Is McD actually compensating for Beane?

[Mikie2times]

To me, one of the 4 statements has has to be true.  Sure, a relationship exists between these concepts. It could be 60% coaching and 40% talent as an example. But one of the 4 statements has to be the most accurate over the rest. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is good 

 

• Since 2020, 78 players have had a 10 sack season. The only Bills defender to cross that number was Leonard Floyd in 2023.
• From 2020-2023, 168 Pro Bowl selections were made for defensive players. Buffalo had 4 Pro Bowl occurrences good for a 7 way tie for 18th-25th in the league.  This data did not include this year because I didn't have the full data, but it was zero for Buffalo thus year. 
• Former starters who left for Free Agency have gone onto to do very little. 

 

McD is bad and the talent is bad

 

The Bills have the 2nd best EPA on defense in the regular season since 2020.

 

McD is good and the talent is good

 

Since 2020, out of 18 teams that have played in the divisional round or later the Bills EPA ranks 16th. 

 

McD is good and the talent is bad...........

 

To me this is a consideration worth exploring more as it seems to allow for all the the above being true.

 

Bad defenses are not capable of performing as well as we do in the regular season. I know we like to to say we just feast on the lesser teams, which is true, but everybody else seems to struggle feasting at a level we do. Which means it's either coaching or talent that is creating this heightened performance against lesser teams.

 

So then you say ok, what's a logical reason why we would be able to do so well in the regular season and be so bad in the divisional round or later? Some say KC. Well, we also played Baltimore and Cincinnati and it's been pretty ugly against all of them. It wouldn't seem to make sense to say, well, coaching is good in the regular season, but bad in the playoffs. I mean the balance could shift to that more, but how much? If it's good in the regular season can it swing all the way to bad in the playoffs?  I guess it's possible but that seems like a jump in logic.

 

So now we look at the roster. People seem to hold Beane in high regard and each season we hear about this notion of Buffalo Bills defenders being disrespected/Pro Bowl snubbed. Our success has made many posters not really focus on the actual talent or they just assume the talent level is high. Which I think could be a mistake. It could be possible that we have had a bottom 20 defensive roster the entire time McD has been here. One that simply breaks down when facing the higher end teams. If the roster is in fact very bad defensively, it would make sense that coaching could facilitate success in the regular season and potentially have the bottom fall out against the better teams as the talent edge becomes too much. Then sure, any decrease in coaching ability in the regular season vs the playoffs would really accelerate that downtrend. 

 

All this is to say, perhaps it's Beane that should have the warmer seat than McD? 

 

This isn't a fully formed opinion by any stretch. Just something I was kicking around and was curious how other felt?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Buffalo716]

Sean McDermott maximizes talent 100%

 

I won't even debate it he's a world class developer... It's the jimmies and Joe's not Xs and Os

 

McDermott scheme is complicated world class and far from vanilla

Edited 3 hours ago by Buffalo716

[Success]

I feel like we keep looking for blame, because it's so frustrating.

 

But it might just be that McD is just not quite as good as Reid, and Beane is not quite as good as Veach.  And Reid & Veach are almost inarguably the 2 best in the game.

 

 

[Mikie2times]

Just now, Success said:

I feel like we keep looking for blame, because it's so frustrating.

 

But it might just be that McD is just not quite as good as Reid, and Beane is not quite as good as Veach.  And Reid & Veach are almost inarguably the 2 best in the game.

 

 

Sure, I get that, but which is easier to argue. Our defense has bottom 20 talent or top 10 talent? If it's the former, what exactly does that say about our talent acquisition on defense? Further, what's that say about what we have been able to do in the regular season with that? It also speak to where we should likely be making future investments. Mind you, none of those matter if you don't hit on them. Which has largely been the case thus far.

[PromoTheRobot]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Sean McDermott maximizes talent 100%

 

I won't even debate it he's a world class developer... It's the jimmies and Joe's not Xs and Os

 

McDermott scheme is complicated world class and far from vanilla

I didn't know you can win 15 games with bad coaching and no talent.

[Success]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

Sure, I get that, but which is easier to argue. Our defense has bottom 20 talent or top 10 talent? If it's the former, what exactly does that say about our talent acquisition on defense? Further, what's that say about what we have been able to do in the regular season with that? It also speak to where we should likely be making future investments. Mind you, none of those matter if you don't hit on them. Which has largely been the case thus far.

 

Yeah - I go over that in my head a lot (how talented the D is).  

