Is McD actually compensating for Beane?

[SinceThe70s]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I wasn't commenting on whether it was positive or negative, just that the personnel and resultant schemes are a reflection of the HC

 

Where I might disagree is that regardless of personnel, Van Noy's comment suggests he had come to expect a more aggressive offense. This assumes that the reflection of the HC implies a conservative approach.

[Dablitzkrieg]

31 minutes ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

Thank you for your thoughtful analysis. 
 

I think you’re on to something. 
 

Regarding picking talent, we haven’t had anyone close to Polian since he was pushed out. 
 

This has been my biggest gripe for nearly 30 years. 
 

Every year I scout the top 60 players or so and, when we are on the clock, I make my pick. Too often my picks have turned out better than the Bills…

 

Bills: Donte Whitner 

Me: Haloti Ngata

 

Bills: Aaron Maybin

Me: Clay Matthew’s Jr.

 

Bills: Josh Allen

Me: Lamar Jackson

(Beane was right)

 

Bills: Elam

Me: Tarik Woolen

 

Bills: Groot

Me: Owusu-Koramoah

(Beane was right)

 

Bills: Trade with Chiefs

Me: Xavier Worthy

Me: Ladd McConky (after trade down)

 

So obviously my picks don’t always hit, and thank God we have Josh, but damn… Kind of disheartening when, me, a casual fan is arguably making better picks than the team. 
 

I have felt for years that the lack of quality drafting, especially in the high rounds, has often been a problem.

You are great evaluation of talent.   Who do you like this year?

[Saint Doug]

I would love for people to run the numbers for postseason only. With Josh as QB, what players and coaches do in the regular season doesn’t really matter. How do they respond in the game of their lives?

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

Where I might disagree is that regardless of personnel, Van Noy's comment suggests he had come to expect a more aggressive offense. This assumes that the reflection of the HC implies a conservative approach.

I'd suggest he hasn't been paying close enough attention then 

 

We've been transitioning to a ball control offense since they canned Dorsey. I'm assuming next season they lean in even further, accomplish less offensively, and then decide to lean back into a more Allen centric model in 2026

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I'd suggest he hasn't been paying close enough attention then 

 

We've been transitioning to a ball control offense since they canned Dorsey. I'm assuming next season they lean in even further, accomplish less offensively, and then decide to lean back into a more Allen centric model in 2026

Same thing that maybe Greg Russo should have been paying attention to LOL 

 

The Kansas City Chiefs have had the same play calls on tape for three postseasons 

 

All the rollouts.. all the misdirection... All the pockets shifted right it's all on tape 

 

So when Greg says I haven't seen it he's just lying through his teeth because he took the inside route and got washed

[NORWOODS FOOT]

7 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

You are great evaluation of talent.   Who do you like this year?

Hey, I’ll definitely chime in closer to draft day. I haven’t spent as much time on analyzing players this year because I’ve dedicated myself to learning to trade Forex (turns out it’s complicated! Haha).

 

But I probably can’t help but spend some time doing it as the year goes on! Stay tuned!

[Comebackkid]

i think on Defense when u get into the playoffs and teams step it up a notch and you have higher level players the Bills dont have 

the horses to keep up.   During the season we can scheme avg players on  the D to at least hold the fort  while the offense takes over.

 

get into the post season against better Ds, where it puts the pressure on our D and  the scheme just cant bridge the talent gap.

 

The D is only good becuase the sum of the parts is greater than each individual player.   In the playoffs individual players need to step up

and they cant do that.   Plus we always seem to have injuries and those injuries hit our best players which in turn effect the entire D.

