How aggressive do you want McDermott to be on Sunday?

[LABILLBACKER]

4 minutes ago, K D said:

Depends on the play. Shotgun handoff to a RB from the 2? Then kick it. Josh running it then go for 2. My favorite is rolling right and he can run it or throw it and I prefer he run

Yup, Josh rolling to the right gives you multiple options.  Or a fake qb draw, then jump pass to a TE.

[That's No Moon]

5 minutes ago, K D said:

Depends on the play. Shotgun handoff to a RB or drop back pass from the 2? Then kick it. Josh running it himself, then go for 2. My favorite is rolling right and he can run it or throw it and I prefer he run

P/A pass to Alec Anderson. He bobbles it briefly then clearly hauls it in. We all go insane.

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, MJS said:

Yeah, but that was under the old rules.

 

True. I wonder what the new data shows.

[ColoradoBills]

I'll trust McDermott and Josh to decide.

[hondo in seattle]

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Math isn’t your strong suit I see 😂

 

Imagine we have a time machine and go back to 1920 to watch the Akron Pros tie the Buffalo All-Americans 0-0 in the last week of the season.  But we change history: we allow overtime (not a thing back then) to make sure the first year of the NFL has an undisputed champion.  

 

What are the chances of Buffalo winning in OT?   Based on the best, most consequential evidence (i.e. the scoreboard), each team has an equal ability (or, in this case, inability) to score.  It's a 50-50 proposition.  

 

Generally speaking, overtime games are toss ups.  

[T.E.]

43 minutes ago, Steptide said:

Not sure why anyone would wanna go for 2. You litterally give yourself ONE chance/play to win the game. At least if you go to overtime, you have more than one play to win the game 

Getting two yards with Josh Allen is much more likely than the Bills winning an OT game at Arrowhead.

[Donuts and Doritos]

Depends on the situation. But in general kick it. If Ravens hadn't tried going for 2 the first time they wouldn't have needed to try it again at the end of the game (Harbaugh was too aggressive & it bit him).

 

 

Edited Friday at 10:59 PM by Donuts and Doritos

[Virgil]

59 minutes ago, JÂy RÛßeÒ said:

You say this after seeing the Ravens go for 2 twice, miss both, and lose by 2???

 

Anyone else find it interesting that Harbaugh isn't getting crap for going for 2 both times.  Had he just kicked the first extra point, they wouldn't have needed to go for 2 the second time.  

 

2 point conversions have been the bane of his existence for years, yet somehow he got a pass.

 

Granted, I understand the decision in the moment, down in the 3rd quarter, but still.

[Bray Wyatt]

Bass isn't automatic for xp, we have a shot to end the game with the ball in our hands, gotta trust josh to get it done. Gotta beat the chiefs, not let them hang around, go for 2

[nosejob]

After the Houston and Rams game, kick the damn ball. Take the break to make sure heads aren't in asses. We shoulda been 15-1. We shoulda had the one seed.

Edited Friday at 11:08 PM by nosejob

[BillsFan130]

55 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Nonsense.  The Bengals do.

 

99 percent of the time you don't win by kicking field goals in Arrowhead. Better?

 

 

[klumzyfule66]

Probability says to go for it every single time. Of course some game flow/scoring would dictate just going for one. But certainly first TD in my opinion should always be a 2pt try. Also having Josh will (should) cause buffalo's percentage to be higher than average, since he's a much bigger threat to run.

 

The extra point is only ~95% probability

Two point conversion is typically 50-55%, although apparently for this year it dropped to ~33%.

[Process]

Go for two. Not sure I would survive Bass lining up for a got to have it end of game kick. 

[WotAGuy]

13 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Anyone else find it interesting that Harbaugh isn't getting crap for going for 2 both times.  Had he just kicked the first extra point, they wouldn't have needed to go for 2 the second time.  

 

2 point conversions have been the bane of his existence for years, yet somehow he got a pass.

 

Granted, I understand the decision in the moment, down in the 3rd quarter, but still.

To be fair, once he went for the first one and missed, he was required to do it the second time. It really was about that first decision. 

6 minutes ago, klumzyfule66 said:

Probability says to go for it every single time. Of course some game flow/scoring would dictate just going for one. But certainly first TD in my opinion should always be a 2pt try. Also having Josh will (should) cause buffalo's percentage to be higher than average, since he's a much bigger threat to run.

 

The extra point is only ~95% probability

Two point conversion is typically 50-55%, although apparently for this year it dropped to ~33%.

 

Your rationale seems off. “Probability says to go for it”, then cites percentages that suggest the opposite?
 

Josh had a shot at it against the Ravens and didn’t make it, leading to the FG that won it. How much more evidence do you need to kick it?

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 11:19 PM by WotAGuy

[klumzyfule66]

14 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

Your rationale seems off. “Probability says to go for it”, then cites percentages that suggest the opposite?

 

Sorry I didn't show the math in terms of expected points added per try. 

 

For XP:  1pt x 95% = 0.95 points scored per try

For 2PT: 2pt x 50 or 55% = 1.00 or 1.1 points scored per try (over past handful of years)

 

Admittedly this year percentages look to be a significant outlier from past years, which (in November) suggested only ~0.7 points per try. For some reason I was unable to find NFL wide historical 2pt percentages. However, XP% was 93.0 in 2020 and has increased slowly every year, and was 95.9% in 2024 (according to statmuse)

Edited Friday at 11:28 PM by klumzyfule66

[Drew21PA]

How’s Bass on them field goals ?

[Neo]

Put the games the hands of our best.  

[quincy]

My fear in the scenario posted would be that KC would just hold every Bills player literally on the two point attempt, then as usual the penalty called would be "holding offence number XX", that penalty is declined, that is the end of the game". 

 

I voted to kick the extra point.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I don’t really think about McDermott’s aggressiveness.

 

[WotAGuy]

20 minutes ago, klumzyfule66 said:

Sorry I didn't show the math in terms of expected points added per try. 

 

For XP:  1pt x 95% = 0.95 points scored per try

For 2PT: 2pt x 50 or 55% = 1.00 or 1.1 points scored per try (over past handful of years)

 

Admittedly this year percentages look to be a significant outlier from past years, which (in November) suggested only ~0.7 points per try. For some reason I was unable to find NFL wide historical 2pt percentages. However, XP% was 93.0 in 2020 and has increased slowly every year, and was 95.9% in 2024 (according to statmuse)

How about the actual evidence of Josh not making it from the 2 against the Ravens?  
 

Those EPA applications are fine if you are going to use them to propose a strategy over the course of a season, but are meaningless in a one play scenario, unless they are Bills-specific and recent.