Van Noy - "I've never seen them (Bills) do this as conservative they played"

[MasterStrategist]

47 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

I haven’t read the whole thread but this idea that we went conservative in the 3rd quarter is BS. We played a tight, conservative game the whole game. That was the plan. The difference in the 3rd quarter was execution. The plays were there to be made.

 

On the first series, Kincaid was wide open and Allen threw a bad pass. Yeah, Kincaid should have caught it but that pass was ass for a guy who was WIDE OPEN

 

On the 2nd series, Allen correctly alerted to the Knox screen. Why Knox was the target IDK, but that was the alert call in the huddle. Ravens were blitzing from that side. Knox screwed it up by running inside when he had blockers to the outside. Also, no one blocked Van Noy from the opposite side of the line. Poor execution.

 

If you watched Hard Knox, the Ravens game plan was to take away the intermediate to deep passes and “plastering” the receivers on scrambles. They ran a LOT of Tampa 2 and Cover 3 (According to Marino and Cover 1) which basically doubles both your outside receivers. So where’s the beef? With the run game and short passes over the middle which is where we went.

 

It was the perfect game specific game plan and it worked. Yeah, with a few better play calls and better execution it would have been a blow out but it wasn’t. Who cares. We are in the AFC Championship game. 

 

Everyone saying “we need to open it up” doesn’t understand the offensive philosophy. You take what the defense gives you. If KC loads the box you can bet we will look to throw it more. 

 

If we needed to, Josh would have opened it up against the Ravens. He never needed to because we were playing ball control especially in the 4th with a lead. Yeah, it got too close for comfort but we were playing probably the most talented team in the AFC who was peaking at the right time and we won.

 

This is definitely the top post in this thread...

 

This is the most balanced Bills offense we've seen, in a long time.  What every fan of Joe Brady was hoping for coming into the year, while pessimistic fans continued to harp on our lack of WR talent.

 

We can beat every scheme, its all about execution as you said. 

 

Joe Brady should be OC of the year, but I don't expect he'll get it.  1 offseason and he's fixed a lot of fundamental issues that were holding us back, just a bit (redzone, turnovers is amazing, etc), and set team records in the process.

[Rubes]

7 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Why force the pass if it isn’t there?  We saw what they led to under Ken Dorsey.   It sounded like Baltimore ran a lot of 2 high looks on defense. 
 

Believe it or not, I read that the success rate with running the ball in the second half was higher than the first.  
 

You don’t have to like the offensive gameplan but I wouldn’t call it conservative 

 

I agree. I mean, think about it: we were one failed 3rd down inside the 5 from posting 31 points on the best defense in the NFL.

 

[3rdand12]

7 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Why force the pass if it isn’t there?  We saw what they led to under Ken Dorsey.   It sounded like Baltimore ran a lot of 2 high looks on defense. 
 

Believe it or not, I read that the success rate with running the ball in the second half was higher than the first.  
 

You don’t have to like the offensive gameplan but I wouldn’t call it conservative 

You folks make good points for each side of the discussion. Love it.

From my very basic observation of game day ( and little more )  Teams want to stop one thing offenses want to do in the 1st half. and both teams adjust to that.

 the second half adjustments are quicker to the field and change from possession to possession even. 

 Example is  Running to set up pass. Outside to play inside. Going deep to open the middle etc etc

If Bills dont see anything opening up in the pass, they have to run , screen PA etc and hope Defense comes down.

 Bills Defense have a history of being conservative. Offense is wise to take what they can. TOP and grinding wins games , IF the Defense is up to par.

That may not be enough against chefs if we aren't in good shape by second half and risks might be in order

 

Hello Cooper and Samuel , Hollins and Kincaid. Go deep boys

[3rdand12]

5 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

This is definitely the top post in this thread...

 

This is the most balanced Bills offense we've seen, in a long time.  What every fan of Joe Brady was hoping for coming into the year, while pessimistic fans continued to harp on our lack of WR talent.

 

We can beat every scheme, its all about execution as you said. 

 

Joe Brady should be OC of the year, but I don't expect he'll get it.  1 offseason and he's fixed a lot of fundamental issues that were holding us back, just a bit (redzone, turnovers is amazing, etc), and set team records in the process.

Bless You Master.

 this game is going to be a Strategists bliss.

Not to to take anything away from the Players.

 But wow this is a Coaches game for two well matched ( YES ) Teams.

