Dalton Kincaid- why so underwhelming this season?

[Pete]

I’d love to see Kincaid make me eat my words today!

 

GO BILLS!

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Pete said:

Shakir has the shortest arms in the NFL, and Josh completed 27 consecutive passes to Shakir. 6’4  Kincaid has a 58% catch rate.  Does Josh only throw accurate passes to Shakir?  Does  Kincaid drop 42% of passes?  Or does Kincaid make catches difficult by not being in correct spot?  Or do you have another idea why the disconnect?  

Not sure if this is directed at me

 

Nolan and Marino have established that Kincaid was the recipient of the highest % of uncatchable passes of any tight end in the league. I believe that uncatchable rate was in the 20% range but not sure.  I do know that he was leading the league in that stat towards the end of the season
 

I don’t think that’s all on Josh.  I think part of that is likely on Dalton- but I’m not going to pretend to know- so I’ll assume it’s partly on both of them.  
 

Comparing the passes that Shakir is receiving (mostly screen and 1-2 yard passes) to the passes that Kincaid is receiving (lots of 15-20 yard out according to Nolan, a pass Josh have never thrown well) are apple to oranges.  They are not the same.  You know this

50 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

😆😆🤣🤣

 

No I'm not. Read the scouting reports. 

 

Bowers is the number one on a bad team. 

 

Again you're confusing volume numbers with skill level

 

I mean they have been a great team for 5 years....

 

Hyperbole aside

Lol- please show me something that says Kincaid is better than bowers- 

 

no-  I’m not confusing anything.  You are blinded by your love of this team and the player.  He’s good.  You are saying that he’s way better than Bowers and Laporte -  please show me something that agrees with this statement.  I’m not talking about a scouting report from 3 years ago.  
 

Bowers was ALWAYS seen as a better prospect than Kincaid.  ALWAYS.  You’re not just saying that Kincaid is better…. But WAY better.  And you couldn’t be more wrong

Edited 20 hours ago by NewEra

[Jerome007]

It's been a weird season in that ALL receivers have had supbar numbers, except Shakir. Yet Josh is a legit MVP candidate. Both together make no sense ha ha.

And besides Kincaid, Ty Johnson should be used more, he is a legit WR!

[ganesh]

24 minutes ago, Jerome007 said:

It's been a weird season in that ALL receivers have had supbar numbers, except Shakir. Yet Josh is a legit MVP candidate. Both together make no sense ha ha.

And besides Kincaid, Ty Johnson should be used more, he is a legit WR!

And Johnson is taking away some of those red zone catches from Dalton because he has been so reliable.

[Brand J]

I’d be cool if Beane never traded up again. He tried to do it for Cole Bishop in the second round this year too and said afterwards “thankfully no one took my calls.” There will almost always be someone better who goes later than the guy selected. It’s not where someone is picked that matters, it’s who. I get why Beane went for Kincaid, but we didn’t need to trade up for a TE. Trade down and accumulate ammo if anything.

Edited 19 hours ago by Brand J

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Brand J said:

I’d be cool if Beane never traded up again. He tried to do it for Cole Bishop in the second round this year too and said afterwards “thankfully no one took my calls.” There will almost always be someone better who goes later than the guy selected. It’s not where someone is picked that matters, it’s who. I get why Beane went for Kincaid, but we didn’t need to trade up for a TE. Trade down and accumulate ammo if anything.

No Beane trade ups no Josh Allen

[Dr.Sack]

Save the best for last

[Brand J]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

No Beane trade ups no Josh Allen

I’m actually fine with it for a QB, really the only position - even though you might not hit on the best one. If you don’t have a QB in today’s NFL, you can’t compete, so I understand going up to get the guy you believe in.

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, NewEra said:

“Choking last week”- I didn’t hear anyone say Josh choked by throwing an off target pass-  yet Kincaid choked by not being able to real in an off target pass. overboard.  

 

I have a different take on this play. First play on this clip:

 

I think Kincaid needs to flatten this route. Allen throws the ball after Kincaid makes his cut and is seemingly going to finish his route on the 39. Instead he drifts upfield and ends at the 41. This makes it impossible for Allen to know where he's going.

