Wide Receiver Train Full Speed Ahead- CHOO CHOO!

[Pete]

18 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Until your playing defense and forced to stop Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy and Rasheed Rice with Christian Benford, Taron Johnson and Dane Jackson. Until our defense can show it can stop KC in the playoffs we're playing catchup which isn't the easiest way to win, the easiest way to win is consistently stop your opposition and score as many times as you can offense. 

DT and CB are deep.  We still have picks 56, 62, 109, 132, 169, 170, 173, 177, 206.  I would use every pick for Defense, and use picks to move up in rounds targeting Defensive prospects rated high on Bills draft boards.  That is a lot of help for our Defense, and should help calm your Chiefs anxiety.

 

Not to mention, Bills were highest scoring team last year.  Add in Golden and Palmer, and a healthy Samuels.  Also, a healthy Kincaid, and a second season for Keon.  With our loaded WR, Josh will win every track meet.

Edited Tuesday at 02:19 PM by Pete

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, Pete said:

DT and CB are deep. 

 

 

I am not sure corner is that deep personally. I think you have Hunter, Barron and Johnson in the first tier (plus Revel on the fringe but with major medical red flags).

 

Then you have Amos, Hariston, Morrison (major injury red flags), Thomas in the second tier, plus Porter who is kinda of tier 2 and a half. 

 

After those 9 guys there are not a ton of guys I'd feel confident in saying would come in and beat out a vet like Dane Jackson who knows the system as rookies. Are there some guys who can and will improve past Dane with some development and time on task? Sure. But if the Bills best available at a premium position in round 1 isn't a corner then IMO they should try and move up in round two to get one of those guys (or find another still unsigned vet on the market). Otherwise more likely than not Dane Jackson will start the season opposite Christian Benford.

Edited Tuesday at 02:30 PM by GunnerBill

[The Jokeman]

54 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Historically, it’s not a good idea to say “we need a CB so we are going to draft one.”

Did you forget the 90s where we seemingly drafted a CB in Round 1 every single season?

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

DT and CB are deep.  We still have picks 56, 62, 109, 132, 169, 170, 173, 177, 206.  I would use every pick for Defense, and use picks to move up in rounds targeting Defensive prospects rated high on Bills draft boards.  That is a lot of help for our Defense, and should help calm your Chiefs anxiety.

 

Not to mention, Bills were highest scoring team last year.  Add in Golden and Palmer, and a healthy Samuels.  Also, a healthy Kincaid, and a second season for Keon.  With our loaded WR, Josh will win every track meet.

Why fill your defense with inferior talent when it's your teams weakness? I get wanted to give Josh the best options but are those options going to make Josh and the offense significantly better than what we saw last season? I highly doubt it.

[BillsShredder83]

12 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I do agree with MANY here that the Bills should grab a WR early. I also think when the Bills grab a WR it will be later on then most (myself included) would want to unless one drops and is a great value pick.

 

I'm actually thinking that we may have a WR that they feel can take over some of the Hollins role on STs. I think there's a good chance Shavers is given the opportunity to claim that role. He was billed as a good ST player coming out and he has some size. 

 

Not saying he will be a beast, but I wouldn't be shocked if he earns a jersey on game day next year 

I like that. Big dude.  Not being asked to be the flashiest receiver out there.  ST's guy, I cant say I KNOW, but usually those are the guys willing to do grimey work.  Use that big-arse body and become a run blocking beast.... make the occasional catch situationally.  I know he's tall, do I remember hearing he was kind of a deep ball guy without the high end speed?  Hollins did that well.  Hopefully he rubbed off on Shavers.  

 

What a great example of a guy who has made a career from always living at the bottom of a receiver room, but finding ways to stay employed.  No snark, im serious.  Living that low down the totem pole, knowing you have to cut out your own role to stay on a team/ in the NFL.  Live ferociously on the LOS! Play ST's! Make yourself un-expendable, and went and earned himself a nice contract!!  

 

I'd prefer Shavers wear shoes and wash his hands, but if I were him, having had a year with Mack really should be the ultimate example and blessing on your career!

[FireChans]

48 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Did you forget the 90s where we seemingly drafted a CB in Round 1 every single season?

No.

I am however failing to see the point. Reaching for any position of need in the first is legitimately bad strategy. It’s why the adage is, “don’t reach for needs” ha.

[The Jokeman]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

No.

I am however failing to see the point. Reaching for any position of need in the first is legitimately bad strategy. It’s why the adage is, “don’t reach for needs” ha.

My point is we needed a CB almost every year during that era as we kept losing them in UFA and had to replace them. If we look back some of them may have been reaches yet I don't have time to deep dive at this moment. 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

My point is we needed a CB almost every year during that era as we kept losing them in UFA and had to replace them. If we look back some of them may have been reaches yet I don't have time to deep dive at this moment. 

I already looked.

 

a lot of them were reaches. James Williams in particular. 
 

I have come around to @GunnerBill’s philosophy that you should always be considering picking at least one CB every year because keeping a talent pipeline in that group is super important. But not necessarily in the first,

 

My FireChans patented “Official draft strategy” is as follows.

