Who are the Bills elite players and do the Bills have enough elite players to win a Super Bowl?

[BeastMaster]

The Bills have the worst defense in the playoffs ever over their last five games

 

That is a problem, and it's why Josh is now being unfairly lumped into the Philip Rivers/Peyton Manning category

 

I don't know about you, but I do not trust the same people over those last five years to fix the defense

 

You have to make a real change

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

That being said, I think Veach's roster building is far superior to Beane. I think the gap there is a little bigger.

 

My belief is that if the rosters were flipped we'd be angry at Beane for completely screwing up the OT position, for signing an injury prone WR, for failing to add a difference making edge rusher and blowing a 1st round pick there on a player that doesn't see the field.

 

I'm not happy with Beane lately because whether influenced by McDermott or not he hasn't followed the necessary strategy to take this team to its ultimate goal, but I don't look at the two rosters and see some massive gap. There's a reason KC is favored in the Super Bowl and it's not because a single person out there thinks they have the better roster.

[notpolian]

21 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Thank you....someone who's glass isn't half full while wearing rose colored glasses.  We have exactly 1 elite player on this team...17 and that's it.

Cook is approaching that status very quickly.  Dion & Spencer are good tackles but hardly elite. We have no elite WR'S or TE'S.

Milano was the closest defensive player to elite but constant injuries have ended that narrative. Oliver, Rousseau Benford, Taron and Bernard are good but not great. The rest of our defense are just rotational Jags. We don't need elite players at LB or DB, but for McD's scheme to work, he must have at least 1 elite player on the DL.

This captures my thoughts almost exactly.  I like the term "difference maker".  These are players that can take over a game and have to be specifically game planned against.  Allen is the only one we have.  The Chiefs have three.

 

To me, elite is the same as very good.  I think Benford and Cook are very good.  Cook really looked great in the AFCCG.  Taron Johnson has stepped back a bit and Milano has not quite made it back to where he was pre-injury.  Dawkins and Brown are close enough that I'll call them very good.

 

We need difference makers, especially on defense and at WR, and the best way to get them is via the draft.  A FA difference maker is crazy difficult and expensive to get. Von's contract and subsequent injury and lack of production is an excellent example of how difficult is, although you could argue Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry showed it is possible.

[Jrb1979]

Just now, BeastMaster said:

The Bills have the worst defense in the playoffs ever over their last five games

 

That is a problem, and it's why Josh is now being unfairly lumped into the Philip Rivers/Peyton Manning category

 

I don't know about you, but I do not trust the same people over those last five years to fix the defense

 

You have to make a real change

First thing is to stop focusing so much on character or guys to fit you system. Take BPA. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm not a big Coleman fan (didn't love the pick either) but I saw very little effort from Brady to integrate his skillset. We had two or three games where Allen would throw him back shoulder passes and that was it. Never understood the plan at wideout outside Shakir.

 

Kincaid needs a better coach than Boras sorry not sorry. Knox never developed when he was supposedly coming into the league super green, Kincaid has gone backwards. He's got talent and tools.

I think that’s all fair. Coleman’s lack of separation terrified me coming into the league and was only magnified once he got here. He has very good ball skills but caught 1/2 of his targets. That’s a function of never being open. He will never be able to be a focal point of the offense if every throw to him is a jump ball. He can only be used occasionally if that’s who he is. He is a big slot on a team with 1, or even 2, superior slot options. I promise that the Bills aren’t feeling good about him at this point. Is he doomed? No. Is he limited and potentially no more than a number 4? Yes and maybe

 

100% agree on the lack of a plan at WR. Here we are again with it as one of their biggest needs.

Edited Saturday at 06:05 PM by Kirby Jackson

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

48 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

 

 

 

Dorian Williams>Roquan Smith?!

Shakir=AB84?!

Kincaid=Tony G?!

 

F me bro. That’s some wild takes lmao

Greg Rousseau=Deacon Jones????

9 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

The Bills have the worst defense in the playoffs ever over their last five games

 

That is a problem, and it's why Josh is now being unfairly lumped into the Philip Rivers/Peyton Manning category

 

I don't know about you, but I do not trust the same people over those last five years to fix the defense

 

You have to make a real change

For me when you perform the exercise in this thread how obvious it is that Josh is the MVP. I'm not knocking Lamar he's awesome, and Player of the Year, but in terms of value to his team it's obvious.

