Bills in last 5 playoff losses: Worst PPG allowed OF ALL TIME in the Super Bowl era

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The defense didn't allow KC to score a TD but they did give up a FG.  The necessary stop would have been to force a punt.

 

Can you be more specific about what Allen needs to "learn" to have a "legendary"drive?

 

But yea it triggers me when people throw out that Allen needs to improve and play better for the Bills to advance to a Super Bowl when even the most casual football fan can see what the Bills playoff problem is - the DEFENSE.  This thread correctly calls out the Defensive issues but you seem to have some special knowledge that shifts the cause to Allen. 

 

Allen playing even better and improving in the off season will not catapult the Bills into the Super Bowl in the face of two immutable facts:

 

*  The defense must play significantly better.

 

*  Other players must rise up and play their best football to compliment Allen.

 

 

 

 

 

He gets too hyped in big games and sometimes that compromise his performance. So in this game he started off the first drive shaky because you can clearly see nerves were affecting him. Romo even mentioned that on the broadcast. So that got the team off to a slow start.

 

Then he settled down and was awesome until that last drive. You can see the pressure on his face. Kincaid was open on the first down that he missed. He ended up overthrowing the middle of the field. That sequence could have been a lot easier. It wouldn’t need to come down to a miracle throw and catch on 4th down.

 

I know he feels the weight of the city and fanbase to deliver. So he tightens up in big pressure situations. But when he presses he’s not his best version. So now it’s back to back year with the opportunity to advance in the playoffs that we couldn’t score. I’m afraid this will be his narrative in the media until he breaks through. 

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Kincaid was open on the first down that he missed. He ended up overthrowing the middle of the field.

 

Uh, no. Kincaid was never an option. He was meant to pretend he was catching a screen pass. And Allen didn't airmail the pass, he thought Shakir was going to keep running to open space instead of stopping so he threw to that spot. But I don't blame Shakir either. It was a bad amateur play call and it was DOA when KC didn't bite on the fake.

[GoBills808]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Uh, no. Kincaid was never an option. He was meant to pretend he was catching a screen pass. And Allen didn't airmail the pass, he thought Shakir was going to keep running to open space instead of stopping so he threw to that spot. But I don't blame Shakir either. It was a bad amateur play call and it was DOA when KC didn't bite on the fake.

😂😂'kincaid was open'

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Uh, no. Kincaid was never an option. He was meant to pretend he was catching a screen pass. And Allen didn't airmail the pass, he thought Shakir was going to keep running to open space instead of stopping so he threw to that spot. But I don't blame Shakir either. It was a bad amateur play call and it was DOA when KC didn't bite on the fake.

He threw it over Shakir’s head. There wasn’t an opening if Shakir kept running. Another defender was coming towards Shakir from the other side.
 

Yes, it was initially a fake to Kincaid. But after that the only guy to defend Kincaid was a backup safety about 7 yards away and he was looking towards the middle because that’s where Allen’s eyes were. If Allen went back to Kincaid at that point he could’ve made the catch and gained 3-5 yards just by taking a couple of steps. And if he can beat that safety, 27 I think, it could’ve been more.
 

In any case, it would’ve been a positive play to start that set of downs. The sequence after that would’ve been easier to get the next set of downs. Just rewind that part and you could see it. There’s been a few analysts that have pointed this out as well.

 

Protection was also excellent on that play so he didn’t even have to rush that throw. There was a gap on his right to run if he chooses. Cook was out there and could’ve blocked for him. Either of those cases would’ve gained yardage and set them up better for the next 3 downs. 

[Buffalo Ballin]

The defense is still bad though, guys. Really bad.

 

No one on offense is to blame for that. No one on offense.

 

This comes down to McDermott and Beane.

[Thurman#1]

On 2/2/2025 at 4:55 AM, Logic said:

Can anyone verify if the below Tweet is true?

If it IS true, it is surely THE primary reason that Josh Allen doesn't have a ring yet.

For a defensive minded head coach who relentlessly preaches accountability, self-scouting, and growth mindset, this is just mind numbingly bad. Unforgivable, even.

What needs to happen for this to change? 
 

 

 

 

Not really clear what he means by this.

 

That figure isn't the Bills PPG. Or even the Bills franchise PPG over the last five years. It's the Bills PPG with all of their wins removed, in the last five years.

 

What's it being compared to? One game PPGs? Total franchise PPGs? Total franchise PPGs in the last five years? Total franchise PPGs in the last five years with all wins not included?

 

In any case, not too surprising that looking only at losses produces a bad-looking stat.

