detail, I know it's fair to say that four or all five of those games were one-score games, and could just as easily have been wins rather than losses if someone had made a play.  Certainly the last two Chiefs games could easily have been wins if Allen hits Shakir and if Kincaid catches the ball. If the Bills had won those five games instead of losing, the fans of the other teams would be nitpicking the data in the same way, and they would be complaining that their defense failed them.  

 

It's pretty simple.  Bills need better coaching and they need players to make plays. 

[MJS]

On 2/1/2025 at 2:41 PM, Mister Defense said:

 

Wow, but where do Chiefs stand as far as points given up per game in their playoff games against the Bills?

 

28.5 per game

 

So, right up there with all time worst defensive performances in NFL history, right?

 

Hard to imagine a team with such a porous defense winning it all, ever.  Must have just gotten lucky, as they likely will become again in a few weeks.

 

Or, maybe both the Chiefs and Bills have two of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game, with almost unstoppable offenses?

 

So true. This is a dumb thread.

[PromoTheRobot]

On 2/1/2025 at 2:55 PM, Logic said:

Can anyone verify if the below Tweet is true?

If it IS true, it is surely THE primary reason that Josh Allen doesn't have a ring yet.

For a defensive minded head coach who relentlessly preaches accountability, self-scouting, and growth mindset, this is just mind numbingly bad. Unforgivable, even.

What needs to happen for this to change? 
 

 

4 of those 5 came against the same team. The Chiefs. Are they good?

[90sBills]

26 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think this is generally correct, but I don't put it all on Josh. 

 

I am very much a believer that we can see Josh's comfort level in his eyes.  I can see the anxiety in certain games and certain plays. I don't necessarily believe that it's a big-game thing, although it may be. 

 

I was really excited mid-season, when Josh would come out of the huddle and survey the defense with a look that suggested that he understood everything he was seeing and he understood where the play should go.  I think in both the beginning and the end of the Chiefs game, that look was gone.  It was as though he didn't have confidence in what he was seeing or confidence that the play call would work.  Certainly at the end of the game, he didn't seem like he knew what he should be doing. 

 

I contrast it with Mahomes. His face never shows that lack of confidence.  He sees the defense, knows he good or changes the play or calls timeout.  Either way, he's in charge and he knows what he's doing. 

 

I think in those moments, like the end of the Chiefs game, it's the coaching that's letting him down. I think Allen was finding himself either in plays that didn't fit the defense, or he was looking at a defense he didn't expect or that was unfamiliar.  He just wasn't sure.  

 

And I don't buy the point of the OP.  I think this is more cherrypicked data.  In the first place, Allen is playing an era of pretty high scoring offenses, so when you lose in the playoffs, it's probably because you gave up a lot of points to a high scoring team.  There's no shame in that. Second, as someone pointed out, by changing the number of games, you find a lot of big name QBs with similar data points.  

 

Without going back and studying those games in detail, I know it's fair to say that four or all five of those games were one-score games, and could just as easily have been wins rather than losses if someone had made a play.  Certainly the last two Chiefs games could easily have been wins if Allen hits Shakir and if Kincaid catches the ball. If the Bills had won those five games instead of losing, the fans of the other teams would be nitpicking the data in the same way, and they would be complaining that their defense failed them.  

 

It's pretty simple.  Bills need better coaching and they need players to make plays. 

Absolutely, Shaw! I saw the same thing this season. That gave me hope that we could finally get over the hump this post season. I don’t really think that going into the year but the teams’s play, and especially Allen’s play, made me a Billiever. 
 

Then he started the AFCCG with that look and I was worried. He rebounded and I thought the worse was over. When the defense made that stop at the end I would’ve bet any amount we were going to the superbowl. Then I saw that look again on that last drive. 
 

Obviously it’s not all on him. I guess my frustration is seeing Mahomes do the things he does, as you alluded to, and wondering there’s no reason why our guy shouldn’t be that as well. Maybe that’s an unfair way to look at it as they’re different personalities. It’s just not about physical traits.

 

Anyway it’s over. We can just keep on rooting. I do firmly believe that the offense has to win these games when the opportunity presents itself. No matter what kind of defense is assembled it’ll get shredded in the playoffs by great teams. 

