Run the Tush Push everytime

[Solomon Grundy]

15 hours ago, T master said:

 

TO me it all depends on the yardage . When they went for the FG in the 4th i think that was a good call because it was 2+ yds and the Ravens D was ready plus if they went for it and missed the Bills would be the ones sitting home next week watching the AFC Championship game .

 

I would say if they were going to give Josh another chance after the failed attempt i think they should have called it lined up like it was going to be the tush push but josh should get it and run around the end because the D would be expecting the tush push again and throw a twist into it .

 

Who knows they may be saving that for this game . So cudos to McD for making the call to go for the points !!! 

No one trusted McDermott defense to stop the Ravens from going 98 yards if the Bills didn't score the TD?

[Sweats]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

It's the Tush Plow

Geeez, I have to fix everything around here

 

 

 

 

I've actually tried to use this as a pickup line at the bar a few times, with very little success..........surprisingly.

[UConn James]

17 hours ago, Big Turk said:

First off, it's not the Tush Push, it's the Shnowplow

 

 

Fair, but I also propose... The Stampede.

[Sweats]

11 minutes ago, UConn James said:

 

Fair, but I also propose... The Stampede.

 

 

 

I've never tried this one as a pickup line at the bar.

 

Interesting........interesting indeed.

[Don Otreply]

17 hours ago, K-9 said:

Personally, I’d like to see us do a 99 yard drive with nothing but tush pushes all the way down the field. 

Can you just imagine how excited Tom Brady would be about that…,

 

 

🤣

[JP51]

22 hours ago, wnyguy said:

Agree. I thought it was a bad spot.

it was a terrible spot and actually should have been challenged imo... 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

In 1 yard situations, yes. Every time. But the frustrating thing is a lot of these situations we find ourselves in are 2 or 2 plus.

 

3rd and Goal from just beyond the 2 is not a given we're going to get enough push. Especially at the Goal Line and with that defensive front. In hindsight do I wish we would have tried that instead of what we ran? Sure. But that's just bc we know how it went with the play they chose.

 

But honestly, from the spot we were at (which was a rough spot btw) - I wouldn't have called a tush push either. Though I wouldn't have called the play we went with either. I'd have went with an under center handoff with Ray Davis.

 

And if we did go for a Tush Push on 3rd and didn't get in - I'd still have Kicked the FG rather than going for it on 4th anyways. This was the most situational of Situational Football.. situations. Is it possible we got it on 4th and the game was over right there? Sure.

 

You know what else could have happened? We could have been stopped again. And if that happened - we lose the game. Plain and simple. Simply not worth the risk.

 

3rd and goal from the 2 and we ran a QB draw again.  Like... he's one of the best QBs in the league, why can't we throw here?  

Just now, JP51 said:

it was a terrible spot and actually should have been challenged imo... 

 

I believe you can only challenge a spot if it results in a change of down or possession.  

[JP51]

1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

3rd and goal from the 2 and we ran a QB draw again.  Like... he's one of the best QBs in the league, why can't we throw here?  

 

I believe you can only challenge a spot if it results in a change of down or possession.  

I did not know that... seriously... I appreciate that... cause I wondered why we didnt challenge, I understood why the network didnt show it cause it seemed obvious to me and I am sure they didnt want to be labor it... but I had no idea that was the rule.. thanks for that.

[Riverboat Ritchie]

22 hours ago, Dr.Mantis_Toboggan said:

I don’t have a problem with the play, it was more there was no disguise, the Ravens knew exactly what was coming, and the shotgun snap gave them enough time to penetrate the line and hold Josh up.   If they wanted to run that play, I personally would’ve had Josh line up for the tush push, and then when the Ravens set their defense, have Josh “audible” into the gun, and then run the play, bc atleast you’re now sowing the seed of doubt into the Ravens D that this may not just be 17 up the middle after all… or even better, go RPO from the two. I’d like to see more RPO in general with the short passing game being utilized so much anyway. 

Yep. Everyone knew Josh was running there. If you were going to go in Shotgun there, you had to have another option than Josh running. It worked out in the end  but hopefully a lesson learned. Go Bills

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

5 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

No one trusted McDermott defense to stop the Ravens from going 98 yards if the Bills didn't score the TD?

 

Same as a 2 point conversion.  Which has a success rate of probably around 50%.  

 

So win probability is going to factor that as - 50% chance you win the game outright, 50% chance you don't.  Then of that remaining 50%... what are the chances you stop them?  If you don't stop them, whare the chances you stop the 2 point conversion?  In either scenario what are the chances you make the FG after to either win or tie the game?  If it goes to overtime, 50% chance you win the coin toss, then with the ball do you score or do they? 

 

Like it is just a cascade of what if's - Kicking simplifies it to +8, stop them we win, stop the conversion we win, give up 8, and we get the ball to win.  

 

I think the analytical thought is probably go for it - but game flow wise it felt like... this gives us the best chance to win.  Not needing to get the ball and a score to get to OT as well.  

[BringBackFlutie]

8 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Same as a 2 point conversion.  Which has a success rate of probably around 50%.  

 

So win probability is going to factor that as - 50% chance you win the game outright, 50% chance you don't.  Then of that remaining 50%... what are the chances you stop them?  If you don't stop them, whare the chances you stop the 2 point conversion?  In either scenario what are the chances you make the FG after to either win or tie the game?  If it goes to overtime, 50% chance you win the coin toss, then with the ball do you score or do they? 

 

Like it is just a cascade of what if's - Kicking simplifies it to +8, stop them we win, stop the conversion we win, give up 8, and we get the ball to win.  

 

I think the analytical thought is probably go for it - but game flow wise it felt like... this gives us the best chance to win.  Not needing to get the ball and a score to get to OT as well.  

 

I think if you set everything at 50% odds, and a FG at close to 100%, then you just keep multiplying by 50% for each event in the sequence to see that the Ravens' chances of winning drop a lot if we kick a FG. 

 

Kick fieldgoal- Ravens then need a TD - 50%, then a 2 pt conversion - 25%, then stop us from a FG - 12.5%, then win a coin toss - 6.25%, then score a TD - 3.13%, then stop us - 1.6%.

 

Go for it- 50% to stop us, then score a TD, 25%, then stop us, 12.5%.  

 

So like, making broad assumptions, we were 12 times as likely to win by kicking the FG.