 

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, RunTheBall said:

I haven’t read the whole thread but this idea that we went conservative in the 3rd quarter is BS. We played a tight, conservative game the whole game. That was the plan. The difference in the 3rd quarter was execution. The plays were there to be made.

 

On the first series, Kincaid was wide open and Allen threw a bad pass. Yeah, Kincaid should have caught it but that pass was ass for a guy who was WIDE OPEN

 

On the 2nd series, Allen correctly alerted to the Knox screen. Why Knox was the target IDK, but that was the alert call in the huddle. Ravens were blitzing from that side. Knox screwed it up by running inside when he had blockers to the outside. Also, no one blocked Van Noy from the opposite side of the line. Poor execution.

 

If you watched Hard Knox, the Ravens game plan was to take away the intermediate to deep passes and “plastering” the receivers on scrambles. They ran a LOT of Tampa 2 and Cover 3 (According to Marino and Cover 1) which basically doubles both your outside receivers. So where’s the beef? With the run game and short passes over the middle which is where we went.

 

It was the perfect game specific game plan and it worked. Yeah, with a few better play calls and better execution it would have been a blow out but it wasn’t. Who cares. We are in the AFC Championship game. 

 

Everyone saying “we need to open it up” doesn’t understand the offensive philosophy. You take what the defense gives you. If KC loads the box you can bet we will look to throw it more. 

 

If we needed to, Josh would have opened it up against the Ravens. He never needed to because we were playing ball control especially in the 4th with a lead. Yeah, it got too close for comfort but we were playing probably the most talented team in the AFC who was peaking at the right time and we won.

 

The throw to Kincaid was absolutely there.   In fact they tried it again but a well-timed blitz forced a throw away.  Sometimes it just takes a play to change the trajectory of the game.  I really do think if he makes the catch to move the sticks the drive ends in a TD like the other 2 possessions.  

I agree with everything you said… in the end the Bills won and that’s all that matters. 

 

[Rew]

Agree with the few voices of sanity here.  There was nothing more conservative about our second half gameplan (compared to first half), and the idea we came out running repeatedly is blatantly false.  People need to go rewatch the 2nd half, or look at some drive logs and take notes.  I think many people are as guilty of making up a narrative as the media.

 

We passed 7 out of our first 9 plays.  This small dataset represents most of the 3rd quarter, half of our 2nd half drives, and had zero repeat runs.  We didn't execute.  We picked up 1 first down on 3 sets of downs with a couple of drops, slightly misplaced balls, and good defensive plays.

 

By the time we got to our 3rd drive it had closed to 21-19 with 1 quarter left to play.  The smart drive here is to eat up 6-8 minutes and score a touchdown.  We executed a 4:30 drive that got us to field goal range.  This consisted of 4 passes and 5 runs.  The runs were (11,-1,4,7,2).  There were no back to back runs in the same set of downs.  Likewise there were no Run-Run-Pass sets.  The set of downs that we stalled on consisted of 2 consecutive missed passes.  While we ended up stalling in the passing game, this drive was on track to be exactly what was needed at that point.  We were moving he ball and eating up clock.  While it didn't look easy, we could only blame ourselves for missing plays that were there.  The play calling was not holding us back.

 

4th drive... We get the ball with 8:40 left, up by 5 near mid field.  It's hard to kill 8 minutes on a 54 yard drive, so we start out just trying to move the ball with our normal offense.  Pass for 12, Run for 8, pass for 5, pass for 8, pass for 1. 

 

We are now at 15 passes, 8 runs in the 2nd half.  We have come out pass heavy for 1.5 quarters and are averaging 4YPC on the ground with 3.86 yards per play in pass game.  This was our standard 2nd half attack that looked sluggish because we were playing a good defense and were not executing at our best for those 1.5 quarters.

 

I think this point is when the strategy actually changed and some debate could actually make sense.  We are now at the Bal 21 with 6 minutes left.  McD does the math and says to Brady "we have to score here.  I want you to punch it in, but even if we don't let's see if we can burn some clock and get an easy FG.". We manage to burn another 2.5 minutes and two Baltimore timeouts.  Runs of 8,2,3,5,0.  The call on 3rd from the 2 was a Josh option.  We had our 2 minute drill touchdown of first half on a similar/same play and multiple first down pickups on a similar call.  This was not a conservative call, it was our best call to punch it in.  We just "went to the well" too many times.

