Is McD actually compensating for Beane?

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/41040723/2024-nfl-win-rates-top-teams-players-rankings

 

Chris jones was number 1 in pass rush win rate from DTs. I heard a lot from chiefs podcast , and they said the sacks don't come close to telling the story for him , as he was a beast all year 

 

Yea he has played better than the bare sack numbers. Sacks alone are not a great way of evaluating DTs. But it is also fair to say Jones wasn't quite as good as some other years.

[RyanC883]

we have zero elite talent on D.  Huge problem.  We also are still lacking a No 1 WR.  However Bean did not have Cook out on the final drive or continue to call the futile tush push.  Neither are good enough to win a championship

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

That’s very fair as someone who watched a lot of Chiefs games as well. They honestly played like they were taking a significant amount of snaps off across the board. 

 

but interior pass rushers took a real step back as a group in 2024 tbh. No AD. The usual suspects like Jeffrey Simmons, Quinnen Williams, Dexter Lawrence etc were all either on dog ***** defenses or hurt or just saw their level of play drop. 
 

Lawrence was actually pretty good statistically but his team and defense was so bad I kinda get why he didn’t get a nod.

I think they probably were managing minutes for Jones and Kelce (and may have said as much about midway thru season when everyone was predicting their downfall 😂😂)

 

as far as DTs the top guys are pry much set as you say and yes, Jones is among them but there's this whole next tier of guys like Derrick Brown (injured) and Kenny Clark  that are way underrated imo

 

the larger point was when you go up and down our rosters Bills v Chiefs and take everyone's 2024 form into account I don't think you can say one side is clearly superior to the other

[I'mBuff]

19 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

To me, one of the 4 statements has has to be true.  Sure, a relationship exists between these concepts. It could be 60% coaching and 40% talent as an example. But one of the 4 statements has to be the most accurate over the rest. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is good 

 

• Since 2020, 78 players have had a 10 sack season. The only Bills defender to cross that number was Leonard Floyd in 2023.
• From 2020-2023, 168 Pro Bowl selections were made for defensive players. Buffalo had 4 Pro Bowl occurrences good for a 7 way tie for 18th-25th in the league.  This data did not include this year because I didn't have the full data, but it was zero for Buffalo thus year. 
• Former starters who left for Free Agency have gone onto to do very little. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is bad

 

The Bills have the 2nd best EPA on defense in the regular season since 2020.

 

McD is good and the talent is good

 

Since 2020, out of 18 teams that have played in the divisional round or later the Bills EPA ranks 16th. 

 

McD is good and the talent is bad...........

 

To me this is a consideration worth exploring more as it seems to allow for all the the above being true.

 

Bad defenses are not capable of performing as well as we do in the regular season. I know we like to to say we just feast on the lesser teams, which is true, but everybody else seems to struggle feasting at a level we do. Which means it's either coaching or talent that is creating this heightened performance against lesser teams.

 

So then you say ok, what's a logical reason why we would be able to do so well in the regular season and be so bad in the divisional round or later? Some say KC. Well, we also played Baltimore and Cincinnati and it's been pretty ugly against all of them. It wouldn't seem to make sense to say, well, coaching is good in the regular season, but bad in the playoffs. I mean the balance could shift to that more, but how much? If it's good in the regular season can it swing all the way to bad in the playoffs?  I guess it's possible but that seems like a jump in logic.

 

So now we look at the roster. People seem to hold Beane in high regard and each season we hear about this notion of Buffalo Bills defenders being disrespected/Pro Bowl snubbed. Our success has made many posters not really focus on the actual talent or they just assume the talent level is high. Which I think could be a mistake. It could be possible that we have had a bottom 20 defensive roster the entire time McD has been here. One that simply breaks down when facing the higher end teams. If the roster is in fact very bad defensively, it would make sense that coaching could facilitate success in the regular season and potentially have the bottom fall out against the better teams as the talent edge becomes too much. Then sure, any decrease in coaching ability in the regular season vs the playoffs would really accelerate that downtrend. 

 

All this is to say, perhaps it's Beane that should have the warmer seat than McD? 

 

This isn't a fully formed opinion by any stretch. Just something I was kicking around and was curious how other felt?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nicely thought out and really something to think about.

[LABILLBACKER]

20 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Miller had 8 sacks in his first 11 games as a Bills. The injury did him in. It was a risk to sign him yes and it failed and yet we've still been a top 5 team.  

