Dalton Kincaid- why so underwhelming this season?

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 hours ago, Pete said:

Where are the mismatches?  Where are the big plays?  Why are you not clicking with Josh?  Is Brady to blame?  Opposing TEs continually find soft spots in our coverage, and catch large chunk plays, game after game.  Why can't Kincaid?

 

9 different Bills have had most receiving yards in a game.  Kincaid has 0.

 

We know Kincaid has mitts, and he looks smooth sometimes.  Hes got size, and some speed.  Knox is a much more complete TE, yet Kincaid still struggles

 

Will Kincaid make any big plays against KC?

 

I like Dalton, and I am rooting for him.  But Im perplexed why he is so underwhelming.

 

Thoughts?

 

GO BILLS!

There are only so many balls to go around (pause) when your QB throws it 16 times plus as someone mentioned earlier, Kincaid was probably in the dog house for that drop. Seems like the Bills like to mix it up week to week as far as who gets more passes. Shakir is the only one who seems to get any consistent production every week. Can anyone really complain? We are going to the AFC championship game w/ a relatively healthy offense. I think this is because not one guy is getting too beat up. I expect Kincaid and Cooper are going to have massive games next week. We need our stars to shine. 

[Dillenger4]

On 1/20/2025 at 10:58 AM, Special K said:

It wasn't a "sliding catch drop"......he sipped on his cut because of the icy field, was falling when the ball got there, then the ball hit him in the shoulder pad instead of the hands because he was falling......why are people looking for things to complain about after a big victory...... don't get it.

Well Mr Negative Nancy - I was not looking for anything to complain about. I was simply stating that he slid and didn't catch a pass that bounced off of his facemask actually, not his shoulder. Right through his hands. Josh didn't seem to look his way much after that.

Not complaining at all... jus stating a fact for the other poster who was asking "what happened" to Kincaid.

Maybe, after that miss... Josh moved to other options? Who knows. Either way - YES, great win!

[Special K]

22 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Well Mr Negative Nancy - I was not looking for anything to complain about. I was simply stating that he slid and didn't catch a pass that bounced off of his facemask actually, not his shoulder. Right through his hands. Josh didn't seem to look his way much after that.

Not complaining at all... jus stating a fact for the other poster who was asking "what happened" to Kincaid.

Maybe, after that miss... Josh moved to other options? Who knows. Either way - YES, great win!

 

Nothing personal against you....at that moment, there were five different threads about players who "sucked" in a game the Bills won. It was more a comment on the threads in general, not your specific comment.

 

Go Bills!!

On 1/20/2025 at 10:58 AM, Special K said:

 

 

On 1/20/2025 at 11:27 AM, Special K said:

Complaining and nit-picking about your team after a big win is annoying.

 

Its like saying: "I asked Natalie Portman out on a date, and she said yes, but then I had to pay for the dinner." Give me a break! 

 

Edited 15 hours ago by Special K

[zow2]

Yeah after watching Laporta make that diving one handed stab TD catch on Saturday night i was hoping for a Kincaid legacy game vs the Ravens.  Didn't exactly pan out lol.

[GoBills808]

long story tbh...can reference a bunch of tape because ive been watching him a lot but the tldr version is (imo) he's a physical mismatch for the offense we are running. too slight of build

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 1/20/2025 at 9:24 AM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Yep. Tough catch but one that great TE's are expected to make. It hit him right in the hands.

 

I hate to say it, to me it is starting to become clear that not only is he not that guy, I question if he becomes a liability and is it worth keeping him on the roster through his entire rookie contract at the expense of not getting fair looks at other TE options. Feel like there can be good free agent candidates at the TE position that the Bills could look at. 

 

That all said, still some hope he puts it all together still. But he has been a pretty big disappointment thus far. 

 

Yes its worth keeping a player on their rookie contract after 2 seasons.  I don't see him or Knox going anywhere going into next season.

