Base 4-minute Offense - How the Bills Win in January

[Ralonzo]

One thing that isn't a media narrative (yet) is how the Bills are winning in the post-drama era, and that's with an elite 4-minute offense that grinds out first downs, eats clock and opponent timeouts, and converts drives to points. Every team does it, but for the Bills it's really their offensive identity in 2024. Why doesn't Allen have so many late 4th quarter comebacks as his peers - well he doesn't need to. It's small-ball, it's minimal risk, but if executed at a superior level it's what the Patriots dynasty showed will win in January (& hopefully February). The Denver Wild Card game was basically the Bills running 4-minute offense the whole game leading to an absurd 24-minute edge in time-of-possession. Against the Ravens, two drives were the epitome: 

 

1) The last drive of the 1st half:

1st & 10 at BUF 30 (3:43 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to J.Cook to BUF 37 for 7 yards (M.Harrison).
2nd & 3 at BUF 37 (2:56 - 2nd) A.Anderson reported in as eligible. R.Davis right tackle pushed ob at BLT 47 for 16 yards (N.Wiggins).
1st & 10 at BAL 47 (2:14 - 2nd) R.Davis left guard to BLT 38 for 9 yards (A.Washington; K.Hamilton).
2nd & 1 at BAL 38 (2:00 - 2nd) J.Cook up the middle to BLT 35 for 3 yards (M.Pierce; R.Smith).
1st & 10 at BAL 35 (1:24 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to K.Shakir to BLT 31 for 4 yards (T.Robinson).
Timeout #2 by BLT at 01:18.
2nd & 6 at BAL 31 (1:18 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Cook right tackle to BLT 30 for 1 yard (M.Pierce; N.Madubuike).
Timeout #3 by BLT at 01:13.
3rd & 5 at BAL 30 (1:13 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to K.Coleman.PENALTY on BLT-T.White, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at BLT 30 - No Play.
1st & 10 at BAL 12 (1:08 - 2nd) J.Cook right tackle to BLT 8 for 4 yards (N.Wiggins).
2nd & 6 at BAL 8 (0:28 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen up the middle to BLT 4 for 4 yards (K.Hamilton).
Timeout #1 by BUF at 00:20.
3rd & 2 at BAL 4 (0:16 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Allen right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-S.Martin.

 

70 yards in 9 plays, using 3:27 of clock and forcing BAL to use 2 timeouts (0 remaining). The key was first down: 2 runs and 2 passes, averaging 6 yards per play. The Bills convert with a touchdown while leaving no time for the opponent and also burning their last 2 timeouts. Near perfection here.

 

2) The penultimate drive of the 2nd half:

1st & 10 at BUF 46 (8:41 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to M.Hollins to BLT 42 for 12 yards (M.Humphrey).
1st & 10 at BAL 42 (7:57 - 4th) R.Davis right guard to BLT 39 for 3 yards (R.Smith; M.Pierce).PENALTY on BLT-D.Ojabo, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at BLT 39.
1st & 10 at BAL 34 (7:27 - 4th) J.Allen pass short left to K.Coleman to BLT 29 for 5 yards (T.White).
2nd & 5 at BAL 29 (6:49 - 4th) J.Allen pass short right to Ty.Johnson ran ob at BLT 21 for 8 yards (R.Smith).
1st & 10 at BAL 21 (6:12 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to C.Samuel to BLT 20 for 1 yard (K.Hamilton). BLT-M.Humphrey was injured during the play.
2nd & 9 at BAL 20 (5:32 - 4th) J.Cook right guard to BLT 12 for 8 yards (N.Madubuike; R.Smith).
3rd & 1 at BAL 12 (5:09 - 4th) (No Huddle) J.Allen left guard to BLT 10 for 2 yards (R.Smith).
1st & Goal at BAL 10 (4:26 - 4th) J.Cook up the middle to BLT 7 for 3 yards (K.Hamilton).
Timeout #1 by BLT at 04:21.
2nd & Goal at BAL 7 (4:21 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen right tackle to BLT 2 for 5 yards (N.Madubuike).
Timeout #2 by BLT at 04:17.
3rd & Goal at BAL 2 (4:17 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen up the middle to BLT 2 for no gain (A.Washington; T.Jones).
Timeout #1 by BUF at 03:31.
4th & Goal at BAL 2 (3:29 - 4th) T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-S.Martin.

 

52 yards in 11 plays, using 5:12 of clock and forcing BAL to use 2 timeouts (1 remaining). First downs: 3 passes, 2 runs (one negated by penalty), averaging nearly 5 yards. While the Bills fail to convert a touchdown here, they do finish with points on a FG to take them "dormie" with 3:29 remaining in the game - i.e. one possession by the opponent cannot give them the lead.

