Kincaid - what happened?

[Shaw66]

14 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I get the everybody eats stuff,but when you have a Kincaid etc, then you find a way to scheme them open. So yes quite a bit of it is on Brady.

Actually, I think it works sort of the other way.  You design schemes that get everyone open, one guy this play, another guy the next.  Then, within that scheme you begin to see opportunities to use your best players' talents to attach more spaces. 

 

I think, for example, that that's how Kelce has caught so many passes. They have schemes to get everyone open, and then they use Kelce's special skills -mostly his brain and understanding of how the offense works, to get to spots on the field from within the scheme.  I think, for example, that the difference between Knox and Kincaid is that Kincaid's skills allow him to attack open spots in the defense better than Knox's skills would allow him to do that.  

 

So, it's not creating plays for Kincaid (although there is certainly some of that) as much as it is letting Kincaid's skill take advantage of what's already there.  For example, the play call may send the tight end up the seam. Every team will run that pattern, and the Bills have run it with Knox since he's been in Buffalo. But when a healthy Kincaid runs it, he can get separation that Knox can't.  Or he can challenge the defense in a way that Knox can't.  The Bills will send Knox on that route, and other teams will send their tight ends on that route; it's just Kincaid is the kind of guy who can get more out of the play than the average tight end. 

[Pete]

On 3/19/2025 at 10:13 AM, Nitro said:

The guy played with two bad wheels most of last season.  That information is out there.  Now you want to trade him for a third rounder.  All I can see is that he would be healthy and in an offense that does not have many options, so he puts up good numbers.  That is drought Bills luck.  Keep him and watch him blossom this season.

whats his excuse for his hands?  For someone with  "best hands in this draft class"  he sure does drop a lot of passes

[Lafromboise]

This whole thing about separation is turning into a joke right now. If anyone ever played football, receivers will almost always be open. Defensive backs really will never know what route your running unless you got the really good ones that anticipate  or, and, do there homework. There's also only one ball to go around 

[Nitro]

12 hours ago, Pete said:

whats his excuse for his hands?  For someone with  "best hands in this draft class"  he sure does drop a lot of passes

75 targets, 6 drops.  He has good hands.  Some other better known receivers have more.  

[Thurman#1]

On 3/20/2025 at 1:29 AM, Mat68 said:

Injuries seemed to derail his season.  As stated by Beane he wants him to get a little bigger.  TE is a hard position to make an immediate impact.  Laporta and Bowers were all time seasons and not the norm.  My big concern is his blocking.  Having 2 TEs doesn't work if 1 cant block.  Kincaid is a passing tell at this point.  He doesn't need to be elite but just average would do wonders. 

 

 

He's improved at blocking. He now does it decently. He is not a road grading guy, and never will be, but he has gotten better at getting in his guy's way and stopping him from getting where he's going. 

 

But yeah, he seems to have been injured. Here's a bit of evidence:

 

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/matthew-berry/news/matthew-berrys-25-most-interesting-things-he-heard-at-2025-nfl-combine

 

The relevant part:

 

"22. I talked with a Bills source who told me Dalton Kincaid’s lack of production last year was because he was a lot more injured than folks realized. 'He’s gonna be a sleeper next year, trust me,' I was told. What about Amari Cooper, I asked? A shrug. 'He might be done.' The implication to me being that Cooper’s days as an elite WR1 might be over, not that he would be leaving Buffalo. I still expect that if anyone would be the focal point of the Bills’ passing offense, it would have to be Khalil Shakir."

[Ga boy]

17 hours ago, Pete said:

whats his excuse for his hands?  For someone with  "best hands in this draft class"  he sure does drop a lot of passes

A 75 mph missile shakes your whole body which vibrated down to his hurting knees.  Try it sometime.

[YodaMan79]

He was overdrafted—plain and simple. As a 23-year-old competing against 18- to 21-year-olds, he had a significant developmental advantage that made him look better than he actually was. Anyone who has competed beyond high school knows how much of a difference that can make. He then entered the league as a 24-year-old rookie, which is highly unusual for a non-QB taken in the first round. It still baffles me.

[Pete]

7 hours ago, Nitro said:

75 targets, 6 drops.  He has good hands.  Some other better known receivers have more.  

He had a paltry 58.7 catch percentage. Shakir had a  86.7 catch percentage with the same QB.  Man you have a low bar for good hands.  Is that Kincaids excuse for dropping the ball against the Chiefs?

[Nitro]

8 hours ago, Pete said:

He had a paltry 58.7 catch percentage. Shakir had a  86.7 catch percentage with the same QB.  Man you have a low bar for good hands.  Is that Kincaids excuse for dropping the ball against the Chiefs?