 

The talent acquisition needs to improve.  We need some stars. We need a Garrett, or Crosby   Beane tried to do that w/ Miller, but he was past his prime.  And you can't call any of his early round picks on D busts, really - but none have panned out into stars, which you'd like to see once in awhile.  I still think maybe Groot could be, but he's not there yet.

 

We haven't had what most would call a championship-caliber defense.  It has been a fine regular season defense, but once we get to the playoffs, the flaws are glaring.

 

[Buffalo716]

9 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I didn't know you can win 15 games with bad coaching and no talent.

I didn't say we have zero talent 

 

We don't have supreme talents 

 

We don't have two or three Hall of Fame players who are in their prime 

 

We have more talent than 80% of the league... But we don't have a lot of super high end talent talent 

 

We have a lot of good to really good

 

And I'm pretty sure if you read what I said I'm saying Sean McDermott is a really good coach who maximizes what we have not that he's doing less with more 

 

He's a world-class developer who isn't getting enough to develop

 

 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Buffalo716

[BillsFan130]

I think we like to pick talent OR coaching to the reason why we can't get over the hump.

 

In reality to me it's both.

 

The bills front 4 doesn't disrupt enough in the playoffs.

 

But at the same time I think part of the reason we do well in the regular season and flame out in the playoffs on defence, is because of adjustments.

 

Bills played a high percentage of man the first time they played the chiefs. Which I think caught Andy off guard a bit as usually they play zone.

 

The Bills continued to play man a lot in the playoffs- Andy was ready for it and dialled up man beaters all game long 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Success said:

 

Yeah - I go over that in my head a lot (how talented the D is).  

 

The talent acquisition needs to improve.  We need some stars. We need a Garrett, or Crosby   Beane tried to do that w/ Miller, but he was past his prime.  And you can't call any of his early round picks on D busts, really - but none have panned out into stars, which you'd like to see once in awhile.  I still think maybe Groot could be, but he's not there yet.

 

We haven't had what most would call a championship-caliber defense.  It has been a fine regular season defense, but once we get to the playoffs, the flaws are glaring.

 

Certainly the good not great types. But I wonder how many of these guys are even starters on other teams. I imagine the number is close to half our starting roster. Which is sort of crazy when you think about it.

[The Jokeman]

5 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Yeah - I go over that in my head a lot (how talented the D is).  

 

The talent acquisition needs to improve.  We need some stars. We need a Garrett, or Crosby   Beane tried to do that w/ Miller, but he was past his prime.  And you can't call any of his early round picks on D busts, really - but none have panned out into stars, which you'd like to see once in awhile.  I still think maybe Groot could be, but he's not there yet.

 

We haven't had what most would call a championship-caliber defense.  It has been a fine regular season defense, but once we get to the playoffs, the flaws are glaring.

 

Miller had 8 sacks in his first 11 games as a Bills. The injury did him in. It was a risk to sign him yes and it failed and yet we've still been a top 5 team.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I’ve always believed McDermott is king. But I believe Beane got more responsibility when it comes to the roster in the last few years.

 

When McDermott was hired he was basically like Belichick or Andy Reid, he was shopping for the groceries and doing the cooking. That is a little different today but only because McDermott allowed it.

[Wizard]

Answer:

 

1. The Bills have a top 2 QB that covers a lot of weaknesses 

 

2. We finally have an above average running game

 

3. Consistency with our OL coupled with investing in it and a lack of injuries has given Buffalo a solid offensive line.

 

4. The Bills are an opportunistic defense. The coaches maximize the CB/Safety talent, but as a whole, there is not a lot of talent.

 

5. We have pretty good LB's, but the undersized 2 LB scheme does not usually help our pash rush, run defense, or pass coverage as much as we need.

 

6. The front office has drafted poorly, overdrafted, and done a poor job of developing, signing, trading, or acquiring DT's and DE's as a whole the last 7 years.

 

7. The Bills have done a criminally bad job in maximizing the WR room. Sure, Diggs was great but a headcase. Shakir was a hit. Cooper and Samuel significantly underperformed. Coleman looks okay thus far, buy I am not confident in him becoming a 1,000 yard true #2.

 

8. Beane and McDermott get too much credit for the Bills overall win success. That belongs to Allen's talent, the OL, and finally a running game. Remember, McDermott is the defensive guy 

 

9. Beane and McDermott do not get enough credit for improving the culture, consistency, and continuity of Buffalo becoming a playoff caliber/above average team.

 

Bottom line is Bills are a top 4-10 team each year with about a top 12-16 roster of talent on it, overall.

