Is it time to move on from McDermott?

[longtimebillsfan]

4 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Well luckily for you and the majority he’ll be back in 2025 to try again. 
 

Exactly.  Raise the roof!!!

[Nihilarian]

 

41 pages on something that's not going to happen. 

 

Its all about the draft and free agency now. We all saw opposing QB's having all day to throw and that means more pass rush.

[MarkyMannn]

3 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

History isn't on the Bills side in terms of coaches staying. Only 2 coaches since the 70s have won a Super Bowl after 5 seasons with a team. 

I think you have that wrong. It's no coach & QB ever won their FIRST SB after being together more than 5 years. 

 

Which is still against the Bills

[Augie]

17 minutes ago, MarkyMannn said:

I think you have that wrong. It's no coach & QB ever won their FIRST SB after being together more than 5 years. 

 

Which is still against the Bills

 

Which is still irrelevant to any game we will play next season.  

[Goin Breakdown]

44 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

 

41 pages on something that's not going to happen. 

 

Its all about the draft and free agency now. We all saw opposing QB's having all day to throw and that means more pass rush.

And we trust this office to draft impact Dlineman that's for sure. 

[billrooter]

On 2/13/2025 at 2:48 PM, MJS said:

So, it sounds like you don't have any specifics about the scheme other than man coverage vs zone coverage. Why even talk about the scheme being an issue if you don't know about the scheme or what you would do differently?

The sceme we run now is highly zone, I think it will be beneficial to play more man to man. Though we might need new players at a corner spot and safety spot IMO. We also have to become more aggressive getting after the QB and a young DE and Dt could be beneficial in the draft. I'm hoping Solomon turns into at least a good situational pass rusher. I don't like how the defense seems to sit back and let offenses dictate the game, hoping these new assistant coaches can inject some aggressive eas into the scheme. There that better *****? Also like to stay up in coverage not 6-8 yards off the receivers allowing them to get into their breaks and routes easy.

Edited February 14 by billrooter

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Man, the sense of entitlement here. Don't let karma hear you. "Just show up."

 

 

 

It's not entitlement. It's reality. The Jets are a dumpster fire. Miami totally effed up their roster last year throwing too much money at Tua, Waddle, and Hill and Hill already wants out. And the Pats, while closest to knocking on our door, are still a ways away.

 

4 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Miami is not far behind us and the Pats could turn things around quickly. I'm not worried about the Jets. Again, we delude ourselves with our own narratives.

 

See, we pretty much agree. But Miami is no where close to catching us.

 

Worst case, we split with the Pats and go 5-1 in the division.

[Nihilarian]

48 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

And we trust this office to draft impact Dlineman that's for sure. 

Free agency also!

 

Hey they went after Von Miller and it was working up until his severe injury...sadly he is probably done. Khalil Mack is an FA, a trade for Max Crosby or Miles Garrett. Stuff to hope for...

[MJS]

8 minutes ago, billrooter said:

The sceme we run now is highly zone, I think it will be beneficial to play more man to man. Though we might need new players at a corner spot and safety spot IMO. We also have to become more aggressive getting after the QB and a young DE and Dt could be beneficial in the draft. I'm hoping Solomon turns into at least a good situational pass rusher. I don't like how the defense seems to sit back and let offenses dictate the game, hoping these new assistant coaches can inject some aggressive eas into the scheme. There that better *****? Also like to stay up in coverage not 6-8 yards off the receivers allowing them to get into their breaks and routes easy.

The defense is aggressive. They don't sit back in soft zone coverage all the time. They do play more man than they have in recent years, and even the teams that play the most man coverage in the league still play more zone than man. The Eagles just destroyed the Chiefs in the superbowl by playing almost exclusively zone coverage and not blitzing at all. The defense does not sit back and let offenses dictate the game. The players lose one on one matchups too much, miss tackles too much, and are out of position too much. That's the issue with the defense. The scheme is complex, nuanced, aggressive, and innovative. The scheme is fine. They need players to execute it better. Part of that is on the coaches. Part of that is talent acquisition. Part of that is on the players themselves.