[Lost]

53 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yet there are people trying to tell me the solution is to not address the defense and instead push all our available chips in on a WR.  We had the 16th best offense in NFL history this season, scored 29 against the stingy Chiefs Defense despite having the Refs steal a scoring drive from us twice in one set of downs, and watched out defense allow the Chiefs to score 32 despite never scoring 30 even once this season while they were without their best WR.  

 

 

Despite this misleading 16th best offense in history stat.    

 

The Bills offense had fewest passing yards since 2019

Bills offense had fewest passing TDs since 2019

Fewest receiving yards from our wideouts since 2018

Most punts since 2019

 

We could haven been even better.   We're an elite receiver from potentially dropping 35-40pts per game.   I don't know a single defensive player that's gonna net us an extra 5pts per game or 5 fewer opponent pts per game.  

 

 

Defense will continue to be an issue no matter how much money and talent you throw at it until we change our defensive scheme and philosophy.  Not sure it's happening under Beane but we'll see.  

[Logic]

For those saying this thread is bogus...has this graph been shown yet?

I mean...

 

 

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, Logic said:

For those saying this thread is bogus...has this graph been shown yet?

I mean...

 

 

What that geaph says is the Bills have been the second beat team in the playoffs and would have several more wins if Mahomes weren't around.  

[CircleTheWagons99]

McD should have been replaced after 13 seconds and the last 2 years prove it, his Defense does not work in the Playoffs and it never changes or will be changed.

[HappyDays]

34 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

I guess my frustration is seeing Mahomes do the things he does, as you alluded to, and wondering there’s no reason why our guy shouldn’t be that as well.

 

Mahomes does it because his teammates make the play with him. Allen's teammates run the wrong route or drop the ball or give up instant pressure. That's what separates their careers since 2021.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

And I don't buy the point of the OP.  I think this is more cherrypicked data.  In the first place, Allen is playing an era of pretty high scoring offenses, so when you lose in the playoffs, it's probably because you gave up a lot of points to a high scoring team.  There's no shame in that. Second, as someone pointed out, by changing the number of games, you find a lot of big name QBs with similar data points.  

 

Without going back and studying those games in detail, I know it's fair to say that four or all five of those games were one-score games, and could just as easily have been wins rather than losses if someone had made a play.  Certainly the last two Chiefs games could easily have been wins if Allen hits Shakir and if Kincaid catches the ball. If the Bills had won those five games instead of losing, the fans of the other teams would be nitpicking the data in the same way, and they would be complaining that their defense failed them.  

 

This just doesn't pass my eye test.  The defense has been horrible in most of these playoff games. The fact that the last 2 Bills losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs came down to the O not delivering at the very end of the game ignores the fact that the D in those games created a constant demand on the offense that proved unsustainable.  That the Offense and by extension Allen must almost be perfect to beat the Chiefs is a fundamental problem of the Bills D.  Which is exasperated by the Bills coaching being defensive minded and the franchise over the last 6 years putting more resources against the defense then the offense.

 

 

[90sBills]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mahomes does it because his teammates make the play with him. Allen's teammates run the wrong route or drop the ball or give up instant pressure. That's what separates their careers since 2021.

Agreed that KC’s overall team steps up more than the Bills, especially in big spots. But to think that’s the only difference is where we disagree. I’ve seen too many improvisations and back breaking runs from Mahomes to just attribute that to his teammates. It’s all good. We all have different perspectives. 

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

I’ve seen too many improvisations and back breaking runs from Mahomes to just attribute that to his teammates.

 

Yeah I saw Allen improvise with two free rushers in his face and make an incredible read and throw. Allen's legacy has been written by his coaches and his teammates.

[Logic]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

What that geaph says is the Bills have been the second beat team in the playoffs and would have several more wins if Mahomes weren't around.  

Respectfully, I think it says more than that.

There seems to be a lot of "hey, Mahomes and the Chiefs are really good, there's no shame in giving up a lot of points to them" going around in this thread.

I don't think the recent actual performance of the Chiefs offense matches their lofty reputation, nor excuses the Bills defense from playing so poorly against them in the playoffs.

In the most recent playoff game, for instance, the Bills allowed the Chiefs to score the most points they had all season long. It was the only time they scored more than 30 points the entire season. Should we be okay with that just because "they're the Chiefs"? 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like I'm seeing a lot of fatalism and resignation in this thread regarding the Chiefs. That they're just going to score lots of points every year, and there's nothing we can do about it. As if we don't have a defensive minded head coach who's been spending years trying to figure out how to stop them. 