He was 33 years old when we signed him.  That is so unbelievably risky, especially at the cost. Beane probably will never offer a large FA contract to a pass rusher over 30.  That's why it's gotta be Garrett/ Crosby or bust in a trade.

[LABILLBACKER]

20 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

You can field a fringe SB contender with a bad roster if the QB is that good.

 

The Colts proved it going from 1st place SB contender with Peyton Manning.......to 2-14 when he missed the next season........and back to first place and SB contending the season after that when they drafted Andrew Luck with that 1st round pick obtained by going 2-14.  

 

 

Josh does cover alot of warts

[colin]

43 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

He was 33 years old when we signed him.  That is so unbelievably risky, especially at the cost. Beane probably will never offer a large FA contract to a pass rusher over 30.  That's why it's gotta be Garrett/ Crosby or bust in a trade.

 

what's worse to me, he was hurt before and he's a smaller more technical speed and skill guy.  a guy like that loses his knee and speed and he's what we saw out there.

 

calais camble has been old fat and hurt for like 7 years and he's been all pro a couple times in that span.  i remember an old scouting book (i think derived from bellichek's guide he wrote while coaching at navy) that read "power fits all schemes".

 

i poop all over mcd, but looking back at his carolina Ds, he had luke and that other backer, made josh norman 50mm when he didn't have anywhere near top cb talent, and his d turned manning into mush (but cam newton turned into a pumpkin that game).  the real part was short at DT and hardy the kraken (actual psycho and bottom tier human being) just destroying everyone off the edge.

 

maybe swapping an 1st and 2nd for maxx gets us to that level.

[stinky finger]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is true albeit the Colts went 10-6; 2-14; 11-5. 

 

That said they went from Manning to getting Kerry Collins out of retirement and a 6th rounder Curtis Painter (who never played in the NFL again) to Luck. If that Colts team had Fitzpatrick or Tyrod level play in 2011 it would have won 6 or 7 games minimum. They didn't want to win that many. Indeed when they put Orlovsky in the last five games they went 2-3 beating two teams still in the playoff race.

 

You can both not be satisfied with that and not want to blow it up.

 

If the Bills only sign one free agent this offseason it should be Jevon Holland. He would be a huge safety upgrade.

This team needs to step out of its comfort zone and go big. We need a premiere pass rusher and a sticky CB/S. A speedy playmaking WR is also required to take the next step. 

 

Rinse and repeat otherwise. Business as usual ain't good enough. It's pretty obvious.

[ganesh]

On 1/31/2025 at 6:37 PM, julian said:

McDermott is good but not good enough

 

The talent is good but not good enough

You could say the same about many of the teams in the playoffs including the Chiefs. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 1/31/2025 at 8:50 PM, Mikie2times said:

To me, one of the 4 statements has has to be true.  Sure, a relationship exists between these concepts. It could be 60% coaching and 40% talent as an example. But one of the 4 statements has to be the most accurate over the rest. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is good 

 

• Since 2020, 78 players have had a 10 sack season. The only Bills defender to cross that number was Leonard Floyd in 2023.
• From 2020-2023, 168 Pro Bowl selections were made for defensive players. Buffalo had 4 Pro Bowl occurrences good for a 7 way tie for 18th-25th in the league.  This data did not include this year because I didn't have the full data, but it was zero for Buffalo thus year. 
• Former starters who left for Free Agency have gone onto to do very little. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is bad

 

The Bills have the 2nd best EPA on defense in the regular season since 2020.

 

McD is good and the talent is good

 

Since 2020, out of 18 teams that have played in the divisional round or later the Bills EPA ranks 16th. 

 

McD is good and the talent is bad...........

 

To me this is a consideration worth exploring more as it seems to allow for all the the above being true.

 

Bad defenses are not capable of performing as well as we do in the regular season. I know we like to to say we just feast on the lesser teams, which is true, but everybody else seems to struggle feasting at a level we do. Which means it's either coaching or talent that is creating this heightened performance against lesser teams.

 

So then you say ok, what's a logical reason why we would be able to do so well in the regular season and be so bad in the divisional round or later? Some say KC. Well, we also played Baltimore and Cincinnati and it's been pretty ugly against all of them. It wouldn't seem to make sense to say, well, coaching is good in the regular season, but bad in the playoffs. I mean the balance could shift to that more, but how much? If it's good in the regular season can it swing all the way to bad in the playoffs?  I guess it's possible but that seems like a jump in logic.

