Mock draft season

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think late 2nd, nobody. The other WRs in that sort of range are more slot guys IMO. 

 

I think you are looking at late 3rd round / 4th round maybe into the 5th round for the next batch of perimeter players. Tai Felton, Maryland is someone worth keeping an eye on he has some speed, as is Troy Horton, Colorado State. Pat Bryant, Illinois is more a big bodied long strider but I think has a chance to be a legit boundary player (he just isn't maybe the vertical separator we need) and Will Sheppard from Colorado who might be second half of day 3 but I like his separation skills. 

Thanks very much. One last question on this topic: if Egbuka fell a bit, would you consider trading up for him, or is the preference still D line or maybe CB in the first?

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Thanks very much. One last question on this topic: if Egbuka fell a bit, would you consider trading up for him, or is the preference still D line or maybe CB in the first?

 

Are you spying on me? 😃

 

I ask because I spent an hour this morning going back over Egbuka and I think I am moving him up to my WR2. I think after McMillan if you told me there was one receiver in this draft most likely to be a true #1 in 3 years time I would say it would be him.

 

My concerns with him on a first watch were I don't see explosiveness. When I watch again I wonder if I am just not appreciating it because of how smooth he is and I know I made that mistake with Garrett Wilson in that same offense. I liked Wilson plenty fine but I didn't have an elite grade on him like I should have because I didn't see a lot of suddenness and I realised sometimes with guys who are this smooth in their route running and their breaks it is easy to miss the explosion. I think his 3 cone, his broad jump and his 40 time are going to be relevant to the evaluation on him. If he tests well on the explosiveness drills I will definitely end up with him as WR2 and might even end up with a 1st on him (indicative 2nd currently though within my top 32 - remember grades and round predictions not the same).

 

So in answer to your question, let's put a pin in it and revisit after the Combine. It might be a yes. 

[H2o]

If the draft played out like this, and I stood pat with no trades, the defensive front would be completely remade in 3 days. (And you KNOW I always have at least one ND player in the mix )

 

30.Kenneth Grant - DT - Michigan

 

56.Shemar Stewart - EDGE - Texas A&M

 

62.Deone Walker - DT - Kentucky

 

108.Dorian Strong - CB - Virginia Tech

 

131.Jaylen Reed - S - Penn State

 

171.Nick Nash - WR - San Jose State

 

175.Jamon Dumas-Johnson - LB - Kentucky

 

179.Nohl Williams - CB - California

 

181.Mitchell Evans - TE - Notre Dame

 

208.Patrick Jenkins - DT - Tulane

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Thanks very much. One last question on this topic: if Egbuka fell a bit, would you consider trading up for him, or is the preference still D line or maybe CB in the first?

 

Tampa Bay at #19 would be the target if they want Egbuka badly enough. By the trade value chart one of our 2nd rounders would get us up that far. I'm not sure Beane would do it though, he's been unwilling to part with his 2nd rounders. Maybe missing out on BTJ last year because of that unwillingness will make him more bold.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Tampa Bay at #19 would be the target if they want Egbuka badly enough. By the trade value chart one of our 2nd rounders would get us up that far. I'm not sure Beane would do it though, he's been unwilling to part with his 2nd rounders. Maybe missing out on BTJ last year because of that unwillingness will make him more bold.

 

It feels slightly the wrong way round to me to not be willing to go up for Addison and BTJ but then go up further for Egbuka. But there we are. 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It feels slightly the wrong way round to me to not be willing to go up for Addison and BTJ but then go up further for Egbuka. But there we are. 

It’s not happening

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It feels slightly the wrong way round to me to not be willing to go up for Addison and BTJ but then go up further for Egbuka. But there we are. 

 

Unfortunately they've backed themselves into a corner at WR because they didn't take advantage of earlier opportunities.

[TheBeaneBandit]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Are you spying on me? 😃

 

I ask because I spent an hour this morning going back over Egbuka and I think I am moving him up to my WR2. I think after McMillan if you told me there was one receiver in this draft most likely to be a true #1 in 3 years time I would say it would be him.