 

At the conclusion of meaningful play calling, we ended with 15 passes and 13 runs, including the 5 consecutive runs to kill time at the end.  Like I said, I don't agree with many of the takes and dialogue surrounding the 2nd half.  I saw the exact opposite of a conservative shell.  People are confusing the results with what was called. 

 

I hated the results.  I wish we had executed better or had called something different that was executed better.  But just because what they called didn't work out doesn't give us justification to blame it on Brady or McD.  Call out Josh, Knox, shakir, Kincaid.  Every one of them missed a key 1st down in the 2nd half.  Or just realize you can get an unfortunate streak of 2 drives that just don't work because you are playing a good team.

Edited Friday at 05:08 AM by Rew

[SoTier]

 

11 hours ago, Whites Bay said:

Not to get off topic, but chiming in to agree.  This is what I observed as well.  And during that 1984 season you really couldn't blame Shula.  That was terrifying.

 

And then it just got predicable.

 

It became predictable because the Fins built a team that used running as an afterthought because Shula believed his great QB and 2 great WRs (Mark Clayton, Mark Duper) could beat anybody.  Forty years later, the current iteration of the Fins are built the same way with Tua, Hill and Waddle ... and they're having similar results again against a more balanced Bills team.

 

The posters complaining about the Bills game plan against the Ravens and/or complaining that the Bills aren't taking advantage of Allen's talent by passing more are making the same mistake that Don Shula made 40 years ago: you don't try to throw the ball all over the field just because you have a great QB.  The Bills are not "wasting" Allen's talent by running more than passing against a particular opponent as long as they win the game. 

 

The whole point of playing football games is to outscore opponents not to win statistical battles, especially in the post season!  Marino set all kinds of passing records by the time he retired, but he only made a single Super Bowl and lost it.  The other two great QBs from the 1983 draft class, John Elway and Jim Kelly, made nine trips to the Super Bowl with Elway winning two Lombardis.

 

The Bills need to have 1 more point than the Chiefs on the scoreboard at 00:00 on Sunday night.  I don't care if the score is 38-37 or 10-9.  If they do that, there's no "wasting" of anybody's talent.  Not Josh Allen's, not Von Miller's, not Amari Cooper's, not DaQuan Jones' ... not Joe Andreessen's or Ray Davis'.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 1/21/2025 at 10:10 PM, zow2 said:

When’s the last time the Chiefs were the ones to make game killing mistakes that cost them a playoff game? hasn’t been lately as they’ve won a record 8 straight (without missing the playoffs).  They are the masters of limiting mistakes and doing anything they need to do, to win, even by a point.  and they make all their FGs too which goes under the radar.

2 years ago when Von Miller chased down Mahomes and caused him to throw a duck to Taron Johnson to seal the game. One of the many great Bills regular season wins 

[Bray Wyatt]

1 hour ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

2 years ago when Von Miller chased down Mahomes and caused him to throw a duck to Taron Johnson to seal the game. One of the many great Bills regular season wins 

 

In fairness that is not a playoff game that zow2 asked about

[Buffalo4Life01]

12 hours ago, JohnNord said:

The throw to Kincaid was absolutely there.   In fact they tried it again but a well-timed blitz forced a throw away.  Sometimes it just takes a play to change the trajectory of the game.  I really do think if he makes the catch to move the sticks the drive ends in a TD like the other 2 possessions.  

I agree with everything you said… in the end the Bills won and that’s all that matters. 

 

Does anyone have video of the missed throw to Kincaid?  Try as I may I simply don't remember it lol...

[finn]

On 1/21/2025 at 10:10 PM, zow2 said:

When’s the last time the Chiefs were the ones to make game killing mistakes that cost them a playoff game? 

Three years ago against the Bengals. KC was ahead 21-3 but Mahomes played poorly in the second half and threw an interception in overtime that pretty much ended the game. 

 

Funny how people forget this meltdown in their deification of Mahomes. 

Edited Friday at 02:09 PM by finn

[zow2]

1 minute ago, finn said:

Two years ago against the Bengals. KC was ahead 21-3 but Mahomes played poorly in the second half and threw an interception in overtime that pretty much ended the game. 

 

Funny how people forget this meltdown in their deification of Mahomes. 

 

I get it, I did not forget.  They are currently on a playoff record 8-game winning streak so no team has forced their hand lately.  In their last 7 their high is 27 points so I'm crediting their Defense more than Mahomes for several of those wins.