 

If you watch it in slow motion you can see him appear to be flattening his route but suddenly he starts drifting upfield as soon as the ball leaves Allen's hands. This creates an awkward catch attempt where he slips trying to come back to where the ball was delivered. Not an awful throw, not an awful drop. Bad leverage caused by a lack of attention to detail. This is what I've seen from Kincaid too frequently this year and it's a big reason why he has a low catch percentage.

 

Edited 18 hours ago by HappyDays

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Jerome007 said:

It's been a weird season in that ALL receivers have had supbar numbers, except Shakir. Yet Josh is a legit MVP candidate. Both together make no sense ha ha.

And besides Kincaid, Ty Johnson should be used more, he is a legit WR!

 

What makes the Bills so dangerous on offense, is that they have so many guys who can make a play here or there. Every game you see so many multiple of guys make one or two plays to help Josh out. 

[Pete]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Not sure if this is directed at me

 

Nolan and Marino have established that Kincaid was the recipient of the highest % of uncatchable passes of any tight end in the league. I believe that uncatchable rate was in the 20% range but not sure.  I do know that he was leading the league in that stat towards the end of the season
 

I don’t think that’s all on Josh.  I think part of that is likely on Dalton- but I’m not going to pretend to know- so I’ll assume it’s partly on both of them.  
 

Comparing the passes that Shakir is receiving (mostly screen and 1-2 yard passes) to the passes that Kincaid is receiving (lots of 15-20 yard out according to Nolan, a pass Josh have never thrown well) are apple to oranges.  They are not the same.  You know this

Lol- please show me something that says Kincaid is better than bowers- 

 

no-  I’m not confusing anything.  You are blinded by your love of this team and the player.  He’s good.  You are saying that he’s way better than Bowers and Laporte -  please show me something that agrees with this statement.  I’m not talking about a scouting report from 3 years ago.  
 

Bowers was ALWAYS seen as a better prospect than Kincaid.  ALWAYS.  You’re not just saying that Kincaid is better…. But WAY better.  And you couldn’t be more wrong

Dalton has an average depth target of 8.8 yards.  Shakir is around 5 yards.  If not like Dalton is running deep posts often

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Nolan and Marino have established that Kincaid was the recipient of the highest % of uncatchable passes of any tight end in the league. I believe that uncatchable rate was in the 20% range but not sure.  I do know that he was leading the league in that stat towards the end of the season
 

I don’t think that’s all on Josh.  I think part of that is likely on Dalton- but I’m not going to pretend to know- so I’ll assume it’s partly on both of them.  

 

So the weird thing is that Knox's ADOT is 8.8, Kincaid's ADOT is 7.5, yet their catch percentages are 66.7% and 58.7% respectively. You would expect the opposite correlation. But Allen doesn't seem to have any trouble delivering the ball downfield when Knox is the target. This tells me Kincaid too frequently is not where Allen expects him to be. And I don't think it's a coincidence that Brady has mostly relegated Kincaid to quick short passes.

 

The biggest gap between Kincaid and Kelce is not physical, it's mental. I want him to spend this entire offseason just watching film and hopefully that will help develop some instincts for finding windows and creating leverage. That skill is what makes Kelce the GOAT.

 

Edited 18 hours ago by HappyDays

[Simon]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

So the weird thing is that Knox's ADOT is 8.8, Kincaid's ADOT is 7.5, yet their catch percentages are 66.7% and 58.7 respectively. You would expect the opposite correlation. But Allen doesn't seem to have any trouble delivering the ball downfield when Knox is the target. This tells me Kincaid too frequently is not where Allen expects him to be.

 

It's possibly worth noting that with their comparative footspeed, Knox is a much easier target to hit than Kincaid, which could be a part of teh reason for those numbers.

That being said, I do agree that Kincaid needs to get sharper. He's too much of a matchup problem to be a middling TE.

 

[Nelius]

Everybody eats

 

I still think Kincaid is a smooth route runner with fantastic hands and I love the way he almost always launches himself forward when he’s going down. He doesn’t get 10 targets so idk, he’s not going to put up Bowers numbers. Probably never will. But certainly better than Knox, and a guy worse than Knox. I’m still a fan.

Edited 18 hours ago by Nelius

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, Simon said:

That being said, I do agree that Kincaid needs to get sharper. He's too much of a matchup problem to be a middling TE.