 

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Same thing that maybe Greg Russo should have been paying attention to LOL 

 

The Kansas City Chiefs have had the same play calls on tape for three postseasons 

 

All the rollouts.. all the misdirection... All the pockets shifted right it's all on tape 

 

So when Greg says I haven't seen it he's just lying through his teeth because he took the inside route and got washed

Your contention is their stuff was all on tape, nothing new (despite Rousseau's comments)...and yet they still shredded us

 

That doesn't bode well for future encounters

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Your contention is their stuff was all on tape, nothing new (despite Rousseau's comments)...and yet they still shredded us

 

That doesn't bode well for future encounters

Or they need to worry more about mahomes's legs in the postseason which would be a starter for me 

 

He's not going to throw for 450 yd in the postseason versus us.. you need to take away those 45 50 rushing yards that moves the chains 

 

That's the one thing we've never been able to stop Patrick mahomes legs

 

But we can limit Lamar Jackson.. it comes down to the players not thinking he can beat them with their legs when he's one of the best improvisers in NFL history

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Or they need to worry more about mahomes's legs in the postseason which would be a starter for me 

 

He's not going to throw for 450 yd in the postseason versus us.. you need to take away those 45 50 rushing yards that moves the chains 

 

That's the one thing we've never been able to stop Patrick mahomes legs

 

But we can limit Lamar Jackson.. it comes down to the players not thinking he can beat them with their legs when he's one of the best improvisers in NFL history

Ok. I would massively disagree that Mahomes' running is the big worry. But that isn't what I was talking about wrt the OP

 

To stay on topic, I'd say we looked both small AND slow on defense vs KC and that shouldn't really be possible

[BuffaloRebound]

Beane gets Mcdermott pretty much exactly what he wants on defense within the confines of the cap.  We spent like crazy on the defense when Josh was still on his rookie deal.  And those defenses still crumbled and provided no resistance when it counted.  Back then, it was Daboll’s fault because the offense didn’t run the ball enough and control the clock for the defense.  The real problem is McDermott prefers undersized players who can be in the right spot consistently instead of more physical players who can lock their man up or whoop the guy trying to block them.  That philosophy works over a 16/17 game regular season especially when you have an elite offense.  It has not worked in the playoffs against the best teams.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

McDermott is going to have his teams prepared and he’s going to put his players in position to make plays.

 

What he’s not going to do is out scheme the opponent or surprise the opponent. He’s not a tactical head coach. This is likely where he falls short vs the Chiefs in the playoffs.

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I didn't say we have zero talent 

 

We don't have supreme talents 

 

We don't have two or three Hall of Fame players who are in their prime 

 

We have more talent than 80% of the league... But we don't have a lot of super high end talent talent 

 

We have a lot of good to really good

 

And I'm pretty sure if you read what I said I'm saying Sean McDermott is a really good coach who maximizes what we have not that he's doing less with more 

 

He's a world-class developer who isn't getting enough to develop

 

 

 

 

I was referring to others acting that way.

[JohnNord]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

To me, one of the 4 statements has has to be true.  Sure, a relationship exists between these concepts. It could be 60% coaching and 40% talent as an example. But one of the 4 statements has to be the most accurate over the rest. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is good 

 

• Since 2020, 78 players have had a 10 sack season. The only Bills defender to cross that number was Leonard Floyd in 2023.
• From 2020-2023, 168 Pro Bowl selections were made for defensive players. Buffalo had 4 Pro Bowl occurrences good for a 7 way tie for 18th-25th in the league.  This data did not include this year because I didn't have the full data, but it was zero for Buffalo thus year. 
• Former starters who left for Free Agency have gone onto to do very little. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is bad

 

The Bills have the 2nd best EPA on defense in the regular season since 2020.

 

McD is good and the talent is good

 

Since 2020, out of 18 teams that have played in the divisional round or later the Bills EPA ranks 16th. 

 

McD is good and the talent is bad...........

 

To me this is a consideration worth exploring more as it seems to allow for all the the above being true.

 

Bad defenses are not capable of performing as well as we do in the regular season. I know we like to to say we just feast on the lesser teams, which is true, but everybody else seems to struggle feasting at a level we do. Which means it's either coaching or talent that is creating this heightened performance against lesser teams.

