Dalton Kincaid- why so underwhelming this season?

[Brand J]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Nailed it.

 

Example was him not fighting hard enough to get that 3rd-2 against the Chiefs.

 

Allowed himself to get tackled short of the mark. 

You’d think Kincaid would have better instincts with the ball in his hand too. After he caught that pass, if he gave a little jab step to the left to get the defender moving that way, he could’ve EASILY gotten the first if he took it wide to the sideline instead of cutting it up inside. Truthfully, he would’ve got the first if he just went wide without the jab step, that deke move would’ve been to make that particular defender a total non factor which would’ve resulted in a much bigger play. Laporta probably makes that first down and probably that catch on 4th down. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

20 minutes ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

I agree but we should still look to improve where we can.  Imo maybe one wr that can play outside and separate.   Otherwise yes, fix the defense.   

The guy was hurt. He will be fine

[Straight Hucklebuck]

59 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

The guy was hurt. He will be fine

3.56 catches per game/6.00 targets per game/36.89 yards/game, 10.38 yards/catch in 9-games before the injury.

 

2.67 catches per game/4.17 targets per game/27.17 yards/game, 10.19 yards/catch in 6-games after the injury throwing out the Colts game including Playoffs.

 

Without Playoffs those numbers are:

 

3.33 catches per game/5.33 targets per game/30.67 yards/game, 9.20 yards/catch in 3 games post injury.

 

Yeah the numbers went down after the injury, but there wasn’t much going on before anyways. 
 

The average Kincaid game is:

 

5.72 targets/game, 4.03 catches/game, 9.58 yards/catch, 38.66 yards per game.

 

What does “fine” realistically translate to? 

 

4-TDS in 29 games. 
 

 

Edited February 9 by Straight Hucklebuck

[BananaB]

Brady can’t utilize 2 TEs so they both suffer. 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

15 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I’m getting aggravated with hearing people complain about ANYONE on the offense. The offense was elite. All time balance and scored at will. Every single problem was on defense. I don’t care who it is. If you are on offense…back off. They were part of something amazing. Every complaint should be directed towards the problem:

 

Mcdermott

the DC

The defense 

STs

 

Thats the list 

But if Kincaid makes just one last catch …. Alas, he did not. 

[billsfan714]

16 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I agree.  He was drafted to run Ken Dorsey’s pipe dream of 12 personnel but I don’t really think he’s a great fit for Brady’s offense.  
 

His blocking is a huge problem, as he has been a liability when called upon. It’s not just blocking as a TE in line, he also struggles when split out wide.  There was a screen against KC last week where Cooper got tackled because Kincaid was rocked by a DB.  
As a WR Mack Hollins has been a more reliable blocker out wide and even as a TE.  

 

Aside from this, he doesn’t really do a ton with the ball in his hands and he has not been the “sure handed” player he was touted as.  
 

I don’t have a ton of faith in Kincaid breaking out in year 3 like other fans do.  I think we’ve seen the type of player he is.  I think we’ll see another 40 catch season with about 9-10 yards reception.  That’s fine but the return is a far cry for what they traded to get him. 

 

I hated Beane pissing away a 4th to move up a few spots for him in the deepest TE draft in years.    Made no sense.

Edited February 9 by billsfan714

[QB Bills]

The drop was terrible. His effort on the third down was terrible. And let's not forget how pathetic he looked on that 4th down sneak that the refs butchered. Watch the replay on that. Instead of helping Josh push through, the weakling falls down and becomes a non-factor.

 

He's not as bad of a bust as Elam but he's a lot closer to that than many want to admit. Knox is and always has been significantly better. But Kincaid will be kept around because of where he was drafted.

[billsfan714]

2 hours ago, QB Bills said:

The drop was terrible. His effort on the third down was terrible. And let's not forget how pathetic he looked on that 4th down sneak that the refs butchered. Watch the replay on that. Instead of helping Josh push through, the weakling falls down and becomes a non-factor.

 

He's not as bad of a bust as Elam but he's a lot closer to that than many want to admit. Knox is and always has been significantly better. But Kincaid will be kept around because of where he was drafted.

Thanks for pointing out the weak ass effort on the 4th down.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

17 hours ago, Brand J said:

You’d think Kincaid would have better instincts with the ball in his hand too. After he caught that pass, if he gave a little jab step to the left to get the defender moving that way, he could’ve EASILY gotten the first if he took it wide to the sideline instead of cutting it up inside. Truthfully, he would’ve got the first if he just went wide without the jab step, that deke move would’ve been to make that particular defender a total non factor which would’ve resulted in a much bigger play. Laporta probably makes that first down and probably that catch on 4th down. 

Yeah I just watched that play like it was slow motion.
 

At first I thought he’d just put his head down and bulldoze to the line to gain.

 

Instead the defenders square up and tackle him short. 
 

The whole thing as you pointed out was just slow, no power to get through. 

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Yeah I just watched that play like it was slow motion.
 

At first I thought he’d just put his head down and bulldoze to the line to gain.