 

You'd be trading a player who's the 32nd highest paid by AAV at TE (knox is 13th FWIW), and then immediately either using that pick to replace him, or spending more than you save on the replacement player.  The contract works out that you can draft the knox replacement this year or next, and if kincaid deserves an extension you can do it.  

[GASabresIUFan]

Some of the issue(s) with Kincaid is the Bills running game.  The increased use of Knox, Gilliam and Anderson to create a more physical running game, has almost certainly cut into his snap count.  The relative health of Knox and Kincaid also factored in as did more dropped balls by Kincaid.

 

We as fans also have to get our minds around the fact that the Bills are now a run first team.  The strength of this team is the RB room, depth on the OL coupled with Knox and Gilliam.  
 

Kincaid is a slot WR/TE who just isn’t as reliable as Shakir and isn’t as physical as Knox.  However, don’t read this as an indictment on Kincaid.  I really like him and think he has a very bright future in Buffalo.  I believe that Brady and Josh want more results from the vertical passing game, but the talent there isn’t fully developed (Kincaid and Coleman).  Therefore to play winning football we are out muscling defenses on the line and taking shots when they present themselves.  So far so good. 

Besides Shakir, I also think our best pass catchers are Cook, Davis and Johnson.    
 

The added advantage of the running game is the ball control offense that keeps our gash-able defense on the sideline. 

Edited 14 hours ago by GASabresIUFan

[GoBills808]

On 1/20/2025 at 6:58 AM, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

There are only so many balls to go around (pause) when your QB throws it 16 times plus as someone mentioned earlier, Kincaid was probably in the dog house for that drop. Seems like the Bills like to mix it up week to week as far as who gets more passes. Shakir is the only one who seems to get any consistent production every week. Can anyone really complain? We are going to the AFC championship game w/ a relatively healthy offense. I think this is because not one guy is getting too beat up. I expect Kincaid and Cooper are going to have massive games next week. We need our stars to shine. 

 

4 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Yes its worth keeping a player on their rookie contract after 2 seasons.  I don't see him or Knox going anywhere going into next season.

 

You'd be trading a player who's the 32nd highest paid by AAV at TE (knox is 13th FWIW), and then immediately either using that pick to replace him, or spending more than you save on the replacement player.  The contract works out that you can draft the knox replacement this year or next, and if kincaid deserves an extension you can do it.  

Kincaid has way too much talent to just trade away for me

 

Assuming we keep Brady I expect the philosophy on offense next season to be more conducive to his skillset

 

 

[JP51]

On 1/20/2025 at 9:39 AM, sunshynman said:

Sophomore slump.

Not sure one way or the other... but it is a thing when teams know about you and plan for you as opposed to being a relative unknown... players need to learn to adjust and improve... lets hope this happens... 

[Sweats]

On 1/20/2025 at 11:18 AM, Logic said:

I think opposing defenses are rightly recognizing that the Bills' best pass catchers reside in the middle of the field.

Shakir, Kincaid, Knox. 

As such, they tend to focus most of their attention on shutting down those players, and the Bills -- at this moment -- largely don't have the horses on the outside to make defenses want to play any other way.

In order for things to open up for the tight ends and even increase opportunities for Shakir, the Bills need to improve their outside receiver position in the offseason. Maybe Cooper gets more fully integrated in the offense, maybe Coleman takes second year strides, or maybe they draft a guy or sign one in free agency.

Until the Bills improve at outside WR, we can likely continue to expect opposing defenses to focus on taking away the TEs and Shakir.

 

 

 

 

Logic, my man.......for the most part i would agree with this, however, how are we in the AFC divisional round if teams have figured us out by taking away the middle of the field and limiting Shakir and our TE's?

Wouldn't teams have figured it out the past 12 games and actually created the blueprint on how to beat us, especially down the stretch?

Obviously, we're doing something right cause we're still winning games, most by 20-30 points, i might add and teams aren't even slowing us down. Every player is getting the ball and everyone is producing.

You would think that if teams have taken away the middle and by forcing us to throw to the outside (which we have no real threat) that we would have limited scoring and/or limited points reflected on the scoreboard.