 

QB/EDGE/WR/OT/CB/pass rush in round 1 exclusively. Obviously if you have a QB, you don’t need one there. 

 

1 WR in rounds 2-4 every year you can

 

1 CB in rounds 2-4 every year you can

 

No pick higher than a 3rd on running backs ever.

 

Everything else BPA

[sven233]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I already looked.

 

a lot of them were reaches. James Williams in particular. 
 

I have come around to @GunnerBill’s philosophy that you should always be considering picking at least one CB every year because keeping a talent pipeline in that group is super important. But not necessarily in the first,

 

My FireChans patented “Official draft strategy” is as follows.

 

QB/EDGE/WR/OT/CB/pass rush in round 1 exclusively. Obviously if you have a QB, you don’t need one there. 

 

1 WR in rounds 2-4 every year you can

 

1 CB in rounds 2-4 every year you can

 

No pick higher than a 3rd on running backs ever.

 

Everything else BPA

 

This is pretty much how I go in thinking about the draft.  It's about the premium positions in the 1st round.  There are many reasons for it, but the obvious ones are that they are the most important positions on the field where you have to be good and the cost control of those premium assets.  I know you are being general with this, but I am even stricter on QB.  That is a top 10 type of pick only for me.  Sure, you can hit on guys lower than that, but it is much more rare to get a superstar at that position outside that area.  Jackson comes to mind for sure, but there are some that were arguing he could have been a top 10 pick at the time and I don't think anyone would have blinked if he had gone there.

 

But yeah.....round 1 to me is to try and get that cost controlled superstar at a premium position.  Outside of QB, that is EDGE, WR (preferably outside WRs), CB, and possibly OT depending on the guy.  I do think you have a good chance of hitting on a solid to potentially great OT in rounds 2 and 3 if needed.  But, if you really need one, round 1 is totally fine to do that in.

 

When you get into the 2nd and 3rd round, I look at those premium positions first, but if there is nobody obvious to take, that is when I am looking at those positions I consider second tier in terms of impotence where I think if you wait to these rounds, you can still potentially get the best, or one of the best, at their positions in the draft.  Safety, Guards, Centers, DTs, Slot WRs, an possibly LBs and RBs.  Personally, I am Round 3 or later for LBs and RBs, but if you are pretty set at other positions and have a glaring need, Round 2 is acceptable.

 

Then, when you hit the 4th round and later, I am exclusively BPA no matter what my roster looks like.  I don't care if I think I have my top 5 WRs set.  If WR is the best player on the board, I'm taking him.  Same can be said for other positions.  I am also looking for traits.  I am focused on speed and size and the combination of the two.  If there is an EDGE or LB there that runs say a 4.65 and is 6'4+ but for whatever reason hasn't had the production you would expect with those traits, I am ready to start taking chances on athletic freaks.  Same with those guys that were great and projected to go in the first round but didn't for whatever reason.  Maybe they had an injury.  Maybe there is something in the medical you are concerned with, but it could be fine down the road......take the swing.  Is it a character issue?  What's the issue?  Is it really that bad?  Can you take a swing and afford to cut the guy if he is a trash person once you get him in the building?  I'm fine with taking those chances to potentially hit a grand slam if it works out.

 

Then when you get to the late rounds, I am focused on the guys that had a ton of production but it maybe it happened at a smaller school.  The perfect example is Benford.  Big CB.  Maybe not the fastest, but fast enough.  Played great at a small school, but because he wasn't in a major program, didn't get the attention other guys did.  Beane is great at finding these guys and I think this is one part of the draft he has a great handle on.

 

But yeah.....I definitely go into the draft with a plan and I stick to it especially in the first couple of rounds.  I think having set positions and priorities can really help in building a team that has sustained success.  Unless your team is absolutely stacked at premium positions, I don't stray from this plan.  But even if you are stacked, all that means is that you will have contracts coming up that you will have to pay or move on from and replace that guy at the end of the season anyway, so I am still sticking with this plan regardless.

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I already looked.

 

a lot of them were reaches. James Williams in particular. 
 

I have come around to @GunnerBill’s philosophy that you should always be considering picking at least one CB every year because keeping a talent pipeline in that group is super important. But not necessarily in the first,

 

My FireChans patented “Official draft strategy” is as follows.

 

QB/EDGE/WR/OT/CB/pass rush in round 1 exclusively. Obviously if you have a QB, you don’t need one there. 

 

1 WR in rounds 2-4 every year you can

 

1 CB in rounds 2-4 every year you can

 

No pick higher than a 3rd on running backs ever.

 

Everything else BPA

Those are generally good rules yet if we followed them than we would have never gotten James Cook, Thurman Thomas, OJ Simpson etc. etc. Talent can be had anywhere in the draft and yes I prefer to get big guys earlier than often myself but there's an exception to every rule. 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Those are generally good rules yet if we followed them than we would have never gotten James Cook, Thurman Thomas, OJ Simpson etc. etc. Talent can be had anywhere in the draft and yes I prefer to get big guys earlier than often myself but there's an exception to every rule. 

The NFL has changed. These are rules for the modern era.

