All this talk about lack of separation in passing game

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Joe Brady was asked about it as well. 

 

Basically said Cooper was not featured in the game plan because the Bills had an idea of how the game would go and what their game plan would be as a result. 

 

I don't buy this. Something isn't right. 

Why don’t you buy it? I 100% buy it. They wanted to be physical and run. Mack Hollins is our WR1, people just aren’t accepting that reality. He plays a very important role in Joe Brady’s offense. Coleman is also a good blocker. That’s what they wanted vs the Ravens.  It’s our identity.

 

I think they will go into this game with more of a passing approach but they still want to run it first. Mack Hollins and Coleman will still lead in snaps unless the game gets away early.

[JP51]

20 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

WR is still very much a need for this team.

I agree with this... not sure Coop is the answer we were all looking for

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Why don’t you buy it? I 100% buy it. They wanted to be physical and run. Mack Hollins is our WR1, people just aren’t accepting that reality. He plays a very important role in Joe Brady’s offense. Coleman is also a good blocker. That’s what they wanted vs the Ravens.  It’s our identity.

 

I think they will go into this game with more of a passing approach but they still want to run it first. Mack Hollins and Coleman will still lead in snaps unless the game gets away early.

Like I said in another thread, I thought their investment in WR was bare minimum heading into the season, but the offense has been great. 

 

The Lions game, the Rams game, numerous other games were the Bills got to the 30+ points easily have all demonstrated that they can turn it up when they need to. 

 

Just feels odd that inefficient Coleman is out there 65% of the time and a 10,000 yard WR is on the field 30% of the time. 

 

I understand Hollins, Shakir and Samuel's roles. 

[Bruffalo]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They need speed outside. Adding a true deep threat to Brady’s offense would open so much up. I’m not sure how to approach it.

 

A cheap option is Darius Slayton. He fits culture, price, and speed.

 

I would also draft someone in the 3rd-5th rounds.

I'd draft someone earlier. Good WRs on rookie deals are the 3rd best value proposition in the NFL (QB and DE being 1 and 2).

 

As much as Josh is elevating the WR Core, I think the passing game is showing some minor limitations compared to some other high powered offenses. 

[Beck Water]

12 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Yet Coleman was on the field way more than Cooper the other day, wasn’t he?  Is Cooper just not able to get separation at this point, and Coleman is the better option?  Is Cooper just not committing enough during the week and hence not seeing the field?  I was excited about the trade for him, but his recent usage is perplexing.

 

The last couple weeks we've prioritized running the ball.  Coleman is a better downfield blocker.   

Samuel has seen similar light usage.  

You can see the pattern with Knox vs Kincaid.  Knox has outsnapped Kincaid at times.  It's because Knox is a better blocker.  Kincaid's blocking is still more of the "get in the way at the right time" flavor and inline - phhht.

 

[gonzo1105]

We’ll find out because Watson is back and Spags will be sending more blitzes than he did last time. So Bills outside WRs are going to have to make some 1 on 1 catches tight coverage or not 

[oldmanfan]

24 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Joe Brady was asked about it as well. 

 

Basically said Cooper was not featured in the game plan because the Bills had an idea of how the game would go and what their game plan would be as a result. 

 

I don't buy this. Something isn't right. 

Can I respectfully ask why would you not believe him?  

[GoBills808]

I would say when you see rando wrs wide open it's more frequently a function of a blown coverage as opposed to scheme...now that's not to say the scheme didn't facilitate the blown coverage but OCs aren't designing plays for guys to be completely uncovered w nobody around, just open enough to make the play

 

but the guys who get NFL open w regularity are typically the wideouts who have the kind of elite physical/technical tools to do it

[SoMAn]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Coleman gets no separation. He is absolutely blanketed on every throw.

 

Cooper we don’t see enough to make a judgement. 

He catches a 30-yard TD, and then disappears for two weeks and plays 30% of snaps. 

 

It’s Samuel and Shakir on crossers, and Mack Hollins gets loose 1-3 times a game.

 

 

I'm skeptical that Coleman will ever amount to any more than James Hardy 2.0.  He's got the size and is athletic, but maybe he is better suited to basketball. He's dropped several. Other than a few jump balls, I can't think of any instances in which he made a contested catch or one that was slightly behind where he had to use more concentration.  The Bills still need an elite # 1 wideout to put this offense into the stratosphere. 

[eball]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Joe Brady was asked about it as well. 

 

Basically said Cooper was not featured in the game plan because the Bills had an idea of how the game would go and what their game plan would be as a result. 

 

I don't buy this. Something isn't right. 

