Kincaid - what happened?

[Nitro]

The guy played with two bad wheels most of last season.  That information is out there.  Now you want to trade him for a third rounder.  All I can see is that he would be healthy and in an offense that does not have many options, so he puts up good numbers.  That is drought Bills luck.  Keep him and watch him blossom this season.

[uticaclub]

12 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I’d be packaging Kincaid + a 5th to see if anyone gives us a 3rd

I wouldn't trade him for a pick we might bust on but I would move him for a proven guy on defense, any position we have holes everywhere 

2 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

This! In the wise words of Mr. Arron Rodgers, everyone needs to "R-E-L-A-X." 

 

Come on, this is the off-season; there is no time for wild speculations, fantasies about free-agent signings, or outlandish trade ideas. Everyone just R-E-L-A-X and enjoy the spring weather.

They didn't win the Super Bowl the year he told everyone to RELAX

[Iraq Vet]

People said the same thing about Eric Moulds at the end of his second season... people wanted to trade him. or said that he was a bust.  The 3rd year was Mould's break out.    I am not predicting the same thing...  But look at most WR's and TE's the 3rd year is when we know who they really are. 

 

Again, what year is Khalil Shakir in last year? 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just don't know if we are committed to this offense if he is ever going to be as good of a fit in it as Dawson Knox. I realise he will not be traded. And it makes 2025 make or break for him. If he makes, great. If he breaks, his value might be lower next offseason. But I understand Beane not wanting to give up on consecutive first round picks in the same offseason. That would not look good on his resume. 

Someone said they don't think Kincaid ever will be the focal point of the passing offense.  Tight ends essentially never are the focal point.  Tight ends are guys who take advantage of opportunities created by the offense.  They don't get separation on their own.  Even Kelce, pretty much all he does is run to where the open space is.  He understands their spacing exquisitely, and he and Mahomes are good at seeing the same opportunities. 

 

In his rookie season, Kincaid showed the ability to be available in the open spaces in the defense. His problems last season may have been injuries, may have been changes in how the Bills were defensed and how Brady adjusted - or failed to adjust - the scheme.  What we saw in 2023 was a guy who could be a real weapon in the offense, but he only can do that when he's reasonably healthy and when the wideout passing offense is working effectively.  As much as I've been a believer in the "everyone eats" passing scheme, one or some or all of the wideouts collectively have to emerge as downfield passing threats for Kincaid to be the threat Beane, McDermott, and the fans all envisioned when he was drafted. 

 

 

[Mat68]

Injuries seemed to derail his season.  As stated by Beane he wants him to get a little bigger.  TE is a hard position to make an immediate impact.  Laporta and Bowers were all time seasons and not the norm.  My big concern is his blocking.  Having 2 TEs doesn't work if 1 cant block.  Kincaid is a passing tell at this point.  He doesn't need to be elite but just average would do wonders. 

[st pete gogolak]

This is totally 20/20 hindsight but Kincaid could have been a useful chip to obtain BTJ before last year’s draft. Would our 2024 #1, Kincaid and a 2025 #3 been enough to move up to grab him?  It would have solved a couple of problems. Knox, Morris, Davidson still a healthy TE room and with Thomas a stud boundary WR.  

[BillsFanForever19]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

I see your point but do you think Kincaid added to this group makes some kind of significant difference? 

 

To me, it's about the return. In this scenario - it's Kincaid and a 5th for a 3rd. We aren't gaining a pick. It's a move up and only to the 3rd. So we're creating another hole in the pass catching room with the same amount of picks. As it is, we need another WR and this would make us need another TE too (maybe 2 if they don't like Davidson replacing Morris). That's in addition to the massive amount of help we'll be looking for in the Draft on Defense.

 

And I think that's where the focus is going to go with early picks. Most likely involving trade ups, so we won't have 10. In this scenario, I don't see them replacing the Kincaid spot with anything but a Day 3 pick. And if it's Kincaid or a Day 3 Rookie, i'd take my chances with Kincaid. As I said, i'd be open to moving him if the price is right. But he had a decent Rookie year. He obviously took a step back in Year 2 but he was also injured. 

 

If i'm giving up on a 1st Round Pick after only 2 seasons (1 of which he was dealing with injuries), it needs to be worth it. To me, a pick swap of a 5th and Kincaid for a 3rd isn't that. I think we could get the same trade or close to it next year even with another year of him like last season. IMO we're really not in a position right now (especially after the Hoecht and Ogunjobi suspensions) to create more holes to fix in the Draft while maintaining the same quanity of picks. Someone offers a 3rd straight up, i'd be more open. 