 

So then you say ok, what's a logical reason why we would be able to do so well in the regular season and be so bad in the divisional round or later? Some say KC. Well, we also played Baltimore and Cincinnati and it's been pretty ugly against all of them. It wouldn't seem to make sense to say, well, coaching is good in the regular season, but bad in the playoffs. I mean the balance could shift to that more, but how much? If it's good in the regular season can it swing all the way to bad in the playoffs?  I guess it's possible but that seems like a jump in logic.

 

So now we look at the roster. People seem to hold Beane in high regard and each season we hear about this notion of Buffalo Bills defenders being disrespected/Pro Bowl snubbed. Our success has made many posters not really focus on the actual talent or they just assume the talent level is high. Which I think could be a mistake. It could be possible that we have had a bottom 20 defensive roster the entire time McD has been here. One that simply breaks down when facing the higher end teams. If the roster is in fact very bad defensively, it would make sense that coaching could facilitate success in the regular season and potentially have the bottom fall out against the better teams as the talent edge becomes too much. Then sure, any decrease in coaching ability in the regular season vs the playoffs would really accelerate that downtrend. 

 

All this is to say, perhaps it's Beane that should have the warmer seat than McD? 

 

This isn't a fully formed opinion by any stretch. Just something I was kicking around and was curious how other felt?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s the age old “chicken or egg” argument when it comes to coaching/GM’s we’ve had many times here in Buffalo.  It’s really hard to know who was more responsible.  
 

I think in the case of Beane and McDermott there’s a high degree of collaboration and a shared vision.   I can’t see Beane drafting a player that McDermott wasn’t comfortable with, like Doug Whaley did Sammy Watkins in 2014.  
 

I tend to see how much success players have once they leave Buffalo.  For the most part, most of the defensive talent that signed contracts elsewhere weren’t much better than they were in Buffalo.

 

Better:

Harrison Phillips 

Poona Ford

Tim Settle

Same:

Tremaine Edmunds

Leonard Floyd

Tyrell Dodson

Quentin Jefferson

Jerry Hughes

Dean Marlowe

Levi Wallace

Dane Jackson

Dean Marlowe

 

Worse:

Trent Murphy

Mario Addison

Boogie Basham

Star Lotulelei

Vernon Butler

Jordan Poyer

Tre White

 

Ironically, the three players who performed better in their post-Bills career were all DT’s - a position of great need.   The only mistake IMO was letting Harrison Phillips walk.  Ford and Settle had good seasons this year but there’s plenty of really bad Bills tape from 2024.  You can understand why they weren’t brought back.

 

If I could point to a flaw it might have been taking swings on veteran defensive players which often saw poor returns and forced them to address the same positions in the draft which also failed.  So it’s like throwing good money after bad.  
 

I definitely think there are issues with roster construction and asset allocation but it’s hard to connect this to Beane and not McDermott.  I feel both are involved.  

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

I think the focus has been turned to Beane.

 

He was heavily criticized for not finding a WR1 last season after dealing Diggs.   Not having that quality in the intermediate and deep passing game directly caused their exit from the playoffs for the second year in a row.   He's not found enough difference makers on either side of the ball in free agency or the draft.

 

I don't disagree that this is a big offseason for Beane, this team is on the door step, but teams like the Chiefs are not going anywhere and will have a chance to also get better this offseason, and will also get their best WR back next year.  IMHO, he needs to make a big move or hit big on a player in the draft.  

 

And sure, people criticized Beane this offseason over the WR room...but then what happened?  The Bills offense went out and was historically great this year...16th best offense in the history of the NFL despite the offense coasting for entire 4th quarters, even some halves and taking the final week off.  It set numerous records both as a team and multiple individual records. 