Edited February 14 by MJS

[Nihilarian]

14 minutes ago, MJS said:

The defense is aggressive. They don't sit back in soft zone coverage all the time. They do play more man than they have in recent years, and even the teams that play the most man coverage in the league still play more zone than man. The Eagles just destroyed the Chiefs in the superbowl by playing almost exclusively zone coverage and not blitzing at all. The defense does not sit back and let offenses dictate the game. The players lose one on one matchups too much, miss tackles too much, and are out of position too much. That's the issue with the defense. The scheme is complex, nuanced, aggressive, and innovative. The scheme is fine. They need players to execute it better. Part of that is on the coaches. Part of that is talent acquisition. Part of that is on the players themselves.

Considering that the Bill's DC was a rookie play-caller last season I'm of a frame of mind that the defense will improve.

[billrooter]

23 minutes ago, MJS said:

The defense is aggressive. They don't sit back in soft zone coverage all the time. They do play more man than they have in recent years, and even the teams that play the most man coverage in the league still play more zone than man. The Eagles just destroyed the Chiefs in the superbowl by playing almost exclusively zone coverage and not blitzing at all. The defense does not sit back and let offenses dictate the game. The players lose one on one matchups too much, miss tackles too much, and are out of position too much. That's the issue with the defense. The scheme is complex, nuanced, aggressive, and innovative. The scheme is fine. They need players to execute it better. Part of that is on the coaches. Part of that is talent acquisition. Part of that is on the players themselves.

So has the scheme been fine in the playoffs against the Chiefs? The Chiefs have turned this defense inside out 4 times now in the playoffs. Was it aggressive with 13 seconds left? We need quality defenders, I get it but why has the defense been toast every year in the playoffs when it matters most? It hasn't been the offense letting us down it's the defense, no matter who we had on the field.

Edited February 14 by billrooter

[MJS]

1 hour ago, billrooter said:

So has the scheme been fine in the playoffs against the Chiefs? The Chiefs have turned this defense inside out 4 times now in the playoffs. Was it aggressive with 13 seconds left? We need quality defenders, I get it but why has the defense been toast every year in the playoffs when it matters most? It hasn't been the offense letting us down it's the defense, no matter who we had on the field.

Injuries have played a huge part. Specific moments and errors on specific plays have played a part, by both players and coaches. Kansas City being better and having actual elite players who make elite plays in critical moments has been a bug difference. We don't really have that outside of Allen.

 

Yeah, I do think part of it is that Andy Reid has been a step ahead of our coaches. He is legitimately one of the greatest coaches of all time. But nobody we bring in is going to be a better coach than him. That just realistically isn't possible.

 

It isn't just one thing, though. All facets of the team share some of the blame. I think talent and lack of elite difference makers is the biggest piece of the pie, personally.

[FireChans]

7 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

The AFC East stinks and will continue to stink. We have a Josh. We will be in the playoffs for the next 3-5 years just by showing up.

 

What type of setback are you worried about?

Drought brain is incurable my man.

 

These folks think McD is all that stands between us and 20 more years of darkness.

 

They probably were afraid to trade Tyrod and draft Josh. “what if it sets us back from scoring 3 points in the WC round?” they cried.

[billrooter]

36 minutes ago, MJS said:

Injuries have played a huge part. Specific moments and errors on specific plays have played a part, by both players and coaches. Kansas City being better and having actual elite players who make elite plays in critical moments has been a bug difference. We don't really have that outside of Allen.

 

Yeah, I do think part of it is that Andy Reid has been a step ahead of our coaches. He is legitimately one of the greatest coaches of all time. But nobody we bring in is going to be a better coach than him. That just realistically isn't possible.

 

It isn't just one thing, though. All facets of the team share some of the blame. I think talent and lack of elite difference makers is the biggest piece of the pie, personally.

Agree with everything you said above, but I also think we don't have to outcoach them but closing the gap could be the difference. That is the thing though, every year we have excuses even if they are legitimate ones. Hoping we don't look back at Allen's career in the league and think, what a shame.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, billrooter said:

Agree with everything you said above, but I also think we don't have to outcoach them but closing the gap could be the difference. That is the thing though, every year we have excuses even if they are legitimate ones. Hoping we don't look back at Allen's career in the league and think, what a shame.

It is a real shame. I hope the Bills can get it done. BTW, Josh Allen shares some of the blame as well. Not in every elimination game, but in some of them. The last two he had the ball in the final moments of the game and did not produce points. He has to be able to step up in those moments. Mahomes always does.

 

Allen is amazing and he is a great QB, but just like Mahomes in the superbowl, sometimes he regresses to some of is old habits in pressure situations.

[Goin Breakdown]

4 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Free agency also!

