Dalton Kincaid- why so underwhelming this season?

[Pete]

1 minute ago, dma0034 said:

Bills need like a combo of Daboll's Passing Attack and Brady's Rushing Attack.

Bills will need a WR, Safety and DE as their top 3 priorities in the off season (WR needs to be able to go deep)

DT

[Bermuda Triangle]

Just now, Pete said:

DT

Definitely think that DT is a big need, but IMO, so are WR with deep speed, S, DE and CB.

[Pete]

Just now, Bermuda Triangle said:

Definitely think that DT is a big need, but IMO, so are WR with deep speed, S, DE and CB.

DT and WR are the most pressing needs IMO. CB-S-DE too.  Bills are stacked everywhere else

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 minutes ago, Pete said:

you are defeating your argument.  Knox is a complete TE.  Knox is clutch in the playoffs (6 games Knox caught the first TD.  Knox has made big plays this season.  Dalton cannot block.  Alll he has to worry about is catching passes.  Knox has a higher catch rate, less drops, and more big plays than Dalton.

This is probably anecdotal but Knox to me looks like he gets a lot less defensive attention than Kincaid does in the passing game so Idk that thats a clean comparison.  Opposing defenses respect Kincaid a heck of a lot more than this board does imo.  
 

If other guys are more likely to get freed up with Kincaid out there than Knox, that doesn’t show up in Kincaids stats 

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, Pete said:

No he wasnt.  LaPorta had 86 catches, 889 yards, 10 TDs.  Dalton is nowhere near those numbers.

Chiefs have the worst numbers against opposing TEs.  Dalton, and the RBs should feast.  I have faith in the RBs.  Dalton, Im rooting for you.  Show me

 

LaPorta's college max was 670 yards & 3 TDs, in his junior season.  Those decreased to 657/1 in his senior season.  So not sure where you're getting those numbers.  Kincaid had 890 yards and 8 TDs as a senior.  

 

According to just about every (never say never/all) major draft profile, Kincaid was the better overall receiver as a TE.  I don't recall a single major site that had LaPorta listed as likely to go higher than Kincaid.  They also didn't draft Kincaid to block, they drafted him all but purely for his receiving abilities.  

 

That kid Mayer from Notre Dame was rated higher than LaPorta in some draft profile rankings as well.  

 

Injuries have a little to do with it, but it's clearly our system that limits all receivers, by design, because that's what they told us not in those words.  Seemingly some of it has to do with McD's insistence on running more, which has generally worked well against crap teams, generally not so well against the better teams with an exception or two.  A good guess as to why is so that they don't have to shell out big bucks for a top-name WR.  

 

 

[Nephilim17]

What's additionally troubling is that Knox is a $14,568,000 cap hit in 2025 with only ($2,404,000) in savings if we cut him ($16,972,000 dead money).

So we have two TEs whom we've invested a lot of draft capital and money into and neither is dominant. Both flash and have very good moments but neither has been consistently top tier.

I hope Kincaid steps up in year 3. Like most people, I thought he would turn into something special by the end of this year and he hasn't. 

The good news is overall our offense had out-performed expectations. So it's unusual that our two tight ends have underperformed. Maybe teams are not worried about our boundary guys and keying in more on the middle and short passes and that's why our TEs are not doing great. 
 

[Pete]

12 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

LaPorta's college max was 670 yards & 3 TDs, in his junior season.  Those decreased to 657/1 in his senior season.  So not sure where you're getting those numbers.  Kincaid had 890 yards and 8 TDs as a senior.  

 

According to just about every (never say never/all) major draft profile, Kincaid was the better overall receiver as a TE.  I don't recall a single major site that had LaPorta listed as likely to go higher than Kincaid.  They also didn't draft Kincaid to block, they drafted him all but purely for his receiving abilities.  

 

That kid Mayer from Notre Dame was rated higher than LaPorta in some draft profile rankings as well.  