 

So now we look at the roster. People seem to hold Beane in high regard and each season we hear about this notion of Buffalo Bills defenders being disrespected/Pro Bowl snubbed. Our success has made many posters not really focus on the actual talent or they just assume the talent level is high. Which I think could be a mistake. It could be possible that we have had a bottom 20 defensive roster the entire time McD has been here. One that simply breaks down when facing the higher end teams. If the roster is in fact very bad defensively, it would make sense that coaching could facilitate success in the regular season and potentially have the bottom fall out against the better teams as the talent edge becomes too much. Then sure, any decrease in coaching ability in the regular season vs the playoffs would really accelerate that downtrend. 

 

All this is to say, perhaps it's Beane that should have the warmer seat than McD? 

 

This isn't a fully formed opinion by any stretch. Just something I was kicking around and was curious how other felt?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Players play and coaches coach. Beane can’t survive on the Josh Allen pick forever.

[julian]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

You could say the same about many of the teams in the playoffs including the Chiefs. 

I would tend to agree that you could say this about virtually every team outside of KC, who’s proven track record certainly demonstrates they definitely have a good enough HC and good enough players.

 

McDermott and the Bills roster has a much different track record.

[Capco]

18 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I think it’s somewhat more complicated (as it almost always is).

 

Beane hasn’t hit enough home runs for sure.  But part of that is because they tend to take an insecure approach toward player acquisition where they prioritize football character over other traits - such as talent and speed. They draft and sign players as though they’re not confident in their ability to fully coach them up - high floor/lower ceiling.  Mack Hollins, Taiwan Jones, it’s fine to have a few guys like this but the Bills under this regime seem addicted to them - they overrate the “coach on the field” quality.  Rightly or wrongly George Pickens was off their board.  They don’t draft guys like that (or at least grade them much lower).  McD has shown he can coach players up, they’ve got a great leadership structure and a cohesive locker room - the time to take some risks on talent is long overdue IMO and that’s as much a McDermott insecurity thing as it is Beane’s crappy player evals.

I thought this approach made sense early on in McDermott's tenure.  Build a foundation of Chris Kelsay's (lol) and establish a team-oriented environment for your eventual young franchise QB to grow in.

I also thought the second half of that approach would be to start taking some shots on high ceiling athletic specimens once the the foundation was built.  The McDuffie/Elam debacle seemed to fit that bill in 2022, but when that didn't pan out I think McDermott fell back to prioritizing football character.

That's not to say that the GM and HC being on the same page isn't essential, and that's the situation the Bills are in.  But to my eyes, Beane is doing his job on the draft capital front, whereas the spending of that draft capital is hampered by McDermott's vision.  

Random aside, but in my Madden franchises I always try to draft for potential over day-1 starter material.  I'll gladly draft a strong 6'3" WR with 4.4 speed and below average Awareness and Catching, because I can coach those latter attributes up over time.  You simply can't manifest raw athletic ability out of thin air in a 5'10" WR with 4.6 speed, no matter how good his head and hands are.

At the end of the day, the bigger, stronger, and faster teams usually overmatch the rest.  

[ClosetFan]

On 1/31/2025 at 9:18 PM, Wizard said:

Answer:

 

1. The Bills have a top 2 QB that covers a lot of weaknesses 

 

2. We finally have an above average running game

 

3. Consistency with our OL coupled with investing in it and a lack of injuries has given Buffalo a solid offensive line.

 

4. The Bills are an opportunistic defense. The coaches maximize the CB/Safety talent, but as a whole, there is not a lot of talent.

 

5. We have pretty good LB's, but the undersized 2 LB scheme does not usually help our pash rush, run defense, or pass coverage as much as we need.

 

6. The front office has generally drafted poorly on the DL, or in their developing, trading, or FA the last 7 years.

 

7. The Bills have done a  bad job in maximizing the WR room. Sure, Diggs was great but a headcase. Shakir was a hit. Cooper and Samuel significantly underperformed thus far, and Coleman has potential but so far is umproven.

 

8. Beane and McDermott get too much credit for the Bills overall success of wins. That belongs to Allen's talent, the OL, and finally a running game, and a division that gives us 4-5 wins fair easily. Remember, McDermott is the defensive guy.

 

9. Beane and McDermott do not get enough credit for improving the culture, consistency, and continuity of Buffalo becoming a playoff caliber/above average team.

