Mock draft season

[LEBills]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I worry that his skill set is too similar to what we've already had, but my usual disclaimer is that how the player turns out is what really matters. I'm not going to turn my nose up at any decently high WR investment. Beane just has to be right about the player.

 

I'm ideally looking for more of a speed/separation WR from this draft. Matthew Golden seems like the one player available at #30 that would fit the profile and be worth the pick, but admittedly it's hard for me to imagine him being the BPA at that pick. A trade up for Egbuka is the other 1st round option if he drops low enough. I know you said he's a slot WR but it doesn't seem like a Ladd McConkey situation where he's likely to a slot-only at the next level. Seems like his ability to get off press and separate outside is a matter of experience more than physical ability.

 

And yeah that's why I keep coming back to Higgins (or Metcalf if Seattle is willing to trade him). The draft just doesn't present a lot of good options to fix the WR room. It's either use our 1st round pick and still add someone like Darius Slayton/Hollywood Brown, or make a major investment in FA/trade and then still draft one before round 5. I can't imagine just adding like a Darius Slayton and a round 4 WR. If that happens I can almost guarantee we'll again be looking for a mid-season trade to fill out the room.

Yea for Harris, the Ole Miss offense is a bit weird but I think I see enough separation  and speed that he could be a really good player outside. Injuries are my biggest concern with him.

Egbuka played over 70% in the slot in college and only caught 14 deep throws over the past 3 years. He is a good route runner and if put in more of those situations, I’m sure he could make some plays but I’d prefer to pass. I’d be happy with Golden, Bond or getting two of the other outside receivers later in the draft (Bryant, Higgins, Felton, etc)

 

Ive joined you on the get Higgins bandwagon. That gives Josh an alpha WR who has shown he can do it in the playoffs, frees up our draft, and then we can draft later WRs to try and develop. I don’t think we will win the Higgins sweepstakes or Metcalf but I’m hopeful.

 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Yea for Harris, the Ole Miss offense is a bit weird but I think I see enough separation  and speed that he could be a really good player outside. Injuries are my biggest concern with him.

Egbuka played over 70% in the slot in college and only caught 14 deep throws over the past 3 years. He is a good route runner and if put in more of those situations, I’m sure he could make some plays but I’d prefer to pass. I’d be happy with Golden, Bond or getting two of the other outside receivers later in the draft (Bryant, Higgins, Felton, etc)

 

Ive joined you on the get Higgins bandwagon. That gives Josh an alpha WR who has shown he can do it in the playoffs, frees up our draft, and then we can draft later WRs to try and develop. I don’t think we will win the Higgins sweepstakes or Metcalf but I’m hopeful.

 

 

I was the same on Egbuka but the more I watch the more I like him. He has definitely grown on me. I do have a conscious bias that route runners are kinda my thing for the most part at receiver but I think he can play outside at the next level (and I mean predominantly outside, not take a few snaps out there) and win. That said, if the option is any kind of big trade up, no I'm not about that. He isn't worth the sort of price I'd have been happy the Bills paying for BTJ or Addison in the past two drafts IMO. If he got to say #26 and they want to jump in front of Baltimore (who could be a WR team if they cut Bateman) or Washington (who definitely could be a WR team) at the cost of a 4th round pick? Sure I could live with that. But wouldn't pay up any greater cost. Golden I have kind of gone the other way a bit. 10 days ago if he was there I'd have had a hard time passing, but the hands and the sloppy route running do concern me a bit. He is still on my shortlist at #30 if he makes it there but would depend on what was there at DL and corner.  

 

Interesting you have Higgins in your batch with Bryant and Felton. I have him a tier above them, and a day 2 pick, but testing will be big for him. If he runs slow I expect him to fall more into that early day 3 territory. 

