Gunner's 2025 Mock Draft - v2.0 now LIVE on p.11

[playaction]

1 hour ago, Ralonzo said:

 

I'm your stalkerberry. From the latest v3.0 mocks I could find:

 

2024 #28

Gunner: Brian Thomas WR (actual draft position #23 JAX)

Bills: Trade down to #32, Keon Coleman WR + DeWayne Carter DT #95 (Xavier Worthy WR taken #28 KC + Jaden Hicks S #133)

Yeah there's a lot to complain about the trade. Thomas wasn't there at 28 but nobody in that area of the draft had as much impact. Both KC players outplayed their BUF counterparts which usually means you lost the trade.

 

2024 #60

Gunner: Calen Bullock S (actual #78 HOU)

Bills: Cole Bishop S

Bullock had a terrific rookie season, 54 tackles, 5 picks, 1 FR and 11 passes defended allowing a 45.0 QBR when targeted - as a 21 year old. Clean win Gunner.

 

2023 #27

Gunner: Jordan Addison WR (actual #23 MIN)

Bills: Trade up to 25 for Dalton Kincaid TE (Anton Harrison OT taken #27 JAX + Tyler Lacy DE #130)

Addison is clearly someone the Bills could've used in 2024, Kincaid struggled as a sophomore and the Bills paid a 4th to go get him. Irl Addison was not an option, but the Bills paying a cost to get a guy less productive than others drafted later...

 

2023 #59

Gunner: Andrew Vorhees G (actual #229 BAL)

Bills: O'Cyrus Torrence G

This is skewed because Vorhees tore an ACL at the Combine after this mock and there was no R2 mock after v1.0. Torrence has slotted in nicely. Have to give an edge to the Bills here but it's just luck.

 

2022 #25

Gunner: Andrew Booth CB (actual #42 MIN)

Bills: Trade up to 23 for Kaiir Elam CB (Tyler Linderbaum C taken #25 BAL + Jordan Stout P #130)

Hah! Both lose this one but the Bills lose harder giving a 4th to move up for a bust. The correct answer was: Kyler Gordon. Extra kick in the jimmies is Baltimore getting 2 starters (and a Pro Bowler).

 

This is a well developed interesting post

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, playaction said:

This is a well developed interesting post

 

What's REALLY interesting is how often Gunner pegs the position being drafted at that slot. The only miss is Kincaid as a receiving TE instead of a proper WR.

[Thurman#1]

Bill, I took a look at Derrick Harmon after you picked him. Man, I am salivating.

 

Thanks so much for all the time you spend. Great stuff.

 

I'd really like all three of these.

 

 

Edited February 16 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, 5ths the charm said:

Need defensive back end help desperately. safety or db more than a wideout.

 

The board was hollowed out there. If the draft fell this way they could have gone Watts with the first second rounder I suppose, but there were no corners left worth a 2nd round pick 

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Bockeye said:

GunnerBill - I know you put a ton of work into these and watch a lot of college ball and hone these lists as the draft gets closer.  I think your draft may be better than the Bills.  Since Allen was drafted, what absolute studs would we have on the team if they followed your picks?  Just curious. 

 

Ha - having just had a flick back through my early in the process mocks since 2019:

 

2019: Ed Oliver (exactly who we ended up with)

2020: Tee Higgins (we traded the pick for Diggs)

 

From 2021 I started doing two rounders early in the process so:

 

2021 Round 1: Greg Newsome (went four spots before our pick to Cleveland)

2021 Round 2: Dillon Radunz (went seven picks before our pick to Tennesee)

 

2022 Round 1: Chris Olave (went fourteen picks before our pick to New Orleans)

2022 Round 2: Darian Kinnard (he then bombed at the Combine went round 5 to the Chiefs and is currently a backup on the Eagles)

 

2023 Round 1: Rashee Rice (went a full round later to the Chiefs)

2023 Round 2: Andrew Vorhees (then tore his ACL at the Combine and went round 5 to Baltimore where he missed his rookie season then has been in and out of the starting lineup)

 

2024 Round 1: Xavier Legette (went one spot before we eneded up picking but after we'd traded back)

2024 Round 2: Calen Bullock (went in round 3 to Houston where he had a very good rookie year). 

 

So leaving aside guys not available to them they'd have:

 

Darian Kinnard, Rashee Rice, Andrew Vorhees, Xavier Legette and Calen Bullock

 

Rather than:

 

James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Keon Coleman and Cole Bishop

 

I'd say the Bills won on Cook and Torrence. Coleman - Leggette is a tbd wash. Rice and Bullock would have been darn nice.

