AFC Championship Game Week Thread - Bills at Chiefs

[LEBills]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

This was a really great post thanks!!

 

Do we increase our blitz?

KC may have been non-explosive all year.....but I'm still weary of Worthy and Brown against our safeties.   Mahomes even mentioned how they need to push the ball downfield more. 

I also see us running a more Air Raid type offense in this game than we have since the Lions game 

To be fair they have been talking about pushing the ball downfield all year and haven’t been able to. I think we are probably going to show a lot of light boxes, giving our secondary plenty of help, and dare the Chiefs to beat us running. I don’t think Pacheco is healthy enough and Hunt isn’t explosive enough to take advantage imo.

 

If we could get up on the Chiefs quickly like we did the Lions, I think it will be a comfortable game for the Bills. Spags is a much tougher person to predict what he is going to do defensively compared to Glenn who stuck with man coverage despite being down so many starters. So I think the Bills will focus on the run and staying on schedule early until they get a feel for how the Chiefs are playing them. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

36 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Their locked on pod guy said yesterday don’t be surprised if they move Thuney back.  
 

I agree with him.  
 

Their offense is better running the ball with him at Guard.  They will want to be able to run it on us.  
 

Our DEs aren’t the matchup nightmare other teams may give them.   
 

But if it does happen - Rousseau absolutely needs to have the game of his life.  

If it was me I’d move him back but they might not want to fiddle with the continuity for this big of a game.

 

I do think our dline is pretty underrated on this board in pass rush at least and Andy Reid is not gonna underrate them…guess we’ll see haha this is one of those decisions where there’s no right answer and if the chiefs lose everyone will say Reid should’ve done the other thing lol 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

7 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

If it was me I’d move him back but they might not want to fiddle with the continuity for this big of a game.

 

I do think our dline is pretty underrated on this board in pass rush at least and Andy Reid is not gonna underrate them…guess we’ll see haha this is one of those decisions where there’s no right answer and if the chiefs lose everyone will say Reid should’ve done the other thing lol 

We've all seen what Oliver can do when he plays possessed. 

 

He dominated in Detroit against a veteran Center. 

 

Rousseau is the best we have, plays the most snaps, is the best combination of pass/run DE. 

 

 

[Carptom1]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

This was a really great post thanks!!

 

Do we increase our blitz?

KC may have been non-explosive all year.....but I'm still weary of Worthy and Brown against our safeties.   Mahomes even mentioned how they need to push the ball downfield more. 

I also see us running a more Air Raid type offense in this game than we have since the Lions game 

This is where coaches and teams get in trouble. They get away from what they are good at riding with what got them there. I have watched the Ravens do it two years in a row. Allen has done a great job protecting the ball and taking what defenders are giving him. Against the Lions this played into their weakness. They had little pass rush and their defensive backs were weak. If you do it against the Chiefs you will play into our strengths. Mcduffie and Watson will minimize Cooper and Shakir. The money will be made with Coleman, Knox and Cook as after those two our coverage can be shaky.

[zow2]

Mahomes has something like a 126 passer rating in the 3 playoff games vs Buffalo and completes 75% of his passes.  I mean c'mon D, they have to show up to win this thing.

[Sierra Foothills]

6 hours ago, LEBills said:

We now enter the Championship game with much more favorable tends for the Bills than those we had going into the Ravens game.

 

Historical trends:

 

Over the past 5 years, the Chiefs are 15-2 in the playoffs. Teams with a rest advantage going into Championship weekend are 26-16 and 20-7 when at home.

 

Josh Allen is 0-3 as a road dog in the playoffs. The Bills have not won a road playoff game since 1992 (at Miami). Allen has never won consecutive games when he has been a betting underdog in both (0-15 opportunities). 

 

Mahomes is 3-0 in playoff games vs Allen. There has never been a QB who has beaten another QB 4 consecutive times in the playoffs. 4 teams have won 2 consecutive Superbowls and made the next Championship game. Those teams all lost.

