Is it time to move on from McDermott?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, Augie said:

This is insane to me. I mostly stay quiet and let them carry on, but we were 3 points away from the Super Bowl! A couple plays, a couple calls. They say “we failed again!”  I’m thinking that was a helluva fun season and I hope we can go a little bit farther next year. Talking about the draft before Thanksgiving got old. 

Their logic is having Josh Allen should guarantee the Bills go to the Super Bowl.

 

Having Allen doesn’t guarantee anything. I don’t think people understand this. As I pointed out to someone comparing Allen and Marino. Marino went as a rookie but then spent almost all of his prime years missing the playoffs. Peyton Manning went 6-10 in his prime. Matthew Stafford barely sniffed the playoffs. John Elway 5-11 in his prime. Manning, Elway, and Stafford won with different coaches but it’s not guaranteed, we could get worse.

 

We’re not firing McDermott for losing to the Chiefs. They would fire him if he has a losing season or misses the playoffs. They might fire him for losing in the wildcard game. They might fire him if they get blown out in the playoffs again like vs the Bengals.

 

I understand 13 seconds happened and the defense has failed vs the Chiefs and Bengals. I actually think the conversation should be about hiring a successful defensive coordinator. McDermott is the head coach. He has built a good program here in Buffalo. He is the leader we need. I believe that. There’s nothing wrong with him going out and hiring a top defensive coordinator. 

[Augie]

Just now, Jrb1979 said:

I would prefer them go to go all in and win one and take 3-5 years to rebuild 

 

 

Going all in comes with zero guarantees. Do you want to get close (like we did just last year), then not get a sniff for 3-5 years? Or would you like to sniff every year and hope for the best? I think you know where I land on that.  

[Jrb1979]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

Going all in comes with zero guarantees. Do you want to get close (like we did just last year), then not get a sniff for 3-5 years? Or would you like to sniff every year and hope for the best? I think you know where I land on that.  

I would want to do what the Rams did when they were close. Especially like this past season. When the Bills were one of the best teams, trade some 1sts and get some difference makers. 

[Augie]

9 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

I would want to do what the Rams did when they were close. Especially like this past season. When the Bills were one of the best teams, trade some 1sts and get some difference makers. 

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for any reasonable move for a difference maker(s). Everybody wants that. But at what cost? I think that’s the divide here. I have no control over it, so I’ll wait and see and pray for the best. 

[Jrb1979]

Just now, Augie said:

 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for any reasonable move for a difference maker(s). Everybody wants that. But at what cost? I think that’s the divide here. I have no control over it, so I’ll wait and see and pray for the best. 

That's fair. Since they were this close this season I would trade multiple 1sts to get Garrett, sign Tee Higgins and re structure a bunch of contracts to make it work. 

 

Stop focusing so much on character in the draft. Make talent the number 1 priority. 

[Augie]

16 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

That's fair. Since they were this close this season I would trade multiple 1sts to get Garrett, sign Tee Higgins and re structure a bunch of contracts to make it work. 

 

Stop focusing so much on character in the draft. Make talent the number 1 priority. 

 

Maybe a couple 1sts and pocket change, but that’s just details. I don’t know what the market will look like, and if it’s feasible.  Otherwise that would be my perfect offseason if we add an immovable object at 1T. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, folz said:

 

I understand that there are always guys out there that you could go for, but, there is no guarantee that a new guy can get it done either (even if they did somewhere else). I don't know that I'm in for change, just for the sake of change. For instance, we get enamored by coordinators who have recently done well. But, let's look at Vic Fangio for a moment---great coach, not taking anything away from him, but...

 

Since 2009, Vic Fangio's defenses have averaged a ranking of 13.8 in points against and 13.6 in yards against.

Since 2009, McDermott's defenses have averaged a ranking of 10.8 in points against and 12.4 in yards against.

 

In the playoffs, since 2011, McDermott is 10-10, 3 Championship game appearances, 1 Super Bowl appearance (loss)

Prior to this season's playoffs, Fangio (since 2011) was 5-5, 3 Championship game appearances, 1 Super Bowl appearance (loss). 