 

 

This is ONLY comparing my early mocks though. My final draft day mocks (one round only) were:

 

2019: Brian Burns (I also had them trading back into the first for DK Metcalf)

2020: no pick

2021: Travis Etienne

2022: Andrew Booth

2023: Jordan Addison

2024: Brian Thomas Jnr

 

Of those only Burns and Booth reached us. One would have been a good pick the other? Not so much.

 

Edited February 16 by GunnerBill

[JaCrispy]

Nice mock…Unfortunately, I DO NOT trust Beane to find top talent for this team…

 

I gave him the benefit of the doubt early on…But it is really starting to look like he has no clue…

[Sojourner]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Darian Kinnard, Rashee Rice, Andrew Vorhees, Xavier Legette and Calen Bullock

 

Rather than:

 

James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Keon Coleman and Cole Bishop

 

I'd say the Bills won on Cook and Torrence. Coleman - Leggette is a tbd wash. Rice and Bullock would have been darn nice.

 

 

Rice isn’t that much ahead of Shakir, if at all. Caleb Bullock would have been a nice addition but we’ll see where we are at with Bishop. 
 

Pick for picks, as is stands right now, id say we did solid. They’ve all produced somewhat where as the other group only has 2 players making any impact; Rice & Bullock. Legette, like you said is tbd. 

Edited February 16 by Sojourner

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Rice isn’t that much ahead of Shakir, if at all. Caleb Bullock would have been a nice addition but we’ll see where we are at with Bishop. 
 

Pick for picks, as is stands right now, id say we did solid. They’ve all produced somewhat where as the other group only has 2 players making any impact; Rice & Bullock. Legette, like you said is tbd. 

 

Oh I think there is quite a big difference between Rice and Shakir. But let's see how Rice looks post injury. He was averaging 96 yards per game through 3 games this year. I think he was gonna have a monster year before the injury.

[GreggTX]

I like it a lot, Gunner. We'd have to get a CB in FA, but I think this would work.

 

BTW, somebody has a lot of free time on their hands. How long did this take?

[GreggTX]

On 1/29/2025 at 8:00 AM, Bill from NYC said:

Is Derrick Harmon truly a better DT than Walter Nolen? I know nohing at all about Harmon but Nolen is a monster. I have watched him play for years and he is really tough to move. I even doubt that Nolen will be there that late.

 

In any event thanks for the post.

Perhaps, but Nolen is more of a 3-Tech. We need a 1-Tech. Harmon weighs in at 311 lbs. and would be a much better fit.

[TheBeaneBandit]

25 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Perhaps, but Nolen is more of a 3-Tech. We need a 1-Tech. Harmon weighs in at 311 lbs. and would be a much better fit.

Sometimes you you just gotta stop being cute, and take the better player, which is Nolan. That’s the reason the defense is in this mess.

[GunnerBill]

On 2/17/2025 at 10:55 PM, GreggTX said:

I like it a lot, Gunner. We'd have to get a CB in FA, but I think this would work.

 

BTW, somebody has a lot of free time on their hands. How long did this take?

 

Takes me between 90 minutes to two hours to put a good round worth of a mock together. I like to think I have a pretty good basic grasp of strengths and weaknesses of all 32 teams to start from but then it takes a bit of research to look at FAs and potential cap casualties and then where there are new HCs or coordinators what that might mean in terms of scheme or style of player they covet. The writing up is the quicker bit.  

