How aggressive do you want McDermott to be on Sunday?

[JoshAllin]

Go for 1, then go for 2 in OT

[GoBills808]

10 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Since 2015, the two-point conversion success rate is 47.5%. 

Overtime gives us a 50% chance of winning. 

 

It's not a big difference but I say play the odds.  

The odds say go for 2

 

The true 2pt success rate is likely closer to approaching >48% since aborted PAT snaps are included... gives us 2*.48(conservatively) for EV of .96 on 2pt attempt

 

And since moving the PAT farther back the conversion rate is sub 95 for EV of <.95 on PAT tries

 

You add in an unreliable kicker in Bass and a QB like Allen w the ball in his hands there is no argument 

[Billsfanatic8989]

I hope the team has a two point play in their pockets that nobody will see coming. Like a Philly special type play. It can't be as simple as running Allen up the gut. 

 

The other option is a fake xp attempt. Pretend you are going for one and go for two. But chances are Allen isn't a part of that play. 

 

 

[PonyBoy]

I'm old school, go for 2 only when you have to or reducing the # of scores you need to tie game.

 

Even with a gassed D, funny bounces, hits, breaks can happen if there are more plays to be called on the field.

[GunnerBill]

In that scenario? Easy call. Go for 2. Josh Allen from the 2 yard line or Pat Mahomes having the ball again? Easy.

 

The harder call is same situation, 30 seconds left. Where I think it is really tricky to call. I'd lean kick I think because I want the Chiefs to come out playing more conservative and certainly in their own half only having 3 downs not 4. 

 

I think 30 seconds, a couple of timeouts and 4 down football your chances of stopping them are next to nil.

[PromoTheRobot]

There's aggressive and there's stupid. Don't be stupid.

[stuvian]

If we win 9 - 6 I won't care about aggression

[jethro_tull]

unless they have a 99% sure fire play no way do they go for two. 

that's a little too aggressive................

12 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

There's aggressive and there's stupid. Don't be stupid.

Exactly.  Be aggressive in overtime.......

[aristocrat]

Fake punts, fake field goals, go for it every fourth down. I wanna see the most reckless wild game of all time 

[bobobonators]

On 1/24/2025 at 3:51 PM, 26TrapDraw said:

I need him to do what he's been doing and trust everyone ( brady and josh) to keep their foot on the gas

I agree. I think McD has shown us numerous times this year he’ll be aggressive enough and do what he has to do to win. 
 

I feel not enough people give him credit for going from being on the more conservative side to the more aggressive side. We go for it on 4th down a lot now. 
 

Allen and McD have both evolved synergistically.  

2 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

Fake punts, fake field goals, go for it every fourth down. I wanna see the most reckless wild game of all time 

I completely disagree. We aren’t a wild underdog that has to rely on tricks to win. We play our game with few turnovers and penalties, and we win. It’s that simple. No trickery needed. 

[hondo in seattle]

53 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The odds say go for 2

 

The true 2pt success rate is likely closer to approaching >48% since aborted PAT snaps are included... gives us 2*.48(conservatively) for EV of .96 on 2pt attempt

 

And since moving the PAT farther back the conversion rate is sub 95 for EV of <.95 on PAT tries

 

You add in an unreliable kicker in Bass and a QB like Allen w the ball in his hands there is no argument 

 

You're correct.  For simplicity's sake, I was assuming PATs were a given (100%).  From an analytics perspective, taking the PAT or going for two is actually pretty much a toss-up as you laid out.  From a coaching perspective, it's situational: how much do you trust your kicker if you kick, your offense if you go for two, or your players in general if you plan on taking it into overtime.  

 

 

[bobobonators]

On 1/24/2025 at 3:50 PM, Einstein said:

Pretend scenario: Allen scores with 00:00’s on the clock in the 4th quarter, to make it Chiefs 27, Bills 26.

 

Option A: Kick the extra point to send the game to Overtime

 

Option B: Go for 2

 

My opinion? Go for it. And also go for any 4th down and 5 or less past mid-field.

In that scenario go for 2. Win the game right there. Live and die by your best player. No questions asked. 
 

OT introduces an entire series of potential happenings that are not in Josh Allen’s control. 

Also, point afters aren’t automatic anymore. Could you imagine you lose bc Bass misses the XP. I’d be sick to my stomach. In that specific scenario you go for 2 10/10 times. 

 

Edited Saturday at 11:56 PM by bobobonators

[GoBills808]

21 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

There's aggressive and there's stupid. Don't be stupid.

Imo stupid is passing up a =/>48% chance at 100% victory for a 95%chance at a 50% victory

[Einstein]

18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Imo stupid is passing up a =/>48% chance at 100% victory for a 95%chance at a 50% victory

 

^ This is true. Math works out.

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Imo stupid is passing up a =/>48% chance at 100% victory for a 95%chance at a 50% victory

 

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

^ This is true. Math works out.

 

40% of the time it works 80% of the time.

[zow2]

The Ravens missed both 2-point conversions and guess what,,, they lost by 2.

 

Dont be stupid and reckless.  Especially if this is looking like a low scoring affair, take every point you can easily obtain.

[Einstein]

2 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The Ravens missed both 2-point conversions and guess what,,, they lost by 2.

 

That logic doesn’t work though. 

 

Because the game would have unfolded differently had they made the first one.

 

If baltimore makes that first 2 pointer, McD is going for 4th and goal from the 2 instead of kicking the field goal.

[aristocrat]

20 hours ago, bobobonators said:

I agree. I think McD has shown us numerous times this year he’ll be aggressive enough and do what he has to do to win. 
 

I feel not enough people give him credit for going from being on the more conservative side to the more aggressive side. We go for it on 4th down a lot now. 
 

Allen and McD have both evolved synergistically.  

I completely disagree. We aren’t a wild underdog that has to rely on tricks to win. We play our game with few turnovers and penalties, and we win. It’s that simple. No trickery needed. 

I love Dan Quinn this is awesome