Edited March 19 by BillsFanForever19

[Logic]

I said some version of this in another thread, but since this is the actual Dalton Kincaid discussion thread I'll reiterate what I think happened:

1. Kincaid's injuries likely affected him more than fans are aware of. Beane said he thought Kincaid came back earlier than he could have because he's a competitive guy, but he could tell the injuries were still affecting his play. In particular, I can see how a bum PCL would affect a player like Kincaid in terms of his ability to separate and run nuanced routes.

 

2. Defenses likely adjusted to how they defended Kincaid. Namely, with more physicality. Hence the comments from Beane and McDermott about wanting to see Kincaid get stronger this offseason.

 

3. As the Bills offense became run-first, Knox -- as the superior blocker -- took playing time away from the still-injured and under-strength and inferior blocker in Dalton Kincaid.

 

4. Joe Brady, in my opinion, failed to deploy both Kincaid and Knox in ways that best highlighted their respective abilities. As much as I like Brady, one concern I have about him is his ability to use premiere playmakers to their strengths in the passing game. We saw it with Diggs, then Cooper, and in my opinion, we've seen it with both Knox and Kincaid. 

Overall, I'd say this:

In his rookie year, Kincaid had multiple really productive outings, had a nice rookie year overall, and was chosen by nearly everyone as a year two breakout candidate. I do NOT believe that he simply failed to progress, forgot how to play football, or that he's not going to be a quality NFL tight end. I simply think that the combination of the above factors -- injury, sophomore slump, having another good tight end on the roster, and failure by the OC at times to creatively deploy his tight ends -- led to a down year for Kincaid.

I'm betting that last season and the way the Chiefs game ended and the comments by his coach and GM will light a fire under Kincaid, and he'll come back and -- health permitting -- have a big 2025. I'm betting on a big time bounce-back season.

Edited March 19 by Logic

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

To me, it's about the return. In this scenario - it's Kincaid and a 5th for a 3rd. We aren't gaining a pick. It's a move up and only to the 3rd. So we're creating another hole in the pass catching room with the same amount of picks. As it is, we need another WR and this would make us need another TE too (maybe 2 if they don't like Davidson replacing Morris). That's in addition to the massive amount of help we'll be looking for in the Draft on Defense.

 

And I think that's where the focus is going to go with early picks. Most likely involving trade ups, so we won't have 10. In this scenario, I don't see them replacing the Kincaid spot with anything but a Day 3 pick. And if it's Kincaid or a Day 3 Rookie, i'd take my chances with Kincaid. As I said, i'd be open to moving him if the price is right. But he had a decent Rookie year. He obviously took a step back in Year 2 but he was also injured. 

 

If i'm giving up on a 1st Round Pick after only 2 seasons (1 of which he was dealing with injuries), it needs to be worth it. To me, a pick swap of a 5th and Kincaid for a 3rd isn't that. I think we could get the same trade or close to it next year even with another year of him like last season. IMO we're really not in a position right now (especially after the Hoecht and Ogunjobi suspensions) to create more holes to fix in the Draft while maintaining the same quanity of picks. Someone offers a 3rd straight up, i'd be more open. 

The corollary is that if the Kincaid doesn’t bounce back, his value will likely never be higher. It’s sort’ve the Elam argument. 
 

I get what you’re saying about roster holes and number of picks, but with the 2 6 games suspension, we are talking about potentially making cuts week 7. Unless we do some IR funny business, moving on from fifth or 6th round picks midseason isn’t great either.

 

everything I’ve read about this draft is that it’s a pretty good TE and RB draft. If you could get a third straight up for Kincaid now, I think I’d take it. I think the likelihood the Bills can find a TE that actually fits what they want to do better is pretty high.

 

And that’s the larger point. I’m not sure what the Bills plan for Kincaid was, but at this juncture, I’m not sure I see a ton of value on this team. He’s not really a great blocker, so despite being TE2 he’s not Knox’s backup/future replacement. He’s more Shakir’s backup, and they just paid Shakir to be one of the offensive focal points. You can say value getting back is low, but really what is the value of him being here?

[BillsFanForever19]

59 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I get what you’re saying about roster holes and number of picks, but with the 2 6 games suspension, we are talking about potentially making cuts week 7. Unless we do some IR funny business, moving on from fifth or 6th round picks midseason isn’t great either.

 

The odds that we'll have no one to IR (under the new rules) by Week 7 to open up two spots on the roster is pretty slim. And i'd assume at least one of the later Round picks will be some IR funny business. He does it every year.

 

I don't know. As it is we need 1 starting level CB. 1 starting level 1T (plus at least one more DT as we only have 3 of them on the roster opening day, one of which being Jones who shouldn't even be here anymore). 1 difference making WR. 1 difference making Edge Rusher. And we have to do it with no pick before Pick 30.

