Who are the Bills elite players and do the Bills have enough elite players to win a Super Bowl?

[CincyBillsFan]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

HARD disagree!

We need a GM who can evaluate DL talent. 
What has Beane done to give anyone hope he can do it this year?

 

Elite players? 
Josh

That’s it.

He is the only player on this team who has repeatedly played big in the biggest games. 
Elite O linemen don’t get their arses handed to them, repeatedly like ours did last week.

Cook had a heck of a game and season but Elite backs can catch and block well. Cook can not do either well.

Allen is the only guy on the Bills that opponents game plan against.  To me that's the definition of an elite player.

 

 

[uticaclub]

19 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

😂😂He's an all pro

Was

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Was

So we don't count Mahomes and Kelce this it for KC? 

[Trogdor]

7 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Elite?:

Josh

Dawkins

Cook

 

Good?:

Milano

Oliver

Groot

Shakir

McGovern

Brown

Rapp
Benford

 

There are guys, like AJE, Coleman and Bernard that need to and can get better. And there are guys like Milano and Oliver that could become (or regain) elite status.

Regardless, I think we are seriously lacking in elite, impact players at very key positions (DE, DT, WR, CB) and should look to add one in FA and maybe trade up to get higher picks in the 1st and 2nd and swing for the fences with guys with elite talent and potential

Personally I think Rapp is trash. He was one of the worst safeties in football last year and this year was a heat seeking missile for his own teammates. He constantly bites and goes for the 90s style hit instead of making a plan on the ball. 

[pennstate10]

5 hours ago, DeltaDigital said:

Josh allen is the only "elite" player. 

Dawkins and Cook are really really good. 

We had a thread on this a few weeks back.  

 

A former NFL coach said a team needs 9 blue chip players to win a super bowl.  My list was similar to the OP.

 

The difficulty is how do you define "elite".

 

I guess one definition would be "players on the NFL Network top 100"

 

But thats 100 players.  Are there 100 players in the NFL who are truly ELITE.  So maybe the definition should be top 20, or 25.

 

I think Bills only have one elite player.  A player who the opponent must scheme against.  League wide you'd have Mahomes, Josh, Lamar, Burrow, Chris Jones, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Maxx crosby, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Kyle Hamilton, etc.

 

I think the Bills need a game changer on defense.  Preferably a DT or DE.

[SunDSolar]

18 hours ago, MJS said:

I don't think Shakir is an elite receiver by any stretch of the imagination. But he is good.

 

 

Shakir is elite.  To have the number he had this year while only seeing the field 60ish% of the time is quite amazing.

 

I like the every body eats philosophy but next year this guy needs to be on the field 85+% of the time

[yall]

We have one elite player, an above average RB and a great offensive line.

 

You could rip and replace just about any other position on the team and I don't think it makes a measurable difference.

 

That's a problem and won't let us a Superbowl.

[SirAndrew]

18 minutes ago, SunDSolar said:

 

Shakir is elite.  To have the number he had this year while only seeing the field 60ish% of the time is quite amazing.

 

I like the every body eats philosophy but next year this guy needs to be on the field 85+% of the time

I always look at it this way, if the player was on KC, what would this board say about them? I promise that players like Dawkins, Shakir, Cook, Brown, and Johnson would be considered special talents if they were on KC. I’m sure Andy Reid would scheme Shakir into being an all time great slot receiver as well. We tend to undervalue our best players as a way to justify losing to the Chiefs, and their great coaching staff. Besides Mahomes, who made elite plays for KC? We lost because we didn’t play our best, and were out coached. 

[Jrb1979]

Unless you think history is going to change, then it's McDermott that has to go if the Bills want to win a Super Bowl. 

 

Since 1977, just two coaches have won a first Super Bowl after having been in the job for more than five years, Cowher and Reid. In that time coaches like Reid (with the Eagles), Jeff Fisher, Lovie Smith, Mike Smith, Ron Rivera, Marv Levy, Marv Lewis, Dennis Green, Chuck Knox, John Fox, Dan Reeves, Marty Schottenheimer, Sam Wyche, Jason Garrett, Jack del Rio, Jim Mora and others have had 5+ year spells with teams that have yeilded nothing.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

Disagree with you about Rousseau's motor. He's there every game.

 

His inconsistency comes more from how teams play him, who he's against and what the defensive and offensive game plans are.

[mike22nc]

The makeup of this year's team was good enough to win the super bowl, so by definition the answer was yes for this year. I expect them to improve going into next year, so the answer will likely be yes. 

 

Will it result in a super bowl? Hard to say

Edited Saturday at 06:06 PM by mike22nc

[Thurman#1]

57 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Unless you think history is going to change, then it's McDermott that has to go if the Bills want to win a Super Bowl. 

