Can You Continue to Move Forward if Your Defense Relies on Turnovers to Succeed?

[stevestojan]

Seems that way. 

[Gen2]

6 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

We do not match up well with teams with powerful running games and capable QBs.



 

 

Which teams do???

Name three.

[ddaryl]

1 minute ago, Gen2 said:

 

Which teams do???

Name three.

its a bout the Bills who are a team who have been in the conversation for 5+ years. We get destroyed by teams like the Ravens and we ONLY WON THE GAME because we played mistake free, otherwise the Ravens win the game while making mistakes. We could not afford to make any !

We do not match up well with strong running teams with solid QB play for a playoff team aspiring to be a SB winner.

take it however you want it... 

[GASabresIUFan]

This was always going to be the worst matchup. Henry is a monster and Lamar a top (but not MVP) QB.  
 

We matchup much better against KC, Philly and Wash.  All these teams have balance, but can be made one dimensional.   The key is to getting off the 3rd down.  We really didn’t do that against the Ravens.  We also didn’t have our greatest game offensively, but still managed to win.

 

The defense is good enough, just needs to make more plays on 3rd down.

[oldmanfan]

I was pleasantly surprised to see 3 LBs on the field the first half but seems like we got away from that the second half.  Would love to know why.

[Mikie2times]

The Carolina Panthers when McD led that defense to a Super Bowl were +20 on the year. 

 

Just as much as I question McD's defense, one thing he does really well is emphasize takeaways. He might just be the best in the NFL at it.  We have ranked top 10 basically every year he has been here in takeaways. Partner that with an offense that doesn't throw INT's (fumbles have a bit more variance). It stands to reason we will be very good in turnover margin moving forward.  But in a game to game vs the very best can we still count on them? Maybe, maybe not. I would have said no to the Ravens game coming down to it but we ended up +3.  We will need them. We have basically leveraged our inability to be successful traditionally with them. Without them this is one of the bottom 5 defenses in the NFL. 

[Logic]

When you get to the playoffs, most offenses you face are going to be very good.

When you're going against Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes and Joe Burrow, opposing offenses are GOING to move the ball against you.

Limit points and get some takeaways, and you give a Josh Allen led offense a great chance to win.

Do turnovers tend to regress to the mean? Yes. Is solely relying on turnovers a sustainable defensive model? No.

Try to limit the opponents to 3s instead of 7s and take the ball away when you can. That's it.

[MJS]

They just have to keep it up for two more games.

[Sweats]

23 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

This was always going to be the worst matchup. Henry is a monster and Lamar a top (but not MVP) QB.  
 

We matchup much better against KC, Philly and Wash.  All these teams have balance, but can be made one dimensional.   The key is to getting off the 3rd down.  We really didn’t do that against the Ravens.  We also didn’t have our greatest game offensively, but still managed to win.

 

The defense is good enough, just needs to make more plays on 3rd down.

 

 

 

I agree that last year, Lamar was not the MVP, however, he has more than earned it this year.

 

Prove me wrong.

[Coach Tuesday]

The defense relies on pressure not turnovers.  The Lamar INT and fumble were both the result of pressure.  Yes you can rely on that.  Learn the game of football before showing up with garbage takes.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

55 minutes ago, colin said:

the honest answer is no.  the flip side to that is if you don't protect the ball, you will lose to lesser teams.

 

the ravens are the 6th best nfl team of all time based on DVOA.  they are also huge fast and physical, which is an advantage vs everyone and in any scheme, so they aren't as game script dependent as other all time nfl teams by DVOA.  they lost because of turnovers way way more than we won based on anything we did.  

 

if we came out and scored 10 points on our two first 3rd quarter drives instead of a 3 and out and a 4 and out, then i'd argue we clearly played better and took advantage of mistakes and hammered the nails in when we needed to, but that didn't happen.  we really just made fewer mistakes and held on to win.

Lamar looked absolutely lost in that first half which led directly to one of the turnovers and arguably both.  Henry was held completely in check which seemed to cause a lot of panic on the Baltimore side.  To not credit the bills players/coaches and make it sound like luck is completely ridiculous. 
 