 

I'm just not for creating another hole for simply a two round swap of picks from just Round 5 to Round 3. Kincaid in a down year put up 44 receptions for 450 yards in 13 games and that's in the role he'd have this year. 673 the year before. I don't think that's nothing and that you're going to get that from just any Day 3 Tight End Rookie. I also worry about relying on Knox. He had a decent year last season when called upon. But his hands are extremely hot and cold.   

 

Kincaid got a public gut check at the end of the year from the front office. I'm interested in seeing how he responds. I really don't think you're going to get much less than the proposed trade offer next season. Kincaid isn't Elam. Has he lived up to his billing? In season one, he was on his way. He definitely took a step back in Season 2. But I don't think he's so bad and so untalented that we've reached the point where it's like "just get him out of here".

 

 I agree with you that if someone were to straight up offer a 3rd, then that's a consideration. But not for a pick swap. If we're doing a pick swap, it would have to be us picking up something greater than a 3rd. A 4th or a 5th with him for a 2nd, you have my attention. But like I said in the OP, a 3rd is more likely to get you a Dewayne Carter or a Zack Moss than a Spencer Brown.

[Special K]

8 hours ago, Nitro said:

The guy played with two bad wheels most of last season.  That information is out there.  Now you want to trade him for a third rounder.  All I can see is that he would be healthy and in an offense that does not have many options, so he puts up good numbers.  That is drought Bills luck.  Keep him and watch him blossom this season.

 

Exactly.....it was clear to anyone with eyes that Kincaid was playing hurt the second half of last season. He was just a step slower than he should be, and it was giving him trouble getting separation.

 

He should be given credit for gutting it out and trying to contribute.

 

I still believe a fully healthy Kincaid has the potential to be one of the better TE's in the league......you certainly don't trade a guy like that for a 3rd round pick, IMO.

[bigduke6]

waaay tooo early to move off Kincaid.  he had a rough season,  was injured.  just stop.

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

I said some version of this in another thread, but since this is the actual Dalton Kincaid discussion thread I'll reiterate what I think happened:

1. Kincaid's injuries likely affected him more than fans are aware of. Beane said he thought Kincaid came back earlier than he could have because he's a competitive guy, but he could tell the injuries were still affecting his play. In particular, I can see how a bum PCL would affect a player like Kincaid in terms of his ability to separate and run nuanced routes.

 

2. Defenses likely adjusted to how they defended Kincaid. Namely, with more physicality. Hence the comments from Beane and McDermott about wanting to see Kincaid get stronger this offseason.

 

3. As the Bills offense became run-first, Knox -- as the superior blocker -- took playing time away from the still-injured and under-strength and inferior blocker in Dalton Kincaid.

 

4. Joe Brady, in my opinion, failed to deploy both Kincaid and Knox in ways that best highlighted their respective abilities. As much as I like Brady, one concern I have about him is his ability to use premiere playmakers to their strengths in the passing game. We saw it with Diggs, then Cooper, and in my opinion, we've seen it with both Knox and Kincaid. 

Overall, I'd say this:

In his rookie year, Kincaid had multiple really productive outings, had a nice rookie year overall, and was chosen by nearly everyone as a year two breakout candidate. I do NOT believe that he simply failed to progress, forgot how to play football, or that he's not going to be a quality NFL tight end. I simply think that the combination of the above factors -- injury, sophomore slump, having another good tight end on the roster, and failure by the OC at times to creatively deploy his tight ends -- led to a down year for Kincaid.

I'm betting that last season and the way the Chiefs game ended and the comments by his coach and GM will light a fire under Kincaid, and he'll come back and -- health permitting -- have a big 2025. I'm betting on a big time bounce-back season.

Kincaid needs to get healthy, and I feel his and others are why the staff got fired.  He needs to get bigger and stronger, and play stronger mentally.  HE needs to call Allen and go to Allen and work timing and routes. 

 

Let's do that this offseason,  THEN make a decision on the kid.

[3rdand12]

11 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

 

Knox stated that Kincaid was playing with a torn PCL in one knee and an aggravated injury in the other knee. 

 

"It's insane what he's played through"

yep read that quote.

That really was the end of my criticism against Daltons season. Not sure why Bills didnt make more use of Morris and he has solid hands .

Kincaid gets a reset from me.

He showed well enough his first year to see he was going to grow still.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

 

4. Joe Brady, in my opinion, failed to deploy both Kincaid and Knox in ways that best highlighted their respective abilities. As much as I like Brady, one concern I have about him is his ability to use premiere playmakers to their strengths in the passing game. We saw it with Diggs, then Cooper, and in my opinion, we've seen it with both Knox and Kincaid. 
 