 

I think this is exactly the O that Brady and McD want.........take away our TE's, we'll find someone else.......take away Shakir, we'll throw it to Hollins........take away Hollins, well, how about Samuel.........no Samuel, we'll dump it to Cook or how about Davis or Ty?

 

I don't think taking away the middle is an issue for this team as long as they compensate with scheme.

 

.......my opinion.

[Beck Water]

48 minutes ago, Special K said:

Nothing personal against you....at that moment, there were five different threads about players who "sucked" in a game the Bills won. It was more a comment on the threads in general, not your specific comment.

 

Agreed, and even more commentary on players having their "worst game" or "sucking" inside various main threads.  The negativity is very annoying.

[Kelly to Allen]

I'm predicting a Kincaid catch like Dwight Clark to win the game and changing of the guard. 

 

Let's go Buffalo 🦬 🦬 🦬 

[YodaMan79]

I hear a bunch of posters talk about his talent, but I’ve just seen JAG performance.  Nothing has really stood out over the past two years.  I’ve seen more from the Miami castoff and current Bengal MG.  To me he a poor man’s version of him and that not good for a 1st rounder. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

Kincaid has way too much talent to just trade away for me

 

Assuming we keep Brady I expect the philosophy on offense next season to be more conducive to his skillset

 

 

 

It's also a position that has a track record of slower starting careers, but everything is situational for sure.  There's been some rookies who have made statistical impacts like laporta and bowers this year, but neither of them is also sharing snaps with a quality veteran tight end. 

 

Buffalo was also 26th in pass attempts this season.  When you factor in that the bills were the least sacked team in the league, they probably ran among the fewest pass plays in the league.  

Just now, YodaMan79 said:

I hear a bunch of posters talk about his talent, but I’ve just seen JAG performance.  Nothing has really stood out over the past two years.  I’ve seen more from the Miami castoff and current Bengal MG.  To me he a poor man’s version of him and that not good for a 1st rounder. 

 

That TD against the steelers comes to mind.  As for gesicki... they cannot run the ball when they need to be able to and a tight ends job is more than just catching out routes underneath higgins and chase.  

[Logic]

24 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

Logic, my man.......for the most part i would agree with this, however, how are we in the AFC divisional round if teams have figured us out by taking away the middle of the field and limiting Shakir and our TE's?

Wouldn't teams have figured it out the past 12 games and actually created the blueprint on how to beat us, especially down the stretch?

Obviously, we're doing something right cause we're still winning games, most by 20-30 points, i might add and teams aren't even slowing us down. Every player is getting the ball and everyone is producing.

You would think that if teams have taken away the middle and by forcing us to throw to the outside (which we have no real threat) that we would have limited scoring and/or limited points reflected on the scoreboard.

 

I think this is exactly the O that Brady and McD want.........take away our TE's, we'll find someone else.......take away Shakir, we'll throw it to Hollins........take away Hollins, well, how about Samuel.........no Samuel, we'll dump it to Cook or how about Davis or Ty?

 

I don't think taking away the middle is an issue for this team as long as they compensate with scheme.

 

.......my opinion.

I would respond that our run game has been the primary engine of our offense as of late.

I would also suggest that, on the whole, the production from our tight ends has been average to below average most weeks.

Considering that we have a healthy Dalton Kincaid (a 1st rounder chosen ahead of Sam Laporta) and a healthy Dawson Knox (a 3rd rounder who's a pretty good and athletic receiving TE in his own right) at tight end, you'd think the Bills offense would post dominant tight end production, but they don't. We'll see Knox or Kincaid come up with a big clutch catch here and there, but they're certainly not a dominant force most weeks. I can't remember off the top of my head many weeks this season where I thought "Man, the Bills tight ends are dominating this game!".

Shakir, of course, has been producing quite well, primarily playing from the slot. I did not mean to imply the teams have completely taken away the middle, only that they are able to devote a lot of attention and resources to doing so because no one on the outside is particularly scary. And some teams -- the good teams -- have done so reasonably well. 