 

As far as to why we lost...lets be reasonable here...we scored 29 against a team who had not broken 30 on offense the entire season, it should have been enough.  And we did it against a tough D on the road in a hostile environment with one of the NFL's all time best DC's.  And we can take that further by citing the refs directly stole more points from us and probably the game when they took away a first down twice within 2 plays to swing the whole game when we were up 1 and already in FG range with a chance to go up 2 scores.  Instead, the refs stole the spot twice (Kincaid on 2nd down and Allen on 4th) and the game flipped to us down 7 when KC drove to score and convert a 2pt conversion.  

 

NOTE:  To be fair, its also on our coaching staff for not challenging the Kincaid spot that was good by over a half yard where they instead rushed a bastardized tush push on 3rd down.  

 

22 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

  By contrast, I think McD upped his personal stock with his coaching job this season.   He got some heat for the ending of the Houston game but hit numerous HR's with big decisions in other games.

The Houston ending turned out to be more Josh going rogue, and its why McD was livid on the sidelines when Allen broke protocol and tried going to deep to Hollins because as Josh put it, he thought he saw something there pre snap.  I actually am way more pissed about us not challenging the Kincaid spot against KC, that mistake very likely cost us the game.  But yeah, his stock increased by exceeding this season and having the whole nation furious at how bad we got F***ed by the refs on that game swinging missed first down (twice).  And they also screwed us on spots for first downs on a Cooper play and Cook play too, we just ended up converting still so its not being talked about.

 

The way I see it, the 4 glaring needs are WR, DL, S, and CB.  I want to see him go get a proven difference maker on the DL via trade like Crosby or Garrett, sign someone like Holland at S, and then if we don't resign Cooper (I personally don't think he is the answer) we could look to make a move for a WR in FA or Trade, and if not address WR in the draft early while looking at the midrounds to add a CB (or 2).  

 

Perfect world for me is trade our first and a pick next year for Crosby then try and pry DK from Seattle for one of our 2nds.  Probably a pipe dream, but that would be my dream scenario.  

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, NORWOODS FOOT said:

Thank you for your thoughtful analysis. 
 

I think you’re on to something. 
 

Regarding picking talent, we haven’t had anyone close to Polian since he was pushed out. 
 

This has been my biggest gripe for nearly 30 years. 
 

Every year I scout the top 60 players or so and, when we are on the clock, I make my pick. Too often my picks have turned out better than the Bills…

 

Bills: Donte Whitner 

Me: Haloti Ngata

 

Bills: Aaron Maybin

Me: Clay Matthew’s Jr.

 

Bills: Josh Allen

Me: Lamar Jackson

(Beane was right)

 

Bills: Elam

Me: Tarik Woolen

 

Bills: Groot

Me: Owusu-Koramoah

(Beane was right)

 

Bills: Trade with Chiefs

Me: Xavier Worthy

Me: Ladd McConky (after trade down)

 

So obviously my picks don’t always hit, and thank God we have Josh, but damn… Kind of disheartening when, me, a casual fan is arguably making better picks than the team. 
 

I have felt for years that the lack of quality drafting, especially in the high rounds, has often been a problem.

You could be Beane’s assistant.  I hear that the team scouts Two Bills Drive for talent

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

For me if we're comparing total actual wins (coaching) vs total expected wins based on roster talent level (GM) I think the Bills look something like this:

 

Year	expected wins	actual wins
2017	7	9
2018	3	6
2019	10	10
2020	13	13
2021	13	11
2022	13	13
2023	12	11
2024	11	13
Total	82	86

 

Expected wins of 13 in 2020-2022 is pretty crazy, but when you have  top 2 QB on a rookie contract I think that's a reasonable number.