 

And as much as James Cook is nice, right now we are debating on TBD trading him vs overpaying him vs him holding out.  Which is the point.

[The Jokeman]

22 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The NFL has changed. These are rules for the modern era.

 

And as much as James Cook is nice, right now we are debating on TBD trading him vs overpaying him vs him holding out.  Which is the point.

So are you saying we'd have the same success last year with Motor or Zach Moss vs James Cook last season? I disagree. Now signing him to a 2nd contract is a different matter than drafting him. 

[OldTimer1960]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sure corner is that deep personally. I think you have Hunter, Barron and Johnson in the first tier (plus Revel on the fringe but with major medical red flags).

 

Then you have Amos, Hariston, Morrison (major injury red flags), Thomas in the second tier, plus Porter who is kinda of tier 2 and a half. 

 

After those 9 guys there are not a ton of guys I'd feel confident in saying would come in and beat out a vet like Dane Jackson who knows the system as rookies. Are there some guys who can and will improve past Dane with some development and time on task? Sure. But if the Bills best available at a premium position in round 1 isn't a corner then IMO they should try and move up in round two to get one of those guys (or find another still unsigned vet on the market). Otherwise more likely than not Dane Jackson will start the season opposite Christian Benford.

Say it isn’t so!  THAT would be suboptimal.  
 

in the fever of pointing out that the Eagles used a great DL to beat KC, few have mentioned that the Eagles had a nice secondary including Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I don’t think they go WR at 30 and I believe that the strength of this WR class is in the 3rd to 5th round. Lots of different body types with upside. I personally  like Tai Felton but I believe that there are a lot of guys that with the right development could be solid contributors down the road 

 

Kyle Williams is my new favorite 4th round target. He gives us a vertical threat that doesn't currently exist on the roster. Early on we could use him like Denver uses Marvin Mims and there is upside to become a legit top 2 outside option.

[FireChans]

59 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

So are you saying we'd have the same success last year with Motor or Zach Moss vs James Cook last season? I disagree. Now signing him to a 2nd contract is a different matter than drafting him. 

Moss sucks. But yes, league average back, we still win lots of games and lose to KC.

[Low Positive]

22 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Say it isn’t so!  THAT would be suboptimal.  
 

in the fever of pointing out that the Eagles used a great DL to beat KC, few have mentioned that the Eagles had a nice secondary including Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

And if the Bills would have drafted DeJean, half of TBD would have shown up at Beane's house dressed in wrestling singlets armed with pitchforks and flaming torches. The overnight thread after the trade down was full of angry speculation that this was the plan. 

[LEBills]

My personal 2025 WR rankings:

 

#20 Savion Williams WR TCU ( Rd 3-4)

- 5 year hornfrog and team captain

- #56 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List

- Played WR, RB, Wildcat QB and special teams

- Athleticism just pops off the screen

 

What does he do on film?

 

Red Zone Weapon

- :41 just bodies the smaller cornerback for a grown man touchdown

- 3:09 high red zone and he just out athletes the defenders for the touchdown

- 14:25 goal line wild cat QB

 

Moving Chess Piece

- 8:50 able to use his athleticism as a wildcat QB to get one in one with a defender and take the run to the house

- 9:02 align as a RB, catch the seam ball and split the defense for the TD

- 11:39 aligned as a running back takes the swing pass for a good gain

 

Weaknesses:

- He drops a lot of passes. To the point TCU stopped really using him as a receiver late in the year

- Not a good route runner

- Not as good a runner as a running back would be

 

Conclusion:

Savion is not a WR, he is a gadget player. At his maximum potential, he could be a supercharged Taysom Hill. If a team tries to make him a WR he will fail ( I wouldn’t even have ranked him in my top 25 as a pure WR). His value will be as a red zone touchdown maker which is the role he settled into with TCU this year. Touchdowns are valuable, but I’m not sure many coaches outside of Sean Payton will use him well.

[Pete]

 

[Solomon Grundy]

Another old axiom "to win in the NFL, you build from the inside..out"

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, FireChans said:

Moss sucks. But yes, league average back, we still win lots of games and lose to KC.

 

Yea. I think Cook does make a difference over Motor and Moss because they are both backup level running backs. We thought for a couple of years backup + backup = starter. If you were comparing it to say Najee Harris or someone like that it makes minimal difference. 

15 hours ago, LEBills said:

 

Conclusion:

Savion is not a WR, he is a gadget player. At his maximum potential, he could be a supercharged Taysom Hill. If a team tries to make him a WR he will fail ( I wouldn’t even have ranked him in my top 25 as a pure WR). His value will be as a red zone touchdown maker which is the role he settled into with TCU this year. Touchdowns are valuable, but I’m not sure many coaches outside of Sean Payton will use him well.

 

Agree totally with this. 

18 hours ago, Low Positive said:

And if the Bills would have drafted DeJean, half of TBD would have shown up at Beane's house dressed in wrestling singlets armed with pitchforks and flaming torches. The overnight thread after the trade down was full of angry speculation that this was the plan. 

 

Don't count myself in that. I was a defender of the DeJean idea last year. While my preference was a receiver I thought DeJean was a stud and he was my 2nd BPA going into day 2.