Can You Continue to Move Forward if Your Defense Relies on Turnovers to Succeed?

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Let's not forget that the Ravens moved the ball up and down the field at will, and with the exception of the nice punch out fumble on Andrews, most of their errors were self inflicted.  Aside from the turnovers and kneel down at the end of the half. The Bills never forced a punt...the Ravens scored on every other drive. In the second half, the pass rush was non existent. Nearly 500 yards of total offense.

  Going forward, (I know we've been saying this all season) if the Bills continue to rely on turnovers and the other team plays a clean game this time, they may be setting themselves up for failure.

KC probably isn't the offensive juggernaut they have been in past seasons, but if the Bills were to face the Eagles in the SB, they have an RB that is on a tear this year, and an O line that's probably bigger and better than the one they just faced.

  

 

Several thoughts here, from someone that's researched this extensively.  Your concern is valid, but at the same time, listening to Bernard after the game, he said that the coaches focused on forcing TOs all week.  It's something that they've done all year per the pressers and the like.  So from that perspective, if it's a "taught" thing, it's good.  

 

There are only five games this season in which we were equal in TOs, none in which we were negative.  We were 3-2 in those games, which were Cardinals (1-1), Fins (1-1), and Broncos (0-0), the Wins, and the Losses, Baltimore (1-1) and Rams (0-0).  While discounting the throwaway Pats game, the meaningless Loss, two of our three losses were games in which we were even in TOs.   The other loss was to Houston where we were +2 in TO margin.  

 

Of the seven playoff teams we've played, including playoffs, in the four games in which we had a positive TO margin, we were 3-1 with our only loss having been to the aforementioned Texans.  We all know the reasons why there.  

 

In the three games against playoff teams in which we were even in TO margin, we were 1-2;  Losses to the Ravens and Rams, and a win over Denver in the WC Round.  

 

In four of those seven games were were significantly outplayed in Total Yardage among other metrics.  Yesterday for example, we were outplayed.  We allowed 416 Total Yards while logging only 273 ourselves; with Jackson nearly doubling Allen's passing yardage with 2 passing TDs to Allen's 0 and while posting rating of nearly 30 points better;  and with the Ravens still outrushing us.  Discounting the meaningless season ender v. the Pats, it was our third worst total yards performance on the season, worst passing performance, and our rushing performance was about average for us.  You're not going to win many more games if that's all we do offensively without generating TOs, to your point.  

 

However, next up is KC which is a shell of the team that won two straight Super Bowls.  They have no RB worthy of note, their leading receiver is a 35-year past-prime TE that topped out at 823 Yards and 3 TDs on a meager 8.5 YPR.  Put Milano on him and that essentially takes care of that.  After that their leading WR is a role-playing rookie that's averaged 6 targets and 3-1/2 catches per game for 638 yards and 6 TDs on also a relatively meager 10.8 YPR considering that he's a flyer.  Then there's Hopkins who's averaged 3 catches for 22 yards over the past five games.  We've complained about our WRs, but our crew is All-star compared to theirs.  

 

The big question is whether we continue to approach games conservatively as we did yesterday, Complimentary Football as defined by our team, or is Allen unleashed.  Clearly the weather favored the more conservative approach yesterday.  It's a fair bet that we approach that game differently.  

 

With Rapp and TJ's statuses unknown, Mahomes should be able to post a good game regardless of his less than notable WR corps, particularly since we can't count on our pass rush against KC's excellent OL.  Having said that, we hung 30 points on KC the first go-round and the Chiefs have only scored 30 against any playoff team that they've played once, and they've averaged 27 PPG against those playoff teams not including that last game vs. Denver.  

 

At the end of the day, those TOs and their "buy a ticket" theme has been coached, with rousing success it should be added.  Whatever works, and it's worked generally speaking although not quite as well vs. playoff teams.  

 

We should win this game and I'll step out and suggest a double-digit win.  But if we come out and play conservatively and limit the strength of this team in this era, then it may not be the best approach to start the game, particularly if Mahomes can take advantage of TJ and Rapp injuries and put up some points early.  

 

Assuming that we win, the Super Bowl opponent should be a more difficult matchup.  

