Dalton Kincaid- why so underwhelming this season?

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'll state the obvious - Allen has earned the benefit of the doubt. He has taken plenty of decent or better pass catchers over his career and made them productive and efficient. So when the occasional Gabe Davis comes along and every pass in his direction is an adventure I tend to lay the blame on the pass catcher, which is why I was completely unsurprised by Davis being a disappointment in Jacksonville. That isn't to say Allen is perfect and never to blame on any throw. But when you're talking about season-long percentages, you can't just excuse certain trends away as random variance. There is usually a reason behind the data. There is no intuitive reason why Kincaid should have a significantly lower catch % than Knox and his significantly higher ADOT. If you want to ascribe that to Allen just randomly being less accurate when throwing to Kincaid, that's your opinion. Mine is that Knox has done better than Kincaid at being exactly where Allen expects him to be. Maybe it's just chemistry. All I know is Kincaid's catch percentage needs to be better and that falls on him more than anybody.

I ascribe it to them not being on the same page and Kincaid running a lot of routes in which Allen has never been very accurate throwing.  I don’t know the numbers off hand and I’m not going to look them up because I’m having a blast with the boys-  but Marino and Nolan have stated the numbers. 

[ColoradoBills]

12 hours ago, Pete said:

Do you have an intelligent opinion (it’s Brady, an injury, scheme, Dalton, Josh, etc) or are you going to detract from Bills discussion with brilliance such as blah, blah, blah?

 

Now if you excuse us, we will return to discussing our beloved

 

Dude, lighten up.  

[VW82]

55 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I ascribe it to them not being on the same page and Kincaid running a lot of routes in which Allen has never been very accurate throwing.  I don’t know the numbers off hand and I’m not going to look them up because I’m having a blast with the boys-  but Marino and Nolan have stated the numbers. 

 

I'd love to see this followed up on by someone if they have them handy. 

 

Also, HappyDays is just flat wrong about the variance comment. In-season numbers can carry a tremendous amount of variance. Even just looking at last year vs. this year we see Dalton's catch% going from 80% to 58% despite having an entire extra off season to work out any issues re "not being where Allen expects him to be be." 

 

NBA players demonstrate tremendous variance in 3FG% as an example over small samples < 100 attempts, and they do not have to worry, usually, about being tackled. Yet, we think we shouldn't see such variance despite additional variables over relatively small sample sizes in NFL receptions. Doesn't make a lot of intuitive sense. 

 

And just to add to previous points, Knox went from Y/R of 8.5 last year to 14.1 this year (66% increase). Is that because their "chemistry" dramatically improved downfield finally in year 6? Knox is now finally exactly "where Allen expects him to be be." No - there are surely other things going on here.

 

Some of the inconsistency is clearly on Kincaid, but he's been way above average in the passing game this season. His issue is that he's not so great in the running game - our bread and butter - and so he's ineffective on a greater percentage of plays than he would've been in Dorsey/Daboll's system, and there have unfortunately been some misses (some on him, some on Josh) which have skewed the numbers and would likely correct pretty dramatically over larger samples. /rant  

Edited 21 hours ago by VW82

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Also, HappyDays is just flat wrong about the variance comment. In-season numbers can carry a tremendous amount of variance. Even just looking at last year vs. this year we see Dalton's catch% going from 80% to 58% despite having an entire extra off season to work out any issues re "not being where Allen expects him to be be." 

 

Kincaid's ADOT went from 6.0 last year to 7.5 this year. AKA as soon as we tried getting him involved downfield more his catch % fell off a cliff. Just like Gabe Davis' efficiency fell off a cliff when we tried to make him more of a focus.

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

No Beane trade ups no Josh Allen

💯 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree. I still think Allen just drags the ball a little short. Even if Kincaid flattens it out at the 40 yard line rather than drifting that is still a below the waist ball. Could definitely have been thrown better, but agree the route was not what it should have been.