 

My concerns with him on a first watch were I don't see explosiveness. When I watch again I wonder if I am just not appreciating it because of how smooth he is and I know I made that mistake with Garrett Wilson in that same offense. I liked Wilson plenty fine but I didn't have an elite grade on him like I should have because I didn't see a lot of suddenness and I realised sometimes with guys who are this smooth in their route running and their breaks it is easy to miss the explosion. I think his 3 cone, his broad jump and his 40 time are going to be relevant to the evaluation on him. If he tests well on the explosiveness drills I will definitely end up with him as WR2 and might even end up with a 1st on him (indicative 2nd currently though within my top 32 - remember grades and round predictions not the same).

 

So in answer to your question, let's put a pin in it and revisit after the Combine. It might be a yes. 

Sometimes TBD gets creepy and I'm here for it!🤣

[KOKBILLS]

I'm seeing a lot of Kenneth Grant at 30 mocks...

 

At this point of the process...Grant is pretty much my #1 guy for the Bills based on all things considered. I think he's that massive piece in the middle we've lacked. With the emphasis on massive of course.

 

That being said I'm pretty sure he's our Brian Thomas Jr of this Draft. Unless we are willing to move up into the low 20's I don't think it's a reality. He's just too much of a freak with too good a floor to get to 30...JMO... 

[TheBeaneBandit]

27 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

I'm seeing a lot of Kenneth Grant at 30 mocks...

 

At this point of the process...Grant is pretty much my #1 guy for the Bills based on all things considered. I think he's that massive piece in the middle we've lacked. With the emphasis on massive of course.

 

That being said I'm pretty sure he's our Brian Thomas Jr of this Draft. Unless we are willing to move up into the low 20's I don't think it's a reality. He's just too much of a freak with too good a floor to get to 30...JMO... 

You just said everything I would say about Grant. He is an absolute perfect fit but we would potentially have to trade up 10 spots.

[Mike in Horseheads]

How far can we move up in the draft if we trade our first, second and first next year?

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Unfortunately they've backed themselves into a corner at WR because they didn't take advantage of earlier opportunities.

 

When I was asked to go back and look at who I've mocked to the Bills over the years since Josh it is really staggering. I had them trading back into the end of 1 for DK in 2019, taking Higgins in 2020, taking Olave in 2022, taking Addison in 23, taking BTJ last year. Of those obviously the last 3 didn't get to them although Addison and BTJ definitely got into trade up range. But I've had receiver as a need before Diggs signed, while he was here and after he left. And the Bills just have not shown that urgency. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

10 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

How far can we move up in the draft if we trade our first, second and first next year?

I would guess about 14th maybe?

[Dr. Who]

If you play enough of these scenarios, one of them is going to throw you a completely unrealistic payoff that hits on multiple needs. I made a small trade back from 62 to add 134. Harmon at 56 is bonkers. Egbuka at 30 isn't happening either.

 

30.

Emeka EgbukaWR Ohio State

56.

Derrick HarmonDT Oregon

65.

T.J. SandersDT South Carolina

108.

Quincy RileyCB Louisville

131.

Smael Mondon Jr.LB Georgia

134.

Malachi MooreS Alabama

171.

Sai'vion JonesEDGE LSU

175.

Oluwafemi OladejoLB UCLA

179.

Nohl WilliamsCB California

181.

Marcus TateOG Clemson

Edited Monday at 02:18 PM by Dr. Who

[LEBills]

14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Unfortunately they've backed themselves into a corner at WR because they didn't take advantage of earlier opportunities.

Yep. Keon is the only receiver we have drafted in the first three rounds in Josh’s entire career. Egbuka is a nice slot receiver but our outside receiver needs an upgrade. Tre Harris is the best of the outside options this year imo.
 

But honestly, Tee Higgins like you have said before is the best option assuming he hits the market. Won’t cost any draft capital and he has been great against the Chiefs in the postseason. Also, frees us up to draft defense and developmental offensive players. 