4-minute offense isn't new, the difference with the Bills is it's not as situational, it's just what they do. Early on they might mix in some shots downfield., but once they get ahead in a favorable game situation like those two drives above, they neither need nor want those chunks. It's like a python constricting. Even opponents mounting a furious comeback can run out of runway (e.g. Ravens rematch, Lions). If for some reason the Bills find themselves on the other end of it, you throw 17 his cape and while it might not always work, there's a puncher's chance because Allen is still excellent running the 2-minute offense.

 

The ability to drive with a mix of run and pass, getting ahead of the sticks on 1st down, avoiding negative plays, and stringing together wins play-by-play and series-by-series is the Bills "secret sauce" in the 2024 season. They dictate terms to the opponent, compress the game, eliminate their options and diminish their percentage chances of winning methodically. While the defense can't be relied upon to stop the opponent every time - if someone has made it this far in the playoffs their offense doesn't suck - this is the complementary football that eases the task for the D by taking away options from the opponent, forcing them to look for chunk plays quickly and increasing the odds that Bad Things happen to them. The Bills are on the other end of that lever, minimizing their risk, and because of that, McDermott can spend some of that risk capital on aggressive 4th down decisions and the like. Small wonder that he looks the happiest he's ever been!

[dorquemada]

Love it.  I hadn't put it into terms like you did but watching the last few games with my son, we both observed same thing.  Life draining, soul crushing high efficiency low risk plays executed well.  How many times did the Pats do this to the Bills during the drought?

[oldmanfan]

Very good breakdown.  Brady said at the beginning of the year the philosophy was everybody eats, and they've done that effectively using the run and pass games to complement each other.  The O line is playing great, and Josh has become a master at finding the open guy (not having to force feed Diggs has been a revelation).   Still, so many fans are saying we're wasting Josh and we need to target Cooper and so on.  Can't argue with success though, and we're putting up a ton of points each week.

[SoCal Deek]

Any post that works in the word “penultimate” is okay in my book. 😉

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Any post that works in the word “penultimate” is okay in my book. 😉

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

It’s like having a great bullpen in baseball.  It feels like you have time and then suddenly it’s just over.

[Ralonzo]

17 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

Life draining, soul crushing high efficiency low risk plays executed well.  How many times did the Pats do this to the Bills during the drought?

 

Not sure if it was Belichick or the other Brady that said it but a quote from the era that stuck with me: "Don't practice until you get it right, practice until you can't get it wrong."

[colin]

keeping to your theme of 4 minute drives, the bills clearly aim to maximize the middle 8 of the game.  they were perfect on the first part of that (last 4 min of the 1st half) but failed kinda badly on the second part (our first drive in the 3rd).  I thought the play calling was too conservative coming out, but after seeing the end zone angle of that knox screen, it was there all day and he might broken a big gainer.  obv elated we won the game, but if he moves on that one play, we might set up another drive like the one in the first half and gotten us ahead 28-10.  that likely subtracts the run drive they trucked us in the 3rd for a tub, so it mighta changed the net score by 14 in that quarter, making this a walk away game.

[dorquemada]

1 minute ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Not sure if it was Belichick or the other Brady that said it but a quote from the era that stuck with me: "Don't practice until you get it right, practice until you can't get it wrong."

 

It's a lofty goal to aspire to, but watching Allen the last couple months, i think the Bills can pull it off. We all know Allen can don the cape at any time, but keep this up and he wont have to.

[Lost]

Only problem with this clock chewing 4 minute offense is when you get trigger happy refs.   They're guaranteed to kill a good portion of your drives.  We've seen it a lot this year.   And we aren't the Chiefs are Patriots in that regard where the refs are basically on their rosters.  

[Ralonzo]

19 minutes ago, colin said:

keeping to your theme of 4 minute drives, the bills clearly aim to maximize the middle 8 of the game.  they were perfect on the first part of that (last 4 min of the 1st half) but failed kinda badly on the second part (our first drive in the 3rd).  I thought the play calling was too conservative coming out, but after seeing the end zone angle of that knox screen, it was there all day and he might broken a big gainer.  obv elated we won the game, but if he moves on that one play, we might set up another drive like the one in the first half and gotten us ahead 28-10.  that likely subtracts the run drive they trucked us in the 3rd for a tub, so it mighta changed the net score by 14 in that quarter, making this a walk away game.