Obviously, a team producing as many points as the Bills offense does and who is one game away from a Super Bowl berth is doing quite well for itself on offense. My point, though, was specifically in response to the "why isn't Kincaid more productive?" post, which is the purpose of this whole thread. And my answer is "because the Bills don't have threatening enough players on the outside to regularly dissuade opposing defenses from keying on him". That's not the whole answer, of course, but I think it plays a large part.

[ganesh]

On 1/20/2025 at 6:10 AM, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

 

If I had to guess, he is just not the first option most of the time. Sort of getting the scraps in this “everybody eats” offense. 

 

I do think he has the potential to have a Kelce-like impact if he were the main target out there.

I think they tried to force feed him in the 1st quarter of the season and that really failed as he had quite a few drops or Allen was over throwing him.  I think they have gone away from it in the 2nd half of the season.  In fact, Knox has got more targets in the 2nd half.   Time to unleash him as he has the potential to get 1st downs consistently.

[Sweats]

15 minutes ago, Logic said:

I would respond that our run game has been the primary engine of our offense as of late.

I would also suggest that, on the whole, the production from our tight ends has been average to below average most weeks.

Considering that we have a healthy Dalton Kincaid (a 1st rounder chosen ahead of Sam Laporta) and a healthy Dawson Knox (a 3rd rounder who's a pretty good and athletic receiving TE in his own right) at tight end, you'd think the Bills offense would post dominant tight end production, but they don't. We'll see Knox or Kincaid come up with a big clutch catch here and there, but they're certainly not a dominant force most weeks. I can't remember off the top of my head many weeks this season where I thought "Man, the Bills tight ends are dominating this game!".

Shakir, of course, has been producing quite well, primarily playing from the slot. I did not mean to imply the teams have completely taken away the middle, only that they are able to devote a lot of attention and resources to doing so because no one on the outside is particularly scary. And some teams -- the good teams -- have done so reasonably well. 

Obviously, a team producing as many points as the Bills offense does and who is one game away from a Super Bowl berth is doing quite well for itself on offense. My point, though, was specifically in response to the "why isn't Kincaid more productive?" post, which is the purpose of this whole thread. And my answer is "because the Bills don't have threatening enough players on the outside to regularly dissuade opposing defenses from keying on him". That's not the whole answer, of course, but I think it plays a large part.

 

 

 

All, good points.

I'm not sure if Brady knows how to fully utilize TE's in his schemes. As i recall with his time at LSU, they typically focused on the WR's and RB's and looked at TE's as an afterthought, which is why i am kind of leaning in that direction for the limited TE production in the Bills O (just a theory).

 

I watched Kincaid play in college and was ecstatic that we drafted him, however, his NFL production has been dismal, sporadic and non-existent and i have no other words other than not being schemed properly, same goes for Knox.

 

I think if we could get both these guys going, we could arguably have the best one-two TE punch in the league, but as it sits now, it's almost like we're going to keep going with what has brought us to the dance and so far, it hasn't been the TE's.

[Spiderweb]

On 1/20/2025 at 9:28 AM, HOUSE said:

I suspect a season long injury,  stay tuned AFTER the Bills win the Superbowl 

Exactly. He injured his knee, missed a few games and has worn a brace since. 

[VW82]

He's still useful as a mismatch receiving TE but as others have said he isn't the best fit as an every down player in our run packages that we love so much.

 

It'll be interesting to see what we do as far as extension when the time comes. In the meantime, I doubt we cut Knox, cap savings or not.  

Edited 14 hours ago by VW82

[ngbills]

I have really wanted Kincaid to be good. But for me, it felt like more of a hope than many who have guaranteed his greatness. I got slammed pretty bad when questioning anything about him. I still see an undersized TE that is really more like a big WR. Problem is I don't see him physically dominating DB's, outrunning LB's, or any of the mismatch stuff expected. There glimpses here and there, but honestly I see random TE's on other teams that appear way more talented. I really hope something clicks at some point with him. But it could be he is just an average TE.