 

Instead the defenders square up and tackle him short. 
 

The whole thing as you pointed out was just slow, no power to get through. 

Why would you expect a player like Kincaid to be bulldozing people? That's not his game

 

We need to figure out how to utilize our player's strengths instead of continuing to put them in situations they're not suited to

[LEBills]

22. I talked with a Bills source who told me Dalton Kincaid’s lack of production last year was because he was a lot more injured than folks realized. “He’s gonna be a sleeper next year, trust me,” I was told. What about Amari Cooper, I asked? A shrug. “He might be done.” The implication to me being that Cooper’s days as an elite WR1 might be over, not that he would be leaving Buffalo. I still expect that if anyone would be the focal point of the Bills’ passing offense, it would have to be Khalil Shakir.
 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/matthew-berry/news/matthew-berrys-25-most-interesting-things-he-heard-at-2025-nfl-combine
 

This is notes from Matthew Berry’s time at the combine. As such it is focused on and filtered through a fantasy football lens.

 

I do remember a couple of years ago being down on Spencer Brown. Beane kept mentioning that injuries were a key reason for his struggles. Hopefully Kincaid can make a similar turnaround in 2025… Sounds like Coop won’t be back

[BuffaloBillyG]

I think the issue this year was a few things. First off for MANY expectations were he was going to break out. With him having a full season under his belt and with his injury causing a regression on the stats it looks like a double whammy. Not only did his numbers not meet fan expectations, the numbers dropped 

 

Second, even when healthy, it didn't seem like he was being used the way many here thought he would. We talked ourselves into him being Kelce 2.0, but he isn't used the same way. Not even close. Be it scheme design, him picking up the playbook or whatever...he's not been what we pictured when drafted. It's on Brady to get him some plays drawn up 

 

Third, in back to back years we have seen rookie TEs have huge seasons in LaPorta and Bowers. It stands to reason we would compare our 1st round TE to them. And he's paled in comparison. 

 

Fourth, where guys like LaPorta rarely come off the field, Kincaid splits snaps a lot. He has to take some steps forward this year. Stay healthy.  The talent is there.

[BarleyNY]

39 minutes ago, LEBills said:

22. I talked with a Bills source who told me Dalton Kincaid’s lack of production last year was because he was a lot more injured than folks realized. “He’s gonna be a sleeper next year, trust me,” I was told. What about Amari Cooper, I asked? A shrug. “He might be done.” The implication to me being that Cooper’s days as an elite WR1 might be over, not that he would be leaving Buffalo. I still expect that if anyone would be the focal point of the Bills’ passing offense, it would have to be Khalil Shakir.
 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/matthew-berry/news/matthew-berrys-25-most-interesting-things-he-heard-at-2025-nfl-combine
 

This is notes from Matthew Berry’s time at the combine. As such it is focused on and filtered through a fantasy football lens.

 

I do remember a couple of years ago being down on Spencer Brown. Beane kept mentioning that injuries were a key reason for his struggles. Hopefully Kincaid can make a similar turnaround in 2025… Sounds like Coop won’t be back

 

The big question for Kincaid is whether or not he can get into good enough condition physically to prevent these kinds of injuries. Beane already brought that up. It’s football, injuries can happen to anyone. But if a player isn’t in NFL football shape, then they’ll almost always be injured. 

[uticaclub]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I think the issue this year was a few things. First off for MANY expectations were he was going to break out. With him having a full season under his belt and with his injury causing a regression on the stats it looks like a double whammy. Not only did his numbers not meet fan expectations, the numbers dropped 

 

Second, even when healthy, it didn't seem like he was being used the way many here thought he would. We talked ourselves into him being Kelce 2.0, but he isn't used the same way. Not even close. Be it scheme design, him picking up the playbook or whatever...he's not been what we pictured when drafted. It's on Brady to get him some plays drawn up 

 

Third, in back to back years we have seen rookie TEs have huge seasons in LaPorta and Bowers. It stands to reason we would compare our 1st round TE to them. And he's paled in comparison. 

 

Fourth, where guys like LaPorta rarely come off the field, Kincaid splits snaps a lot. He has to take some steps forward this year. Stay healthy.  The talent is there.

Kincaid is too small to be a tight end, not fast enough to be a wide receiver and his hands aren't as good as advertised. He's an athlete without a position. If some team with an innovative OC or offense head coach wants to give us a 3rd for him, I think you have to take it.

[BuffaloBillyG]

13 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Kincaid is too small to be a tight end, not fast enough to be a wide receiver and his hands aren't as good as advertised. He's an athlete without a position. If some team with an innovative OC or offense head coach wants to give us a 3rd for him, I think you have to take it.

He's listed at 6'4" 240lbs. Plenty of size for a "move" TE. I'll give you speed as he ran a 4.71 while too TEs recently coming out have been in the 4.6 range. 

 

But that's still plenty of speed to get away from a LBer and plenty of size to outmatch a DB. 

 

If turning a 1st round pick into a 3rd is the move, then we need to have a serious chat about moving in from Brady and getting one of those innovative OCs you're speaking about. 