 

Yeah the idea occurred to me rewatching the first 2 drives coming out of the half after Romo was puffing the Ravens for forcing a 3 and out and a punt after half. I think Allen kind of missed the throw to Kincaid but it was there. Same with the Knox tunnel screen, he uses to blocking leverage to get outside and he makes it, but that's TE's for you: saw Higbee do the same thing where he keeps running to the stick he makes 1st down easy but cuts upfield right into the defender who stops him, and then the Eagles get the series stop.

(Edit: Allen was PISSED that Van Noy lifted Knox off the ground and drove him into the turf with full body weight, which is supposed to be a penalty of course but...)

 

Back to the point, those two plays were there but not executed, and had the effect of letting the Ravens back in the game. But one thing Brady isn't going to do is let the opponent dictate his offense. That 1st down dive gets 1 yard? He's not abandoning it. Why let the D pin their ears back knowing you won't run? He's also not going full Daboll with 4-wide splits running 20 yard deep overs either. He's going to play to his strength which is the OL, and use the cheat code (Allen) to extend drives, and grind and grind and grind.

Edited 17 hours ago by Ralonzo

[dorquemada]

7 minutes ago, Lost said:

Only problem with this clock chewing 4 minute offense is when you get trigger happy refs.   They're guaranteed to kill a good portion of your drives.  We've seen it a lot this year.   And we aren't the Chiefs are Patriots in that regard where the refs are basically on their rosters.  

 

Lets hope against hope that the controversy around the favoritism by the refs for the Chiefs will keep them slightly more honest. Everyone knows the Chiefs will get the calls but when even the announcers and the replay expert immediately declare that a call is terrible, ultimately that's bad press for the league.  Now, the league is in the absolute grip of a fever dream about taylor swift and thinks that everyone in the US just wants KC KC KC all day long.  Conflicting forces, we'll see what they choose.

[The Jokeman]

6 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

Lets hope against hope that the controversy around the favoritism by the refs for the Chiefs will keep them slightly more honest. Everyone knows the Chiefs will get the calls but when even the announcers and the replay expert immediately declare that a call is terrible, ultimately that's bad press for the league.  Now, the league is in the absolute grip of a fever dream about taylor swift and thinks that everyone in the US just wants KC KC KC all day long.  Conflicting forces, we'll see what they choose.

Yup get ready for the Juwaan Taylor rock back and takes a step or two backwards before the snap to never get called or called once but never again since he seemingly does it on every snap. 

[dorquemada]

2 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Yup get ready for the Juwaan Taylor rock back and takes a step or two backwards before the snap to never get called or called once but never again since he seemingly does it on every snap. 

Dude lines up deeper than the RB and they just let him do it

[Don Otreply]

Excellent thread! 
 

it is how you squeeze the heart out of you opponents, and keep their offense off the field, classic Patriots with Brady at QB, 

 

 

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, The Jokeman said:

Yup get ready for the Juwaan Taylor rock back and takes a step or two backwards before the snap to never get called or called once but never again since he seemingly does it on every snap. 

 

The way to counter that is to have the DE jump across the line every time he moves early. Like an O Linemen false starting when a D Linemen encroaches.  

[Don Otreply]

7 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

The way to counter that is to have the DE jump across the line every time he moves early. Like an O Linemen false starting when a D Linemen encroaches.  

It might work…, 

 

or have everyone point at him every time he does it…, 

Edited 16 hours ago by Don Otreply

[Big Turk]

The most amazing thing is that on 3rd and 4th and under 5 every fan in the stadium knows Allen is keeping the ball to make something happen, everyone on TV knows it, the announcers know it, the refs know it, the defensive coaches and players know it, and they STILL CAN'T STOP IT!

 

That's when you know you got something special.

[Ga boy]

20 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

The most amazing thing is that on 3rd and 4th and under 5 every fan in the stadium knows Allen is keeping the ball to make something happen, everyone on TV knows it, the announcers know it, the refs know it, the defensive coaches and players know it, and they STILL CAN'T STOP IT!

 

That's when you know you got something special.

The 4 minute strategy works well when you’ve got the lead as in the case of the Ravens game.  Also, if you want to keep a bruising RB away from your small D.  Supposedly our D was built to stop KC.  We’ll see.  We don’t have anyone to stop Kelce.  Worthy will eat.   My guess is that JA17 and Mahomey will be putting on an air show.

Edited 16 hours ago by Ga boy
Spell

[Coach Tuesday]

Agree but it’s kind of like that (Seinfeld?) joke, why don’t they just build the whole plane like the black box?