 

Something's not right, I'll agree with you there...

 

It's pretty damned simple.  Cooper is not helpful in the run game.  When we've got 6 OL out there you've only got room for 4 skill players (besides Josh).  That's a RB, 1 or 2 TEs, and 1 or 2 WRs.  Even with a standard 5 OL Cooper only plays if we're throwing 3 WR out there, because Shakir/Coleman/Hollins dominate the 2 WR sets.

 

Not sure what conspiracy theory you're trying to promote.  Cooper will help us at some point, but it's going to be situational (as it has been to this point).

 

** Edited to reflect Coleman, Shakir, and Hollins are getting majority of snaps in 2 WR sets.

 

Edited 2 hours ago by eball

[Orlando Buffalo]

I think part of our scheme is using guys like Hollins who are big bodies and block, therefore separation is not his big attribute. If throwing to Hollins make sure he can body out the DB and who cares if the DB is is plastered to him, small DB is not getting around him to break up pass.

[Steptide]

It kinda surprises me they don't use ty johnson more in the pass game. Even cook has been used sparingly when passing. Honestly not sure where Cooper is. Dude really needs to step up this week 

[FireChans]

44 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Sure, but that happens to every team, look at our Bills defense, they force that type of scenario on most teams they play, their turnover numbers are really good, 

Everything happens to every team. Even great players sometimes fail to separate. Great OC’s call bad plays. Bad defenses can force TO’s and good defenses can fail force TO’s. 

 

The difference at the NFL level is the frequency of which those things occur. 
 

To my eye, there wasn’t a lot of separation by any Bill on Sunday. It was eerily similar to the last meeting with Baltimore (except on the defensive end where we managed to flip the script and forced Lamar to make some mistakes and play from behind).

 

 The idea for trading for Amari Cooper made a lot of sense to shore up our weaknesses on that front, but we have seen them go away from that more and more. He had 53 targets in 6 games with Cleveland and 36 in 10 games with Buffalo. 
 

I don’t know what the deal is. I’m resistant to blame Brady because he did use him to good effect to start. I almost wonder if there’s a behind the scenes thing or hidden injury thing going on.

 

Ultimately, I’m hopeful it matters less this week because while KC has a better team defense than the Ravens, I don’t think they have coverage guys on the level of Hamilton/Humphrey/Wiggins.
 

They have McDuffie, but as only 1 guy with that level of talent, his impact is lessened imo. He can’t cover everybody. 

 

The way Hamilton was flying around to stymie even the quick WR screen was probably the best individual DB play we will face the rest of the postseason. 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Coleman gets no separation. He is absolutely blanketed on every throw.

 

Cooper we don’t see enough to make a judgement. 

He catches a 30-yard TD, and then disappears for two weeks and plays 30% of snaps. 

 

It’s Samuel and Shakir on crossers, and Mack Hollins gets loose 1-3 times a game.

 

 

I remember one game (I think the Broncos game ?) where Coleman was holding onto the CB as they were headed into the end zone sideline.

 

I thought he would push off instead, but maybe worried about a penalty there.

 

You're best bet for Coleman is the crossers over the middle of the field or jump balls in the end zone.

 

The sideline jump ball doesn't seem to be working out.

[transient]

1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Yet Coleman was on the field way more than Cooper the other day, wasn’t he?  Is Cooper just not able to get separation at this point, and Coleman is the better option?  Is Cooper just not committing enough during the week and hence not seeing the field?  I was excited about the trade for him, but his recent usage is perplexing.

My guess as pertains to Sunday was Coleman is a more physical blocker, and we were predominantly running the ball... 22 passing plays to 37 running plays. If Coleman sees 60% of the offensive snaps and Cooper only sees 30% of the offensive snaps, but Cooper's are predominantly on the passing plays do the snap percentages really make that much of a difference? Cook and Shakir were the only players targeted more than twice on Sunday.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

52 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Can I respectfully ask why would you not believe him?  

I guess I'm just getting used to the idea of everyone eats.

 

The Rams, Lions, Jets games showed that the vertical offense can pick up when needed. 

 

The All-22 breakdown this week showed that the Ravens played more Cover-2 (18-snaps maybe) then they have. Also, they said the first go-around that the game plan was focused on stopping the run because they didn't fear anything on the outside from the Bills. 

 

 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

Two things…

 

1 - How much of a WR being wide open is scheme, and or blown coverages?  
 

2 - Very often you see passes completed with a defender very close by…and if the ball wasn’t thrown that way, you would say “he wasn’t open, no separation”. 