 

10. Andy had an extra week to prepare for the Bills

 

11. Andy got to play a home game with most of his players healthy

[Coach Tuesday]

4 hours ago, Capco said:

I thought this approach made sense early on in McDermott's tenure.  Build a foundation of Chris Kelsay's (lol) and establish a team-oriented environment for your eventual young franchise QB to grow in.

I also thought the second half of that approach would be to start taking some shots on high ceiling athletic specimens once the the foundation was built.  The McDuffie/Elam debacle seemed to fit that bill in 2022, but when that didn't pan out I think McDermott fell back to prioritizing football character.

That's not to say that the GM and HC being on the same page isn't essential, and that's the situation the Bills are in.  But to my eyes, Beane is doing his job on the draft capital front, whereas the spending of that draft capital is hampered by McDermott's vision.  

Random aside, but in my Madden franchises I always try to draft for potential over day-1 starter material.  I'll gladly draft a strong 6'3" WR with 4.4 speed and below average Awareness and Catching, because I can coach those latter attributes up over time.  You simply can't manifest raw athletic ability out of thin air in a 5'10" WR with 4.6 speed, no matter how good his head and hands are.

At the end of the day, the bigger, stronger, and faster teams usually overmatch the rest.  

Elam was in many ways more of the same.  Yes he was a projection but he was considered to have a high football character coming from a football family.  Similar to his brother who was also a first round pick who missed (and similar to the Edmunds brothers),  Kair Elam was just a pick who didn’t pan out.  He still might if he regains confidence.

[harmonkillebrew]

In terms of what is keeping us from getting over the hump and beating the Chiefs in the playoffs - it's both.

 

Beane could have done a better job identifying and recruiting/drafting top gamebreaking talent - like at DE (Von was a risk given his age and a big swing and a miss, as was dropping 3 top picks on underwhelming DEs). But McDermott, as good as he is at coaching up players, doesn't have the killer instinct to win it all, nor do his young coordinators which he handpicked and were clearly outclassed this last KC game.

 

They still have the ability to turn it around though.  But might need to go against their tendencies. You've already seen McD getting more aggressive on 4th down and maybe Beane goes and gets a #1 WR after having downplayed it last offseason

[stinky finger]

3 hours ago, ClosetFan said:

 

10. Andy had an extra week to prepare for the Bills

 

11. Andy got to play a home game with most of his players healthy

These are a byproduct of not constructing a good enough roster to combat KC. 

[Strethor]

This season is McDermott over performing and Beane underperforming. This is the first year of a partial rebuild, one or two S tier picks by Beane can have ripple effects on our successful future. In past years I had total confidence  

[billsfan714]

A few things I think Beane has gotten wrong on is some of his signings are terrible.   See Von, you dont give that kind of money to a guy at his age.   The Dawson Knox contract is just terrible, especially when it was signed going into the draft where we selected Kincaid in round 1.  I think he's been way to loose with picks trading away 4th rounders to take Elam and Kincaid, and the Kincaid draft was a super deep TE draft.   I believe giving up a 3rd for half a season or so of Cooper was idiotic.   I was talking to a friend before the season started and told him this team has to get younger and cheaper.   Having some of those picks back would be depth and guys who will be here 4 years on low salaries.   The 2 4s he traded away moving up and the 3rd for Cooper could have been depth in the secondary.  Look at how KC retooled that secondary and number of rookies they started a few years back.  Its disappointing that after having 70 million in dead money this year to find out were over for next year.   Yeah I know contracts can be restructured but in most cases you're just paying the piper a year or two later.

[finn]

17 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Josh does cover alot of warts

Right. The better question might be, "Is Allen actually compensating for McDermott and Beane?" You can give McD credit for building a team culture, but it's hard to deny he's been outcoached in the playoffs every year, consistently one step behind his peers. And you can give Beane for finding late-round and free agent gems, but the overall talent on this team is below average, outside of the supernova at quarterback. 

 

Sometimes the truth is so blindingly obvious we don't see it. Allen IS this team. Without him (i.e., with a Tua type at QB), they'd have a top-ten pick in the draft this year. I suspect his teammates know this. 

[frostbitmic]

 The Bills are the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league, nobody is covering for anybody. McDermott just can't beat the guy who fired him in a post season game. Reid and his coaches know what McD's Defense is going to do and if they don't, they make adjustments.