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I have no idea how good they actually were. Probably pretty good. But we still had trouble containing a lot of good passing attacks and we still have players who aren’t very good perform well at Safety. They still had teams not pursue them while being very young In FA. I don’t think every sign points to them being elite. But it’s a fairly unscientific evaluation process anyway. 

 

 

 

Everybody has some trouble containing passing attacks.

 

We had much less trouble than most teams. For many years in a row. And a very large percentage of that was Hyde and Poyer.

 

This isn't a hidden secret of the Masons or something. Pretty much everyone knows it.

 

If you have no idea how good they were, I'll tell you. Extremely good. Again, the numbers showed it. It's not just me, it's pretty much everyone.

 

Rapp is actually pretty good at this point. He wasn't when he got here, but they're excellent teachers here. Hamlin is acceptable. The difference is that Poyer and Hyde were both excellent for years.

 

Sensational athletes? No. Hyde especially was pretty good. But they were really good at being misleading, facilitating communication and working together to confuse QBs.

 

But the Bills D this year was 20th in defensive passer rating. And for most of the year they had really good CBs until Douglas seemed to drop off.

 

20th. And again, with Poyer and Hyde, it was*

 

2022 2nd in defensive passer rating

2021, 1st, 70.1

2020, 7th

2019 4th

2019 3rd 

2017 5th in 2017.

 

Is some of that CB play? Absolutely, without question. But outside of Tre, during those years we had guys at CB like Dane Jackson, and Levi and Shareece Wright (55% of the snaps in 2017).

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

The best defense I've ever seen talent wise was the 70s Steelers, granted I was a kid and didn't know as much. But, I swear some of the takes on here are laughable. I thought I'd continue for humor the hilarious takes of how good Bills players are in a some minds.

 

Greg Rousseau=LC Greenwood

Ed Oliver=Mean Joe Greene

Matt Milano=Jack Ham

Terrell Bernard= Jack Lambert

Christian Benford= Mel Blount

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Everybody has some trouble containing passing attacks.

 

We had much less trouble than most teams. For many years in a row. And a very large percentage of that was Hyde and Poyer.

 

This isn't a hidden secret of the Masons or something. Pretty much everyone knows it.

 

If you have no idea how good they were, I'll tell you. Extremely good. Again, the numbers showed it. It's not just me, it's pretty much everyone.

 

Rapp is actually pretty good at this point. He wasn't when he got here, but they're excellent teachers here. Hamlin is acceptable. The difference is that Poyer and Hyde were both excellent for years.

 

Sensational athletes? No. Hyde especially was pretty good. But they were really good at being misleading, facilitating communication and working together to confuse QBs.

 

But the Bills D this year was 20th in defensive passer rating. And for most of the year they had really good CBs until Douglas seemed to drop off.

 

20th. And again, with Poyer and Hyde, it was*

 

2022 2nd in defensive passer rating

2021, 1st, 70.1

2020, 7th

2019 4th

2019 3rd 

2017 5th in 2017.

 

Is some of that CB play? Absolutely, without question. But outside of Tre, during those years we had guys at CB like Dane Jackson, and Levi and Shareece Wright (55% of the snaps in 2017).

 

 

I know all the standard TBD talking points for both. I don’t really know how much I believe it. Good players, sure. Better while working together. Good system that does exceedingly well in the regular season. Positions in our system that don’t seem to require a lot of talent. So like I said, not entirely sure. But I understand you’re. Most feel that way. 

[Allen2Moulds]

18 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

My belief is that if the rosters were flipped we'd be angry at Beane for completely screwing up the OT position, for signing an injury prone WR, for failing to add a difference making edge rusher and blowing a 1st round pick there on a player that doesn't see the field.

 

I'm not happy with Beane lately because whether influenced by McDermott or not he hasn't followed the necessary strategy to take this team to its ultimate goal, but I don't look at the two rosters and see some massive gap. There's a reason KC is favored in the Super Bowl and it's not because a single person out there thinks they have the better roster.

That's fair, I can't disagree, but I will say that the consensus is t at overall they have the better roster by about 5-6 players. Besides the tackle, and RB position, I think they have the edge in pretty much all the position groups. Keller is aging, but is still there, also Rashee Rice tore his ACL, but has to factored in. Also, as much as it pains me to say, Worthy was a difference maker for them, Keon was completely washed out and non existent against both Balt and KC.

[Thurman#1]

51 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I respect your opinion but I think you are incorrect.

 

Josh came in very raw. And young. Much higher ceiling.

 

Keon is also very raw. Young. Much higher ceiling. 
 