[Almost identical, up to this season, just with MCD having more overall games.]

 

As a head coach, Fangio was 19-30 in 3 years with Denver, no playoffs (granted his QBs were Flacco, Bridgewater, and Lock).

From 2015-2023, Fangio's teams (as HC or DC) were 0-2 in the playoffs with 7 years not making the playoffs.

 

I know Philly just had a great playoff run and knocked off the Chiefs with a great defensive performance, but there is no evidence that Fangio would improve on what McDermott has done here in Buffalo overall. Maybe he would, but that's a lot of turnover to kind of get pretty much what we already have.

 

 

I don't think Belichick was a realistic option for either side (the team or Bill). Nor frankly would I have wanted him as coach of the Bills.

 

Not sure how Anarumo would be an improvement. Seven years as a DC in the league. Only one top-10 ranking in 7 years. The last two years, the Bengals finished 31st and 25th overall in defense. Just because Cinci beat KC in the playoffs once?

 

 

And not that I would have endorsed it, but the only reason to cause so much turnover and change would have been if the team wanted to take a shot at a young, up-and-coming offensive coordinator like Johnson. But again, no guarantee. Plus there is the learning curve of being a first-time head coach, a new coaching staff, roster turnover, new offensive and defensive schemes and philosophies, etc....how long do we give the new guy to get it done before we're asking for another change and caught in that 3-year coaching turnover cycle? As close as we are, I think it's a big ask to think someone else can come in and just easily win a Super Bowl in their first two years.

 

I understand that we'll never know if we don't try, and I know that our defense has not been great in the playoffs (for various reasons each year)...but I would like to at least point out that at the end of regulation in the last three playoff games against the Chiefs, K.C. had a combined 6 points more than the Bills. Six points across three games! We were like 3 plays, 3 bounces of the ball away from maybe 3 Super Bowl appearances. And that's not even taking into account the horrible refereeing in the two Championship games vs. K.C. It's frustrating as all hell, but I don't see a good enough reason to blow it all up in the hopes that someone else gets us that one more play/lucky bounce of the ball/referee call(s).

 

 

I know you wrote all of this and it was hard work.

 

the obvious point to “there’s no guarantee that they could do it here” is that there’s also no guarantee McDermott can get his defense right against the Chiefs. Maybe less so because he’s already tried and failed multiple times.

 

Not only that, but to say “there’s no guarantee Fangio could do it here” then somehow use McDermott’s stats from Carolina/Philly while holding Fangio’s record against him in Denver when he had no QB seems inherently unfair.

 

There was no guarantee that Fangio would turn around the Eagles defense when they hired him. He now has a Super Bowl ring. No guarantee though.

 

There was no guarantee firing John Fox and hiring Gary Kubiak would get the Broncos a ring. Of course, they won one. But no guarantee.

 

That’s all fine. If you think McDermott is all that holds us back from being terrible again, I get not wanting to move on.

 

Personally if McD retired tomorrow, I doubt our SB chances take all that much of a hit. I would bet we still win 11 or more games, still cruise to an AFCE title and guaranteed top 4 seed. That’s me. Which is why I don’t think keeping him to fail against the Chiefs and get to 0-9 in the playoffs before we give up makes a whole lot of sense. 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

I think McDermott props up the defense, especially the secondary, and that we see more of the true colors of the team in the playoffs when the difference in talent becomes evident. So yes, I think losing McDermott and changing to another coach would negatively impact the defense in the regular season and result in fewer wins.

The defense wasn’t even that good this year. Outside the top 10, and their efficiency numbers were legit terrible.

 

Was there a game this season we won only because of masterful McD defensive coaching?

57 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

understand 13 seconds happened and the defense has failed vs the Chiefs and Bengals. I actually think the conversation should be about hiring a successful defensive coordinator. McDermott is the head coach. He has built a good program here in Buffalo. He is the leader we need. I believe that. There’s nothing wrong with him going out and hiring a top defensive coordinator

What if McD says no, I’m not hiring a top defensive coordinator.

