Does Mahomes really get preferential treatment from officials?

[NoSaint]

2 minutes ago, SaulGoodman said:

 

I don't think anybody is going to be able to prove anything either way. 

 

If his record with one official was 50-0, and 10-40 with another, that would be an indicator that something's fishy. But 4-0? For all we know that's 4 games vs bad teams. 

yea, I think you have to see a big outlier and then actually look at the games included. 
 

10-0 in major games and consistent calls going their way vs 10-0 because he got 8 softball games that were generally called tight. 
 

it’s a flag for investigating further but not definitive yet as it’s a small sample and assignments may not be totally random 

[SoonerBillsFan]

Well, hit him hard enough he can't come back in the game, and problem solved. Not dirty, late or cheap, just beat the living hell out of him repeatedly. Yes we will get a couple calls, who cares. Mess him  up so badly he can't play worth a damn, or has an early exit.

[US Egg]

It’s “boys crying wolf” in the eyes of the NFL.

[peterpan]

35 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Mahomes is a combined 32-0 when he plays in games officiated by Martin, Rogers, Blake, Boger, Hill, Novak, or Eck.   See Athletic article linked in original post.

So the NFL can easily put its finger on the scale by assigning by one of those crews for Sunday.  
 

unfortunately having tay tays bf in the stands will draw more eyes to the SB

[947]

[billsfan714]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Listen, he’s Patrick Mahomes. He should get calls. Our guy is a flopper because he knows it works, he should also get calls.

 

Stars get calls.

I hate this conventional thinking, like its OK for stars to get calls.   If it was a sport like golf, should Tiger get his lip-outs to count or if it was tennis should Djokovic get calls that are out of the lines count?   Should be an even field for everyone in a sport.

[No_Matter_What]

4 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

There is an article on this in The Athletic.  I'd encourage everyone to read it.  I did some further analysis based on that article.  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6074720/2025/01/20/patrick-mahomes-refs-penalties-chiefs/

 

The answer is yes, for some officials.

 

Lets look at the details.

 

Sando analyzed Mahomes' W-L record by referee.  You'd expect the average record should be about 75%, given he wins 75% of games.

 

I've picked out just a few

Ref                   W-L record

Clay Martin        7-0   (note:  Martin was the ref on Saturday.  hmm....)

Brad Rogers       5-0

Boger                  4-0

Shawn Hochuli    10-2

Cheffers                10-3

Clete Bakeman      6-5

Brad Allen              4-4

 

If we do a chi square analysis of Martin vs Bakeman or Allen, the outcome (P = 0.017 is highly significant).

Obviously the head referee mostly affects games by late hit calls.  The DPI and Hold calls come more from a back judge.  But the referee can affect those calls as well, by guiding "principles" of what to call, and guiding discussions about flags.

 

So me, I'm hoping to see Bakeman or Allen next Sunday.  Anyone but the unholy triumvirate of Martin/Rogers/Boger.

 

 

 

4 hours ago, sullim4 said:

Blakeman and Hochuli IMO are the most likely to see CC assignments at R.  There is an outside chance of Scott Novak potentially getting an assignment as well.

 

1 hour ago, frostbitmic said:

I'm guessing we don't see Bakeman or Allen Sunday.

 

Blakeman it is!

 

 

[sullim4]

This is a very good development.

[somnus00]

Looks like it's official. Blakeman it is.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

19 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Well, hit him hard enough he can't come back in the game, and problem solved. Not dirty, late or cheap, just beat the living hell out of him repeatedly. Yes we will get a couple calls, who cares. Mess him  up so badly he can't play worth a damn, or has an early exit.

The old hockey solution, try to kill the star and take the penalty. Problem solved.

[Charles Romes]

There is a big difference between Allen flopping and mahomes flopping.  When Allen flops he actually sustains a hit and needs to show the ref what the result would be on a regular QB who is not a 6’5 250 pound tank.  Allen should not be placed at a disadvantage  just because he has the ability to brush off massive hits like they are nothing. 

[Supercoupe91]

19 hours ago, billsfan714 said:

I hate this conventional thinking, like its OK for stars to get calls.   If it was a sport like golf, should Tiger get his lip-outs to count or if it was tennis should Djokovic get calls that are out of the lines count?   Should be an even field for everyone in a sport.

 

Its been like this for a long time across all sports.

 

Djokovic doesn't get calls that are outside lines as its electronic now, but he does get extra slack (and makes opponents wait) as he gets into it with the crowd, taunts hecklers, etc.  They are time violations but don't get called.  The umpires aren't going to mess with him in that way, but likely would give violations to lesser known players.

 

Same as Allen and Mahomes getting more late hit/roughing calls than say, Jaden Daniels. 

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

22 hours ago, billsfan714 said:

They're talking about this on first take a few minutes ago, the consensus from the panel---yes he does.   And they mentioned Brady got the same treatment.   Also the NFL was wrong to say refs calls were right.  Your eyes aren't lying to you.

Even when they say certainly individual calls are right they are incorrect, because these supposed ‘right’ calls aren’t called both ways 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

23 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

There is an article on this in The Athletic.  I'd encourage everyone to read it.  I did some further analysis based on that article.  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6074720/2025/01/20/patrick-mahomes-refs-penalties-chiefs/

 

The answer is yes, for some officials.

 

Lets look at the details.

 

Sando analyzed Mahomes' W-L record by referee.  You'd expect the average record should be about 75%, given he wins 75% of games.

