Some thoughts on why we can't get over the hump

[BobbyC81]

22 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

They're further away than the score indicated. 

 

No blue chip players around Allen.

Very avg coach with a historically bad defense in the playoffs 

Cap situation isn't bad but we aren't making some huge significant signing 

Gm has been terrible in the draft at the top. 

 

This regime is living off the greatness of an all time all time QB and has done very little 

 

Even going back to Edmunds and Cody Ford. We are overrated in talent 

 

Yup. It only got worse for the Warren Moon oilers. That team was mentally fragile and you can see it with this team and coach. 

 

It's why I want to move on from McDermott and Beane

 

We've all seen how this ends 

Yes, this is similar to the Levy 90’s teams that couldn’t win a Super Bowl in 4 straight years.   In the 4th one, a Thurman fumble returned for a TD that only TIED the game, deflated the whole team in “here we go again” state and the game was essentially over.

[Mikie2times]

8 hours ago, colin said:

Mikey, I'm a little sad you are leaving the MCD haters club.  You have been on a well argued tear and we value your contributions here at the fire MCD side of the aisle.

 

So, in the spirit of positive energy in this thread:

 

We are close.  A great point above is that we made the Chiefs.  We lost to them narrowly for them advance.  Three one score losses means while we are losers to them, they aren't pulling away from us or anything.

 

Talent.  I think it's been made pretty clear that the blue print for winning in the NFL is a star model.  You get the most game impacting talent, particularly at high value positions, as you can.  It's way better to have a few super stars and fill in the gaps than have what we have sort of fallen into.  The good news it's not that big of a shift to get us there.

 

Allen is imo the goat.  He does more with less and succeeds more consistently at a higher degree of difficulty than any player I've ever seen.

 

Dawkins and Brown are both top 5 tackles at their positions.  Trench warfare is big and we have great players there.

 

Cook is a top 5 back, and might just be number 3 behind Barclay and Henry.  He's young and has very few miles and hasn't been banged up.

 

During the playoffs I'd say Oliver was our best player on D.  He turned it on and got huge pressures and disrupted plays better than I've ever seen him.  Groot and AJ had a couple good games but were not good vs kc, Jones did his job but nothing super.  Milano was our second best player on d IMO.  He might have another season or two of tread left on the tires if he can stay healthy (sadly, he never has).

 

If we can add one more actual weapon on O, say a Higgins or something on the outside who can stress the d vertically, we'll have an o that talent wise can match up with anyone at anytime.

 

On d, I think we've seen the same story too many times.  Statistically the worst playoff d over and over, but an impact player might be just enough to get them to not be trucked constantly, give our o another possession or short field and we might have the 9 point lead we need to beat KC.

 

 

This wouldn't be a Colin post without a negative! 

 

Coaching.  Presuming we don't blow out MCD, we almost have to improve on the special teams coach.  Even if we make the above doable upgrades (I say fill in the rest of the holes w draft picks and people we already have) we need our coaching to have the ability to get our players ready and have some extra play calls designed to counter the counters.

 

Clearly I'd like to blow out the entire front office and bring in Bill the cheater, but I don't think that happens so I guess I'll just have to hope that our front office can find a stroke of luck or just smarten up.

 

Just like how the pats won all those chips w late kicks and grind out wins, the path to beat KC requires us to avoid killing ourselves with stupidity.  

I will live to hate another day my friend 🤣

 

Edited yesterday at 02:19 AM by Mikie2times

[Comebackkid]

19 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

We ran EZ fade to Coleman vs McDuffie

 

that was an actual play that was called

and that wasnt the first time we did that exact play in the endzone and amazingly...we had the same results.   plus i hate the short yardage designed runs

for josh atleast in the playoffs...they dont work....i think against balt we did it twice....both times failed.