 

Hey they went after Von Miller and it was working up until his severe injury...sadly he is probably done. Khalil Mack is an FA, a trade for Max Crosby or Miles Garrett. Stuff to hope for...

I hear ya. Ton of money for injury and suspensions with Von. Yeah he's done. I'm guessing he gets let go. You're right. We can hope. I'm sure we'll do something though. 

[PromoTheRobot]

7 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

Again you dismiss the 4% odds of McDermott winning a Super Bowl after 5 seasons. 

 

 

You are quoting a stat, not predicting the future.

[SoTier]

14 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I think what we're seeing in this thread is most people don't ever want to move on from McDermott because it's possible to do worse. 

 

 

 

From a small sample size, historically it's likely to do worse in the long run. I could only find 4 examples of HCs who were fired after a playoff season. TB and Dallas won a SB within 2 seasons of moving on from their fired HC, but both seemed to have paid a price.   The Cowboys have never been back to even the Conference Championship since Switzer's SB win, and Tampa Bay suffered a 12 year playoff drought after Gruden's second WC loss.

• Jimmy Johnson was fired by the Cowboys after he coached the 1993 team its 2nd straight SB.  Jerry Jones hired Barry Switzer who  lost in the NFCCC in his first season and won a SB in his second season, but the Cowboys haven't been back to a Conference Championship game since.
• Tony Dungy was fired after the 2001 season when his Bucs lost a second WC game despite the Bucs making the playoffs 4 out of 6 seasons.  Gruden took the Bucs to the SB the next year but he never coached another Bucs team that won a playoff game.  The Bucs suffered a 12 year playoff drought until Tom Brady joined the team.
• Steve Mariucci was fired from the 49ers in 2002 after losing in the NFC Divisional round.  The Niners failed to make the playoffs for the next 8 seasons.
• After the 2006 season, the Chargers fired Marty Schottenheimer after going 12-4, 9-7, and 14-2 season with 2 unsuccessful playoff appearances.  His successor,  Norv Turner, took the Chargers to 3 straight playoff appearances but never made the SB.  He made 1 AFCCG appearance and lost. The Chargers only have made the playoffs 3 times in the next 15 years.

 

Basically, it's like if there's a loaded roster as with the Cowboys and the Bucs, the new HC might win a SB (even if he's as meh as Barry Switzer) but otherwise, failure is a more likely outcome. 

 

There's also the possibility that the fired coach goes on to win Super Bowls as Dungy did with Indy.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 04:48 AM by SoTier

[Jrb1979]

1 minute ago, SoTier said:

 

From a small sample size, historically it's likely to do worse in the long run. I could only find 4 examples. TB and Dallas won a SB within 2 seasons of moving on from their fired HC, but both seemed to have paid a price.   The Cowboys have never been back to even the Conference Championship since Switzer's SB win, and Tampa Bay suffered a 12 year playoff drought after Gruden's second WC loss.

• Jimmy Johnson was fired by the Cowboys after he coached the 1993 team its straight SBs.  Jerry Jones hired Barry Switzer who won lost in the NFCCC in his first season and won a SB in his second season, but the Cowboys haven't been back to the Conference Championship game since.
• Tony Dungy was fired after the 2001 season when his Bucs lost a second WC loss despite the Bucs making the playoffs 4 out of 6 seasons.  Gruden took the Bucs to the SB the next year but he never coached another Bucs team that won a playoff game.  The Bucs suffered a 12 year playoff drought until Tom Brady joined the team.
• Steve Mariucci was fired from the 49ers in 2002 after losing in the NFC Divisional round.  The Niners failed to make the playoffs for the next 8 seasons.
• After the 2006 season, the Chargers fired Marty Schottenheimer after going 12-4, 9-7, and 14-2 season with 2 unsuccessful playoff appearances.  His successor,  Norv Turner, took the Chargers to 3 straight playoff appearances but never made the SB.  He made 1 AFCCG appearance and lost. The Chargers only have made the playoffs 3 times in the next 15 years.

There's also the possibility that the fired coach goes on to win Super Bowls.  Dungy won one with Indy.

 

 

I would trade 1 Super Bowl win over having a chance but never winning. 

[Shortchaz]

In the simplest terms: we either keep the system and hope the talent improves even though we are in a tight cap situation or we change the system. 
 

I genuinely believe the bills best chance to win one Super Bowl is in the first year following a coaching change.