 

2024 Trends:

 

The Chiefs have never had more penalties called against them than their opponent in a Mahomes playoff game and only have one game where the had more penalty yardage than their opponent. Mahomes is 6-5 in games Clete Blakeman has reffed. The last game he reffed was a 20-14 home loss against the Raiders - the last non-Bills loss the Chiefs incurred. Road teams have won 11 games officiated by Blakeman in 2024, the most of any official.

 

Chiefs O vs Bills D

 

The Chiefs have not had a turnover in 8 games. In the last 9 games, the Bills have created 11 turnovers. The Bills have not lost the turnover battle at all this season.

 

The Chiefs have only given up 4 sacks of Mahomes since moving Thuney to LT week 15, though three of those came last week. Thuney is not particularly good at LT, but he is not completely whiffing on blocks like past LTs. The Ravens and Broncos were the 2nd and 3rd least sacked teams this year and the Bills produced two sacks each game.

 

Patrick Mahomes stats vs blitz since Week 12: 81.6 QB rating (25th), 56.3% completion rate (32nd), 6.8 yards per attempt (23rd), 63.2 PFF grade (28th).

 

On the year, Kansas City’s offense finished bottom 10 in yards/play, yards/rush, and dead last in explosive play rate.

 

The Chiefs 48.5% 3rd down conversion percentage (2nd best in the NFL) has allowed their offense to continue drives and post the 10th best time of possession. The Bills allowed the 31st worst 3rd down conversion percentage through week 17 of the regular season.

 

Bills O vs Chiefs D

 

Since losing to the Bills, the Chiefs have 25 sacks in 7 games (not including the week 18 backup game). In that same timeframe, the Bills have surrendered 4 sacks total while playing the top two sack producing teams in that span.

 

The Bills average 4.7 yards per carry on the road in 2024.The Chiefs run defense allows 4.5 ypc at home.The Chiefs only allowed 23.6 receiving yards per game to running backs and no touchdowns

 

The Chiefs did allowed the most receiving yards to Tight Ends this season and 11th most touchdowns.

 

They also allow the most receptions and 2nd most yards to slot receivers.

 

This week Andy Reid has stressed getting stops on 3rd down after the Bills converted 9 of 15 (60%) third downs in the regular season match. For 2024, the Bills ranked 7th in 3rd down conversion rate and the Chiefs defense ranked 23rd in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed through 17 weeks of 2024.

 

Tyler Bass is 24-29 on the season and 59-64 PAT. Butker is 21-25 and 29-31 on PAT. Whereas Butker is automatic within 50 and Bass is a bit scattershot. Butker is 2-5 from 50+ and Bass is 4-4. Bills need to do some self scouting to prevent any type of punt or kick blocking.

 

To editorialize a bit: The Chiefs will not beat themselves with turnovers, and playing on the road will be difficult. The Bills offense though is well suited to take advantage of the Chiefs defense. Look for our TEs and Shakir to have a day (unless they move McDuffie inside). And look for us to control the TOP with many 3rd down conversions using Joshs running and a good rushing attack led by our 6OL formations and the RT side of our OL. If we do that, the Chiefs offense is not explosive enough to make up lost TOP. Unlike last week where we needed the Ravens to make a few mistakes, there is a clear path to victory this week if we execute cleanly

Thanks very much, good Sir.

 

[stlbills13]

1 minute ago, zow2 said:

Mahomes has something like a 126 passer rating in the 3 playoff games vs Buffalo and completes 75% of his passes.  I mean c'mon D, they have to show up to win this thing.

 

This is correct. At some point the defense has to step up and stop Mahomes when it matters. And to me it's about getting pressure on him and not letting him extend plays or let his pass catchers find space. 

[Beck Water]

54 minutes ago, 26TrapDraw said:

Cynthia Freelund was saying last. Ight that no Rapp or no Benford. ( she was looking rough too by the way) is this true? Is it confirmed?

 

No, it's not confirmed.  It's possible she has an inside source.

 

McDermott does a weekly segment with Sal Capaccio at 10:45 Eastern, and usually one of the other reporters will listen and tweet out what he says - Joe Buscaglia or Alaina Getzenberg are two to watch.  McDermott will often say on that show if a player has been ruled out.