 

[DuckyBoys]

Bills dug their own hole with bad coaching  All those QB sneaks when the Chiefs kept stopping it  Not challenging some of the very questionable spots  Some of the ridiculous play calls  Too many wasted downs put the offense it bad spots  On defense at some point they needs to adjust to contain Mahomes  I mean how many times were they going to let him get the edge to his right  Not once did anyone step and hem him back in.  Coaching staff is bush league  Brady's offense is like 8 plays  Maybe in 10 years we'll figure out how to run a screen pass to slow down a pass rush  Game was very winnable  Chiefs O line isn't even good and we let two 5 8"   160 lb wrs run all over the place unimpeded  We made washed up JuJu look good  Chiefs got 32 and its 40 without the fumble and they averaged 24 during the regular season  And the refs didn't even have to help them much  

[Kelly to Allen]

23 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm actually not sure that it does. All of these games are coming down to one possession. A few plays scattered across the entire game IS the difference. Their coaches compared to ours in those moments is by far the biggest gap between us IMO. I mean the whole game yesterday could be flipped just on the short yardage plays. That's how close it is.

 

I'll go back to my chess analogy.

 

If person A is constantly losing to player B , do you honestly think it's actually " close"?

 

Or is the micro view giving the illusion that is blinding you from a clear demarcation.

 

The bills lost this game because of some plays etc. but from a 30,000 foot view there are a collection of decisions and moments over a number of years on a macro level that shows KC is a few steps ahead. We all know what they are....

 

I'll give you a perfect example that shows a major gulf but it's just two plays.

 

Look at how the bills coaches handled the last 4th and 5 to extend the drive.

 

 

Then look at how smooth and easily schemed open the KC RB was on 3rd down and 9 to ice the game....

 

We don't have the caliber front office, coach and philosophy that is conducive to winning a championship. That is clear as day to me. It's good to avg but it's not an elite championship level 

 

The offensive philosophy and scheme isn't elite enough to win in many moments that don't necessarily depend on the raw ability and talent of Josh Allen.

 

All of that is coaching, preparation, being innovative and that's the difference. 

 

Here's the sad part. Despite playing the chess game shirt handed without a queen Allen is still almost winning these games. Like Allen's talent Alone is still almost beating Bobby Fischer even without his queen. The queen as an analogy here is coaching and offensive philosophy. 

 

They got to find Allen's version of Mike shanahan 

Edited yesterday at 05:50 AM by Kelly to Allen

[Kelly to Allen]

On 1/28/2025 at 12:58 AM, HappyDays said:

 

See I don't think coming up with a few new creative plays is mastermind stuff. That's standard fare for winning a championship. But every year we just go out there and run our plays. What was our surprise play, a telegraphed fake screen on the final drive? It's laughable.

 

If Chess player A is always losing to chess player B, the matchup in theory could be perceived as close in a micro sense , but is it really? Or is there a clear demarcation when you step back and take a 30,000 foot view?

 

The bills 4th down play compared to the chiefs 3rd and 9 couldn't be more different, and so much more goes into that then just a mesh route etc. 

 

We don't have the offensive philosophy, coaching infrastructure or front office that is on the chiefs level. 

 

I believe they're trying to transition to an offensive philosophy where Allen depends more on the scheme rather than his raw talent. But it's not as smooth and mastered like the chiefs. 

 

This game and loss by 3 is not just the sum of a few plays. It's the sum of many decisions over the years and different organizations with different levels of development and philosophy. 

 

Long story short we need to get Allen his version of Andy Reid or shanahan. Because with McDermott he's playing chess without a queen basically. 

 

We aren't beating Bobby Fischer without our queen 

 

Again, it's time to move on.

 

The part that is astonishing and extremely hopeful is Allen is coming extremely close check mating Bobby Fischer even without a queen. 

 

They gotta get him this eras Bill Walsh imo

 

Edited yesterday at 06:02 AM by Kelly to Allen

[SirAndrew]

14 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

You all realize that even the Chiefs don't have the perfect roster, right? You don't to get the championship game by not being talented enough. They are just better in big games 

Yeah, I think we need a separate post here where we can compare the Chiefs and Bills roster. I don’t think the talent disparity is as great as many claim. I don’t like most of Beane’s recent moves, but we didn’t lose to an elite Kelce. We lost to Mahomes and a bunch of offensive players we’d consider subpar if they were on our roster. 