 

So, LOL, the short answer to your concern is that it's valid, but to date it hasn't been as much of an issue as it could have been.  They're also obviously going to continue to focus on generating takeaways and limiting our own giveaways.  

 

GO BILLS!!!  

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

11 minutes ago, T.E. said:

You've got to remember that 80% of the posters here are gigantic homers who will defend the coaching staff regardless of what happens. The fact that they completely turtled in the second half, took the ball out of Allen's hands, blew a chance to put the game away, then allowed YET ANOTHER long drive at the end of a playoff game is completely lost on them because the Bills happened to luck out and win.

 

You're right; it's probably not sustainable the deeper you get in the postseason.

I think much like there’s homers that will defend anything there’s anti homers that will attack anything and sometimes a decent topic that’s somewhere in the middle and should lead to a good discussion like this one gets posted that one of the sides think is a classic overly negative/positive post 🤣

I can see the other side of this one but it gets harder and harder to keep saying turnovers are luck every single week for me.  To me those two things are related and the only reason we got conservative was because of the turnovers.  If you take the turnovers away you completely change the game for both teams 

 

yea maybe we have a game where we don’t force any turnovers and lose, but it’s just as likely we have a game we’re firmly in control of that we turn it over ourselves going for the throat and the other team steals a win imo 

 

It probably gets a little grating for the optimistic side that when we win a close one it’s always ‘we could’ve lost’ but if we lose a close one it’s not ‘we could’ve won if we made another play’ it’s ’we suck’ lol 

[pennstate10]

This is a good question.  In general, I think that takeaways are part skill, part coaching, and a good part luck.  You cant control that aspect, so no matter how well you're coached, your takeaways may regress to the mean.  So I dont think a defense can live off takeaways forever.  Those of you who remember the superbowl years remember that was also a bend but dont break defense, that lived off turnovers, until they didnt.

 

Offense is a little difference; I think offenese has more control over giveaways than defense has over takeaways.  How you coach your RB/TE/WR (fun trivia question, how many giveaways do these three position groups have this season?  Zero.  Zilch. Nil.  Thats not just luck), as well as play calls influence giveaways greatly.

 

In most years, I'd say a defense that plays bend dont break and relies on turnovers wont win a championhsip.

 

But this year we have the cheat code.  Josh allen allows Bills to win both high scoring and low scoring games.  Allen/Brady can pretty much turn the offense on at will.  Of course, this comes with a risk of more turnovers, so Bills prefer a conservative offense.

 

Makes sense.

 

Go Bills!

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I think much like there’s homers that will defend anything there’s anti homers that will attack anything and sometimes a decent topic that’s somewhere in the middle and should lead to a good discussion like this one gets posted that one of the sides think is a classic overly negative/positive post 🤣

I can see the other side of this one but it gets harder and harder to keep saying turnovers are luck every single week for me.  To me those two things are related and the only reason we got conservative was because of the turnovers.  If you take the turnovers away you completely change the game for both teams 

 

yea maybe we have a game where we don’t force any turnovers and lose, but it’s just as likely we have a game we’re firmly in control of that we turn it over ourselves going for the throat and the other team steals a win imo 

 

It probably gets a little grating for the optimistic side that when we win a close one it’s always ‘we could’ve lost’ but if we lose a close one it’s not ‘we could’ve won if we made another play’ it’s ’we suck’ lol 

The negative Nancie's like me exist purely off the homers. McD has the Bills in the top 10 in turnovers forced basically every year he has been here. He clearly makes it a focus. On offense, Josh has been really good protecting the ball. So you would expect us to maintain an advantage here. You hope it doesn't fizzle out with the competition increasing, which is possible, but nobody really knows. You would also like the defense to not rank 28th in the NFL in EPA when you don't include turnovers but this team just isn't perfect. We have this thing two games away at this point. We will not be perfect this year, hopefully we can get thru these next two + in the battle and come away with the trophy. Then next year focus on just being a better unit as a whole. 