[GunnerBill]

Okay so here is version 2.0 post the initial wave of free agency. I always do version 1.0 and my final version on draft day as no trade mocks, but I like in version 2.0 to play around with some trade scenarios that make sense. I don't see a ton of trades in round one this year, but I had a go at three here that made sense to me and they allow you to see what impact one unexpected change in the order can do to the way things play out from that point. Anyway.... here goes!

 

 

1 – Tennessee Titans – Cam Ward – Quarterback, Miami

While there were rumours around the Combine that Tennessee could shop this pick for a big enough haul in return, their lack of action at Quarterback in free agency tells a different story. The Titans are giving up on the Will Levis experiment and are about to make Cam Ward the face of their franchise.

 

2 – Cleveland Browns – Travis Hunter – Cornerback / Wide Receiver, Colorado

Cleveland has also done limited business in the Quarterback market – trading for Kenny Pickett – though they might still pursue another veteran. However, I think it unlikely they select one here, which means they will take either Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter. With Myles Garrett signed to a new deal I think the perimeter playmaking ability of Hunter (on both sides of the ball) fills a bigger need.

 

3 – TRADE!! Carolina Panthers – Abdul Carter – Edge Rusher, Penn State (Panthers get #3, Giants get #3, #57 and 2026 1st round pick)

The Giants currently don’t have a Quarterback and might need to pick a guy they don’t love early in this draft. A way of sweetening that might be to slide back a few spots first and pick up some extra draft capital – think the Bills and EJ Manuel in 2013 – and with the Raiders hiring a ‘win now’ coach in his 70s and trading for Geno Smith the risk of moving back and missing out altogether has subsided somewhat. They would need a trade partner of course, a desperate team needing edge rush help – enter the Carolina Panthers with an impetuous and impatient owner who has been willing to take big draft swings before and 32-year-old Jadaveon Clowney currently pencilled in as their #1 rusher. Carter would be a home run pick for a Panthers regime that probably has to show some signs of progress in 2025 to be back in 2026.

 

4 – New England Patriots – Will Campbell – Offensive Tackle, LSU

I would expect New England’s ideal scenario is for two Quarterbacks to go in the first three picks which would guarantee them either Carter or Hunter, the two best prospects in this class. However, in a world like this one where both of those guys are gone I think they’d revert from BPA to biggest need and that is certainly the offensive line. Will Campbell would start day one at left tackle.

 

5 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Mason Graham – Defensive Tackle, Michigan

Some people have started to cool on the Graham to Jacksonville fit at #5, especially since he weighed in under 300lbs at the Combine. However, I think some of that is just people trying to find new takes. It is still the pick that makes the most sense to me when you match value with need and he would be an enormous upgrade for the Jaguars.

 

6 – Las Vegas Raiders – Ashton Jeanty – Running Back, Boise State

As mentioned above the Raiders have hired a Head Coach in his 70s and traded for a veteran ‘bridge’ Quarterback in Geno Smith. Those moves suggest the team is trying to get more competitive right now rather that rebuild for the future. We know Pete Carroll wants to run the football and he won’t be around to worry about what happens to Jeanty beyond his rookie deal.

 

7 – New York Jets – Armand Membou – Offensive Tackle, Missouri

The Jets offensive line has been a mess for years, but they finally are starting to look like they have something. Ola Fashanu was impressive as a rookie, the interior is much improved, and now they have a chance to add Armand Membou as a bookend on the right side. Aaron Glenn knows as well as anyone, coming from Detroit, the value that a strong offensive line brings.

 

8 – New York Giants (from Carolina) – Shedeur Sanders – Quarterback, Colorado

Having picked up their extra ammunition from the trade down the Giants now have to take their shot at Quarterback. I expect that guy still to be Shedeur Sanders, but Jaxon Dart is not totally out of the question.

 

9 – New Orleans Saints – Shermar Stewart – Edge Rusher, Texas A&M

Edge rusher remains a need for the Saints, despite the big contract handed out to retain Chase Young’s services. As I pointed out in version 1.0, Cam Jordan is 35 and only has six sacks over the last two seasons. Stewart is an athletic freak who has flown up boards since the Combine and the Saints have never shied away from going for potential over production when drafting edge rushers.

