Base 4-minute Offense - How the Bills Win in January

[T master]

4 hours ago, dorquemada said:

Love it.  I hadn't put it into terms like you did but watching the last few games with my son, we both observed same thing.  Life draining, soul crushing high efficiency low risk plays executed well.  How many times did the Pats do this to the Bills during the drought?

 

Every time . 

[Special K]

The three headed monster at RB, and the elite-level O-line makes this strategy easier to implement for sure.

[JP51]

Love this breakdown.... way to put I think what we are seeing into words and making in tangible. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 hours ago, Ga boy said:

The 4 minute strategy works well when you’ve got the lead as in the case of the Ravens game.  Also, if you want to keep a bruising RB away from your small D.  Supposedly our D was built to stop KC.  We’ll see.  We don’t have anyone to stop Kelce.  Worthy will eat.   My guess is that JA17 and Mahomey will be putting on an air show.

 

I mean it kinda worked against the chiefs this season.... Up 2 we drove the length of the field and went up 9 under 2 to go.  

 

The piece to me that makes it work?  If you are not up - there is a switch you flip with josh allen to change that script.  

[Ralonzo]

7 hours ago, Lost said:

Only problem with this clock chewing 4 minute offense is when you get trigger happy refs.   They're guaranteed to kill a good portion of your drives.  We've seen it a lot this year.   And we aren't the Chiefs are Patriots in that regard where the refs are basically on their rosters.  

 

Situationally it's not great, as we saw on the Dawkins phantom hold that took the Bills behind the sticks and off schedule. Part of the fun of the Bills under Daboll and to an extent Dorsey was that every play was designed to get a first down - but with a lower %age of success. But, we ask, who cares if the plays work 40% of the time? You get 3 downs, you only need it to work once. That was the mindset.

 

Brady's the first OC who is more aligned to what McDermott wants. The plays will have a greater chance of success but with a lower potential yardage. This is to Buffalo's advantage as it gets you to manageable 3rd-and-short or 4th-and-1 situation where you leverage Allen to nearly automatically extend drives. That's the point of 4-minute offense, extended drives, consuming clock and registering points.

 

There's a saying I've heard Josh use where they want every drive ending in a kick: PAT, FG, or punt if you must. Turnovers are regarded (rightly) as being so situationally harmful that the entire offensive philosophy in the 20-odd games since Brady's elevation has completely shifted and it only happens because Brady convinced Allen to buy in and execute it. It's like the difference between buying lottery scratch-offs and investing in bonds. You have high variance with the former - you can win big in the short term but go to that well enough and you'll eventually lose. With the latter, it's boring, but locks in your gains.

 

Edited 7 hours ago by Ralonzo

[Logic]

Great post.

The 2024 Chiefs do this expertly, too.

Sunday's AFCCG is going to be two teams seeing who can out-T.O.P. each other, out-safe/small ball each other. Who can shorten the game most effectively, keep the ball out of their opponents' hands most completely, and limit their opponents' options most dominantly.

I predict fast moving quarters, lower than expected final score and, frankly, a more boring game than we're used to when it comes to Bills-Chiefs matchups.

This is what the Pats always used to do when they were at their best, it's what the Chiefs do nowadays, and it's what the Bills do.

It may not be "exciting", but damned sure is effective!

Edited 7 hours ago by Logic

[Ralonzo]

6 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Agree but it’s kind of like that (Seinfeld?) joke, why don’t they just build the whole plane like the black box?

 

There's always going to be situational offense, 2-minute, tempo/no-huddle, etc. It's been established under Daboll/Dorsey that Allen can sling it all over the yard with maximum arm arrogance, and that's not going away, it'll always be available when needed. I guess the point I didn't make clear is the shift under Brady away from that high variance "modern" NFL offense back to something that looks a lot more like a bygone era. I'm pretty sure as a much younger man I groaned just as much when Check Knox was plowing Joe Cribbs and Curtis Brown and Rosey Leaks into opponents, until he took them to the playoffs. It's still a simple game - you throw, you catch, you run, you block, you tackle. Do it at a higher level than the other guy, and win.