Kincaid was not raw. He was old. 
 

There’s less room to grow when you come into the NFL at 24 instead of 21. You aren’t going to grow into your body much more. 
 

I think there’s a better chance Kincaid’s rookie year is one of the best years of his career than there is that he turns into an All Pro next year.

 

 

 

Excuse me, YOU are the one who compared Allen to Kincaid. I only responded.

 

Oh, and Kincaid was old. And from a smaller school, fairly raw. His athleticism and great hands helped him out to a great start, but he hadn't had much route-running or nuance. He was just really athletic.

 

You certainly could be right that his rookie year is one of his best. My guess is that's not how it goes, but either one could absolutely happen.

 

But "there is less room to grow when you come into the NFL at 24 instead of 21" makes little or no sense to me.

 

Most growth in your first three or four years in the league occurs above the neckline. That's where people see the most improvement as things slow down for them and they know where the QB wants them to go and HT run routes at NFL level and so on.

 

Coming in older does likely mean you will reach your older years a bit sooner. Not always, sometimes a lack of mileage can let guys last longer, but certainly it's a concern. But it really does NOT mean you've got less room to grow.

 

And there's plenty of room for putting on a few pounds more and eating better at age 24, as much as age 21. Utah probably has pretty good facilities, but not NFL level, and not real close.

5 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I know all the standard TBD talking points for both. I don’t really know how much I believe it. Good players, sure. Better while working together. Good system that does exceedingly well in the regular season. Positions in our system that don’t seem to require a lot of talent. So like I said, not entirely sure. But I understand you’re. Most feel that way. 

 

 

Alright, not much else to say beyond, "look at the numbers. Then look at who the safeties were playing with." There simply shouldn't be much doubt.

[Sojourner]

17 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Greg Rousseau=Deacon Jones????

For me when you perform the exercise in this thread how obvious it is that Josh is the MVP. I'm not knocking Lamar he's awesome, and Player of the Year, but in terms of value to his team it's obvious.

He might be the “secretary of defense”. He was giving the LBs and secondary appointments with the ball carrier all game. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Just now, Sojourner said:

He might be the “secretary of defense”. He was giving the LBs and secondary appointments with the ball carrier all game. 

I was going nuts watching him give up the edge the whole game, may have been the worst I've ever seen him have play. Also, I kept thinking we'd adjust and we never did.

[notpolian]

1 hour ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

This team is already ahead of the 88 team imo. 

I desperately wish I could agree with you, but let us look at who was on the 88 team:  

 

Kelly, Thomas, Reed, Hull

Smith, Bennett, Talley

All elite in my book, multiple difference makers and HoF.

 

In addition you had Ritcher, Metzelaars, Conlan, Odomes, the list goes on.

 

Unfortunately, the 88 team had waaaay more talent.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

21 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Greg Rousseau=Deacon Jones????

For me when you perform the exercise in this thread how obvious it is that Josh is the MVP. I'm not knocking Lamar he's awesome, and Player of the Year, but in terms of value to his team it's obvious.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneDe00.htm

 

For those of you to young to know Deacon Jones, check out his record-pretty amazing pass rusher in his time.

[Sojourner]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I was going nuts watching him give up the edge the whole game, may have been the worst I've ever seen him have play. Also, I kept thinking we'd adjust and we never did.

Still think he’s a decent player just not $20m+ which is probably what he’s projected to get when his deal is up and the salary cap adjusted again. 
 

22.5 in 4 seasons for that price? 4m a sack of the numbers stay consistent. Rough. 

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, SirAndrew said:

I always look at it this way, if the player was on KC, what would this board say about them? I promise that players like Dawkins, Shakir, Cook, Brown, and Johnson would be considered special talents if they were on KC. I’m sure Andy Reid would scheme Shakir into being an all time great slot receiver as well. We tend to undervalue our best players as a way to justify losing to the Chiefs, and their great coaching staff. Besides Mahomes, who made elite plays for KC? We lost because we didn’t play our best, and were out coached. 

And there lies the #1 problem. McD can take a good player and turn him into a good player.  Reid takes a good player and turns him into a GREAT player. All of our coaches (McD, Brady, Babich, Smiley) are like children getting outcoached by grown ups. If our exact team was coached by KC's people,  I guarantee you we'd have 2-3 championships.  Sean is a good man and a nice dude, but don't kid yourself thinking he's ever getting Josh & Co to a SB.  

[Thurman#1]

46 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'll grant you that he had a nice rookie season.