 

Since 1977, just two coaches have won a first Super Bowl after having been in the job for more than five years, Cowher and Reid. In that time coaches like Reid (with the Eagles), Jeff Fisher, Lovie Smith, Mike Smith, Ron Rivera, Marv Levy, Marv Lewis, Dennis Green, Chuck Knox, John Fox, Dan Reeves, Marty Schottenheimer, Sam Wyche, Jason Garrett, Jack del Rio, Jim Mora and others have had 5+ year spells with teams that have yeilded nothing.

 

 

 

 

This is an immensely poorly written sentence. No, history won't change. Of course, it's written. Might be interpreted differently. Won't change. But could historical trends be broken, particularly historical trends in a pretty damn small sample? Hell, yeah! And you yourself point out two guys who've already done it.

 

Oh, and you forgot Belichick and his five years with the Browns, arguably the GOAT. And Coughin and his eight years of being thought just not good enough in Jax.

 

If you think Reid with the Eagles just wasn't good enough to win a Super Bowl and that Reid with the Chiefs was, well, I'd like to show you some swamp land, uh, I mean vacation property I've got available.

 

An awful lot of those results come from the fact that the coach wasn't quite in the right situation earlier, or that things just went against him. Footballs do bounce funny. A few key plays can make all the difference, a TE might drop a pass that's right in his hands, or Levi Wallace might not look back at Poyer and figure he's far more forward than he actually was rather than actually checking. Stuff like this happens, damn it.

 

What the history reflects is that only one guy wins each year, that fairly few coaches have been in a great position with the right pieces in place to win, and that most probably every year there are three or four coaches good enough to win but that only one actually can win.

 

It's the thing that makes this so goddamn frustrating. This team wasn't comprehensively beaten by the Chiefs except in the first game in 2020. It's been right there for them and stuff has happened.

 

Although if they could get a frickin' excellent pass rusher ...

 

 

Edited Saturday at 02:55 PM by Thurman#1

[uticaclub]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

I always look at it this way, if the player was on KC, what would this board say about them? I promise that players like Dawkins, Shakir, Cook, Brown, and Johnson would be considered special talents if they were on KC. I’m sure Andy Reid would scheme Shakir into being an all time great slot receiver as well. We tend to undervalue our best players as a way to justify losing to the Chiefs, and their great coaching staff. Besides Mahomes, who made elite plays for KC? We lost because we didn’t play our best, and were out coached. 

Many people who claim we lack talent often point to the performances of former players on other teams. Aside from Wyatt Teller, most former Bills players have had minimal impact elsewhere. For instance, Chicago fans aren't fond of Tremaine Edmunds, and Big Phil has struggled to find success on other teams. Levi Wallace went from being our CB2 to a depth player in Pittsburgh and was cut from Denver before finishing the season. While the national narrative isn't always accurate, the reality is that the Bills are essentially Josh Allen and a group of role players.

 

We need to change our talent evaluation and draft processes, which is a significant challenge for a regime that is now in its eighth year.

20 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 I don't think any Bills fan is happy with the status of our DL and I think everyone agrees that it needs to be a focus for Beane in the free agency and in the draft.  Getting more and consistent pressure is this off-season's biggest priority, but this is a story for another thread. 

DL is always a focus and always swings & misses, Beane is well below the mendoza line when it comes to DL selections

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

13 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Allen is the only guy on the Bills that opponents game plan against.  To me that's the definition of an elite player.

 

 

Well they would be idiots if they aren’t game planning for Cook at this point. And if we gave him the ball more, we probably win. 
 

But we have had the elite players (prime Diggs, White before the injuries, our safety combo) and that didn’t work either. I genuinely believe they are a game wrecker on defense and a legit threat in the passing game away. 

57 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Disagree with you about Rousseau's motor. He's there every game.

 

His inconsistency comes more from how teams play him, who he's against and what the defensive and offensive game plans are.

Agreed he is like the best version of Kelsey. He plays hard, is good against the run, will make an occasional sack, but has no special burst. The best version of him would be a great rotational DE. But he would be much better if they had a great DE across from him. Finding a great pass rusher would be like steroids to this D (🤗 viagra if you will).

[Mikie2times]

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Well they would be idiots if they aren’t game planning for Cook at this point. And if we gave him the ball more, we probably win. 
 

But we have had the elite players (prime Diggs, White before the injuries, our safety combo) and that didn’t work either. I genuinely believe they are a game wrecker on defense and a legit threat in the passing game away. 

Agreed he is like the best version of Kelsey. He plays hard, is good against the run, will make an occasional sack, but has no special burst. The best version of him would be a great rotational DE. But he would be much better if they had a great DE across from him. Finding a great pass rusher would be like steroids to this D (🤗 viagra if you will).

