Is McD actually compensating for Beane?

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Sean McDermott has been heavy zone for a decade plus as a play caller 

 

One game doesn't make a history one game doesn't make it a habit 

 

Heavy man for Sean McDermott is going from 65 zone 35 man.. to 55 zone 45 man 

 

...

 

The bills are ready for everything the chiefs defense has too lol

 

The difference is they had a great play called on our last offensive play.. bills also had some great defensive calls just wasn't at as critical of the time 

 

We're basically divisional rivals we know and have seen every call 

 

It's who blinks.. they aren't showing any wrinkle we haven't seen and vice versa

 

 Rousseau literally said the Chief did things they had never seen before

[Buffalo716]

7 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

So you don't think Andy was more prepared for more man in the playoff game compared to the regular season game?

 

Part of The original post was something along the lines of the bills being a good regular season defence, but struggles in the playoffs.

 

My point was I think the bills caught Andy off guard by mixing in more man in the regular season .(in which it worked)

And he predicted the bills were gonna go more man heavy in the playoffs and was game planning more for it. (Unlike the regular season)

 

You disagree with that?

 

 

It's one thing if you're heavy zone you becomes 80% man 20% zone 

 

Sean McDermott playing 46% man coverage compared to his regular season totals is about 6 more man calls 

 

In the grand scheme of things 6 more man calls isn't surprising to any NFL level coach

 

That's not a far deviation.. we've been begging Sean McDermott to play more type man coverage for 6 years 

 

Damned if you do damned if you don't

Edited 4 hours ago by Buffalo716

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

To me, one of the 4 statements has has to be true.  Sure, a relationship exists between these concepts. It could be 60% coaching and 40% talent as an example. But one of the 4 statements has to be the most accurate over the rest. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is good 

 

• Since 2020, 78 players have had a 10 sack season. The only Bills defender to cross that number was Leonard Floyd in 2023.
• From 2020-2023, 168 Pro Bowl selections were made for defensive players. Buffalo had 4 Pro Bowl occurrences good for a 7 way tie for 18th-25th in the league.  This data did not include this year because I didn't have the full data, but it was zero for Buffalo thus year. 
• Former starters who left for Free Agency have gone onto to do very little. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is bad

 

The Bills have the 2nd best EPA on defense in the regular season since 2020.

 

McD is good and the talent is good

 

Since 2020, out of 18 teams that have played in the divisional round or later the Bills EPA ranks 16th. 

 

McD is good and the talent is bad...........

 

To me this is a consideration worth exploring more as it seems to allow for all the the above being true.

 

Bad defenses are not capable of performing as well as we do in the regular season. I know we like to to say we just feast on the lesser teams, which is true, but everybody else seems to struggle feasting at a level we do. Which means it's either coaching or talent that is creating this heightened performance against lesser teams.

 

So then you say ok, what's a logical reason why we would be able to do so well in the regular season and be so bad in the divisional round or later? Some say KC. Well, we also played Baltimore and Cincinnati and it's been pretty ugly against all of them. It wouldn't seem to make sense to say, well, coaching is good in the regular season, but bad in the playoffs. I mean the balance could shift to that more, but how much? If it's good in the regular season can it swing all the way to bad in the playoffs?  I guess it's possible but that seems like a jump in logic.

 

So now we look at the roster. People seem to hold Beane in high regard and each season we hear about this notion of Buffalo Bills defenders being disrespected/Pro Bowl snubbed. Our success has made many posters not really focus on the actual talent or they just assume the talent level is high. Which I think could be a mistake. It could be possible that we have had a bottom 20 defensive roster the entire time McD has been here. One that simply breaks down when facing the higher end teams. If the roster is in fact very bad defensively, it would make sense that coaching could facilitate success in the regular season and potentially have the bottom fall out against the better teams as the talent edge becomes too much. Then sure, any decrease in coaching ability in the regular season vs the playoffs would really accelerate that downtrend. 