 

Injuries have a little to do with it, but it's clearly our system that limits all receivers, by design, because that's what they told us not in those words.  Seemingly some of it has to do with McD's insistence on running more, which has generally worked well against crap teams, generally not so well against the better teams with an exception or two.  A good guess as to why is so that they don't have to shell out big bucks for a top-name WR.  

 

 

NFL numbers.  Those are LaPortas rookie numbers on Lions.  Laporte made sensational one handed TD catch in loss against Washington. 

12 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

This is probably anecdotal but Knox to me looks like he gets a lot less defensive attention than Kincaid does in the passing game so Idk that thats a clean comparison.  Opposing defenses respect Kincaid a heck of a lot more than this board does imo.  
 

If other guys are more likely to get freed up with Kincaid out there than Knox, that doesn’t show up in Kincaids stats 

This is what I’m hoping.  I’d like to hear someone that studies every All22 videos, who can confirm that Dalton is getting double coverage constantly.  That was happening last year.  This year it seems every TE and WR not named Shakir, cannot separate 

 

23 hours ago, Special K said:

Edited Saturday at 05:14 PM by Pete

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

What's additionally troubling is that Knox is a $14,568,000 cap hit in 2025 with only ($2,404,000) in savings if we cut him ($16,972,000 dead money).

So we have two TEs whom we've invested a lot of draft capital and money into and neither is dominant. Both flash and have very good moments but neither has been consistently top tier.

I hope Kincaid steps up in year 3. Like most people, I thought he would turn into something special by the end of this year and he hasn't. 

The good news is overall our offense had out-performed expectations. So it's unusual that our two tight ends have underperformed. Maybe teams are not worried about our boundary guys and keying in more on the middle and short passes and that's why our TEs are not doing great. 
 

This year ain’t over 😁 TEs and RBs have a pretty darn good matchup in the passing game this week 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

On 1/20/2025 at 9:06 AM, Pete said:

Where are the mismatches?  Where are the big plays?  Why are you not clicking with Josh?  Is Brady to blame?  Opposing TEs continually find soft spots in our coverage, and catch large chunk plays, game after game.  Why can't Kincaid?

 

9 different Bills have had most receiving yards in a game.  Kincaid has 0.

 

We know Kincaid has mitts, and he looks smooth sometimes.  Hes got size, and some speed.  Knox is a much more complete TE, yet Kincaid still struggles

 

Will Kincaid make any big plays against KC?

 

I like Dalton, and I am rooting for him.  But Im perplexed why he is so underwhelming.

 

Thoughts?

 

GO BILLS!

 

definitely disappointing, his hands have been average so far. Maybe teams figured him out and he hasn't adjusted. Whatever it is he needs to put in more work to become elite.

 

 

[Maine-iac]

Just my opinion but I think size matters.  Kincaid is going to be the Ed Oliver of TE's.  Being 6'4" and 240 vs 6'5" or 6'6" and 250 or 260 pound (Kelce or Gronk) is going to make a difference in games that get physical.  Kincaid is a great TE but there will be times Knox will be better to have on the field because he's more physical.

[Pete]

I think Dalton has lost some trust with Josh.  Shakir, Ty, Knox, Hollins have Josh's trust now.

Edited Saturday at 06:42 PM by Pete

[EmotionallyUnstable]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

What's additionally troubling is that Knox is a $14,568,000 cap hit in 2025 with only ($2,404,000) in savings if we cut him ($16,972,000 dead money).

So we have two TEs whom we've invested a lot of draft capital and money into and neither is dominant. Both flash and have very good moments but neither has been consistently top tier.

I hope Kincaid steps up in year 3. Like most people, I thought he would turn into something special by the end of this year and he hasn't. 

The good news is overall our offense had out-performed expectations. So it's unusual that our two tight ends have underperformed. Maybe teams are not worried about our boundary guys and keying in more on the middle and short passes and that's why our TEs are not doing great. 
 

This.

 

Paired with scheme and limited playing time, it was always and continues to be a head scratcher. It is what makes me weary of drafting another WR early in 2025, as we already know Coleman, Shakir, Samuel, Knox and Kincaid are all under contract. Any more cooks in that kitchen are likely to see Amari cooper level snaps at 25-35% of share.

