Does Mahomes really get preferential treatment from officials?

[pennstate10]

There is an article on this in The Athletic.  I'd encourage everyone to read it.  I did some further analysis based on that article.  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6074720/2025/01/20/patrick-mahomes-refs-penalties-chiefs/

 

The answer is yes, for some officials.

 

Lets look at the details.

 

Sando analyzed Mahomes' W-L record by referee.  You'd expect the average record should be about 75%, given he wins 75% of games.

 

I've picked out just a few

Ref                   W-L record

Clay Martin        7-0   (note:  Martin was the ref on Saturday.  hmm....)

Brad Rogers       5-0

Boger                  4-0

Shawn Hochuli    10-2

Cheffers                10-3

Clete Bakeman      6-5

Brad Allen              4-4

 

If we do a chi square analysis of Martin vs Bakeman or Allen, the outcome (P = 0.017 is highly significant).

Obviously the head referee mostly affects games by late hit calls.  The DPI and Hold calls come more from a back judge.  But the referee can affect those calls as well, by guiding "principles" of what to call, and guiding discussions about flags.

 

So me, I'm hoping to see Bakeman or Allen next Sunday.  Anyone but the unholy triumvirate of Martin/Rogers/Boger.

 

 

[billsfan714]

They're talking about this on first take a few minutes ago, the consensus from the panel---yes he does.   And they mentioned Brady got the same treatment.   Also the NFL was wrong to say refs calls were right.  Your eyes aren't lying to you.

[sullim4]

Blakeman and Hochuli IMO are the most likely to see CC assignments at R.  There is an outside chance of Scott Novak potentially getting an assignment as well.

[Just Jack]

The NFL needs to start fining the refs for bad/missed calls like they fine players for on field behavior.  

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Listen, he’s Patrick Mahomes. He should get calls. Our guy is a flopper because he knows it works, he should also get calls.

 

Stars get calls.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, sullim4 said:

Blakeman and Hochuli IMO are the most likely to see CC assignments at R.  There is an outside chance of Scott Novak potentially getting an assignment as well.

Clete would be fair. Hercules Jr hates Buffalo.  Yes there is obvious and blatant favoritism for Mahomes.  We all see it.   It was the same for Brady for 20 years.  The Jordan rules is alive and well.  We will have to beat the refs & KC.  A tall order but doable.

[Fr. Jerk]

[frostbitmic]

I'm guessing we don't see Bakeman or Allen Sunday.

[Mango]

I’m actually glad KC got some blatant favoritism against Houston. The whole country ripped that game apart.
 

Aikman and Co put the league on blast during the game. Houston was crazy open about it. Then it was a major topic the next day and basically unanimously agreed upon by every network that it was terrible officiating. 
 

I think that sets up nicely for a “get right” game from the officials/league. 

[Buffalo03]

Yes. I don't care what article or statistics say, we all see what's going on. We have eyes. Mahomes definitely gets preferential treatment 

[SaulGoodman]

2 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

There is an article on this in The Athletic.  I'd encourage everyone to read it.  I did some further analysis based on that article.  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6074720/2025/01/20/patrick-mahomes-refs-penalties-chiefs/

 

The answer is yes, for some officials.

 

Lets look at the details.

 

Sando analyzed Mahomes' W-L record by referee.  You'd expect the average record should be about 75%, given he wins 75% of games.

 

I've picked out just a few

Ref                   W-L record

Clay Martin        7-0   (note:  Martin was the ref on Saturday.  hmm....)

Brad Rogers       5-0

Boger                  4-0

Shawn Hochuli    10-2

Cheffers                10-3

Clete Bakeman      6-5

Brad Allen              4-4

 

If we do a chi square analysis of Martin vs Bakeman or Allen, the outcome (P = 0.017 is highly significant).

Obviously the head referee mostly affects games by late hit calls.  The DPI and Hold calls come more from a back judge.  But the referee can affect those calls as well, by guiding "principles" of what to call, and guiding discussions about flags.

 

So me, I'm hoping to see Bakeman or Allen next Sunday.  Anyone but the unholy triumvirate of Martin/Rogers/Boger.

 

 

 

I don't think sample sizes of 4 or 5 tell you much. 

[HOUSE]

This is just a myth. Patrick Mahomes is abused every week.

[Captain Hindsight]

4 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

This is just a myth. Patrick Mahomes is abused every week.

You think his wife is that rough with him?

[The Cincinnati Kid]

3 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

You think his wife is that rough with him?

He does have three kids…

[Just Jack]

15 minutes ago, The Cincinnati Kid said:

He does have three kids…

 

Are they actually his?  Has a DNA test been done? 

[pennstate10]

23 minutes ago, SaulGoodman said:

 

I don't think sample sizes of 4 or 5 tell you much. 

Mahomes is a combined 32-0 when he plays in games officiated by Martin, Rogers, Blake, Boger, Hill, Novak, or Eck.   See Athletic article linked in original post.

[Fan in Chicago]

27 minutes ago, SaulGoodman said:

 

I don't think sample sizes of 4 or 5 tell you much. 

And you have decisive evidence with many more data points to prove that certain officials do not influence the outcome of Mahomes games with preferential flagging?

[bills6969]

He’s also very good at flopping and manipulating refs 

[Freddie's Dead]

Duh.

[SaulGoodman]

18 minutes ago, Fan in Chicago said:

And you have decisive evidence with many more data points to prove that certain officials do not influence the outcome of Mahomes games with preferential flagging?

 

I don't think anybody is going to be able to prove anything either way. 

 

If his record with one official was 50-0, and 10-40 with another, that would be an indicator that something's fishy. But 4-0? For all we know that's 4 games vs bad teams.