[LEBills]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I was the same on Egbuka but the more I watch the more I like him. He has definitely grown on me. I do have a conscious bias that route runners are kinda my thing for the most part at receiver but I think he can play outside at the next level (and I mean predominantly outside, not take a few snaps out there) and win. That said, if the option is any kind of big trade up, no I'm not about that. He isn't worth the sort of price I'd have been happy the Bills paying for BTJ or Addison in the past two drafts IMO. If he got to say #26 and they want to jump in front of Baltimore (who could be a WR team if they cut Bateman) or Washington (who definitely could be a WR team) at the cost of a 4th round pick? Sure I could live with that. But wouldn't pay up any greater cost. Golden I have kind of gone the other way a bit. 10 days ago if he was there I'd have had a hard time passing, but the hands and the sloppy route running do concern me a bit. He is still on my shortlist at #30 if he makes it there but would depend on what was there at DL and corner.  

 

Interesting you have Higgins in your batch with Bryant and Felton. I have him a tier above them, and a day 2 pick, but testing will be big for him. If he runs slow I expect him to fall more into that early day 3 territory. 

Yea we will see how he tests and measures also. I’m just not sure he has a special physical trait to go along with his route running, but if he did he probably wouldn’t be available in our range. I would be ok with Egbuka at 30 if they want to try him out wide, and if it doesn’t work you have a cost controlled slot receiver as Shakir comes available for a second contract.

 

Of the two Texas WRs, I think Bond is the more talented if healthy. But Golden did prop up the Texas passing offense with Bond hurt down the stretch. At 30 I’d be ok with him too but yes may prefer a defensive player at that spot.

 

Higgins is actually my outside WR5 (whereas Bryant and Felton are 9 and 10) atm as I am working through things. But I think being out for most of the year last year may drop him closer to that rd3 range with the others. Especially since I can’t find much detail on what his knee injury was.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, BisonBilly said:

I really like Isiah bond actually.  4.3 speed has good jukes in his cuts, and isn’t afraid of contact. 

 

Bond in the 2nd round has grown on me. My initial hesitation was he makes Curtis Samuel a redundancy, but then again why should Samuel influence our draft strategy at all given how disappointing he was? So yeah I'm all about getting a younger faster talent to fill that role even if it means giving up on Samuel. I just don't know if Beane will be willing to do that.

[RyanC883]

 

wanted to see what happened if I took a RB first.  He was also BPA in PFFs system.  Not bad getting Harmon and Collins.  Unsure of Walker given his competition level.  Braynt and Swinson and Higgins looks like steals and doubt they last that long.  

[OldTimer1960]

51 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

wanted to see what happened if I took a RB first.  He was also BPA in PFFs system.  Not bad getting Harmon and Collins.  Unsure of Walker given his competition level.  Braynt and Swinson and Higgins looks like steals and doubt they last that long.  

Double dipping at DT is interesting given that it is probably the strongest group in the draft.  I’m guessing you are planning for a starting CB in FA.  I think at least 1 CB needs to be in their draft plans even if they sign a viable starting FA.  I expect that they will lose Rasul Douglas and it will not surprise me if Elam is sent packing - he just isn’t working out.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

Yea we will see how he tests and measures also. I’m just not sure he has a special physical trait to go along with his route running, but if he did he probably wouldn’t be available in our range. I would be ok with Egbuka at 30 if they want to try him out wide, and if it doesn’t work you have a cost controlled slot receiver as Shakir comes available for a second contract.

 

Of the two Texas WRs, I think Bond is the more talented if healthy. But Golden did prop up the Texas passing offense with Bond hurt down the stretch. At 30 I’d be ok with him too but yes may prefer a defensive player at that spot.

 

Higgins is actually my outside WR5 (whereas Bryant and Felton are 9 and 10) atm as I am working through things. But I think being out for most of the year last year may drop him closer to that rd3 range with the others. Especially since I can’t find much detail on what his knee injury was.

 

Ah okay. I agree with everything you said there. That is my exact thing on Egbuka too. Is there a special trait. I said to @Dr. Who yesterday I want to see the testing because he is so smooth maybe it hides the explosion a bit. Or maybe it is just not there. 

 

And we are actually pretty aligned on those other guys too. I have Higgins at WR6 (third round grade). 

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ah okay. I agree with everything you said there. That is my exact thing on Egbuka too. Is there a special trait. I said to @Dr. Who yesterday I want to see the testing because he is so smooth maybe it hides the explosion a bit. Or maybe it is just not there. 

 

And we are actually pretty aligned on those other guys too. I have Higgins at WR6 (third round grade). 