Hyde and Poyer were low starting level players elsewhere. Rapp and Hamlin aren’t starters anywhere and they looked decent at times.
 

Its so hard to tell with this defense just how good anybody in the secondary actually is (I think White was a great player prior to to injury).
 

Agree on the pass rusher. 

[colin]

elite is a bit of a tough term, are there 100 elite players in the nfl?  64, 32?

 

I think you can put players into the "blue chip" or whatever bracket -- players that make players around them better, who could start for all bet very few teams, who everyone wants.

 

now, some of that is positional.  everyone needs CBs and OL/DT just not enough men on the planet who can do that job, so those guys are "elite" or blue chip just for being very good at their position.  low value positions, TE, OG/OC (still need them, but no where near OT), safety, kinda running back (the rub there is they make huge impacts in the game, but they seem to be good out of college and fall off quickly, so people don't like to sign them and the pass game is more important now more than say 10 years ago).

 

qb doesn't even fall into this.  qb is so so important and impactful that going from a just replacement guy (say bridgewater or sam darnold) to a seasoned guy with flaws but solid production (kirk cousins) means back up/maybe gets a contract on a discount to start to 40MM+++ a year, and there is a huge premium on anyone who is young and maybe can become higher level (goff, lawrence, dude in zona) so they get 50+ anyhow.  that bust off in NYG got 45 a year, but they let barklay walk for 10mm.  to me that's more of a resource management/contract thing than how much the individual payers impact winning games.

 

so, from that POV who are the bill high value players, the ones who make their entire side of the ball better?

 

1 Allen.  Literally the GOAT.  he's worth at least 2 and maybe more actual elite talents at nearly any other position

2 Cook.  Our best weapon, makes an impact.  I think if he got to like above average at pass pro he's elite.  he's a top 5 tail back in the nfl

3 dawkins.  not the best LT, but a top 5 one.  huge positional value

4 brown. lower than LT value, but he's an actual monster.  gets exposed in some outside rush situations vs great pressure teams, but allen was least sacked ever and brown run blocks like a maniac

5 benford.  position value, and is a very very good corner.  not prime gilmore or ramsey or surtain, but more often than not takes away or limits a teams best weapon.  big and athletic but not a kyle hamilton (lower position value tho) who is just so big and athletic and skilled that he's an impact on every play.  I have injury concerns

 

next layer

 

6 Johnson.  lower position value than outside cb, but at his best was legit our best player on D in many games vs run and pass.  small and not a natural cover corner like the top outside guys, but solid in everything and an absolute dog

7 Milano.   Lower position value, biggest issue is his injuries.  in 2022 he was maybe behind warner and one or two other guys as the best off ball lb in the nfl.  lacks the speed power size combo of a prime roquan smith/cj mosely (how do they all end up at baltimore?) but always made large impacts.  im hopeful he can get back to form in 2025, but the most likely thing is he will be really good but not what he was

8 ed oliver.  very inconsistent, gets washed in the run too much.  he basically plays rock paper scissors all the time.  he disappears too much and isn't a big guy at all so he can't just plug up like other top dts can.  when he's on he shoots gaps recklessly and just totally disrupts plays with individual play.  his games vs the rams and detroit show me who is more than any others.  rams game he was basically trash, no impact at all, nothing close to a forced punt or turnover and didn't get a sniff of a not mobile qb.  detroit he totally dominated the game, and covered up huge secondary deficiencies by dominating vs the best O and about the best OL in football.

9 Groot.  big long strong DE, except for some breakdowns vs mahomes has been a top of the pile run/edge defender.  creates pass rush but cannot impact the passing game effectively on a consistent basis

10 Shakir.  small, not fast, not a super crisp route runner.  plucky tough smart dependable and has a mind link with allen.  our best (only?) passing weapon, but limited in what Ds he can attack from where

 

IMO those are our top 10 players.  Bernard and williams show flashes, but injuries/mistakes keep them below.  i was hoping kinkaid would break out this year but he did the opposite, im sure a pcl didn't hep, but he's physically weak as an nfl TE and he's not young for a 2 year player.  a cabinet of steroids and weight room addiction might put him in the dangerous offensive weapon category.  torrence might become more fleet of foot and aware and become a top 10 G, but he's no there at all yet.

 

to answer the question, do we have enough elite talent to win a chip: i think we are knocking on the door or are one or two players away in that regard.  a guy who could beat out one of the 10 above at outside wr would mean we are 6ish players on O who are in that upper tier, with josh allen and a line like we have that's a shot at an all time O with a little OL play improvement in pass pro (i mean very little, just a tiny bit).