 

(plus I am guessing we will bring Hollins back in 2025).

 

If Kincaid were a 3rd or 4th round investment, this wouldn’t even be a debate. However the fact that we already had a highly paid player and invested a high asset into another one was capping the impact of those players from the start. 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

On 1/21/2025 at 9:09 PM, T.E. said:

He broke the Bills single-season record for catches by a TE in his rookie season. They just aren't doing a good job scheming him open. Same with Cooper, same with Coleman, same with Samuels.

Well, the Bills history at the TE position isn’t exactly a who’s who list, if we’re being honest. Not a high bar. 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

3 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

No, he's not. He's much more skilled/ talented than those two. 

 

It's not close. 

 

Don't confuse volume numbers with who's better. 

 

Kincaid's emergence so quickly as a rookie is partly why the organization felt comfortable moving on from diggs. 

 

 

 

 

I can guarantee you that McDuffie will have some of his reps on Kincaid or KC will double him on many passing downs. 

Let’s call the raiders and offer Kincaid for Bowers and a 3rd … I mean, Kincaid is so much more talented, right?

[Pete]

59 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Well, the Bills history at the TE position isn’t exactly a who’s who list, if we’re being honest. Not a high bar. 

Dalton is no Butch Rolle 

[C.Biscuit97]

Gotta say I was so high on him and it’s been disappointing thus far. Still young in his career but I wish I saw more wow plays. That said, a td or big catches tomorrow will make up for everything (not my season bet of him over 750 yards though 😔)

[JohnNord]

On 1/20/2025 at 9:06 AM, Pete said:

Where are the mismatches?  Where are the big plays?  Why are you not clicking with Josh?  Is Brady to blame?  Opposing TEs continually find soft spots in our coverage, and catch large chunk plays, game after game.  Why can't Kincaid?

 

9 different Bills have had most receiving yards in a game.  Kincaid has 0.

 

We know Kincaid has mitts, and he looks smooth sometimes.  Hes got size, and some speed.  Knox is a much more complete TE, yet Kincaid still struggles

 

Will Kincaid make any big plays against KC?

 

I like Dalton, and I am rooting for him.  But Im perplexed why he is so underwhelming.

 

Thoughts?

 

GO BILLS!

Year 3 is going to be huge for Kincaid.  I think it’s fair to say that he’s been inconsistent over his first two seasons.  
 

There were a few games last season where they’d feed him the ball to move the sticks.  Also a few other times when they’d feed could stretch the field with him working on a LB or safety.  
 

This season, he’s had injury issues but the he’s such a bad blocker that it limits his total snaps.  Also you’d think Buffalo would be smart to run 12 personnel to take advantage of Knox and Kincaid but it hasn’t really worked well.  

[Big Turk]

6 hours ago, Pete said:

What’s up with the 58% catch rate?  I recall nothing but Kincaid drops, in big spots, this playoff.  How come average TEs go buck wild against Buffalo?  They make it look easy.  Dalton makes it look difficult 

 

A lot of not great throws 

[McBean]

5 hours ago, Pete said:

DT and WR are the most pressing needs IMO. CB-S-DE too.  Bills are stacked everywhere else

I’m going to be honest fellas, I can’t even think about the offseason the night before AFC Championship game.

 

all that’s on my mind is beating the heck out of the Chiefs 

[Pete]

12 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

A lot of not great throws 

Shakir has the shortest arms in the NFL, and caught 27 straight targets.  So Josh is accurate for Shakir, but off target for 6'4 Kincaid?  I believe that Kincaid has run routes off, not going deep enough, not making a sharp enough cut.  I believe Josh places the ball where Kincaid is supposed to be, most often.  Dalton has 4 straight up drops this year.  IMO Dalton has lost Josh's trust.  That being said, KC is the worst at covering TEs.  Dalton should shine Sunday.  If he can't produce, my hope for Dalton dwindles