Yea it will be interesting to see his measurements. He did outrun the Marshall defense on a screen pass so the speed may be there. I will say that he was clutch for OSU, he has just been there so long he is a bit taken for granted. Kind of like how Chris Olave was.
 

Egbuka is my top slot WR and so when the rankings are combined puts Horton at WR6 too. He is another guy that ran a million short routes and didn’t get to show his speed enough in college. 

[BisonBilly]

has anyone else noticed how wildly different player rankings are this year? 
 

one player I like is Nick Emmanwori S from South Carolina.  He’s 6’4” and runs sub 4.4 40.

 

some mocks have him going 19-20-21.  Others have him as a 3rd rounder.  
 

There’s many other similar examples.  Why so crazy this year? 

[Buffalo716]

14 minutes ago, BisonBilly said:

has anyone else noticed how wildly different player rankings are this year? 
 

one player I like is Nick Emmanwori S from South Carolina.  He’s 6’4” and runs sub 4.4 40.

 

some mocks have him going 19-20-21.  Others have him as a 3rd rounder.  
 

There’s many other similar examples.  Why so crazy this year? 

That's typically how it always is outside of a top 20 consensus prospect 

 

The players ranked 30 to 85 are probably jumbled all over the board.. some might have a guy at 30 somebody might have him at 60.. somebody might have somebody at 27.. somebody else has him at 40

 

Outside of the consensus top 15 or 20 there's usually a lot of disparity.. that's why even NFL teams draft guys in the first round who the pundits said they had a second or third round grade on..  there's a disparity in grades 

 

[Bongo]

 

OK, this and I buy you a cup of coffee gets you a cup but just did this one. Tear it up, those with knowledge.

 

should note I only did a 4 rounder. Starting to familiarize but definitely don’t know guys in the later rounds.

 

Edited Monday at 09:48 PM by Bongo

[HappyDays]

For anyone looking at WRs as hard as I am, here's a 7 minute video showing every target to Matthew Golden in 2024:

 

 

Obviously these sorts of videos will be biased in favor of positive plays because it's only plays where he earned a target, but you can get a pretty good sense of the player's abilities.

 

Watching the video just now I wish I had said "wow" a couple times. There is nothing flashy about his game. He seems like a good all around WR that profiles best as a #2 at the next level, with possible #1 upside only if he becomes a master of his craft as a route runner.

 

Two positives jump out. His comeback routes look day one NFL ready. Sells vertical, quickly breaks to come back to the ball, has a good feel for keeping the CB out of the window and creating YAC opportunity. Allen loves those routes so I really like that. Also his work against press coverage sticks out. Again this is just plays where he's targeted so I can't say how well he does on a down to down basis, but at least in these clips he is seamlessly shaking every press he gets and making it look almost effortless.

 

Biggest downside I see is very little contribution in the red zone. Doesn't seem to separate well in that tight area and is not a contested catch guy by any means.

 

Nothing about his game screams 1st round talent but you have to rely on luck for a player with 1st round talent to fall to #30. I'm usually in favor of higher ceilings in the 1st round and that's not really Golden's profile at all, but if they took him I would feel pretty comfortable that he would slot in right away as a starting outside WR.

[RyanC883]

8 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Double dipping at DT is interesting given that it is probably the strongest group in the draft.  I’m guessing you are planning for a starting CB in FA.  I think at least 1 CB needs to be in their draft plans even if they sign a viable starting FA.  I expect that they will lose Rasul Douglas and it will not surprise me if Elam is sent packing - he just isn’t working out.

 

Yeah I wanted to get a CB in the draft.  Looking back that would be Revel from East Carolina in Rd. 1.  

[Richard Noggin]

No trades. Exciting value and talent in top 3 picks imho. 