But one needs to weigh the value of the draft pick used on a player against the total production of said player to gauge whether or not the pick has been a success. One can also factor in the production of players taken at the same position in the same draft after the player in question was taken.

Sam LaPorta and Tucker Kraft, both taken after Kincaid in the 2023 draft, just came off 700 yard 7 TD seasons, with Y/R of 12.1 and 14.1, respectively.

Kincaid is coming off a 448 yard, 2 TD season, with a Y/R of 10.2. 

We needn't even get into the fact that guys like Jayden Reed and Rashee Rice were also drafted after Kincaid, while WR continues to be a weak spot for the Bills.

Kincaid also generally plays no more than 50% of snaps in most games. It's great that the Bills have another talented tight end on the team in Dawson Knox, but is using a 1st round pick on a tight end that only gets 50% of the snap share really a good use of resources (particularly when you're already paying big bucks to the incumbent?)

Again, we can talk about injury, sophomore slump, whatever. The reality is the reality: Kincaid currently appears to be, at best, the third best tight end in his draft class. He currently is not a full time player. His coach and GM just called his second season a disappointment and publicly let it be known that they view him as undersized and under-strength. He just played about 20% of the snaps in a championship game and dropped a key pass that may have led to tie or victory.

As I said: I liked the pick. I have not given up hope on him. I don't think he's a "bust" or anything. But considering the draft capital used on him, the players taken after him (both at tight end and at other positions), the tight end we already had on the roster, and his production to date...I feel that "disappointment" is a perfectly fair label to use thus far. It's up to him to change that.

 

 

 

Glas to hear you haven't given up on him.

 

And IMO Rashee Rice is pretty similar so far. A VG first year then a major drop back, with Rice due to injury. Their total productions are about the same.

 

Anyway, I added this to my first reply to you above, but it's moving so fast you didn't see it.

 

Definitely a drop backwards. But why? Some kind of injury? Disagreement with the OC? Needed more of a blocker at TE? Later in the route progressions and Josh threw to earlier alternatives? Lost the ability to get open? It's just not clear. But maybe getting clearer after that Katherine Fitzgerald tweet

 

"Dawson Knox said that TE Dalton Kincaid was playing on a torn PCL in one knee and with an aggravated other knee -- "It's insane what he's played through."

 

You can find the tweet in this article, if you haven't seen it.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-gm-brandon-beane-weighs-in-on-te-dalton-kincaid-s-sophomore-season/ar-AA1ycXle

 

Beane mentioned it in the PC too. Also implied he needs to build up play strength. So that would appear to be something he will likely be trying to work on also.

 

And I just don't care about the comparisons to TEs in his draft class. There wasn't a lot of sentiment on here, or anywhere, really for drafting LaPorta or Mayer (in the first round, anyway).

 

I care how good a TE he is. I think if he gets the knee thing squared away and has a good offseason we could be seeing him in a very different light.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 06:39 PM by Thurman#1

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

7 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Still think he’s a decent player just not $20m+ which is probably what he’s projected to get when his deal is up and the salary cap adjusted again. 
 

22.5 in 4 seasons for that price? 4m a sack of the numbers stay consistent. Rough. 

He's not good enough IMO to pay him $20+. He seems on the cusp of move up sometimes and then takes a swoon as we saw in the playoffs. I'm curious as to whether McBeane value him the way most of us do.

[Kelly to Allen]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I respect your opinion but I think you are incorrect.

 

Josh came in very raw. And young. Much higher ceiling.

 

Keon is also very raw. Young. Much higher ceiling. 
 

Kincaid was not raw. He was old. 
 

There’s less room to grow when you come into the NFL at 24 instead of 21. You aren’t going to grow into your body much more. 
 

I think there’s a better chance Kincaid’s rookie year is one of the best years of his career than there is that he turns into an All Pro next year.

 

It’s wild.

 

Dorian “spinning like a top on HB misdirection” Williams is more talented than Roquan “3x first team All-Pro” Smith. Lol

 

I think we can agree the ap is ridiculous and wild

22 minutes ago, notpolian said:

I desperately wish I could agree with you, but let us look at who was on the 88 team:  

 

Kelly, Thomas, Reed, Hull

Smith, Bennett, Talley

All elite in my book, multiple difference makers and HoF.

 

In addition you had Ritcher, Metzelaars, Conlan, Odomes, the list goes on.

 

Unfortunately, the 88 team had waaaay more talent.

 

If you add a max Crosby with a good draft I think it's very close, do you agree?