 

10 – Chicago Bears – Nick Emmanwori – Safety, South Carolina

The Bears roster looks pretty good on paper, so if Ben Johnson can bring improvement out of Caleb Williams they could contend in the fiendishly difficult NFC North. However, they could stand to upgrade the athleticism at the safety position where Kevin Byard will be 32 by September and while I think this is too high for Emmanwori his physical profile will be enticing to some.

 

11 – San Francisco 49ers – Kelvin Banks Jr – Offensive Tackle, Texas

I had this match in version 1.0 and I still love the fit. Trent Williams is now 36, missed 7 games in 2024 and his backup, Jaylon Moore, went to Kansas City in free agency while starting left guard Aaron Banks left for the Packers. Kelvin Banks, who could play at guard as a rookie before taking over from Williams at tackle, makes a ton of sense and he met with the 49ers at the Combine.

 

12 – Dallas Cowboys – Tetairoa McMillan – Wide Receiver, Arizona

The Cowboys spent most of their free agency dollars on the defense and bolstering what was the worst running back room in football in 2024. However, they did nothing to upgrade at wide receiver where beyond CeeDee Lamb the cupboard is bare. Tet McMillan ran a 4.48 at his pro day which I think dispels some concern about his long speed and I don’t see him sliding much further than this.

 

13 – Miami Dolphins – Tyler Warren – Tight End, Penn State

Miami should go defense at this spot given their needs but I just wonder if Tyler Warren might be too tempting to pass up. The one-piece Mike McDaniel has been looking for to complete his version of the Shanahan offense is a tight end who can play in line and be a receiving weapon in space. Jonnu Smith was a reasonable placeholder last year but Warren would be a long term answer.

 

14 – TRADE!! Seattle Seahawks – Jalon Walker – Edge Rusher, Georgia (Seahawks get #14 & #80; Colts get #18 & #50)

Jalon Walker is one of the most confounding evaluations in this draft. Is he a linebacker? Is he an edge rusher? One team for whom that likely doesn’t matter is Seattle because Mike McDonald’s defense moves guys about and they have needs in both spots. There is a run of teams ahead of their original pick at #18 that are likely in the edge market and with 5 picks in the first three rounds Seattle has more than enough ammunition to make a move up to get to the front of the queue. The Colts need help in a few spots and likely figure they can still address one of their major needs four picks later.

 

15 – Atlanta Falcons – Mike Green – Edge Rusher, Marshall

Atlanta did make some effort to upgrade its anaemic pass rush by bringing it veteran ‘gun-for-hire’ Leonard Floyd on a one-year deal. However, they lost Grady Jarrett at the same time and they still need to do more work to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Green needs to develop his strength against the run, but he had a strong senior bowl and is an explosive, bendy rusher.

 

16 – Arizona Cardinals – Jahdae Barron – Cornerback, Texas

Barron is one of the best players in this class and if he was slightly longer he would be a slam dunk top 10 pick. However, Cardinals Head Coach Jonathan Gannon cares less than some about size and loves corners with inside/outside flex that he can use as matchup pieces.  Barron fits that profile perfectly. I expect him to shine in this scheme.

 

17 – Cincinnati Bengals – Mykel Williams – Edge Rusher, Georgia

The Bengals have paid both of their stud receivers but they have yet to find an agreement with pass rush specialist Trey Hendrikson. With uncertainty over his future, Joseph Ossai on the other side of the line only being on a one-year deal and Myles Murphy yet to justify the first round pick they spent on him, Mykel Williams might be too good to pass up as an injection of youth at the edge position.

 

18 – Indianapolis Colts (from Seattle) – Will Johnson – Cornerback, Michigan

I don’t really know where to start with the Colts roster which is severely lacking in elite talent and game changers. Lou Anarumo has arrived as defensive coordinator and made upgrading the secondary a priority. They snagged Charvarius Ward to man one corner spot in free agency, if they add Johnson on the other side that at least makes their secondary an identifiable strength.