Quit mixing stats.  drops vs catch percentage.  They are different.  Die on this hill to denigrate Kincaid.  And that drop was on him and Allen.  Better throw would have given him a better chance to make the grab.

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, Nitro said:

Quit mixing stats.  drops vs catch percentage.  They are different.  Die on this hill to denigrate Kincaid.  And that drop was on him and Allen.  Better throw would have given him a better chance to make the grab.

I think maybe two posters know how to properly use catch%. RB’s have the highest catch % in the NFL. It has very little to do with hands (as you’re aware). But let’s be real, Allen was the only guy on the planet that could even out that ball where he did. Your first round TE absolutely must make that play. That was a franchise changing catch and the degree of difficulty was about tenth of the Cook TD run. Our big players need to make big plays when it matters. Otherwise they aren’t big players.  

Edited Saturday at 01:24 AM by Mikie2times

[YodaMan79]

Better throw?  The only other QB in the league that could have made that throw (possibly) was on the other sideline.  DK doesn't deserve your love.    

[Negan]

Lousy blocker, can't get open.  Has no clutch gene.  Big fumble against Bengals a couple years ago.  Huge drop against Chiefs.  Soft AF

[97bills]

1 hour ago, Negan said:

Lousy blocker, can't get open.  Has no clutch gene.  Big fumble against Bengals a couple years ago.  Huge drop against Chiefs.  Soft AF

And that was his madden bio 😉

[Pete]

7 hours ago, Nitro said:

Quit mixing stats.  drops vs catch percentage.  They are different.  Die on this hill to denigrate Kincaid.  And that drop was on him and Allen.  Better throw would have given him a better chance to make the grab.

That was an incredible throw from Allen and amazing that he hit Kincaid in both hands, due to the extreme pressure Allen took.  Allen took a huge hit delivering the ball.  Kincaid didn’t get touched, got both hands on it, and killed the Bills season.  Catch the ***** ball Dalton!

[Mister Defense]

On 1/26/2025 at 11:26 PM, Success said:

Once in awhile - you have to make those tough catches.

 

He hasn't grabbed one of those yet.  He could have won this game tonight.

 

 

 

 

Your OP loses all credibility with that statement, now in bold above.

 

KIncaid has never made a "tough" catch!!

 

But I assume that this was just posted in the heat of the moment, after the very depressing loss.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 02:43 PM by Mister Defense

[NoSaint]

13 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I think maybe two posters know how to properly use catch%. RB’s have the highest catch % in the NFL. It has very little to do with hands (as you’re aware). But let’s be real, Allen was the only guy on the planet that could even out that ball where he did. Your first round TE absolutely must make that play. That was a franchise changing catch and the degree of difficulty was about tenth of the Cook TD run. Our big players need to make big plays when it matters. Otherwise they aren’t big players.  

yea - trading up to get a guy like that you expect some big plays in big moments. 
 

can look at the refs not giving him the first or talk about the knee or the degree of difficulty on the catch…

 

But at some point you need to talk about the plays made too and not just the reasons for near misses 

it’s still very early but a couple of those plays coming through are literal history changers potentially 

Edited Saturday at 02:41 PM by NoSaint

[Pecker]

Not like anyone cares, but  I think what happened with Kinkaid is Brandon Beane.

 

look at our drafts and i think it’s pretty obvious we draft for need at the top of the draft.  And I think Beane is pretty good at his job, so we rarely get “busts”. But we also never get the “stud”

[artmalibu]

4 hours ago, ***** said:

Not like anyone cares, but  I think what happened with Kinkaid is Brandon Beane.

 

look at our drafts and i think it’s pretty obvious we draft for need at the top of the draft.  And I think Beane is pretty good at his job, so we rarely get “busts”. But we also never get the “stud”

 

Or drafting a the back of the 1st round its harder to land a stud, so rarely getting a bust is a good thing...

[NewEra]

On 3/21/2025 at 10:20 AM, Pete said:

He had a paltry 58.7 catch percentage. Shakir had a  86.7 catch percentage with the same QB.  Man you have a low bar for good hands.  Is that Kincaids excuse for dropping the ball against the Chiefs?

If you’re going to use the catch % against you should also mention the rate of uncatchable balls thrown his way, unless you didn’t know it was the highest in the league amongst TE’s and among the highest in the league amongst pass catchers  

[Doc Brown]

Let’s just say if one TE had a one week deal injury in the playoffs.  At this point I’d prefer Knox to play over Kincaid.  Josh and him have better chemistry even though he has fewer targets lining up more inline. That’s how disappointing Kincaid’s been imo.  

There’s still a lot of upside with Kincaid but he needs to make a big leap this year.  BTW, if you watch the tape it’s not due to a lack of effort on Kincaid’s part.