 

on d our scheme and talent leaves a ton to be desired.  we had far and away the worst d in the afc playoffs, and based on our prior playoffs, i think it's safe to say our D would have been the worst or tied for the worst even if it was it's best, say our 2021 or 2022 D.  i think get the outside wr talent, and just plug up our many athletic and player holes w picks on d (safety, CB but i would also sign a guy if he's there, DL/pass rush where a top guy would help too, LB should be solid but you worry about depth given injury history, and our DTs kinda totally suck nearly as bad as safety).

[FireChans]

21 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The definition of elite is subjective.  Sure All-pro and Pro Bowl nods are good indicators if a player is considered elite, but they also, especially the Pro Bowl, tend to be a little bit like popularity contests.  For example, take Spencer Brown, the guy allowed 1 sack all season and only 2 pressures.  That's it.  IMHO those are the stats of an elite tackle, despite him not being recognized as such by PFF grading system or selected for the Pro Bowl.   

 

The reason I created this thread is that this is an important discussion and it was prompted by a comment in another thread that Beane has not drafted any elite players for the defense.  My initial reaction to that statement was that it simply wasn't true, but generally speaking, the comment does have some merit.  The only Beane drafted defenders I'd consider elite are Taron Johnson and Christian Benford.  

 

So who are the elite Bills?

 

1) Josh Allen - Obviously.  IMHO he is the best QB in football, including Mahomes, but he lacks enough good WRs to make him unstoppable

2) James Cook - If the Chiefs game didn't solidify his elite status for even the I hate RBs crowd, I don't know what will.  

3) Dion Dawkins - Multi-time Pro Bowler.  He is one of the best tackles in football

4) Spencer Brown - He has improved every year in the NFL and this season was spectacular.  

5) Christian Benford - Was 5th overall in PFF grading system out of 223 DBs.  

6) Taron Johnson - Arguably one of the best 2 or 3 slot corners in the NFL.  

7) Khalil Shakir - Like Brown & Cook, has improved every year. 2nd in the NFL in YAC this past season.

8.) Matt Milano - When healthy he is one of the best LBs in football.  Improved every game this season once he finally became mostly healthy.  I think the elite game is still there.

 

Developing players 

1) Terrel Bernard - 100+ tackles 2 straight seasons, but fell off 2023 numbers due to injuries.  I wish would McD to use him more on the pass rush.

2) O'Cyrus Torrence - How many guys start 33 of their 1st 34 games on the Oline coming right out school? No sacks allowed this past season.

3) Dalton Kincaid - Has all the skills to be an elite pass catching TE.  Knee injuries hampered this past season.  Lets see how he recovers.

4) Keon Coleman - Has the size and hands to be a good to excellent physical boundary receiver like a Higgins or Pittman, but needs to be more dedicated to get to that level.

5) McGovern - 1st time center did an elite job this season.  Let's see how year 2 goes.

 

Very Good but not great

1) Rousseau - I like Groot a great deal, but he very inconsistent game to game.  Part of that is how the Bills have utilized him, but his motor isn't always on

2) Oliver - Much like Rousseau, inconsistent motor.  We have all seen him dominate, but also seen him disappear.

 

So is this enough "elite" talent to win a Super Bowl?  I think it is with some smart additions at WR, DL and another good CB.  Remember the Bills were likely one Kincaid catch away from being in the Super Bowl this season without an adequate defense.  

 

Your elite list would not be mine.

 

You have a good/very good list for the most part.

 

Allen, Brown, Dawkins and maybe Benford. That’s it.

 

James Cook is VERY good and imo still a step behind Henry, Barkley and a healthy CMC.

 

Shakir had 900 yards. Good slot with elite slot traits. Not elite.

 

Taron and Milano are living off their names a little bit. Milano shook off some rust towards the end, but I’m not sure he’s the same guy he was 2 years ago. Ditto with Taron. He got banged up but he’s had probably his worst year as our slot since like 2020.

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Hyde and Poyer were low starting level players elsewhere. Rapp and Hamlin aren’t starters anywhere and they looked decent at times.
 

Its so hard to tell with this defense just how good anybody in the secondary actually is (I think White was a great player prior to to injury).
 

Agree on the pass rusher. 

In their prime, they were arguably the best safety combo in the nfl. 

[Mikie2times]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

In their prime, they were arguably the best safety combo in the nfl. 

And yet good teams still did whatever they wanted against our secondary and neither were considered anything more than average starters from the teams we got them from. With very little free agent interest for either one. I’m not saying I know the answer here, but I think people who just assume they were, as you say “ the best safety combo in the league” don’t really have any way to prove that and it gets confused in a system where Rapp and Hamlin can actually look serviceable. When zero chance exists they could start for anybody in football.