Let me put it this way:

- If a WR catches 50% of contested balls, they’re elite at it. 

- If a WR catches 50% of their targets, they’re probably not sticking on an NFL roster. 

 

I have found it interesting that the Bills prioritized acquiring WRs who were excellent separators up until the last couple seasons or so. It seemed to be the #1 driver of their WR choices. Now, not so much for some reason. 

[Beck Water]

23 minutes ago, eball said:

 

Something's not right, I'll agree with you there...

 

It's pretty damned simple.  Cooper is not helpful in the run game.  When we've got 6 OL out there you've only got room for 4 skill players (besides Josh).  That's a RB, 1 or 2 TEs, and 1 or 2 WRs.  Even with a standard 5 OL Cooper only plays if we're throwing 3 WR out there, because Shakir is getting every snap and they like Hollins.

 

Not sure what conspiracy theory you're trying to promote.  Cooper will help us at some point, but it's going to be situational (as it has been to this point).

 

 

Just FYI, Shakir does not get every snap.

 

For example in our 2 playoff games so far, Shakir got 53% and 67% of the snaps, respectively.  Regular season, excluding his 1st game back from injury when he was probably on a snap count, he ranges from a low of 50% to a high of 78%

The WR with the highest snap count on the team for games where he was active, is Keon Coleman.  Excluding the game where he was injured and Week 18, he ranges from a low of 62% to a high of 90%.  Hollins is right behind with 46% to 88%  (overall on the season, Hollins has the highest snap count but that's because knock wood, Shoeless Mack hasn't missed either a game or a household tips Insta

[Beck Water]

15 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Let me put it this way:

- If a WR catches 50% of contested balls, they’re elite at it. 

- If a WR catches 50% of their targets, they’re probably not sticking on an NFL roster. 

 

I have found it interesting that the Bills prioritized acquiring WRs who were excellent separators up until the last couple seasons or so. It seemed to be the #1 driver of their WR choices. Now, not so much for some reason. 

 

It's actually IMO been kind of a reversion.  Remember when Beane traded a 3rd rounder or whatever it was for Fat Kelvin Benjamin?  That was on the stated philosophy that "big catch radius" was the way to go and "he's always open 2 feet over his head".  

 

Then in 2019 when we signed fast smurfs Beasley and Brown, "catch radius" got re-defined as being agile and able to adjust on the ball.  Diggs in 2020, elite route runner with elite hands who could adjust on the ball.

 

The problem is, physical teams were taking those guys away when the playoffs came around and the refs kept the laundry in their pockets. 

 

So now we're hearing about "big catch radius" and "always open over his head" again with Kincaid and Coleman.  The problem for Beane is that we need guys who can win a release cleanly off press man and run elite routes AND are big/physical enough to not get taken away.

 

Coleman was catching more than 50% of his targets before Poyer did whatever he did to his arm (61%) and, the really horrid 20% game he had was with Trubisky and Mike White throwing to him.  I'll give him a little grace, but I lean towards thinking he's this year's Boogie Basham or Cody Ford.

Edited 2 hours ago by Beck Water

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I guess I'm just getting used to the idea of everyone eats.

 

The Rams, Lions, Jets games showed that the vertical offense can pick up when needed. 

 

The All-22 breakdown this week showed that the Ravens played more Cover-2 (18-snaps maybe) then they have. Also, they said the first go-around that the game plan was focused on stopping the run because they didn't fear anything on the outside from the Bills. 

 

 

You’re not alone.

 

A lot of folks think what an Amari Cooper adds to the pass game is more valuable than what a Mack Hollins adds to the run game.

 

Most of the NFL agrees too, which is why Amari is approaching $140M in career earnings and Mack is approaching $11M in career earnings.

 

So when you see the Bills continue to heavily feature Mack, even after trading a significant day 2 asset for Amari Cooper after demonstrating just how badly we needed a boundary WR threat, you start to wonder why. I get not throwing to Amari all the time, philosophically. I don’t get his snap count.

 

Personally, I think there’s three options:

 

#1 - There’s something else going on with Amari that is being kept from the fans. You don’t trade a third round pick midseason for a guy to barely play. We traded similar comp for Douglas last year and he basically was locked in as our starter for 2 seasons. Whether it’s a nagging injury or what is anyone’s guess.

 

#2 - the Bills think that Mack Hollins/Keon Coleman is more valuable playing snap to snap than Amari. To this I would ask, why trade for him?  I would also think they are, respectfully, wrong.

 

#3 - Amari is kinda washed. Maybe all he had in the tank was a couple good games left and he’s been really bad in practice.