 

As far as postseason results go I think 2024 is the only year McD  exceeded expectations. However, beating the Ravens in a 50/50 type game where they committed multiple unforced errors is hardly a ringing endorsement 

[beebe]

Bills point spreads in all their playoff games since 2020:

 

Bills +1 at Chiefs

Bills +1 vs Ravens

Bills -7.5 vs Broncos

 

Bills -2.5 vs Chiefs

Bills -10 vs Steelers

 

Bills -4.5 vs Bengals

Bills -10 vs Dolphins

 

Bills +2.5 at Chiefs

Bills -4.5 vs Patriots

 

Bills +3 at Chiefs

Bills -2.5 vs Ravens

Bills -6 vs Colts

 

The Bills have stacked up extremely well the last five years. In 12 playoff games, they've been favored in eight of them. They've been underdogs of +1 at home, and +1, +2.5, +3 on the road (all at KC). Unless you think the NFL playoff betting market is inefficient, the Bills have had pretty damn good teams, and they profile as a team that could have and should have advanced to a Super Bowl in one of these last five years. They've been ousted four of five times by perhaps the best dynasty in NFL history. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Big Blitz]

McD is not the problem.  
 

Unless he’s the final voice on who we’ve drafted in the first 2 rounds the last 4 drafts…

 

With first year coordinators the last 2 years we’ve been the 2 seed back to back.  
 

 

WE NEED A CHRIS JONES

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

To me, one of the 4 statements has has to be true.  Sure, a relationship exists between these concepts. It could be 60% coaching and 40% talent as an example. But one of the 4 statements has to be the most accurate over the rest. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is good 

 

• Since 2020, 78 players have had a 10 sack season. The only Bills defender to cross that number was Leonard Floyd in 2023.
• From 2020-2023, 168 Pro Bowl selections were made for defensive players. Buffalo had 4 Pro Bowl occurrences good for a 7 way tie for 18th-25th in the league.  This data did not include this year because I didn't have the full data, but it was zero for Buffalo thus year. 
• Former starters who left for Free Agency have gone onto to do very little. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is bad

 

The Bills have the 2nd best EPA on defense in the regular season since 2020.

 

McD is good and the talent is good

 

Since 2020, out of 18 teams that have played in the divisional round or later the Bills EPA ranks 16th. 

 

McD is good and the talent is bad...........

 

To me this is a consideration worth exploring more as it seems to allow for all the the above being true.

 

Bad defenses are not capable of performing as well as we do in the regular season. I know we like to to say we just feast on the lesser teams, which is true, but everybody else seems to struggle feasting at a level we do. Which means it's either coaching or talent that is creating this heightened performance against lesser teams.

 

So then you say ok, what's a logical reason why we would be able to do so well in the regular season and be so bad in the divisional round or later? Some say KC. Well, we also played Baltimore and Cincinnati and it's been pretty ugly against all of them. It wouldn't seem to make sense to say, well, coaching is good in the regular season, but bad in the playoffs. I mean the balance could shift to that more, but how much? If it's good in the regular season can it swing all the way to bad in the playoffs?  I guess it's possible but that seems like a jump in logic.

 

So now we look at the roster. People seem to hold Beane in high regard and each season we hear about this notion of Buffalo Bills defenders being disrespected/Pro Bowl snubbed. Our success has made many posters not really focus on the actual talent or they just assume the talent level is high. Which I think could be a mistake. It could be possible that we have had a bottom 20 defensive roster the entire time McD has been here. One that simply breaks down when facing the higher end teams. If the roster is in fact very bad defensively, it would make sense that coaching could facilitate success in the regular season and potentially have the bottom fall out against the better teams as the talent edge becomes too much. Then sure, any decrease in coaching ability in the regular season vs the playoffs would really accelerate that downtrend. 

 

All this is to say, perhaps it's Beane that should have the warmer seat than McD? 

 

This isn't a fully formed opinion by any stretch. Just something I was kicking around and was curious how other felt?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think McD is a better coach than Beane is a GM. And both are good. 
 

The problem is that the QB gap between the Bills and the Chiefs is much smaller than the coaching/GM gap. Which is stark.
 

as @GoBills808 said, Beane and McD are lockstep. Beane picks the players but their vision is shared.

 

The roster is 100% overrated on TBD. These folks will argue Allen deserves MVP for dragging a bunch of bums to the AFCCG, then praise the GM for assembling this group. It’s bizarre lol.