 

QB-A

OL-A-

RB-B+

WR-C

TE-C

ST-C-

DL-D+

LB-C+

CB-B

S-C

 

Coaching: McDermott teams struggle to finish in big postseason performances whether that is a jey stop, a mismanaged clock situation, not making consistent effective adjustments, or getting outcoached.

 

He may get us a ring. He is too good to replace, but he is not good enough to have supreme confidence in him.

 

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Wizard

[Buffalo716]

13 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

I think we like to pick talent OR coaching to the reason why we can't get over the hump.

 

In reality to me it's both.

 

The bills front 4 doesn't disrupt enough in the playoffs.

 

But at the same time I think part of the reason we do well in the regular season and flame out in the playoffs on defence, is because of adjustments.

 

Bills played a high percentage of man the first time they played the chiefs. Which I think caught Andy off guard a bit as usually they play zone.

 

The Bills continued to play man a lot in the playoffs- Andy was ready for it and dialled up man beaters all game long 

 

 

Except.. 95% of this board was sick and tired of McDermott's "soft" zone coverage 

 

Begging for more man-to-man 

 

And he ran more man to man this year than he ever has 

 

More complaints 

 

People complain when he runs zone people complain when he runs man

[BillsFan130]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Except.. 95% of this board was sick and tired of McDermott's "soft" zone coverage 

 

Begging for more man-to-man 

 

And he ran more man to man this year than he ever has 

 

More complaints 

 

People complain when he runs zone people complain when he runs man

I'm not disputing that. I'm just stating a fact that bills ran a lot more man coverage in the 1st regular season game- Andy was ready for it in the playoffs, and made the necessary adjustments 

[y2zipper]

This year's rendition of the team was closer to the coaching is better than the talent then the other way around, at least on defense. The Beane presser for me was basically defending his guys publicly as a recruiting pitch, and I'm not sure I believe his claim of extensions only.

 

On offense, i think they should retain Cooper for another year and run that side of the ball back. Get Cooper, Samuel and Kincaid healthy and that skill position room looks and performs different.

 

Defensively, the talent has gone up and down over the years with the notion of it being a "transition year" pointing to all the moves on defense.

 

This year was a particularly bad year for the defense as a whole and, and this offseason is a chance to cut bait on some of those DL investments that haven't worked and look for defensive talent.

[Breakout Squad]

I still support McDermott. We’re lucky to have him. Losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship shouldn’t be held against him. No one beats the Chiefs…except the BILLS in the regular reason 🤷

[julian]

McDermott is good but not good enough

 

The talent is good but not good enough

[Buffalo716]

14 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

I'm not disputing that. I'm just stating a fact that bills ran a lot more man coverage in the 1st regular season game- Andy was ready for it in the playoffs, and made the necessary adjustments 

Sean McDermott has been heavy zone for a decade plus as a play caller 

 

One game doesn't make a history one game doesn't make it a habit 

 

Heavy man for Sean McDermott is going from 65 zone 35 man.. to 55 zone 45 man 

 

...

 

The bills are ready for everything the chiefs defense has too lol

 

The difference is they had a great play called on our last offensive play.. bills also had some great defensive calls just wasn't at as critical of the time 

 

We're basically divisional rivals we know and have seen every call 

 

It's who blinks.. they aren't showing any wrinkle we haven't seen and vice versa

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Buffalo716

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

Sean McDermott has been heavy zone for a decade plus as a play caller 

 

One game doesn't make a history one game doesn't make it a habit 

 

Heavy man for Sean McDermott is going from 65 zone 35 man.. to 55 zone 45 man 

 

...

 

The bills are ready for everything the chiefs defense has too lol

 

The difference is they had a great play called on our last offensive play.. they also had great defensive calls just wasn't at as critical of the time 

 

We're basically divisional rivals we know and have seen every call 

 

It's who blinks

 

So you don't think Andy was more prepared for more man in the playoff game compared to the regular season game?

 

Part of The original post was something along the lines of the bills being a good regular season defence, but struggles in the playoffs.

 

My point was I think the bills caught Andy off guard by mixing in more man in the regular season .(in which it worked)

And he predicted the bills were gonna go more man heavy in the playoffs and was game planning more for it. (Unlike the regular season)

 

You disagree with that?

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

47 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I didn't know you can win 15 games with bad coaching and no talent.

 

You can field a fringe SB contender with a bad roster if the QB is that good.

 

The Colts proved it going from 1st place SB contender with Peyton Manning.......to 2-14 when he missed the next season........and back to first place and SB contending the season after that when they drafted Andrew Luck with that 1st round pick obtained by going 2-14.