[Doc Brown]

9 hours ago, 4th&long said:

I totally agree. If McD comes back next year it will be the same result.  I will not waste another beautiful fall afternoon on the bills. I'm sick of the same old same old. 

I'll never get sick of making deep playoff runs.  My guess is the only way McDermott gets fired is if he doesn't make the playoffs with a healthy Josh Allen and a plethora of injuries to our other starters.  Regardless of what happens in the playoffs.  Other than that, Pegula will want to enter the new stadium with Beane and McDermott in their current roles.  They're currently signed through 2027. 

[Doc Brown]

23 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Not really clear what he means by this.

 

That figure isn't the Bills PPG. Or even the Bills franchise PPG over the last five years. It's the Bills PPG with all of their wins removed, in the last five years.

 

What's it being compared to? One game PPGs? Total franchise PPGs? Total franchise PPGs in the last five years? Total franchise PPGs in the last five years with all wins not included?

 

In any case, not too surprising that looking only at losses produces a bad-looking stat.

He pry just included our last five because it wouldn't work if you included the 22 points given up to Houston in the '19 WC game.  Wouldn't fit his agenda.  This stat I feel is more relevant when looking at elite QB's post 2000.  That Lamar stat is the one that pops up to me and fits the narrative that he has trouble performing under pressure in the biggest games.  I guess McDermott's defense had something to do with that allowing 3 and 25.

 

QB Defense Stats

Allen - 31.3 in his 6 playoff losses
Mahomes - 31.7 PPG in his 3 playoff losses
Lamar - 22.4 PPG in his 5 playoff losses
Burrow - 23 PPG in his 2 playoff losses
Brees - 30 PPG in his 9 playoff losses
Manning - 27 PPG in his 13 playoff losses
Brady - 27.7 PPG in his 13 playoff losses
Rodgers - 33.2 PPG in his 11 playoff losses

[akinko_kd]

9時間前、90SBillsは次のように述べています。

彼は大きなゲームであまりにも誇張され、時には彼のパフォーマンスを妥協します。そのため、このゲームでは、彼は最初のドライブが揺れを始めました。なぜなら、神経が彼に影響を与えているのをはっきりと見ることができるからです。ロモは放送でそれについてさえ言及しました。そのため、チームはスロースタートになりました。

 

それから彼は落ち着き、その最後のドライブまですごかった。あなたは彼の顔に圧力を見ることができます。キンケイドは、彼が逃した最初のダウンで開いていました。彼は最終的にフィールドの中央を打倒しました。そのシーケンスはずっと簡単だったかもしれません。奇跡のスローに降りて、4番目にキャッチする必要はありません。

Is it this play you are talking about?

(If you only want to see the video, click here.)

If Allen later sees Kincaid again, I believe the defender will move his position forward.
And the defender will rush in to tackle from the moment the pass is thrown
Scrimmage is around 42yd, so I think no gain (or loss) is likely

Allen's throw was in hopes that Shakir would go straight.
I don't know if Shakir could have released the defender even if he had gone straight ahead, but the rearmost defender is covering Coleman.
At least it wasn't a dangerous throw of interception.
Pockets are starting to narrow by the time he throws to Shakir, also RT has been breached and he doesn't have much time

 

It looks like Allen's scrambling run was the only way to gain positive yards here.
But there could have been an unprotected DE there.

 

[4th&long]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I'll never get sick of making deep playoff runs.  My guess is the only way McDermott gets fired is if he doesn't make the playoffs with a healthy Josh Allen and a plethora of injuries to our other starters.  Regardless of what happens in the playoffs.  Other than that, Pegula will want to enter the new stadium with Beane and McDermott in their current roles.  They're currently signed through 2027. 

I'm not saying I expect them to go anywhere. Most people are happy to just make the playoffs. 

[Chaos]

On 2/1/2025 at 7:23 PM, GoBills808 said:

Do you understand how ridiculous it is to have most playoff TDs/turnovers AND most playoff TDS/ game and zero super bowl appearances 

The crazy thing is, to my eyes, the offense has actually been held back from its full potential to try to cover up for the flaws in its defense.  

[DrDawkinstein]

QBs in playoff losses since 2000 and his own team’s defense in those losses.

Josh Allen is 2nd in EPA/play (.15) and his defenses are worst in EPA/play allowed (.26) in those games among 30 qualifiers...

 

Edited Monday at 01:20 PM by DrDawkinstein

[Ga boy]

11 hours ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

The defense is still bad though, guys. Really bad.

 

No one on offense is to blame for that. No one on offense.