[nuklz2594]

offense sells tickets. defense wins championships. that says it all. until we get a defense that i stout up front and quicker past the dline...we got nuthin. i miss the days of our 3-4 defenses. 

[BananaB]

Need a new defensive system all together. Can’t keep going on with this system and it coming up short in playoff games. 
 

 

[North Buffalo]

Creativity in key situations and better D too

[nuklz2594]

run the f!@#$%^ ball. our rbs are top 5. our oline are road graders. brady thinks he is the smartest guy in the room...nope. it aint rocket surgery.

tush push...oline and josh are upright...get lower and plow

[PaoloBillsFanFromItaly]

We need a playoff defense.

We need a playoff defense.

[stuvian]

The Bills do 95% of the things necessary to win a title. It's the small things in the margins that allowed us to lose to KC. 

 

We went from pass first to run first this year under Brady. It brought a lot of success in wins and reduced turnovers. It happened in a year we dealt Diggs. It was good timing to switch to run first in the absence of an alpha WR or TE. 

 

While most of us obsessed about our defense being vulnerable I believe it was our offense that failed versus KC and to a lesser extent Baltimore. 

 

Success is intoxicating in that once you are successful doing something, you keep doing it because it works. Such is the case with our running game. I continue to be amazed by James Cook's ability to routinely squeeze through a hole for 6 + yards that doesn't appear to be there on TV.

 

As the season wore on and the wins piled up, our receivers and TEs got further and further removed from the game. At some point our offensive personality changed. We became so intoxicated with winning in a low risk run first offense we thought we could ride it into the sunset. 

 

Five or six weeks is a long time for our receiving corps to be effectively reduced to decoy status. The longer you go without touches, the harder it is to re-establish rhythm and timing. WRs are divas for a reason. They know if they don't get touches they lose their mojo.

 

In the second half versus the Ravens we decided to try and turtle out a win by keeping on the ground. It was terrifying to watch us allow the Ravens to fight their way back in and nearly steal the game away. But a playoff win against a very good time is a win even if it causes near cardiac arrest. 

 

Again we kept it on the ground to the point of mind numbing predictability versus KC. I was shocked that we would try and protect a one point lead with an all running offense against the best football minds and QB. Trying to beat a colossus like the Chiefs playing turtle ball is an invitation to disappointment. I would rather have seen us be daring with some more passing and lose than running it into the pile repeatedly knowing that everyone knew what was coming.

 

We have a great QB who can make plays. You can't back into a Superbowl victory calling plays out of fear. You can't beat an Andy Reid by being predictable. Somewhere along the way we got complacent with the success of our running game and forgot how to win through the air. 

 

It's hard to go away from something that works 90% of the time. But knowing when you have to is the mark of great play calling. 

[miketysonslisp]

I think The real answer to this is Mahomes + Reid are just the best at situational football and possibly the best ever at it. It's like Karl Malone and Barkley trying to win rings in the Jordan era. The opponent is too good and smart and always makes 1 better play when it counts. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 1/27/2025 at 6:03 PM, Mikie2times said:

This is a bit of my own therapy.....

 

Regardless of how you break down the game, for two straight years, we’ve had the ball down by three with our number-one-rated offense, our Superman quarterback, and a chance to tie or win the game. In both years, we failed to do so. It’s difficult to place a lot of blame on a guy who’s literally one of the only reasons we even made it to this point. But the question that we have been asking, and that we all want to know, is: why can’t we get past a certain point in the playoffs? To me, the type of quarterback Josh Allen is is at least part of that story—certainly not all of it—and clearly we wouldn’t even be here in the first place without him. Josh is the most talented quarterback in the NFL. He is the most valuable quarterback in the NFL, but he’s more of a sandlot-style player. His greatest strengths aren’t reading defenses, making pre-snap reads, delivering the hot ball quickly, or running a systematic offense. He’s not like Brady, Montana, or Burrow. And when you’re in moments where you have one drive and it needs to be executed perfectly, his style of quarterback play, in my view, is not optimal. In both years he very well could have overcome it as both of these drives we had a wide receiver or tight end drop a critical ball that could’ve changed the outcome of the game. So we this isn’t on Josh so don’t twist my position that way. Not the optimal style of play for those moments from my view. That is all, we lost as a team.