 

19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jihaad Campbell – Linebacker, Alabama

Another match I had in version 1.0, although if it wasn’t for the shoulder injury I would have moved Campbell up and he could well go higher. The Buccaneers have signed Lavonte David up to another one-year deal for 2025 so they could ease Campbell into the lineup alongside him, once healthy, to learn from the veteran down the stretch before taking over as the alpha in that room in 2026.

 

20 – TRADE!! Houston Texans – Josh Simmons – Offensive Tackle, Ohio State (Texans get #20; Broncos get #25 and #89)

Houston needed offensive line help even before trading Laremy Tunsil to the Commanders. While they got a good return for Tunsil and moved on a big contract, he was by far their best blocker and free agent signings Cam Robinson and Trent Brown are, at best, sticking plasters. Simmons, once fully recovered from his ACL tear, has the potential to man the Texans’ left tackle spot for a decade. But Pittsburgh, who just lost their left tackle in free agency and Green Bay who have a serviceable but upgradeable starter at the spot are currently slated to pick before Houston and so the Texans flip one of their two third rounders to get to this pick.

 

21 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Walter Nolen – Defensive Tackle, Ole Miss

I’m working on the basis that Aaron Rodgers is going to be the Quarterback in Pittsburgh even if it is not done yet. If this pick is not Quarterback I believe it will be defensive line in an effort to find a long term replacement for the great Cam Heyward. The Steelers’ top brass were out in force at the Ole Miss pro day last week, and Walter Nolen is apparently the apple of their eye.

 

22 – Los Angeles Chargers – Colston Loveland, Tight End, Michigan

The Chargers brought back Mike Williams after one year away (spent with two different franchises) and signed Tyler Conklin in free agency to try and upgrade their pass game targets for Justin Herbert. But they still need to do more there and here Jim Harbaugh gets that chance to go back to his Michigan Wolverines and snag Loveland, a chain moving tight end, who fits the Greg Roman offense.

 

23 – Green Bay Packers – Matthew Golden – Wide Receiver, Texas

I know, I know…. Green Bay doesn’t pick receivers in round one. Indeed, they rarely go offense in the first round but I think during the second half of last season the limitations of its wide receiver by committee strategy were shown up. With speedster Christian Watson coming off an ACL, and entering a contract year, Golden fills both a short and long term need.

 

24 – Minnesota Vikings – Malaki Starks – Safety, Georgia

Harrison Smith is 36 and returning to the Vikings on a one-year deal. They don’t have a lot else at safety and Malaki Starks is the sort of smart, instinctive and disciplined defensive back that defensive coordinator Brian Flores covets. Smith played more in the box last year and bringing in Starks to play deep allows him to stay closer to the line where he isn’t asked to cover as much ground.

 

25 – Denver Broncos (from Houston) – Luther Burden III – Wide Receiver, Missouri

Denver is feeling pretty good about Bo Nix after making the playoffs behind their rookie Quarterback in 2024 and they will want to continue building the talent around him. I think Burden is very talented but needs a creative mind to get the best from him and I wonder if Denver would essentially give him the ‘Alvin Kamara’ passing routes that Sean Payton used to great effect in New Orleans.

 

26 – Los Angeles Rams – Trey Amos – Corner, Ole Miss

The Rams went into the offseason with potential needs at left tackle (extended Alaric Jackson), wide receiver (signed Davonte Adams and extended Tutu Atwell), nose tackle (signed Poona Ford) and corner, where they have not yet made a move. They do not have a second-round pick so I expect them address that need here. Amos is the cleanest prospect among the second-tier corners.

 

27 – Baltimore Ravens – James Pearce – Edge Rusher, Tennessee

This just feels so Baltimore. Wait, let the board fall to them and then snag someone who on pure talent alone could easily have gone ten picks earlier. Off the field concerns look like they are going to drop Pearce into the second half of the first round at least but the Ravens trust their culture with questionable character guys and they need to add juice to their pass rush.