 

This comes down to McDermott and Beane.

 

11 hours ago, Buffalo Ballin said:

The defense is still bad though, guys. Really bad.

 

No one on offense is to blame for that. No one on offense.

 

This comes down to McDermott and Beane.

I agree that the D has to be better, but the best teams are going to score against any defense that shows up in today’s NFL.  Our offense left a lot of points on the field due to unforced errors.  This is where we’ve gotta get better.  We need to show new wrinkles to advance to SB, and a reliable deep threat.

[colin]

1 hour ago, Ga boy said:

 

I agree that the D has to be better, but the best teams are going to score against any defense that shows up in today’s NFL.  Our offense left a lot of points on the field due to unforced errors.  This is where we’ve gotta get better.  We need to show new wrinkles to advance to SB, and a reliable deep threat.

 

given we keep our brain trust, this is where I am.

 

we can plug some holes on D in the draft, get young cheap fast players and hopefully add wrinkles to the d so it's not so easy to beat.  CB, S, and pass rush all kinda suck, but we aren't likely to get impact guys at all of those positions, especially given our cap.

 

I say just get less terrible on D (3rd down, basically) and throw in DK, Higgins, or whoever to force defenses to stop our run with light boxes and deep coverage (not gonna happen).

[BillsVet]

McBeane typically come out of off-season reviews concluding that running it back schematically with personnel additions is the best course of action.  Did that in 2021, 2022, and 2023 on both sides.  Safe to say the offense changed from 2023 to 2024, but the defense remains what it is.  

 

Someone posted during the season that Belichick noted on a Manning Cast this season that Buffalo's defense is relatively straightforward...just rotates around a defender into their zone coverage or something to that effect.

 

Nor should they be overly focused on only fixing what was wrong last year.  Yeah, safeties, and DL need help, but best force-multiplier is still finding a WR1 who will open up the offense, particularly if Cooper is let go.  And then throwing it to that guy to make defenses cover the entire field which they didn't feature much down the stretch.  It'd help the defense because Buffalo plays best when they're attacking downhill with a lead.  

[Ga boy]

55 minutes ago, colin said:

 

given we keep our brain trust, this is where I am.

 

we can plug some holes on D in the draft, get young cheap fast players and hopefully add wrinkles to the d so it's not so easy to beat.  CB, S, and pass rush all kinda suck, but we aren't likely to get impact guys at all of those positions, especially given our cap.

 

I say just get less terrible on D (3rd down, basically) and throw in DK, Higgins, or whoever to force defenses to stop our run with light boxes and deep coverage (not gonna happen).

Right on!

[90sBills]

6 hours ago, akinko_kd said:

Is it this play you are talking about?

(If you only want to see the video, click here.)

If Allen later sees Kincaid again, I believe the defender will move his position forward.
And the defender will rush in to tackle from the moment the pass is thrown
Scrimmage is around 42yd, so I think no gain (or loss) is likely

Allen's throw was in hopes that Shakir would go straight.
I don't know if Shakir could have released the defender even if he had gone straight ahead, but the rearmost defender is covering Coleman.
At least it wasn't a dangerous throw of interception.
Pockets are starting to narrow by the time he throws to Shakir, also RT has been breached and he doesn't have much time

 

It looks like Allen's scrambling run was the only way to gain positive yards here.
But there could have been an unprotected DE there.

 

The defender on Kincaid had his eyes in the middle of the field where Allen was looking. He’s a good 6-7 yards off Kincaid and drifting away. There’s no way he would react fast enough for tackle with no gain if Allen zipped it back to Kincaid. Plus he’s a db that’s smaller than Kincaid. He’d have giving up a couple yards after contact from the angle he would’ve to take.

 

It’s also not clear in that clip. If you watch the game clip, it’s on the NFL app, there’s an endzone shot of this play. The gap to the right of Allen was wide open. Cook had leaked out through there. Allen’s legs would’ve gotten at least 5 yds if he’d taken off. This is the stuffs that Mahomes does all the time to pick up easy yards. Alen is a better runner than Mahomes. 

 

Yes the pass to Shakir was not dangerous but it was a low percentage shot for a waste of down. That was a must make drive. We needed positive yards to set up the next down. In normal circumstances I think Allen would’ve recognized that immediately and taken off. These do or die situations bring a different kind of pressure. Maybe he was overthinking and not just reacting. 
 

Anyway it’s easy for us fans to hindsight from the couch. We can only hope for a better outcome next time. 

 

[GoBills808]

6 hours ago, akinko_kd said:

Is it this play you are talking about?