 

I've picked out just a few

Ref                   W-L record

Clay Martin        7-0   (note:  Martin was the ref on Saturday.  hmm....)

Brad Rogers       5-0

Boger                  4-0

Shawn Hochuli    10-2

Cheffers                10-3

Clete Bakeman      6-5

Brad Allen              4-4

 

If we do a chi square analysis of Martin vs Bakeman or Allen, the outcome (P = 0.017 is highly significant).

Obviously the head referee mostly affects games by late hit calls.  The DPI and Hold calls come more from a back judge.  But the referee can affect those calls as well, by guiding "principles" of what to call, and guiding discussions about flags.

 

So me, I'm hoping to see Bakeman or Allen next Sunday.  Anyone but the unholy triumvirate of Martin/Rogers/Boger.

 

 

It’s not about the amount of penalties the Chiefs get. It’s about WHEN they get them which always seems to be on a crucial 3rd down to extend the drive. Like when the Texans played them last week. They stopped them twice and both times they benefited from a RTP call. The first one was terrible, but the 2nd one was even worse. If a QB becomes a runner then all bets should be off, he should get the same treatment as every other ball carrier. He was dancing around like a ballerina and got blasted. That’s his own fault. Back to my point, the Chiefs always get these BS RTP and defensive holding calls. It’s garbage and I fully expect it to happen if Buffalo starts pulling away in the score column. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

21 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Listen, he’s Patrick Mahomes. He should get calls. Our guy is a flopper because he knows it works, he should also get calls.

 

Stars get calls.

This id at least understand but why do we get hit with BS penalties when we’re about to open up the game against scrub teams pretty consistently lol. Felt like it was happening every week 

[Billsfanatic8989]

Yes he does. Brady did too. If Allen wins a SB, maybe he can too.

 

The Bills need to be in the league's ear this week. That comes from ownership. 

Edited yesterday at 03:00 PM by Billsfanatic8989

[Jauronimo]

34 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

There is a big difference between Allen flopping and mahomes flopping.  When Allen flops he actually sustains a hit and needs to show the ref what the result would be on a regular QB who is not a 6’5 250 pound tank.  Allen should not be placed at a disadvantage  just because he has the ability to brush off massive hits like they are nothing. 

Allen sells a lot of nothing plays.  He flops his head back and throws his arms in the air like he was just shot in a low budget western.  And no QB in the game today does it better.

 

 

[Bill from NYC]

21 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Listen, he’s Patrick Mahomes. He should get calls. Our guy is a flopper because he knows it works, he should also get calls.

 

Stars get calls.

The star that is getting the calls is Taylor Swift.

[Jauronimo]

I don't care if its 15 yards, every time Mahomes does his patented fake like hes going out of bounds and the hop back inside and run for another 6 yards after the defenders let up he needs to pay for it.  I expect the competition committee will be reviewing this soon.  Its too much to ask of the defenders to let up around the sideline to avoid the late hit and make sure he actually gives himself up.

[beebe]

among active QBs, josh allen draws the most roughing the passer penalties in the NFL on a per-game basis with 38 in 122 games (0.31 per game). allen drew 11 roughing the passer penalties in the 2020 season. i believe that is a modern NFL record (no other QB has drawn more than 8 in a year in data that goes back the last 15 years.) 

 

allen had seven roughing calls last year and five more this year. 

 

mahomes has had 31 career roughing the passer penalties, or 0.23 per game, which ranks him ninth among active QBs. but mahomes also throws far more than the league average and has attempted more passes than his peers who entered the league at roughly the same time. for example, mahomes has attempted ~800 more passes than allen since entering the league and has played nine more games (includes playoffs). given that, you'd expect mahomes to have more - not less.

 

if you break it down by dropbacks, it looks like this:

 

allen: 0.93 per 100 (3rd most penalties drawn)

mahomes: 0.64 per 100 (20th most)

 

among the 31 roughing the passer penalties for mahomes, eight of them have come in playoff games or super bowls. someone with more time than me can go through the eight plays and determine if they are legit or not - or the timing - or how much they mattered. 

 

i don't think the chiefs get preferential treatment from refs. the numbers actually suggest the opposite (not just mahomes, but the chiefs in general.) the common counter argument is that "it's not how many penalties, it's when." i read a recent analysis that suggested the chiefs are not major beneficiaries in one-score games in 2nd halves either. 

 

the fans of 31 teams who call the refs biased for the chiefs likely have a bias against the chiefs themselves. they're sick of the chiefs. they actively root against the chiefs. and nobody plays in primetime or on national tv more than the chiefs. "calling out the chiefs" has become an easy way for media members to get attention and claiming the refs don't have bias but are equally bad for all teams is the surest way to be hated and called a clown. 

 

no other team in the league has fans that all come together to create frame-by-frame replays, zoomed-in images and super slow motion videos quite like the chiefs. because of this, the chiefs flags draw outsized attention/coverage/reaction. people simply don't care if there's a bad call in a panthers or colts game. interestingly, america defended the chiefs in the 2018 afc championship game when two and possibly three rotten calls went against them to help the patriots win the game. but at that point in time, america loved mahomes and the chiefs and were alleging that the patriots got all the calls and that the nfl was cheating for them. 

 

next time you watch a bills game and see a bad call - whether it be the atrocious call against dawkins or the questionable pass interference penalty that benefited coleman in the ravens game - just ask yourself: "what if this was the chiefs?" 

 

because those calls, while they got some attention, generated very little media coverage broadly.

 

and the PI flag, whether it was right or wrong, was probably the biggest call of the game in terms of win expectancy.