 

All this is to say, perhaps it's Beane that should have the warmer seat than McD? 

 

This isn't a fully formed opinion by any stretch. Just something I was kicking around and was curious how other felt?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think the focus has been turned to Beane.

 

He was heavily criticized for not finding a WR1 last season after dealing Diggs.   Not having that quality in the intermediate and deep passing game directly caused their exit from the playoffs for the second year in a row.   He's not found enough difference makers on either side of the ball in free agency or the draft.

 

  By contrast, I think McD upped his personal stock with his coaching job this season.   He got some heat for the ending of the Houston game but hit numerous HR's with big decisions in other games.

[SinceThe70s]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

 Rousseau literally said the Chief did things they had never seen before

 

This comment reminded me that Van Noy said that he'd never seen the Bills play so conservatively the week before.

[BillsFan130]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

It's one thing if you're heavy man becomes 80% man 20% zone 

 

Sean McDermott playing 46% man coverage compared to his regular season totals is about three or four more calls man coverage 

 

In the grand scheme of things 6 more man calls isn't surprising to any NFL level coach

 

That's not a far deviation.. we've been begging Sean McDermott to play more type man coverage for 6 years 

 

Damned if you do damned if you don't

No team plays close to 80 percent man though.

 

46 percent is very heavy in the NFL. Only 3 teams in the nfl played a higher percentage than that in the regular season .

So going to one of the most zone heavy teams, to a top 4 man Team in a playoff game, is a very big change.

 

Point being: Andy was ready for it the 2nd time around and called man beaters all day long. (Including the final play that iced it)

Edited 4 hours ago by BillsFan130

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 Rousseau literally said the Chief did things they had never seen before

You could find every single play on tape for the Chiefs in the last three seasons lol

 

All of those stretch rollouts are on film that they beat us with on third and short.. all of their rolling rights are on film 

 

First of all professional football is 100 years old there are no new play calls.. everything has been used 

 

Second.. the Chiefs did not do anything new.. you could have watched film from the last 4 years and seeing those plays 

 

Just because they didn't run them week 1 through 17 doesn't mean they're not in their bag

1 minute ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

This comment reminded me that Van Noy said that he'd never seen the Bills play so conservatively the week before.

Which was also hyperbole

1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:

No team plays close to 80 percent man though.

 

46 percent is very heavy in the NFL. Only 3 teams in the nfl played a higher percentage than that in the regular season .

So going to one of the most zone heavy teams, to a top 4 Team in a playoff game, is a very big change.

 

Point being: Andy was ready for it the 2nd time around and called man beaters all day long. (Including the final play that iced it)

Six play calls is not a big deviation 

 

If it was 18 play calls.. triple what you see, it would be a big deviation 

 

Six play calls is basically one per drive

[Sojourner]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 Rousseau literally said the Chief did things they had never seen before

lol

 

yeah, a guard playing LT. Shut him down too whenever he was lined up there. 😔

(sarc)

[NORWOODS FOOT]

Thank you for your thoughtful analysis. 
 

I think you’re on to something. 
 

Regarding picking talent, we haven’t had anyone close to Polian since he was pushed out. 
 

This has been my biggest gripe for nearly 30 years. 
 

Every year I scout the top 60 players or so and, when we are on the clock, I make my pick. Too often my picks have turned out better than the Bills…

 

Bills: Donte Whitner 

Me: Haloti Ngata

 

Bills: Aaron Maybin

Me: Clay Matthew’s Jr.

 

Bills: Josh Allen

Me: Lamar Jackson

(Beane was right)

 

Bills: Elam

Me: Tarik Woolen

 

Bills: Groot

Me: Owusu-Koramoah

(Beane was right)

 

Bills: Trade with Chiefs

Me: Xavier Worthy

Me: Ladd McConky (after trade down)

 

So obviously my picks don’t always hit, and thank God we have Josh, but damn… Kind of disheartening when, me, a casual fan is arguably making better picks than the team. 
 