[MJS]

20 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The defense wasn’t even that good this year. Outside the top 10, and their efficiency numbers were legit terrible.

 

Was there a game this season we won only because of masterful McD defensive coaching?

Because they lost a ton of talent. It was a real issue. And despite that they were able to generate a ton of turnovers which legitimately added to the Bills ability to win games in the regular season and the playoffs.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, MJS said:

Because they lost a ton of talent. It was a real issue. And despite that they were able to generate a ton of turnovers which legitimately added to the Bills ability to win games in the regular season and the playoffs.

Okay fair enough.

 

Are you of the opinion that without McD, the Bills would’ve lost the division to the Dolphins this year?

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

So do you think McD vs (insert coach here) is the difference between being back in the drought, 6 wins every year and winning 11-13 games?

 

What I think the difference between the Bills regularly notching double digit wins and making the playoffs or regularly failing to make the playoffs is Terry Pegula's commitment to winning football games rather than maximizing profits.  

 

That, however, is totally irrelevant to your obsession with not losing again to KC in the playoffs.   Logically, not making the playoffs is the best way to accomplish that.

[FireChans]

Just now, SoTier said:

 

What I think the difference between the Bills regularly notching double digit wins and making the playoffs or regularly failing to make the playoffs is Terry Pegula's commitment to winning football games rather than maximizing profits.  

 

That, however, is totally irrelevant to your obsession with not losing again to KC in the playoffs.   Logically, not making the playoffs is the best way to accomplish that.

So wait, you don’t even think McDermott is the biggest reason we make the playoffs every year but somehow losing him means we wouldn’t make the playoffs anymore?

 

Um

[Jrb1979]

22 minutes ago, MJS said:

Because they lost a ton of talent. It was a real issue. And despite that they were able to generate a ton of turnovers which legitimately added to the Bills ability to win games in the regular season and the playoffs.

For one relying on turnovers isn't sustainable as that has some luck involved. Most agree they lost talent going into this season. I still don't necessarily agree that it's all due to talent that they don't get over the hump. A big one is the philosophy of rotating line men. 

 

[Augie]

 

There are A LOT of people here I would never go into business with. 

[MJS]

24 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Okay fair enough.

 

Are you of the opinion that without McD, the Bills would’ve lost the division to the Dolphins this year?

No, not this year. But last year, absolutely. And even this year, I think we would have been on the road in the playoffs more, which would not have been favorable.

6 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

For one relying on turnovers isn't sustainable as that has some luck involved. Most agree they lost talent going into this season. I still don't necessarily agree that it's all due to talent that they don't get over the hump. A big one is the philosophy of rotating line men. 

Everyone rotates their defensive line.

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, MJS said:

But last year, absolutely

why?

 

isn’t McD kind of at fault for starting out 6-6?

[Slack_in_MA]

3 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

It's the same results. The one constant is the head coach.  

That’s one intellectually lazy analysis, IMO.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

Um, I don't think losing 1 or 2 games is going to cost us the AFCE. We clinched it like week 11 this year.

 

Really?   The Bills have won the AFCE 5 years in a row.  How many seasons did they clinch with 6 weeks left to go besides this year?  Two years was one game and 2 years was 3 games so wouldn't count on that too much.

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Really?   The Bills have won the AFCE 5 years in a row.  How many seasons did they clinch with 6 weeks left to go besides this year?  Two years was one game and 2 years was 3 games so wouldn't count on that too much.

One game because McD coached us to 6-6 at the midpoint. 
 

or was that not his fault too

[Governor]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

The defense wasn’t even that good this year. Outside the top 10, and their efficiency numbers were legit terrible.

 

Was there a game this season we won only because of masterful McD defensive coaching?

What if McD says no, I’m not hiring a top defensive coordinator.

Well, he’s gone as far as hiring multiple DC puppets and then calling it “their” defense to keep his scheme alive and now he’s hiring other defensive coaches signaling a big change but again its to deflect and save his scheme once again.

 

The only one who could make him hire a real DC with a new scheme is Pegula and that won’t happen until McD truly feels his job is in jeopardy.