Gunner's 2025 Mock Draft - v1.0

[playaction]

1 hour ago, Ralonzo said:

 

I'm your stalkerberry. From the latest v3.0 mocks I could find:

 

2024 #28

Gunner: Brian Thomas WR (actual draft position #23 JAX)

Bills: Trade down to #32, Keon Coleman WR + DeWayne Carter DT #95 (Xavier Worthy WR taken #28 KC + Jaden Hicks S #133)

Yeah there's a lot to complain about the trade. Thomas wasn't there at 28 but nobody in that area of the draft had as much impact. Both KC players outplayed their BUF counterparts which usually means you lost the trade.

 

2024 #60

Gunner: Calen Bullock S (actual #78 HOU)

Bills: Cole Bishop S

Bullock had a terrific rookie season, 54 tackles, 5 picks, 1 FR and 11 passes defended allowing a 45.0 QBR when targeted - as a 21 year old. Clean win Gunner.

 

2023 #27

Gunner: Jordan Addison WR (actual #23 MIN)

Bills: Trade up to 25 for Dalton Kincaid TE (Anton Harrison OT taken #27 JAX + Tyler Lacy DE #130)

Addison is clearly someone the Bills could've used in 2024, Kincaid struggled as a sophomore and the Bills paid a 4th to go get him. Irl Addison was not an option, but the Bills paying a cost to get a guy less productive than others drafted later...

 

2023 #59

Gunner: Andrew Vorhees G (actual #229 BAL)

Bills: O'Cyrus Torrence G

This is skewed because Vorhees tore an ACL at the Combine after this mock and there was no R2 mock after v1.0. Torrence has slotted in nicely. Have to give an edge to the Bills here but it's just luck.

 

2022 #25

Gunner: Andrew Booth CB (actual #42 MIN)

Bills: Trade up to 23 for Kaiir Elam CB (Tyler Linderbaum C taken #25 BAL + Jordan Stout P #130)

Hah! Both lose this one but the Bills lose harder giving a 4th to move up for a bust. The correct answer was: Kyler Gordon. Extra kick in the jimmies is Baltimore getting 2 starters (and a Pro Bowler).

 

This is a well developed interesting post

[Ralonzo]

1 hour ago, playaction said:

This is a well developed interesting post

 

What's REALLY interesting is how often Gunner pegs the position being drafted at that slot. The only miss is Kincaid as a receiving TE instead of a proper WR.

[Thurman#1]

Bill, I took a look at Derrick Harmon after you picked him. Man, I am salivating.

 

Thanks so much for all the time you spend. Great stuff.

 

I'd really like all three of these.

 

 

Edited Sunday at 06:12 AM by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, 5ths the charm said:

Need defensive back end help desperately. safety or db more than a wideout.

 

The board was hollowed out there. If the draft fell this way they could have gone Watts with the first second rounder I suppose, but there were no corners left worth a 2nd round pick 

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, Bockeye said:

GunnerBill - I know you put a ton of work into these and watch a lot of college ball and hone these lists as the draft gets closer.  I think your draft may be better than the Bills.  Since Allen was drafted, what absolute studs would we have on the team if they followed your picks?  Just curious. 

 

Ha - having just had a flick back through my early in the process mocks since 2019:

 

2019: Ed Oliver (exactly who we ended up with)

2020: Tee Higgins (we traded the pick for Diggs)

 

From 2021 I started doing two rounders early in the process so:

 

2021 Round 1: Greg Newsome (went four spots before our pick to Cleveland)

2021 Round 2: Dillon Radunz (went seven picks before our pick to Tennesee)

 

2022 Round 1: Chris Olave (went fourteen picks before our pick to New Orleans)

2022 Round 2: Darian Kinnard (he then bombed at the Combine went round 5 to the Chiefs and is currently a backup on the Eagles)

 

2023 Round 1: Rashee Rice (went a full round later to the Chiefs)

2023 Round 2: Andrew Vorhees (then tore his ACL at the Combine and went round 5 to Baltimore where he missed his rookie season then has been in and out of the starting lineup)

 

2024 Round 1: Xavier Legette (went one spot before we eneded up picking but after we'd traded back)

2024 Round 2: Calen Bullock (went in round 3 to Houston where he had a very good rookie year). 

 

So leaving aside guys not available to them they'd have:

 

Darian Kinnard, Rashee Rice, Andrew Vorhees, Xavier Legette and Calen Bullock

 

Rather than:

 

James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Keon Coleman and Cole Bishop

 

I'd say the Bills won on Cook and Torrence. Coleman - Leggette is a tbd wash. Rice and Bullock would have been darn nice.