Philly got outgained by a ton and beat Baltimore also, it’s not like the bills were the only team to win that style of game against them 

Edited 11 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[poblano]

3 of 4 weekend's games were decided in that way, the other  was the KC's.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

This was always going to be the worst matchup. Henry is a monster and Lamar a top (but not MVP) QB.  
 

We matchup much better against KC, Philly and Wash.  All these teams have balance, but can be made one dimensional.   The key is to getting off the 3rd down.  We really didn’t do that against the Ravens.  We also didn’t have our greatest game offensively, but still managed to win.

 

The defense is good enough, just needs to make more plays on 3rd down.

 

I'd say Philly is more in the mold of teams we do not match well against. They are my biggest worry of all the teams left in the playoffs.

[LABILLBACKER]

54 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

What choice do we have? 

No, we don't have a choice.  The only positive defensive stat we own this year is #1 in takeaways. Yes our defense has flaws and bends like the LA Wind.  But if turnovers are the strength,  then ride it all the way to a championship.  Be ball hawks. Punch the ball out. 

[Wraith]

17 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

I agree that last year, Lamar was not the MVP, however, he has more than earned it this year.

 

Prove me wrong.

He's not even the MVP on his own team. The 3rd quarter, where the Ravens offense looked unstoppable, was all Henry. 

[zow2]

1 hour ago, Sweats said:

Here's the thing, KC rarely turns the ball over, so teams need to play clean and sharp against them........basically good old fashioned role up your sleeves and go to work for 60 minutes and on every play.

 

If you can't win an honest game without having to rely on turnovers, i seriously have no idea how long that will carry you.

It's carried us this far, however, so KC will be a true test.

 

Yep, the Bills are playing Chiefs style football lately.  So now the student has to take down the master.  Both teams are playing "clean" football.  Don't turn it over, run the ball even when it's getting overly conservative, convert 3rd downs,  don't take sacks, don't make risky throws into double coverage, make your FG's. 

[Billsfanatic8989]

No.

 

The Ravens had three turnovers and still put up 25 points. Their turnovers were more self-inflicted than anything the Bills did. The fact they could have won despite this is scary.

 

I don't have faith in McD's defense to stop an offense that doesn't turn it over. Who aren't sloppy. Who have historically shredded his D in the postseason. 

 

The only way we are winning this is by shredding their D. Which isn't easy. It will take a 40-37 type win.

 

Edit: I just feel like KC has more ways to win than us.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 11 hours ago by Billsfanatic8989

[colin]

17 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Lamar looked absolutely lost in that first half which led directly to one of the turnovers and arguably both.  Henry was held completely in check which seemed to cause a lot of panic on the Baltimore side.  To not credit the bills players/coaches and make it sound like luck is completely ridiculous. 
 

Philly got outgained by a ton and beat Baltimore also, it’s not like the bills were the only team to win that style of game against them 

 

i credit the bills for the plays they made, but we forced zero punts and got absolutely trucked on the ravens late possessions.  in spite of bad conservative play calling way too early (3rd quarter), the bills won because of turnovers.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I'd say Philly is more in the mold of teams we do not match well against. They are my biggest worry of all the teams left in the playoffs.

They’re kind of Baltimore lite…won’t be an easy game were it to happen but I’d feel a little better than the Baltimore game.  Saquon adds a lot in the passing game so there’s a new wrinkle to worry about but Lamar is much better than hurts imo 

[Billsfanatic8989]

14 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I'd say Philly is more in the mold of teams we do not match well against. They are my biggest worry of all the teams left in the playoffs.

Need to go all out to stop Barkley and force Hurts to be MVP of the game. 

 

Our receivers against their back end is an advantage for them too. We don't have an AJ brown out there who can exploit great D's. 

 

Our RB's would need to be the X factor.

 

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, colin said:

 

i credit the bills for the plays they made, but we forced zero punts and got absolutely trucked on the ravens late possessions.  in spite of bad conservative play calling way too early (3rd quarter), the bills won because of turnovers.  

Said turnovers were a dropped snap and not securing the ball. I feel like scheme wise, the Bills did nothing to fool them.