I'm not a good enough observer to know any of this for sure, but I think the focus on Brady is correct.  I don't think it's limited to premiere playmakers.  The intention of this passing game is to, by design, stress the defense so that they can't defend every area on the field. That's how they intend to create opportunities for receivers, premiere or otherwise. By my eyes, that wasn't happening as the season progressed. The easy throws that Allen got earlier in the season evaporated.  

 

I think a lot is on Brady. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I'm not a good enough observer to know any of this for sure, but I think the focus on Brady is correct.  I don't think it's limited to premiere playmakers.  The intention of this passing game is to, by design, stress the defense so that they can't defend every area on the field. That's how they intend to create opportunities for receivers, premiere or otherwise. By my eyes, that wasn't happening as the season progressed. The easy throws that Allen got earlier in the season evaporated.  

 

I think a lot is on Brady. 

I get the everybody eats stuff,but when you have a Kincaid etc, then you find a way to scheme them open. So yes quite a bit of it is on Brady.

[PoundingDog]

Bad luck or some sort of a trend of the front office - 2019 we got Oliver but there are other DTs drafted afterwards better, guys that are play more at Chris Jones level; 2020 we traded for Diggs, but Justin Jefferson was drafted with our original draft pick who turns to be a likely HoF player; 2023 we picked Kincaid who looks to be a good player, but LaPorta might be a special player drafted later.

 

But we did pick the best QB in 2018 though. 

[artmalibu]

 I bet the nay sayers here drafted Kincade on their fantasy team and had a bad year....

 

Likely the same folks who lite up the forum with the cut Brown BS.

[Logic]

13 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I get the everybody eats stuff,but when you have a Kincaid etc, then you find a way to scheme them open. So yes quite a bit of it is on Brady.

I believe most offensive coordinators have a page of key plays for each of their best playmakers. The Khalil Shakir page, the Amari Cooper page, etc.

These are plays where if you need to get a certain guy going, or if it's 3rd and 9 and you absolutely need a first down, you flip to this page, and you find your key guys, and you dial up a play that he excels at. As the saying goes, in the biggest moments, "think players, not plays". 

I never felt like Brady had that page or that mindset.

When it was a do-or-die play or do-or-die drive, I never felt like he had that "go-to Dalton Kincaid play" or "go-to Amari Cooper play". 

More importantly, when "everybody eats" wasn't working and the offense was slumping, I never felt like he had the ability to say "***** it, today is gonna be a Dalton Kincaid day" or an Amari Cooper day, or whatever, and just FEED those guys.

If Brady's goal was to fill the offense with Easy Buttons for Josh Allen, then: mission partially accomplished. Josh won MVP and the Bills made the AFCCG. However...IF, as Shaw observed and as we saw at times throughout the AFCCG, those Easy Buttons are starting to be recognized and taken away by opposing defenses, then Brady's offense is going to need to evolve and throw some counter-punches. I'd like to see him start by showing that he can capably feature the team's best playmakers when the chips are down.

[SoonerBillsFan]

19 minutes ago, Logic said:

I believe most offensive coordinators have a page of key plays for each of their best playmakers. The Khalil Shakir page, the Amari Cooper page, etc.

These are plays where if you need to get a certain guy going, or if it's 3rd and 9 and you absolutely need a first down, you flip to this page, and you find your key guys, and you dial up a play that he excels at. As the saying goes, in the biggest moments, "think players, not plays". 

I never felt like Brady had that page or that mindset.

When it was a do-or-die play or do-or-die drive, I never felt like he had that "go-to Dalton Kincaid play" or "go-to Amari Cooper play". 

More importantly, when "everybody eats" wasn't working and the offense was slumping, I never felt like he had the ability to say "***** it, today is gonna be a Dalton Kincaid day" or an Amari Cooper day, or whatever, and just FEED those guys.

If Brady's goal was to fill the offense with Easy Buttons for Josh Allen, then: mission partially accomplished. Josh won MVP and the Bills made the AFCCG. However...IF, as Shaw observed and as we saw at times throughout the AFCCG, those Easy Buttons are starting to be recognized and taken away by opposing defenses, then Brady's offense is going to need to evolve and throw some counter-punches. I'd like to see him start by showing that he can capably feature the team's best playmakers when the chips are down.

Agreed.  I wish this staff had 3 seasons of game planning. 1st half of the season, 2nd half and playoffs.  Look what Reid did, and does to us.  We beat them regular season, then throwd new crap at us come olayoff time.

 

AND everyone eats or not, we need to attack the whole field.  McDermott even addressed the need to attack vertically.   We still need a guy with more speed.  But I digress.