Yes, as you say, the coaches need to coach better and the players need to play better. If they do so, wouldn't one of the logical results be better defensive performance? 

So that's the point of this thread. What can the Bills do better from a coaching and execution standpoint to stop this from happening year after year after year? To stop being so absolutely futile in the playoffs defensively? Saying "coach better and play better", well...yeah. Sure. Of course. I suppose I was trying to dig a little deeper than that. 

[90sBills]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah I saw Allen improvise with two free rushers in his face and make an incredible read and throw. Allen's legacy has been written by his coaches and his teammates.

That was a helluva pass that he got off. If Kincaid caught that then everything would be different right now. But it didn’t have to come down to that last difficult play was my whole point. 
 

Cool chat. Cheers. 

[colin]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yet there are people trying to tell me the solution is to not address the defense and instead push all our available chips in on a WR.  We had the 16th best offense in NFL history this season, scored 29 against the stingy Chiefs Defense despite having the Refs steal a scoring drive from us twice in one set of downs, and watched out defense allow the Chiefs to score 32 despite never scoring 30 even once this season while they were without their best WR.  

 

Defense is, and has been, the problem.  Go get Garrett or Crosby so the defense finally has a difference maker.  Then look to address Safety and CB via FA and draft (I would try and sign Holland).  We still need to address WR, make no mistake about it, but maybe we make a FA play for Tee Higgins...or maybe we try and use one of our 2nd's to trade for a proven WR, and if we can't find the right WR via trade or FA, then look to draft one in the 2nd (assuming our first was used to get Garrett or Crosby) or use some picks to move up to get the right guy.  You can still address CB in FA and mid range of the draft where they have had pretty good success finding value both ways.  

 

philosophically i disagree a little bit in that i think building on strength is optimal and making our O even better w big talent is the generally more accessible path, while our D can be improved with just improving overall talent above replacement in a few places.

 

in the interest of what can be done right now, as of today, myles being up for trade basically changes that.  adding a higgins or even DK means more deep passing routes, more targets to the new guy, etc.  i'm all for that, but there is a cost in terms of opportunity to run and throw to other guys.  there is also draft capital, cap, or both for those guys, so it comes down to numbers.  garrett is IMO the best defensive player in the NFL, and potentially the guy to break bruce's record.  i've never thought that about another nfl player till now, outside of some 2 year stretch that looked great or whatever.  he's also a huge physical nasty guy, that's worth a lot on the DL.

 

i think a whirl or two at WR and one of coleman, samuel, or kinkaid stepping up makes us better on offense.  not tee higgins better, but better.  gerrett solves so many problems at once on our d, and means the slightly better depth DT, S, and CB we add in the draft or on the cheap now plays much better with a game wrecker on the field with them. 

 

if benford is healthy, and we have someone better than hamlin, bishop (i think he might get there in his second year) and some of the trash we had at depth DT, if you add garrett we stop KC 4 or 5 times instead of 2, and we have the ball more and on shorter fields and get to like 34 points with kc in the 20s and playing desperation mode to catch up.

 

 

[HappyDays]

Just now, 90sBills said:

That was a helluva pass that he got off. If Kincaid caught that then everything would be different right now. But it didn’t have to come down to that last difficult play was my whole point. 
 

Cool chat. Cheers. 

 

I think you're way off if you don't think that overcoming maybe the greatest dynasty in the history of the league isn't going to come down to one clutch play. You win a championship in moments. The players and coaches around Allen have collectively failed in those moments. If it didn't come on that play, it was going to come later on the drive.

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

This just doesn't pass my eye test.  The defense has been horrible in most of these playoff games. The fact that the last 2 Bills losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs came down to the O not delivering at the very end of the game ignores the fact that the D in those games created a constant demand on the offense that proved unsustainable.  That the Offense and by extension Allen must almost be perfect to beat the Chiefs is a fundamental problem of the Bills D.  Which is exasperated by the Bills coaching being defensive minded and the franchise over the last 6 years putting more resources against the defense then the offense.

 

 

Allen isn't where he is on that graph because the defense was bad.  He is there because most of his playoff losses were against the Chiefs, which is the only team that can score points like the Bills can.