[Toyo321]

To be honest, we are getting game changing break's with these turnovers, something that has usually happened in favor of our opposition in past playoff years. Buffalo has always been the team making the mistakes and this has not happened this year.   This is a welcome change for Buffalo, we did not self destruct in a game like this.  I am truly amazed that this team is where it is right now.  We all said it in the preseason that we were very weak in the secondary.  Our safeties are terrible and our CB's are not anywhere near the level of the teams D like the Raven's, KC or the Eagle's for that matter.  We are doing way more with less talent on this team than I thought was possible.  Is this the year that Allen gets over the playoff loss streak to Mahomes, finally getting this monkey off his back, we will see.   We need the turnovers to offset the lack of raw talent that this team has to field against its competition every week.  Next week will be a test.  Especially for McD.  Can he finally exercise his demon's from his past playoff losses to KC.  We will see.  I will take any turn over when it helps us win the game.  I will take any turnover if it helps put Mahomes on a golf course while the Superbowl is being played.

Edited 6 hours ago by Toyo321

[GASabresIUFan]

2 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

I agree that last year, Lamar was not the MVP, however, he has more than earned it this year.

 

Prove me wrong.

Has he? What would his stat line be without Henry?   In a key playoff game he committed two turnovers.  That doesn’t spell MVP to me.  

Edited 6 hours ago by GASabresIUFan

[BigAl2526]

People asked how KC could keep winning this season, but they did.  Baltimore is a tough physical team.  Overall, they are probably more athletic than the Bills.  I don't think there is any embarrassment at the fact Buffalo needed to force turnovers to win the game.  Buffalo hasn't needed turnovers to that degree in every game.  I think they matchup better versus the Chiefs than they did to the Ravens.  I'd love to have half a dozen KC turnovers in the game next weekend, but I don't know that they would be essential.

[BillsShredder83]

3 hours ago, Sweats said:

Here's the thing, KC rarely turns the ball over, so teams need to play clean and sharp against them........basically good old fashioned role up your sleeves and go to work for 60 minutes and on every play.

 

If you can't win an honest game without having to rely on turnovers, i seriously have no idea how long that will carry you.

It's carried us this far, however, so KC will be a true test.

 

----I feel a big one thats been understandably forgotten (I didnt know until today). Buffalo had 1 "penalty" (DDawk's ***** Trap; BS).  That was huge and im sure has been an extra component of stress during this last week, and entire year.  This would greatly help us next week!!!

[SinceThe70s]

2 hours ago, ddaryl said:

its a bout the Bills who are a team who have been in the conversation for 5+ years. We get destroyed by teams like the Ravens and we ONLY WON THE GAME because we played mistake free, otherwise the Ravens win the game while making mistakes. We could not afford to make any !

We do not match up well with strong running teams with solid QB play for a playoff team aspiring to be a SB winner.

take it however you want it... 

 

We won the game in large part because we played mistake free. That's a common component to winning in the NFL and not something to be ashamed of. As to your stipulation that we could not afford to make any mistakes - that was true in large part due to the fact that we only put up 6 points in the second half. Raise your hand if you thought 6 more points would be enough to win at half time. Personally I thought we needed 7 on the first drive of the 3rd quarter.

 

Take the w's any way you can get them, but mistake free football is a strong start.

[PBF81]

30 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

People asked how KC could keep winning this season, but they did.  Baltimore is a tough physical team.  Overall, they are probably more athletic than the Bills.  I don't think there is any embarrassment at the fact Buffalo needed to force turnovers to win the game.  Buffalo hasn't needed turnovers to that degree in every game.  I think they matchup better versus the Chiefs than they did to the Ravens.  I'd love to have half a dozen KC turnovers in the game next weekend, but I don't know that they would be essential.

 

Agree on the matchup vs. the Chiefs. 

 

The Chiefs are also overrated.  They've played only a few top offenses this season,  Cincy, Baltimore, Tampa, and us.  That's why their D is ranked so highly.  

 

They're getting precious little support from their running game, they rank 22nd in YPG and 28th in YPA offensively.  Long gone are the days of Hill & Kelce in his prime.  Cook/Davis/Johnson should be able to post a good day.  Allen shouldn't need to be called upon to have to do it all in this one.  