 

Also let me edit this part in real quick.

 

Fans have VERY short term memories. This is the same guy that set Bills rookie receiving records just 2 years ago. Giving up on a guy that has flashed the talent and is coming off an injury impacted second season ESPECIALLY for a two round reduction in value is an extremely short sighted idea. Remember when fans wanted Brown either cut or traded for a 7th last year coming off a couple injury riddled seasons? How would that look today? Right now the right play with Dalton is to heal him up. Design some nice down field looks for him. Build his confidence back. I think in the long run, he's going to be fine. As long as he's relatively healthy.

Edited yesterday at 02:03 PM by BuffaloBillyG

[Buffalo_Stampede]

On 2/9/2025 at 11:41 AM, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

But if Kincaid makes just one last catch …. Alas, he did not. 

You know how he hurt his knee right? 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

22. I talked with a Bills source who told me Dalton Kincaid’s lack of production last year was because he was a lot more injured than folks realized. “He’s gonna be a sleeper next year, trust me,” I was told. What about Amari Cooper, I asked? A shrug. “He might be done.” The implication to me being that Cooper’s days as an elite WR1 might be over, not that he would be leaving Buffalo. I still expect that if anyone would be the focal point of the Bills’ passing offense, it would have to be Khalil Shakir.
 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/matthew-berry/news/matthew-berrys-25-most-interesting-things-he-heard-at-2025-nfl-combine
 

This is notes from Matthew Berry’s time at the combine. As such it is focused on and filtered through a fantasy football lens.

 

I do remember a couple of years ago being down on Spencer Brown. Beane kept mentioning that injuries were a key reason for his struggles. Hopefully Kincaid can make a similar turnaround in 2025… Sounds like Coop won’t be back

Coop is cooked. All of his catches were contested, he can't run anymore. Let's get some guys in here who can get effin' OPEN. 

[BarleyNY]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

He's listed at 6'4" 240lbs. Plenty of size for a "move" TE. I'll give you speed as he ran a 4.71 while too TEs recently coming out have been in the 4.6 range. 

 

But that's still plenty of speed to get away from a LBer and plenty of size to outmatch a DB. 

 

If turning a 1st round pick into a 3rd is the move, then we need to have a serious chat about moving in from Brady and getting one of those innovative OCs you're speaking about. 

 

Also let me edit this part in real quick.

 

Fans have VERY short term memories. This is the same guy that set Bills rookie receiving records just 2 years ago. Giving up on a guy that has flashed the talent and is coming off an injury impacted second season ESPECIALLY for a two round reduction in value is an extremely short sighted idea. Remember when fans wanted Brown either cut or traded for a 7th last year coming off a couple injury riddled seasons? How would that look today? Right now the right play with Dalton is to heal him up. Design some nice down field looks for him. Build his confidence back. I think in the long run, he's going to be fine. As long as he's relatively healthy.

 

I don’t want to give up on Kincaid either. It’s not the smart move here. That said, it’s not what you paid for something that defines its worth, its value determines that. Right now Kincaid is not worth more than a third - and we would probably have trouble getting that. His struggles and injury last season and him being halfway through his cost controlled rookie contract both factor into that. So it’s not worth it to trade him because his upside outweighs his trade value. The same was true of Brown and that worked out. Maybe it’ll work out with Kincaid too. It’s certainly worth that chance IMO. 

[uticaclub]

23 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

He's listed at 6'4" 240lbs. Plenty of size for a "move" TE. I'll give you speed as he ran a 4.71 while too TEs recently coming out have been in the 4.6 range. 

 

But that's still plenty of speed to get away from a LBer and plenty of size to outmatch a DB. 

 

If turning a 1st round pick into a 3rd is the move, then we need to have a serious chat about moving in from Brady and getting one of those innovative OCs you're speaking about. 

 

Also let me edit this part in real quick.

 

Fans have VERY short term memories. This is the same guy that set Bills rookie receiving records just 2 years ago. Giving up on a guy that has flashed the talent and is coming off an injury impacted second season ESPECIALLY for a two round reduction in value is an extremely short sighted idea. Remember when fans wanted Brown either cut or traded for a 7th last year coming off a couple injury riddled seasons? How would that look today? Right now the right play with Dalton is to heal him up. Design some nice down field looks for him. Build his confidence back. I think in the long run, he's going to be fine. As long as he's relatively healthy.

I didn't realize he was that big, but wasn't it just a rookie record for tight ends? He still hasn't even had a 100-yard game. While I know that Brown developed, I can list more of Day 1 and Day 2 picks by Beane that didn't pan out. I understand that injuries slowed him down, but he didn't have a strong start to the season, which was concerning even before he got hurt in Indy.

We’ll probably move on from Brady or Babich after we get eliminated in next year’s playoffs. It will depend on how stale the offense looks or how badly the defense gets shredded.

[Bermuda Triangle]

25 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

You know how he hurt his knee right? 

A mistimed leap on a pass?