 

28 – Detroit Lions – Donovan Ezeiruaku – Edge Rusher, Boston College

The Lions roster is pretty stacked but they need some edge help opposite Aiden Hutchinson. They do get Marcus Davenport back, whose season ended in week two last year, but Za’Darius Smith was released and their depth is questionable. Ezeiruaku feels like their type of guy – mature, consistent, technically proficient and productive at the college level.

 

29 – Washington Commanders – Omarion Hampton – Running Back, North Carolina

A team with an exciting young Quarterback spending a first round pick on a running back isn’t necessarily something that meets with my approval, however, I think it is clear that Washington is determined to put the best possible collection of offensive talent around Jayden Daniels while he is on a rookie deal and Hampton is a big play threat in the way current starter Brian Robinson isn’t.

 

30 – Buffalo Bills – Kenneth Grant – Defensive Tackle, Michigan

I think this pick will either be a defensive lineman or a corner. If Trey Amos was still on the board that might have been the direction to go in. But he isn’t and I think Kenneth Grant would be as perfect a compliment to Ed Oliver as you could find in the middle of the Bills defensive line, adept at both holding the point of attack in the run game and collapsing the pocket on passing downs.

 

31 – Kansas City Chiefs – Josh Conerly – Offensive Tackle, Oregon

The Chiefs signed 49ers backup Jaylon Moore to a reasonable free agent contract with the intention of him starting at left tackle in 2025. However, it is only a two-year deal with an out after one year and I don’t feel it will stop them pursuing a legit left tackle prospect if one makes it to them at the end of round one. Conerly could be the long-term solution to a problem position for Kansas City.

 

32 – Philadelphia Eagles – Emeka Egbuka – Wide Receiver, Ohio State

One might say that replacing Darius Slay at corner or Chauncey Gardner-Johnson at safety should be the priority with this pick. But the value just isn’t there are those positions in this spot and there is still a need for more playmakers at receiver alongside AJ Brown and Devonta Smith after the trade for Jahan Dotson was a predictable miss. Egbuka is a terrific route runner with inside/outside flex.

 

 

As ever folks, FLAAAAMMMMEEEEE AWAAAAAAY!

[wppete]

IMO Shadeur Sanders #1 overall is not realistic. I think we will see him drop like Aaron Rogers and Lamar Jackson. Hope he has a career similar to theirs. 2 of the lal time greats. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, wppete said:

IMO Shadeur Sanders #1 overall is not realistic. I think we will see him drop like Aaron Rogers and Lamar Jackson. Hope he has a career similar to theirs. 2 of the lal time greats. 

 

You are still looking at version 1..... 

[wppete]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are still looking at version 1..... 

 

I know. I just think he will fall maybe out if the 1st round. But think he will be a decent player in the NFL. 

[MrEpsYtown]

@GunnerBill awesome work!

 

with the way this draft fell, if the Bills force a corner pick, which I think they will do if no other additions were made, whose the corner left on the board you would take if forced to pick a corner at our pick? 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

@GunnerBill awesome work!

 

with the way this draft fell, if the Bills force a corner pick, which I think they will do if no other additions were made, whose the corner left on the board you would take if forced to pick a corner at our pick? 

 

Hariston. I think I would take Amos if he made it though.

[Dr. Who]

I think given Beane's proclivities, Hairston at CB is where he would land, though I personally love Grant at #30. A lot of folks think you'll need to trade up to get Grant, but this mock has plausible trades and rationale. 

Edited Sunday at 04:11 PM by Dr. Who

[OldTimer1960]

Gunner: thank you for that thorough analysis and projection.  Great fun to read.  
 

I would be thrilled if the Bills could nab Grant, but then who is starting at CB opposite Benford?  It looks to me like the remaining CBs will be picked over by pick 56, unless Thomas slides that far because of his decent, but not great speed.  Possible, I suppose that the injuries to Revel and Morrison cause them to drop, but if that’s the case I don’t know if the Bills have the luxury of waiting for them to get healthy.  Jackson or Ingram starting the first 8 games would be hard to watch.

 

Thoughts?

Edited Sunday at 04:53 PM by OldTimer1960