 

But for the love of football, if we win the toss, take the damn ball this time.  The last thing we need is for the Chiefs to put up 7 first.  

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by PBF81

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, Sweats said:

Here's the thing, KC rarely turns the ball over, so teams need to play clean and sharp against them........basically good old fashioned role up your sleeves and go to work for 60 minutes and on every play.

 

If you can't win an honest game without having to rely on turnovers, i seriously have no idea how long that will carry you.

It's carried us this far, however, so KC will be a true test.

and so do the Ravens...The Bills and Ravens were #1 and #2 in the NFL with least number of turnovers and yet the Bills managed to have 3 against them.

 

As McDermott mentioned in the post game locker room speech - they have to execute on all three phases...and they did just that yesterday night....

[Aussie Joe]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 

 The key is to getting off the 3rd down.  We really didn’t do that against the Ravens.  We also didn’t have our greatest game offensively, but still managed to win.

 

The defense is good enough, just needs to make more plays on 3rd down.

This has been the primary issue all year for the D  …

 

Even yesterday the Ravens were 7 out of 10 on third down I believe 

[HamptonBillsfan]

When your strength is creating TOs and you understand turnovers decide these games, naturally the expectation is to win the turnover battle. This defense held Henry to 86 yards and 16 carries and Lamar to 6 carries. That’s what the Ravens do best. They were victimized by an MVP QB who runs around to allow a receiver to come open and they did that to all their opponents this season. The incredible defense in the first half won us the game.

 

[BillytheKid]

This is an easy question. 
 

KC doesn’t have anywhere close to as good of offense as Baltimore whether they turn the ball over or not. Buffalo should still win that game. 
 

Same goes for Philly. Their offense isn’t even close to Baltimores. 
 

Jalen isn’t on Lamar’s level or even close to it. The Bills shut down Henry in the first half, they can easily and will easily shut down Barkley if they end up getting to play them. 

[longtimebillsfan]

4 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Let's not forget that the Ravens moved the ball up and down the field at will, and with the exception of the nice punch out fumble on Andrews, most of their errors were self inflicted.  Aside from the turnovers and kneel down at the end of the half. The Bills never forced a punt...the Ravens scored on every other drive. In the second half, the pass rush was non existent. Nearly 500 yards of total offense.

  Going forward, (I know we've been saying this all season) if the Bills continue to rely on turnovers and the other team plays a clean game this time, they may be setting themselves up for failure.

KC probably isn't the offensive juggernaut they have been in past seasons, but if the Bills were to face the Eagles in the SB, they have an RB that is on a tear this year, and an O line that's probably bigger and better than the one they just faced.

  

If the Bills can control the ball and limit KC's offensive opportunities, we won't  need turnovers.

 

But to answer your question:  so far, yes.

Edited 4 hours ago by longtimebillsfan

[djp14150]

4 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

Let's not forget that the Ravens moved the ball up and down the field at will, and with the exception of the nice punch out fumble on Andrews, most of their errors were self inflicted.  Aside from the turnovers and kneel down at the end of the half. The Bills never forced a punt...the Ravens scored on every other drive. In the second half, the pass rush was non existent. Nearly 500 yards of total offense.

  Going forward, (I know we've been saying this all season) if the Bills continue to rely on turnovers and the other team plays a clean game this time, they may be setting themselves up for failure.

KC probably isn't the offensive juggernaut they have been in past seasons, but if the Bills were to face the Eagles in the SB, they have an RB that is on a tear this year, and an O line that's probably bigger and better than the one they just faced.

  

How exactly are turnovers different than punts?

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

Several thoughts here, from someone that's researched this extensively.  Your concern is valid, but at the same time, listening to Bernard after the game, he said that the coaches focused on forcing TOs all week.  It's something that they've done all year per the pressers and the like.  So from that perspective, if it's a "taught" thing, it's good.  

 

There are only five games this season in which we were equal in TOs, none in which we were negative.  We were 3-2 in those games, which were Cardinals (1-1), Fins (1-1), and Broncos (0-0), the Wins, and the Losses, Baltimore (1-1) and Rams (0-0).  While discounting the throwaway Pats game, the meaningless Loss, two of our three losses were games in which we were even in TOs.   The other loss was to Houston where we were +2 in TO margin.  