 

[ghostwriter]

30: R1 P30 DL T. J. Sanders - South Carolina

 

56: R2 P24 EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku - Boston College

 

62: R2 P30 WR Savion Williams - TCU

 

108: R4 P7 S Lathan Ransom - Ohio State

 

131: R4 P30 CB Jermari Harris - Iowa

 

137: R4 P36 RB Devin Neal - Kansas

 

169: R5 P32 S Jaylen Reed - Penn State

 

176: R6 P1 EDGE Kaimon Rucker - North Carolina

 

203: R6 P28 CB Jaylin Smith - USC

 

205: R6 P30 WR Elijhah Badger - Florida

[ghostwriter]

30: R1 P30 EDGE Princely Umanmielen - Mississippi

 

56: R2 P24 DL Deone Walker - Kentucky

 

62: R2 P30 S Nick Emmanwori - South Carolina

 

108: R4 P7 DL Ty Robinson - Nebraska

 

131: R4 P30 RB D.J. Giddens - Kansas State

 

137: R4 P36 CB Jermari Harris - Iowa

 

169: R5 P32 S Dante Trader Jr. - Maryland

 

176: R6 P1 TE Mitchell Evans - Notre Dame

 

203: R6 P28 DL Darius Alexander - Toledo

 

205: R6 P30 WR Will Sheppard - Colorado

[Sojourner]

7 hours ago, ghostwriter said:

30: R1 P30 EDGE Princely Umanmielen - Mississippi

 

56: R2 P24 DL Deone Walker - Kentucky

 

62: R2 P30 S Nick Emmanwori - South Carolina

 

108: R4 P7 DL Ty Robinson - Nebraska

 

131: R4 P30 RB D.J. Giddens - Kansas State

 

137: R4 P36 CB Jermari Harris - Iowa

 

169: R5 P32 S Dante Trader Jr. - Maryland

 

176: R6 P1 TE Mitchell Evans - Notre Dame

 

203: R6 P28 DL Darius Alexander - Toledo

 

205: R6 P30 WR Will Sheppard - Colorado

Not saying it won’t because we aren’t even at the doorstep of the draft yet but man that is some insane talent in the first 4 picks. Definitely the first 3. 
 

Jemari Harris is a guy that I’m starting to like a lot the more I watch. Seems like he could be a solid boundary corner. The only thing I’m noticing is he lacks decent physical elements; strength and speed. For that area of the draft though, would be a perfect selection of those concerns translate to combine/pro day testing. 

[OldTimer1960]

19 hours ago, Bongo said:

 

OK, this and I buy you a cup of coffee gets you a cup but just did this one. Tear it up, those with knowledge.

 

should note I only did a 4 rounder. Starting to familiarize but definitely don’t know guys in the later rounds.

 

I think Sawyer as a consolation prize in the later rounds 2nd is OK.  I am no scout, but in the games I watched, I preferred JT Tuimoloau.  To my eyes Tuimoloau looks smoother, more flexible and just as powerful.  Again, no expert here.

[HappyDays]

Daniel Jeremiah's latest mock:

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2025-nfl-mock-draft-2-0

 

He has us taking Matthew Golden:

 

Quote

The Bills have needs on defense, but this is strictly a value play. Golden would be a perfect fit with Josh Allen. 

 

Interesting that he has Malaki Starks dropping to #32, I think if he falls that far no way Beane would pass on him. Seems like a perfect FS fit for our defense.

 

Also interesting that he has Tetairoa McMillan fall to the Bucs at #19. In that scenario we should think real hard about trading up with Seattle at #18. He's an elite WR prospect in a weak WR class and profiles as a Mike Evans or Tee Higgins type that would thrive with Allen.

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Daniel Jeremiah's latest mock:

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2025-nfl-mock-draft-2-0

 

He has us taking Matthew Golden:

 

 

Interesting that he has Malaki Starks dropping to #32, I think if he falls that far no way Beane would pass on him. Seems like a perfect FS fit for our defense.

 

Also interesting that he has Tetairoa McMillan fall to the Bucs at #19. In that scenario we should think real hard about trading up with Seattle at #18. He's an elite WR prospect in a weak WR class and profiles as a Mike Evans or Tee Higgins type that would thrive with Allen.

I don’t think l would pass on James Pearce who he has falling out of the first due to character concerns. The Bills need high level defensive lineman though and can’t afford to let him get by them with two teams notoriously known for taking high level players with character concerns. 
 

I actually think that McMillian going between 10-20 makes sense as he was vastly overrated early in the process. Had him at 12 in my first mock but could see him going later