 

Speaking on which……

 

We’ve missed on several first-round draft choices for multiple years—Elam, Kincaid—and while I wouldn’t say Coleman's is a straight-up miss, when the opportunity was there to potentially draft Worthy or trade up for Thomas, we chose to go with the most risky option: a player that many people were staying away from because of separation issues. We SHOULD be asking questions about our draft strategy. We’ve done a good job in the mid-to-late rounds finding starting-level talent, but we’ve failed to find elite players, elite difference-makers. Further the roster construction at times has been a bit of a head scratcher. We made a great selection in Shakir. He’s shown to be a great YAC guy and a valuable slot receiver. Then we draft Kincaid, who is not a full-time, run-blocking, pass-catching tight end—he’s a receiving tight end. And guess what? You’re not going to be splitting him out wide very often. He’s almost always going to occupy one of your slot roles. Then what do we do in the offseason? We sign Curtis Samuel, who’s another slot-type guy. If that wasn’t enough, if you review Coleman’s tape and some of his advanced stats from MSU and Florida State, you'd see he performed best out of the big slot role, which negated some of his issues, like trouble getting off the ball and separation issues. There was no cohesion in these decisions. There were no complementary wide receivers. It almost felt like when Dorsey called plays, he was calling each one individually, as if the play before had no impact on the next. It felt like we just decided to take players we thought were good and figured we’d make it work later.

 

On the defensive side, I’ve been one of the most vocal critics of McDermott, but I’m tired of it. He’s our coach, and it seems likely he’s not going anywhere for a very long time, right or wrong. I’m tired of 80% of my posts crapping on him. We made some stops in yesterday’s game, and we adjusted pretty effectively in the second half. I trust him as a coach who can stabilize a team, even though I don’t like his system. Crap on him or not, at the end of the day, Kansas City has had incredible success against his system—more so than any other team they’ve faced in the playoffs. Those are facts. Kansas City performs exceptionally well against our defense, especially in the playoffs.

 

We’ve been at this for eight years, and we just don’t have the horses on defense. We lost both of our starting safeties and replaced them with virtually nobody. We have no depth at corner. We had Milano, who we knew wasn’t going to be ready for most of the season, and Bernard, who was a good mid-round pick. We don’t have any players who are top 8 at their positions, outside of Taron Johnson. Maybe Benford, but we just don’t have the horses. So regardless of whether you want to call McDermott’s scheme trash, and it certainly looks that way against Kansas City, he won’t be able to execute it with this talent level.

 

Then there’s the play-calling on offense. We’ve become so dependent on the tush push that we didn’t develop any other short-yardage plays. The only other short-yardage play we had was basically a speed option with Josh and Cook, which worked for a touchdown, one of the most amazing runs I’ve seen from a Bills player in years. But that’s about it. Look at how Kansas City schemed their bootlegs and short-yardage plays against us. When you’re dealing with a heavily compacted defense, if the end is not disciplined (and ours wasn’t), it’s game over. We had no short-yardage plays outside of the one we saw. When you’re going to scheme plays offensively to essentially put yourself in short-yardage situations, you should have a full arsenal of 1- to 2-yard plays at your disposal. But we just said, "Well, screw it, because we’re good at this." Some could argue that Philadelphia is similar, but I’ve never seen Jalen Hurts get stuffed on his own 1-yard line, fumble the ball, and nearly cost his team the game. The second Josh got stuffed on the first sneak for the 2-point conversion, that should’ve been a wake-up call. The push from Kansas City, in addition to Josh’s tentativeness, showed it was a mistake to keep running that play. I don’t care if he got the first down or not—time has told us that you cannot leave it in the hands of the refs.