 

Of the seven playoff teams we've played, including playoffs, in the four games in which we had a positive TO margin, we were 3-1 with our only loss having been to the aforementioned Texans.  We all know the reasons why there.  

 

In the three games against playoff teams in which we were even in TO margin, we were 1-2;  Losses to the Ravens and Rams, and a win over Denver in the WC Round.  

 

In four of those seven games were were significantly outplayed in Total Yardage among other metrics.  Yesterday for example, we were outplayed.  We allowed 416 Total Yards while logging only 273 ourselves; with Jackson nearly doubling Allen's passing yardage with 2 passing TDs to Allen's 0 and while posting rating of nearly 30 points better;  and with the Ravens still outrushing us.  Discounting the meaningless season ender v. the Pats, it was our third worst total yards performance on the season, worst passing performance, and our rushing performance was about average for us.  You're not going to win many more games if that's all we do offensively without generating TOs, to your point.  

 

However, next up is KC which is a shell of the team that won two straight Super Bowls.  They have no RB worthy of note, their leading receiver is a 35-year past-prime TE that topped out at 823 Yards and 3 TDs on a meager 8.5 YPR.  Put Milano on him and that essentially takes care of that.  After that their leading WR is a role-playing rookie that's averaged 6 targets and 3-1/2 catches per game for 638 yards and 6 TDs on also a relatively meager 10.8 YPR considering that he's a flyer.  Then there's Hopkins who's averaged 3 catches for 22 yards over the past five games.  We've complained about our WRs, but our crew is All-star compared to theirs.  

 

The big question is whether we continue to approach games conservatively as we did yesterday, Complimentary Football as defined by our team, or is Allen unleashed.  Clearly the weather favored the more conservative approach yesterday.  It's a fair bet that we approach that game differently.  

 

With Rapp and TJ's statuses unknown, Mahomes should be able to post a good game regardless of his less than notable WR corps, particularly since we can't count on our pass rush against KC's excellent OL.  Having said that, we hung 30 points on KC the first go-round and the Chiefs have only scored 30 against any playoff team that they've played once, and they've averaged 27 PPG against those playoff teams not including that last game vs. Denver.  

 

At the end of the day, those TOs and their "buy a ticket" theme has been coached, with rousing success it should be added.  Whatever works, and it's worked generally speaking although not quite as well vs. playoff teams.  

 

We should win this game and I'll step out and suggest a double-digit win.  But if we come out and play conservatively and limit the strength of this team in this era, then it may not be the best approach to start the game, particularly if Mahomes can take advantage of TJ and Rapp injuries and put up some points early.  

 

Assuming that we win, the Super Bowl opponent should be a more difficult matchup.  

 

So, LOL, the short answer to your concern is that it's valid, but to date it hasn't been as much of an issue as it could have been.  They're also obviously going to continue to focus on generating takeaways and limiting our own giveaways.  

 

GO BILLS!!!  

 

 

There you go 👍🏻 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

The negative Nancie's like me exist purely off the homers. McD has the Bills in the top 10 in turnovers forced basically every year he has been here. He clearly makes it a focus. On offense, Josh has been really good protecting the ball. So you would expect us to maintain an advantage here. You hope it doesn't fizzle out with the competition increasing, which is possible, but nobody really knows. You would also like the defense to not rank 28th in the NFL in EPA when you don't include turnovers but this team just isn't perfect. We have this thing two games away at this point. We will not be perfect this year, hopefully we can get thru these next two + in the battle and come away with the trophy. Then next year focus on just being a better unit as a whole. 

The Pats contended for lots of SB’s with a poorly ranked overall defense with a huge TO advantage FWIW

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

The Pats contended for lots of SB’s with a poorly ranked overall defense with a huge TO advantage FWIW

They did, that is the best example of sustaining it 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Not sure where to post this but Cam Lewis punched the ball out on the big play right before the 2 minute but the WR fell right on the ball. No one really talked about it.
 

Bills are good at punching the ball out.