[The Jokeman]

12 hours ago, KOKBILLS said:

I'm seeing a lot of Kenneth Grant at 30 mocks...

 

At this point of the process...Grant is pretty much my #1 guy for the Bills based on all things considered. I think he's that massive piece in the middle we've lacked. With the emphasis on massive of course.

 

That being said I'm pretty sure he's our Brian Thomas Jr of this Draft. Unless we are willing to move up into the low 20's I don't think it's a reality. He's just too much of a freak with too good a floor to get to 30...JMO... 

Tyleik Williams is no slouch and likely to be available at 30. 

Edited Monday at 02:28 PM by The Jokeman

[KOKBILLS]

6 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Tyleik Williams is no slouch and likely to be available at 30. 

 

He may be the best run defender in the Draft... The question with Williams is whether or not he's going to get on the field much in obvious passing downs. But I think for what he brings he's about as safe a pick as you're going to get in the late 1st-early 2nd... I imagine Baltimore does not want us to Draft Williams... 

[HappyDays]

36 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Tre Harris is the best of the outside options this year imo.

 

I worry that his skill set is too similar to what we've already had, but my usual disclaimer is that how the player turns out is what really matters. I'm not going to turn my nose up at any decently high WR investment. Beane just has to be right about the player.

 

I'm ideally looking for more of a speed/separation WR from this draft. Matthew Golden seems like the one player available at #30 that would fit the profile and be worth the pick, but admittedly it's hard for me to imagine him being the BPA at that pick. A trade up for Egbuka is the other 1st round option if he drops low enough. I know you said he's a slot WR but it doesn't seem like a Ladd McConkey situation where he's likely to a slot-only at the next level. Seems like his ability to get off press and separate outside is a matter of experience more than physical ability.

 

And yeah that's why I keep coming back to Higgins (or Metcalf if Seattle is willing to trade him). The draft just doesn't present a lot of good options to fix the WR room. It's either use our 1st round pick and still add someone like Darius Slayton/Hollywood Brown, or make a major investment in FA/trade and then still draft one before round 5. I can't imagine just adding like a Darius Slayton and a round 4 WR. If that happens I can almost guarantee we'll again be looking for a mid-season trade to fill out the room.

[BisonBilly]

I’ve noticed that peoples grades this year are all over the place.  I mean the draft gurus on NFL.com, cbs sports, draft buzz, etc, some players go top 15-20 in one draft and round 2 or 3 in others.  I dont remember a year like this, ever.

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I worry that his skill set is too similar to what we've already had, but my usual disclaimer is that how the player turns out is what really matters. I'm not going to turn my nose up at any decently high WR investment. Beane just has to be right about the player.

 

I'm ideally looking for more of a speed/separation WR from this draft. Matthew Golden seems like the one player available at #30 that would fit the profile and be worth the pick, but admittedly it's hard for me to imagine him being the BPA at that pick. A trade up for Egbuka is the other 1st round option if he drops low enough. I know you said he's a slot WR but it doesn't seem like a Ladd McConkey situation where he's likely to a slot-only at the next level. Seems like his ability to get off press and separate outside is a matter of experience more than physical ability.

 

And yeah that's why I keep coming back to Higgins (or Metcalf if Seattle is willing to trade him). The draft just doesn't present a lot of good options to fix the WR room. It's either use our 1st round pick and still add someone like Darius Slayton/Hollywood Brown, or make a major investment in FA/trade and then still draft one before round 5. I can't imagine just adding like a Darius Slayton and a round 4 WR. If that happens I can almost guarantee we'll again be looking for a mid-season trade to fill out the room.

I really like Isiah bond actually.  4.3 speed has good jukes in his cuts, and isn’t afraid of contact. 
 

many years experience in the SEC too.  I like him in the 2nd 

Edited Monday at 05:20 PM by BisonBilly

[glazeduck]

13 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

How far can we move up in the draft if we trade our first, second and first next year?

If we’re packaging 2 1s and a 2 it better damn-well be for Myles Garrett, not a rookie WR lol