(If you only want to see the video, click here.)

If Allen later sees Kincaid again, I believe the defender will move his position forward.
And the defender will rush in to tackle from the moment the pass is thrown
Scrimmage is around 42yd, so I think no gain (or loss) is likely

Allen's throw was in hopes that Shakir would go straight.
I don't know if Shakir could have released the defender even if he had gone straight ahead, but the rearmost defender is covering Coleman.
At least it wasn't a dangerous throw of interception.
Pockets are starting to narrow by the time he throws to Shakir, also RT has been breached and he doesn't have much time

 

It looks like Allen's scrambling run was the only way to gain positive yards here.
But there could have been an unprotected DE there.

 

are we seriously still discussing this play lol

 

Kincaid is not an option. They're selling the fake TE screen and the reads are Coleman's 9/ Shakir's seam/Cook checkdown, the safety takes Coleman so Shakir is the throw provided he continues his route. If he ever gets to Cook underneath it probably gets zero yards.

 

its just a bad call and bad design in a very important spot. you're never going to fool a defense w this to get to a super bowl unless you're playing the buffalo bills

[HappyDays]

42 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

The defender on Kincaid had his eyes in the middle of the field where Allen was looking. He’s a good 6-7 yards off Kincaid and drifting away.

 

Okay do you understand how QB progressions work? This isn't Madden where he's scanning the entire field at once finding the "most open" receiver. His eyes are never coming back to Kincaid, that's patently ridiculous.

 

Allen sees the fake screen didn't work so he moves onto Shakir who should be running a seam against the 2 high coverage. That's the correct read. It's the same route we hit against Baltimore on our first drive for a big gain. Allen even looks off the safety to make him commit to Coleman so the seam hole is wide open. Why Shakir stops running, I have no idea.

 

It's just a bad play call. The idea is to make the defense bite so hard on the fake screen that Coleman breaks wide open. But there's a deep safety on that side of the field so the play call basically relies on that safety biting absurdly hard. Use that play against like the Raiders in week 3. Against Spags in the AFCCG it's laughably bad.

 

On 2nd down pressure gets to Allen almost immediately so he has to throw to Samuel early and the LB tips the pass. Too bad because Samuel's whip route was going to be open. On 3rd down Karlaftis makes a shoestring tackle on Cooper because KC players always make clutch plays in critical moments. On 4th down we know what happened. A Bills player not named Allen didn't make a clutch play in a critical moment. Shocker.

 

It's really weird to look at this sequence and say Allen was "overthinking" because the pressure got to him. I mean what are we doing here?

[90sBills]

18 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay do you understand how QB progressions work? This isn't Madden where he's scanning the entire field at once finding the "most open" receiver. His eyes are never coming back to Kincaid, that's patently ridiculous.

 

Allen sees the fake screen didn't work so he moves onto Shakir who should be running a seam against the 2 high coverage. That's the correct read. It's the same route we hit against Baltimore on our first drive for a big gain. Allen even looks off the safety to make him commit to Coleman so the seam hole is wide open. Why Shakir stops running, I have no idea.

 

It's just a bad play call. The idea is to make the defense bite so hard on the fake screen that Coleman breaks wide open. But there's a deep safety on that side of the field so the play call basically relies on that safety biting absurdly hard. Use that play against like the Raiders in week 3. Against Spags in the AFCCG it's laughably bad.

 

On 2nd down pressure gets to Allen almost immediately so he has to throw to Samuel early and the LB tips the pass. Too bad because Samuel's whip route was going to be open. On 3rd down Karlaftis makes a shoestring tackle on Cooper because KC players always make clutch plays in critical moments. On 4th down we know what happened. A Bills player not named Allen didn't make a clutch play in a critical moment. Shocker.

 

It's really weird to look at this sequence and say Allen was "overthinking" because the pressure got to him. I mean what are we doing here?

No. You’re the only expert here. lol 

 

Yes I get that the play was designed as a fake screen to Kincaid then hit Shakir. But the defense didn’t bite. Shakir was a low percentage completion at that point. That’s where recognition and improvisation needs to happen. At that point there’s taking off with his legs or Kincaid as the outlet. The line was holding up well on that play. There was time to go back to Kincaid. Either option would have resulted in a positive yards play. That was needed at that point. 
 

The second down was just a great play by the defense. That made the situation worse because the first didn’t yield any yards.

 

It was a drive to save the season. They needed to be methodical and efficient. There were opportunities to be that. 
 

You didn’t think Allen was tight there? I thought he was and that prevented him from being his best self by making the best decisions.