 

He's a latecomer to the position. Only one season of high school football and one year of being a division 1 starter. So there could theoretically be a high ceiling still there to be realized.

 

It just really frustrates me because he was my draft crush last year specifically for his cerebral traits. At Utah he seemed to have a great feel for making himself available to his QB. I had visions of him being our version of Kelce, using his instincts to find space and then his physical traits to create plays after the catch. I didn't see him as a long term developmental player, I thought despite being a relative latecomer he had day one traits. So I've somewhat lost faith that he'll ever be that guy. Some players have a natural feel for the position that can't be taught. The player I saw at Utah had that feel... I don't know what went wrong.

[Simon]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

He's a latecomer to the position. Only one season of high school football and one year of being a division 1 starter. So there could theoretically be a high ceiling still there to be realized.

 

It just really frustrates me because he was my draft crush last year specifically for his cerebral traits. At Utah he seemed to have a great feel for making himself available to his QB. I had visions of him being our version of Kelce, using his instincts to find space and then his physical traits to create plays after the catch. I didn't see him as a long term developmental player, I thought despite being a relative latecomer he had day one traits. So I've somewhat lost faith that he'll ever be that guy. Some players have a natural feel for the position that can't be taught. The player I saw at Utah had that feel... I don't know what went wrong.

 

The other unexpected thing is some of the drops we've seen.

His hands looked like they were extraordinary in college and I expected that to translate with no problem.

He's let some balls get away from him that have really surprised me.

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

The other unexpected thing is some of the drops we've seen.

His hands looked like they were extraordinary in college and I expected that to translate with no problem.

He's let some balls get away from him that have really surprised me.

 

Yeah so the hope is that the speed and physicality of the NFL has been too much for such an inexperienced player, and that once he acclimates all of those gifts that made him such a good prospect will show up again. I'm not writing him off yet. But next year is big.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

1 hour ago, Brand J said:

I’d be cool if Beane never traded up again. He tried to do it for Cole Bishop in the second round this year too and said afterwards “thankfully no one took my calls.” There will almost always be someone better who goes later than the guy selected. It’s not where someone is picked that matters, it’s who. I get why Beane went for Kincaid, but we didn’t need to trade up for a TE. Trade down and accumulate ammo if anything.

I agree with you and disagree with you. Those minor trade ups are because they’ve identified “their guy” and rather get the who correct than worry about the where. 
 

That said,you are also wise stating that it is never a bad thing to wait and let the board fall to you. But you can’t really have both unless you luck out. He did it the right way in R1 this year but it isn’t always possible.
 

One quality about Beane I like is that he swings. I rather take these minor risks than sit pat and be stuck picking a player you don’t love. 
 

Now we have our QB, I agree with the no trade ups in RD1 but don’t mind moving minor pieces to see them acquire guys it’s clear they’ve identified as being right for them 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I have a different take on this play. First play on this clip:

 

I think Kincaid needs to flatten this route. Allen throws the ball after Kincaid makes his cut and is seemingly going to finish his route on the 39. Instead he drifts upfield and ends at the 41. This makes it impossible for Allen to know where he's going.

 

If you watch it in slow motion you can see him appear to be flattening his route but suddenly he starts drifting upfield as soon as the ball leaves Allen's hands. This creates an awkward catch attempt where he slips trying to come back to where the ball was delivered. Not an awful throw, not an awful drop. Bad leverage caused by a lack of attention to detail. This is what I've seen from Kincaid too frequently this year and it's a big reason why he has a low catch percentage.

 

Yeah-  you think.  That’s fine.  

You may be right- but another reason he has a low catch% is the amount of uncatchable passes thrown his way.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

If you watch it in slow motion you can see him appear to be flattening his route but suddenly he starts drifting upfield as soon as the ball leaves Allen's hands. This creates an awkward catch attempt where he slips trying to come back to where the ball was delivered. Not an awful throw, not an awful drop. Bad leverage caused by a lack of attention to detail. This is what I've seen from Kincaid too frequently this year and it's a big reason why he has a low catch percentage.

 

 

I agree. I still think Allen just drags the ball a little short. Even if Kincaid flattens it out at the 40 yard line rather than drifting that is still a below the waist ball. Could definitely have been thrown better, but agree the route was not what it should have been.