 

 

This is ONLY comparing my early mocks though. My final draft day mocks (one round only) were:

 

2019: Brian Burns (I also had them trading back into the first for DK Metcalf)

2020: no pick

2021: Travis Etienne

2022: Andrew Booth

2023: Jordan Addison

2024: Brian Thomas Jnr

 

Of those only Burns and Booth reached us. One would have been a good pick the other? Not so much.

 

Edited Sunday at 10:10 AM by GunnerBill

[JaCrispy]

Nice mock…Unfortunately, I DO NOT trust Beane to find top talent for this team…

 

I gave him the benefit of the doubt early on…But it is really starting to look like he has no clue…

[Sojourner]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Darian Kinnard, Rashee Rice, Andrew Vorhees, Xavier Legette and Calen Bullock

 

Rather than:

 

James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, O'Cyrus Torrence, Keon Coleman and Cole Bishop

 

I'd say the Bills won on Cook and Torrence. Coleman - Leggette is a tbd wash. Rice and Bullock would have been darn nice.

 

 

Rice isn’t that much ahead of Shakir, if at all. Caleb Bullock would have been a nice addition but we’ll see where we are at with Bishop. 
 

Pick for picks, as is stands right now, id say we did solid. They’ve all produced somewhat where as the other group only has 2 players making any impact; Rice & Bullock. Legette, like you said is tbd. 

Edited Sunday at 11:25 AM by Sojourner

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Rice isn’t that much ahead of Shakir, if at all. Caleb Bullock would have been a nice addition but we’ll see where we are at with Bishop. 
 

Pick for picks, as is stands right now, id say we did solid. They’ve all produced somewhat where as the other group only has 2 players making any impact; Rice & Bullock. Legette, like you said is tbd. 

 

Oh I think there is quite a big difference between Rice and Shakir. But let's see how Rice looks post injury. He was averaging 96 yards per game through 3 games this year. I think he was gonna have a monster year before the injury.

[GreggTX]

I like it a lot, Gunner. We'd have to get a CB in FA, but I think this would work.

 

BTW, somebody has a lot of free time on their hands. How long did this take?

[GreggTX]

On 1/29/2025 at 8:00 AM, Bill from NYC said:

Is Derrick Harmon truly a better DT than Walter Nolen? I know nohing at all about Harmon but Nolen is a monster. I have watched him play for years and he is really tough to move. I even doubt that Nolen will be there that late.

 

In any event thanks for the post.

Perhaps, but Nolen is more of a 3-Tech. We need a 1-Tech. Harmon weighs in at 311 lbs. and would be a much better fit.

[TheBeaneBandit]

25 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Perhaps, but Nolen is more of a 3-Tech. We need a 1-Tech. Harmon weighs in at 311 lbs. and would be a much better fit.

Sometimes you you just gotta stop being cute, and take the better player, which is Nolan. That’s the reason the defense is in this mess.

[GunnerBill]

On 2/17/2025 at 10:55 PM, GreggTX said:

I like it a lot, Gunner. We'd have to get a CB in FA, but I think this would work.

 

BTW, somebody has a lot of free time on their hands. How long did this take?

 

Takes me between 90 minutes to two hours to put a good round worth of a mock together. I like to think I have a pretty good basic grasp of strengths and weaknesses of all 32 teams to start from but then it takes a bit of research to look at FAs and potential cap casualties and then where there are new HCs or coordinators what that might mean in terms of scheme or style of player they covet. The writing up is the quicker bit.