 

Some other info:

 

Analysis based on previous injury reports vs game availability:
https://x.com/BangedUpBills/status/1882787197767881168

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Banged up Bills was initially "positive" on Rapp's injury saying if it was a labrum tear that he could play through it. 

 

McDermott will get his first crack at declaring anyone out here within the hour on the Extra Point Show. 

 

You hope to hear that nobody is ruled out yet. The formal press conference will be sometime around noon. 

 

I can't see Milano not going. 

 

Benford is the big one, all you can hope is he can get back to baseline and clear. He was running up and down the field yesterday, as the reporters said - he looked normal. 

[Big Blitz]

If we’re in a position to get a TD to tie or take the lead at the end - I’d have no issue if they do it running as much time off the clock as possible

 

30 seconds is more then enough time to get into FG range.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

If we’re in a position to get a TD to tie or take the lead at the end - I’d have no issue if they do it running as much time off the clock as possible

 

30 seconds is more then enough time to get into FG range.  

Such a Schopp/WGR question. 

 

Can't really analyze anything so we talk prop bets, betting lines, and fringe items like punts, 4th-downs, penalties and 2-point conversions. 

[stevewin]

2 hours ago, finn said:

That's what I've noticed. He's had some brilliant deep throws in his career, but he built his reputation by throwing short and medium passes to fantastic receivers who did the rest. He is also an underrated scrambler who extends plays and drives as well as anyone. His Achilles Heel is pressure, with a twist. He recognizes the blitz and gets rid of the ball effectively, but if a three- or four-man front gets in his face and the coverage is good, he is ordinary, even below average. When Tampa Bay was able to get that pressure in their Super Bowl, Beane took note, drafting Rousseau and, unfortunately, Boogie Basham the very next year, then breaking the bank to sign Von Miller soon after. 

 

In short, one key to the game is whether Miller, Rousseau, Von, and the others can rattle him on their own while Milano or Dorian keeps him from taking off down the field. Not easy, when he has Reid calling a wide assortment of screens and crossers to get the ball out of his hand quickly. At the risk of stating the obvious, the best game plan for the Bills will be to control the ball with the run game, build a lead, and force KC to play catch up. That may happen, but I suspect it's more likely that the game will be a grueling defensive battle as the two sets of coordinators, all four of them excellent, each meeting move with countermove all game long. 

I was thinking about this the other day - Groot was drafted primarily to be the 'Mahomes-stopper' - with his mobility and length and presumed ability to actually grab and take Mahomes down as he was scrambling around.   Not sure how much this has actually came true - has had some injuries and maybe Mahomes has adapted his game a bit.  Would be nice to see some dividends this weekend

[Big Turk]

57 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

We've all seen what Oliver can do when he plays possessed. 

 

He dominated in Detroit against a veteran Center. 

 

Rousseau is the best we have, plays the most snaps, is the best combination of pass/run DE. 

 

 

 

He dominated Lindenbaum against Baltimore as well.

[bills6969]

 

[Chandler#81]

Taylor Rapp out for the game per McDermott 

[Coach Tuesday]

Ugh. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, Chandler#81 said:

Taylor Rapp out for the game per McDermott 

Yeah that's awful. 

 

So that Day to Day was just coach speak, wonder if he couched that with "he's progressing".  

[nbbillsfan]

Rapp not playing is a big deal and Mxdermott knows it. The whole day-to-day thing seemed like obvious gamesmanship to put doubt in Andy Reid’s mind about creating a game plan to attack the safeties. I doubt Reid fell for it, and I fully expect him to look to exploit Bishop and Hamlin.

[Warriorspikes51]

I think it's a really bad idea to start a rookie back there.  Cam Lewis please

[Beast]

Not only is Rapp out but Benford won’t even be at practice according to McDermott. I didn’t catch the reason why he won’t be at practice.

 

Milano and Taron will be full go at practice.

Edited Friday at 04:12 PM by Beast