[finn]

1 minute ago, zow2 said:

 

I get it, I did not forget.  They are currently on a playoff record 8-game winning streak so no team has forced their hand lately.  In their last 7 their high is 27 points so I'm crediting their Defense more than Mahomes for several of those wins.

I didn't mean you at all; I had in mind all the lavish praise media figures have heaped on Mahomes even in this down year, when he has been ordinary. It's gotten to the point that it's taboo to criticize him, which is a pretty strange phenomenon. I mean, he choked in that game against the Bengals, but how often have you heard anyone--anyone at all, at any time--ever bring it up? I don't even hear it mentioned on this board. I get that he redeemed himself since then big time, but not the extent that his meltdown, which cost his team a Super Bowl appearance, should be forgotten entirely. 

[colin]

10 hours ago, Rew said:

Agree with the few voices of sanity here.  There was nothing more conservative about our second half gameplan (compared to first half), and the idea we came out running repeatedly is blatantly false.  People need to go rewatch the 2nd half, or look at some drive logs and take notes.  I think many people are as guilty of making up a narrative as the media.

 

We passed 7 out of our first 9 plays.  This small dataset represents most of the 3rd quarter, half of our 2nd half drives, and had zero repeat runs.  We didn't execute.  We picked up 1 first down on 3 sets of downs with a couple of drops, slightly misplaced balls, and good defensive plays.

 

By the time we got to our 3rd drive it had closed to 21-19 with 1 quarter left to play.  The smart drive here is to eat up 6-8 minutes and score a touchdown.  We executed a 4:30 drive that got us to field goal range.  This consisted of 4 passes and 5 runs.  The runs were (11,-1,4,7,2).  There were no back to back runs in the same set of downs.  Likewise there were no Run-Run-Pass sets.  The set of downs that we stalled on consisted of 2 consecutive missed passes.  While we ended up stalling in the passing game, this drive was on track to be exactly what was needed at that point.  We were moving he ball and eating up clock.  While it didn't look easy, we could only blame ourselves for missing plays that were there.  The play calling was not holding us back.

 

4th drive... We get the ball with 8:40 left, up by 5 near mid field.  It's hard to kill 8 minutes on a 54 yard drive, so we start out just trying to move the ball with our normal offense.  Pass for 12, Run for 8, pass for 5, pass for 8, pass for 1. 

 

We are now at 15 passes, 8 runs in the 2nd half.  We have come out pass heavy for 1.5 quarters and are averaging 4YPC on the ground with 3.86 yards per play in pass game.  This was our standard 2nd half attack that looked sluggish because we were playing a good defense and were not executing at our best for those 1.5 quarters.

 

I think this point is when the strategy actually changed and some debate could actually make sense.  We are now at the Bal 21 with 6 minutes left.  McD does the math and says to Brady "we have to score here.  I want you to punch it in, but even if we don't let's see if we can burn some clock and get an easy FG.". We manage to burn another 2.5 minutes and two Baltimore timeouts.  Runs of 8,2,3,5,0.  The call on 3rd from the 2 was a Josh option.  We had our 2 minute drill touchdown of first half on a similar/same play and multiple first down pickups on a similar call.  This was not a conservative call, it was our best call to punch it in.  We just "went to the well" too many times.

 

At the conclusion of meaningful play calling, we ended with 15 passes and 13 runs, including the 5 consecutive runs to kill time at the end.  Like I said, I don't agree with many of the takes and dialogue surrounding the 2nd half.  I saw the exact opposite of a conservative shell.  People are confusing the results with what was called. 

 

I hated the results.  I wish we had executed better or had called something different that was executed better.  But just because what they called didn't work out doesn't give us justification to blame it on Brady or McD.  Call out Josh, Knox, shakir, Kincaid.  Every one of them missed a key 1st down in the 2nd half.  Or just realize you can get an unfortunate streak of 2 drives that just don't work because you are playing a good team.

 

the criticism of being over conservative isn't based on run vs pass calls, but on being predictable, not doing things to stress the defense, and not rolling the dice with the ball in allen's hands extending plays.  I think they could have broken pattern, used TY and bunch sets, misdirection, motion, and roll outs or called runs for allen to steal some yards.  they did pass, but it was small ball stuff, and the ravens were all over that.  if either of the first two drives in the 3rd broke a medium play for like 12-20 yards on the first 3 snaps I think we get more aggressive on the + side of the field and get 7.  that might have been enough to have henry not be a factor one drive early, which was the drive he trucked us for an easy 7.