 

We have a long season ahead and a lot of thinking to do. It sucks, and I don’t know what the answer is. We have some good players, but part of the issue when you re-sign a player whose good but not great is that they occupy that role for a significant time, and you don’t get the chance to get another great player in that spot because you think you’re good enough. It really feels like this team needs a reset, and I don’t know if that’s McDermott or not. As I said, I’m not going to continue talking about him after this post. It’s too much negativity. But this team is starting to feel like it needs the plug pulled. Not because it hasn't been very successful or McD sucks or bla bla, but more because it needs a violent shake-up to go further than it has. If that costs us a year to rebuild, I don’t care. This regime and these players have failed to get it done. Eventually, we need to figure out how to stop that from happening. You can’t just keep saying, "Well, Kansas City is the best, and we lost to the best, so that’s how it is." No. We were inches away from beating the best multiple times. A little better scheme, a little better execution, and a little better roster would’ve made the difference. It was that close, but we failed again. Perhaps we just keep running it back, I just don't know how that is the answer. But when I say blow it up it's not out of hate for these guys. I just don't know what the path forward can be.

 

Love you all and I wish we didn’t have to go thru this.

Coaching and players aren't good enough. That's why we can't get over the hump

[90sBills]

52 minutes ago, miketysonslisp said:

I think The real answer to this is Mahomes + Reid are just the best at situational football and possibly the best ever at it. It's like Karl Malone and Barkley trying to win rings in the Jordan era. The opponent is too good and smart and always makes 1 better play when it counts. 

There’s certainly this element of it. 

[BillsMontreal]

19 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

I'll go back to my chess analogy.

 

If person A is constantly losing to player B , do you honestly think it's actually " close"?

 

Or is the micro view giving the illusion that is blinding you from a clear demarcation.

 

The bills lost this game because of some plays etc. but from a 30,000 foot view there are a collection of decisions and moments over a number of years on a macro level that shows KC is a few steps ahead. We all know what they are....

 

I'll give you a perfect example that shows a major gulf but it's just two plays.

 

Look at how the bills coaches handled the last 4th and 5 to extend the drive.

 

 

Then look at how smooth and easily schemed open the KC RB was on 3rd down and 9 to ice the game....

 

We don't have the caliber front office, coach and philosophy that is conducive to winning a championship. That is clear as day to me. It's good to avg but it's not an elite championship level 

 

The offensive philosophy and scheme isn't elite enough to win in many moments that don't necessarily depend on the raw ability and talent of Josh Allen.

 

All of that is coaching, preparation, being innovative and that's the difference. 

 

Here's the sad part. Despite playing the chess game shirt handed without a queen Allen is still almost winning these games. Like Allen's talent Alone is still almost beating Bobby Fischer even without his queen. The queen as an analogy here is coaching and offensive philosophy. 

 

They got to find Allen's version of Mike shanahan 

Great post. 

On the bullseye.

 

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, miketysonslisp said:

I think The real answer to this is Mahomes + Reid are just the best at situational football and possibly the best ever at it. It's like Karl Malone and Barkley trying to win rings in the Jordan era. The opponent is too good and smart and always makes 1 better play when it counts. 

I think something is to be said for just where we are vs where they’re. When you reach a Patriot level, that’s all you care about. The bones are in place. Winning is almost secondary to situational execution. If I have a degree of hope I think McD will know we are going to get to the playoffs. We will be in position. What this team needs to focus on is execution in critical situations. 
 

What are the 4th and short calls, the final drive defensive calls, the final drive calls. We are at the point where that’s what matters more than anything else.

Edited 13 hours ago by Mikie2times

[DuckyBoys]

when it counts the Chiefs put their players in better position to succeed .   When they need it either Reid called a play that works without asking the players to do anything crazy or Spagnolo called something that wrecked the Bills play call.   Chiefs offense made it look easy barring the fumble and the occasional penalty  There were maybe two or three snaps where a Bills defender ruined the play  Its lack of preparation or plain stubborness 

[oldmanfan]

When it comes down to crunch time, the Chiefs coaches never make a bad call and the Chiefs players never fail to execute.  The Bills don’t, they make a critical mistake or two somewhere.