I have felt for years that the lack of quality drafting, especially in the high rounds, has often been a problem.

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

You could find every single play on tape for the Chiefs in the last three seasons lol

 

All of those stretch rollouts are on film that they beat us with on third and short.. all of their rolling rights are on film 

 

First of all professional football is 100 years old there are no new play calls.. everything has been used 

 

Second.. the Chiefs did not do anything new.. you could have watched film from the last 4 years and seeing those plays 

 

Just because they didn't run them week 1 through 17 doesn't mean they're not in their bag

Which was also hyperbole

Six play calls is not a big deviation 

 

If it was 18 play calls.. triple what you see, it would be a big deviation 

 

Six play calls is basically one per drive

The bills have been becoming more man focused the last 4 years under McD

 

Cover one on third down in passing situations has been our biggest usage 

 

3rd and passing we go cover one man.. every coach knows that

 

We're heavy zone on first down and some second... Heavy man on 3rd in passing situations 

Edited 4 hours ago by Buffalo716

[BillsFan130]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

You could find every single play on tape for the Chiefs in the last three seasons lol

 

All of those stretch rollouts are on film that they beat us with on third and short.. all of their rolling rights are on film 

 

First of all professional football is 100 years old there are no new play calls.. everything has been used 

 

Second.. the Chiefs did not do anything new.. you could have watched film from the last 4 years and seeing those plays 

 

Just because they didn't run them week 1 through 17 doesn't mean they're not in their bag

Which was also hyperbole

Six play calls is not a big deviation 

 

If it was 18 play calls.. triple what you see, it would be a big deviation 

 

Six play calls is basically one per drive

Fair, but just saying they played 6 more man snaps has to have context as well.

 
If let's say 5 of 6 of those extra man snaps were on 3rd and mediums/long, then I would say that's a big change. 

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Fair, but just saying they played 6 more man snaps has to have context as well.

 
If let's say 5 of 6 of those extra man snaps were on 3rd and mediums/long, then I would say that's a big change. 

I would say that's the opposite.. if they were playing cover one man on first and 10 it would be a change 

 

We've been going cover one man on 3rd and long for 3 years

 

We go combination coverage or cover three shells early.. cover one on third down

 

Were heavily man on 3rd.. more zone dependent on the first two downs.. we just played a little bit more man early 

 

McD is Super man dependent on 3rd and passing for 3 years 

Edited 4 hours ago by Buffalo716

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

This comment reminded me that Van Noy said that he'd never seen the Bills play so conservatively the week before.

I think OP knows, as we all do, that this roster and staff is built in McDermott's image

[BillsFan130]

Just now, Buffalo716 said:

I would say that's the opposite.. if they were playing cover one man on first and 10 it would be a change 

 

We've been going cover one man on 3rd and long for 3 years

Fair enough- They definitely were transitioning to a lot more cover one man on 3rd downs the last couple years, so I'll grant you that

[Alphadawg7]

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

You can field a fringe SB contender with a bad roster if the QB is that good.

 

The Colts proved it going from 1st place SB contender with Peyton Manning.......to 2-14 when he missed the next season........and back to first place and SB contending the season after that when they drafted Andrew Luck with that 1st round pick obtained by going 2-14.  

 

 

 

But that doesn't really prove the roster was bad, all it really proves that in a QB driven league, the QB's in between were that bad.

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[julian]

Yikes: In the #Bills last 5 playoff losses, they've had the WORST PPG defense of ALL TIME in the Super Bowl era.

 

Giving up a whopping 33.2 PPG
 

This nugget came from a thread on X, I haven’t fact checked it but it feels right and if true it’s a bad look for a defensive HC.

[SinceThe70s]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think OP knows, as we all do, that this roster and staff is built in McDermott's image

 

TBH I thought Van Noy's comment was a feather in the coaching staff's cap in that we unexpectedly put the cuffs on Josh. I took Van Noy's comment as a positive for our staff.