 

we won the game and didn't have any toxic plays on O, which is awesome, but there was a window in the game to lock it up early and i'm pretty sure behind closed doors in coaches meetings the bills brain trust is agreeing they need to stress the d in those situations to stick the dagger in and twist it early.

[Mat68]

Play the style the game your in requires. This is what makes Buffalo a scary offense.  They can go heavy and run the ball down your throat.  You wanna play big and take away the run they will spread you out and throw the ball all over the yard.  If your corners are shaky?  They will throw to the wrs.  Your safeties are shaky?  They will throw to Te.  Your linebakers struggle in space?  They will throw to the Rbs.  The defense wins and covers everybody?  Allen will run it.  I expect KC will go for door number 1.  Stop the run.  Early down, early in the game PA could be very deadly. 

[HamptonBillsfan]

The most important aspect of game planning for a talented defensive unit is being unpredictable. My prediction is we start out establishing the short underneath passing game and then incorporate Cook, Ty on 3rd down and Josh with designed runs. This game demands Josh being a threat to break the pocket to force spies and people to account for him. Josh must take vertical shots also to keep a safety protecting deep. This game will come down to special teams, turnovers and limiting Mahomes running and Kelce on broken plays. 

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, HamptonBillsfan said:

The most important aspect of game planning for a talented defensive unit is being unpredictable. My prediction is we start out establishing the short underneath passing game and then incorporate Cook, Ty on 3rd down and Josh with designed runs. This game demands Josh being a threat to break the pocket to force spies and people to account for him. Josh must take vertical shots also to keep a safety protecting deep. This game will come down to special teams, turnovers and limiting Mahomes running and Kelce on broken plays. 

Well once he is a runner ....

 But yes Maintain edge discipline and somebody please cover Kelce.

I wonder how they cover him early ? Bernard ? Johnson ?

[TheFunPolice]

5 hours ago, finn said:

Three years ago against the Bengals. KC was ahead 21-3 but Mahomes played poorly in the second half and threw an interception in overtime that pretty much ended the game. 

 

Funny how people forget this meltdown in their deification of Mahomes. 

 

Isn't that the game where they were inside the 10 right before half and went for 7 and Mahomes ended up running around and killing the clock instead of throwing it away and they got 0 points instead of 3? 

 

That came back to haunt them, because as bad as they played after halftime it still went to OT. With those 3 points they still win. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 1/21/2025 at 10:01 PM, PoundingDog said:

Listening from the enemy side gives you more insight, especially from a guy like Van Noy who has played in AFC East against the Bills for a long time.

 

"That was the most coservative Bills team I've played against." He went on saying he does not believe that's because of talent issue.

 

I remember someone else mentioned no turnovers ,1 sack, 1 penalty, almost no negative plays. Is this the new playoff formula McDermott is subscribing to now? Maybe it explain why no more throwing the ball all over the yard where wide receivers getting little receving action. Does Allen and WRs all buy into it? I guess we will see how it goes.  

 

 

 

 

i think it was the game plan to combat the ravens. I do think they should have stayed aggressive on defense because Lamar was killing us when he wasnt under pressure and the offense needed a bit more aggression on offense in the second half because we let them back into the game, fortunately we won the game.

 

 

[Mat68]

19 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

You folks make good points for each side of the discussion. Love it.

From my very basic observation of game day ( and little more )  Teams want to stop one thing offenses want to do in the 1st half. and both teams adjust to that.

 the second half adjustments are quicker to the field and change from possession to possession even. 

 Example is  Running to set up pass. Outside to play inside. Going deep to open the middle etc etc

If Bills dont see anything opening up in the pass, they have to run , screen PA etc and hope Defense comes down.

 Bills Defense have a history of being conservative. Offense is wise to take what they can. TOP and grinding wins games , IF the Defense is up to par.

That may not be enough against chefs if we aren't in good shape by second half and risks might be in order

 

Hello Cooper and Samuel , Hollins and Kincaid. Go deep boys

That was the cheese given to Allen forever.  Trying the low percentage pass deep outside the number?  Or 5-9 yards?  In the playoffs take the 5-9 if open.  Need explosives but when they are there.  Offense has been very impressive.  I dont care about a laser show.  Win the game.  Allen has that gear.  Less amount of times its needed the better.  Let a defense load the box and run blitz.  Please do.