Yeah- both players failed to execute.  

[VW82]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Kincaid's ADOT went from 6.0 last year to 7.5 this year. AKA as soon as we tried getting him involved downfield more his catch % fell off a cliff. Just like Gabe Davis' efficiency fell off a cliff when we tried to make him more of a focus.

 

That is such a bad comparison. Their route running abilities are nothing alike. They don't even play the same position.  

 

Yes, Kincaid has been downfield more and him and Josh have missed more. A lot of that is Josh throwing hopes and prayers to him on failed plays. It's too sss. 

 

Edit: you want to criticize his run blocking? Be my guest. Kincaid still looks the part of a quality receiver and the fact we haven't been more successful with him in that role is a blame pie not an indictment of Kincaid specifically. 

Edited 21 hours ago by VW82

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Kincaid's ADOT went from 6.0 last year to 7.5 this year. AKA as soon as we tried getting him involved downfield more his catch % fell off a cliff. Just like Gabe Davis' efficiency fell off a cliff when we tried to make him more of a focus.

Ahhh Kincaid is really elite, his MVP and future HoF QB and his OC who has his pick of the litter when it comes to jobs around the NFL are the ones who are letting him down!

[HappyDays]

Just now, FireChans said:

Ahhh Kincaid is really elite, his MVP and future HoF QB and his OC who has his pick of the litter when it comes to jobs around the NFL are the ones who are letting him down!

 

I heard all the same stuff with Davis. He's secretly a superstar, Allen needs to throw him better passes, we don't get him involved enough. The guy goes to Jacksonville and is a complete dud. A lot of Bills fans don't watch the rest of the league so they have nothing to compare what they're watching to. Kincaid has been pretty much an average player this year. He's got to be a lot better to live up his draft value.

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I heard all the same stuff with Davis. He's secretly a superstar, Allen needs to throw him better passes, we don't get him involved enough. The guy goes to Jacksonville and is a complete dud. A lot of Bills fans don't watch the rest of the league so they have nothing to compare what they're watching to. Kincaid has been pretty much an average player this year. He's got to be a lot better to live up his draft value.

Allen, Daboll and Dorsey just really struggled to optimize Isaiah McKenzie. It’s not that he was a smurf JAG. He just needed a better coach and a better QB.

[FireChans]

13 hours ago, Dopey said:

Yeah, during the regular season, Detroit led the league in scoring, with that HOF TE they have. Where are they now?  Yep, kicking back and watching is today. 
Wondering who’ll be the first to complain about us trading back and letting the Chefs get Worthy. Pete?

Hey, we allowed to complain about Kincaid dropping the season ending pass yet?

[Bermuda Triangle]

Cull the dead weight.  
 

can’t catch

 

doesn’t want to block 

[YodaMan79]

No play Kincaid.  He's anti clutch.  Tell me what he does well?

 

Every one of you homers that says he's anything above average need to clean your rose colored glasses. 

 

50 year olds are making that catch in the backyard on Thanksgiving.

 

Edited 16 hours ago by YodaMan79

[notpolian]

Bingo.  How fitting.

[Slowcoach]

So appropriate 

[HappyDays]

I don't want to pile on too much but...

[K D]

A 1st round TE was a bad pick? Who could have seen this coming? Besides EVERYONE. Then a SLOW WR this past year who is like he's not even on the team. Great job Beane

[BuffaloBillyG]

He catches that and we go to the Super Bowl. Hard catch sure. But Allen got it to him somehow. Gotta catch that.

[NoSaint]

It hit him in the hands. 
 

his hands were the special trait to draft him round 1

[YodaMan79]

How is that a hard catch if you're a pro?

 

Mack Hollins made a hard catch.  What No Play Kincade dropped was 4 out of 10 in degree of difficulty. 

Edited 16 hours ago by YodaMan79

[CapeBreton]

Disaster of a season, topped it off tonight. Useless.