 

On the other side of the ball, what resonated with me this year was a Monday night ManningCast - must've been Jets/Rodgers - where Belichik was asked whether the Bills would blitz more after the Jets had problems with pressure the week before  - and he said no, the Bills have been doing the same thing for years, relying on pressure from the front and won't change.

[GoBills808]

Just now, SinceThe70s said:

 

TBH I thought Van Noy's comment was a feather in the coaching staff's cap in that we unexpectedly put the cuffs on Josh. I took Van Noy's comment as a positive for our staff.

 

On the other side of the ball, what resonated with me this year was a Monday night ManningCast - must've been Jets/Rodgers - where Belichik was asked whether the Bills would blitz more after the Jets had problems with pressure the week before  - and he said no, the Bills have been doing the same thing for years, relying on pressure from the front and won't change.

I wasn't commenting on whether it was positive or negative, just that the personnel and resultant schemes are a reflection of the HC

[nedboy7]

Show me the coach doing better than McD other than the walrus over the last 5 seasons.  Bruce Ariens?  Get a grip on McD sucks narrative.  
good post Mikey. Like the discussion.  

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

McD is good and the talent is bad...........

 

To me this is a consideration worth exploring more as it seems to allow for all the the above being true.

 

Bad defenses are not capable of performing as well as we do in the regular season. I know we like to to say we just feast on the lesser teams, which is true, but everybody else seems to struggle feasting at a level we do. Which means it's either coaching or talent that is creating this heightened performance against lesser teams.

 

So then you say ok, what's a logical reason why we would be able to do so well in the regular season and be so bad in the divisional round or later? Some say KC. Well, we also played Baltimore and Cincinnati and it's been pretty ugly against all of them. It wouldn't seem to make sense to say, well, coaching is good in the regular season, but bad in the playoffs. I mean the balance could shift to that more, but how much? If it's good in the regular season can it swing all the way to bad in the playoffs?  I guess it's possible but that seems like a jump in logic.

 

So now we look at the roster. People seem to hold Beane in high regard and each season we hear about this notion of Buffalo Bills defenders being disrespected/Pro Bowl snubbed. Our success has made many posters not really focus on the actual talent or they just assume the talent level is high. Which I think could be a mistake. It could be possible that we have had a bottom 20 defensive roster the entire time McD has been here. One that simply breaks down when facing the higher end teams. If the roster is in fact very bad defensively, it would make sense that coaching could facilitate success in the regular season and potentially have the bottom fall out against the better teams as the talent edge becomes too much. Then sure, any decrease in coaching ability in the regular season vs the playoffs would really accelerate that downtrend. 

 

All this is to say, perhaps it's Beane that should have the warmer seat than McD? 

 

This isn't a fully formed opinion by any stretch. Just something I was kicking around and was curious how other felt?

 

I think Beane's seat could be heated up a bit.

 

I think it's probably more nuanced than "McD good, talent bad"

 

I would say the aggregate talent level is above average - the Jimmies and Joes have to have something McD can work with.   And above average is fine for defeating most teams.  But there are two problems:

1) McD's defense depends upon everyone working together, and when you lose more than 1 starter, the interdependence that makes it work starts to break down

2) When we face the top teams, we need 1-2 "game wreckers", guys who can take over a game and change it.  And we just don't have that on defense.

We don't have a Chris Jones, or a TJ Watt, or a Maxx Crosby.

[jkeerie]

1 hour ago, Success said:

I feel like we keep looking for blame, because it's so frustrating.

 

But it might just be that McD is just not quite as good as Reid, and Beane is not quite as good as Veach.  And Reid & Veach are almost inarguably the 2 best in the game.

 

 

To me the biggest difference is KC has Chris Jones.  He's the difference maker that elevates the play of the entire KC defense.  The Bills have no one defensively that is a difference maker.  I would add that KC 's secondary this year had more talent than the Bill's secondary... especially with Benford and Rapp missing.