AFC Championship Game Week Thread - Bills at Chiefs

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, Charles Romes said:

Thuney has now had a few games at left tackle and has done better than others for the chiefs out there, but at the expense of the run game.
 

More importantly, there is now plenty of tape of what Thuney struggles with at left tackle. Long arm Rousseau and Von should be making plays on short arm Thuney. 

Any reports on who’s playing where in KC’s practices?

 

I was thinking they were playing Thuney at LT to close out the season to ensure DJ Humphreys would be healthy for the most important games.  But maybe Humphries just sucks

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Their HC is pretending KC is the underdogs  

I genuinely think he feels like an underdog matchup wise

[Warriorspikes51]

4 hours ago, LEBills said:

 

 

Patrick Mahomes stats vs blitz since Week 12: 81.6 QB rating (25th), 56.3% completion rate (32nd), 6.8 yards per attempt (23rd), 63.2 PFF grade (28th).

 

On the year, Kansas City’s offense finished bottom 10 in yards/play, yards/rush, and dead last in explosive play rate

 

To editorialize a bit: The Chiefs will not beat themselves with turnovers, and playing on the road will be difficult. The Bills offense though is well suited to take advantage of the Chiefs defense. Look for our TEs and Shakir to have a day (unless they move McDuffie inside). And look for us to control the TOP with many 3rd down conversions using Joshs running and a good rushing attack led by our 6OL formations and the RT side of our OL. If we do that, the Chiefs offense is not explosive enough to make up lost TOP. Unlike last week where we needed the Ravens to make a few mistakes, there is a clear path to victory this week if we execute cleanly

This was a really great post thanks!!

 

Do we increase our blitz?

KC may have been non-explosive all year.....but I'm still weary of Worthy and Brown against our safeties.   Mahomes even mentioned how they need to push the ball downfield more. 

I also see us running a more Air Raid type offense in this game than we have since the Lions game 

[Carptom1]

7 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

Sort of staying away from media this week, national and local. I know these teams, I know the narratives. I’ll probably spent the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl enjoying a few Chiefs whine. I’ll wait til then though. 
 

Mahomes have any ankle/foot issues at all right now that we can assess? Not the drama crap. I think he’s a sitting duck back there and McDermott should touch the accelerator a little bit on making that pocket hole shrink in on him—if he squirts he gets yards, so the spy(er) will be able to come off a quick hit pass catcher, have an player rotate so the spy can break down Mahomes for a tackle. Just keep him in front, smart angles on the sprints to the sidelines. Sack, give up 6yds on a scramble but try to stop the 15 yard, drive extending bursts. WHERE YOU AT 43!!!!!!!!!!

You make it sound so simple.

[zow2]

The Bills played 4 road games against playoff teams this season and gave up an average of 36 points.  They were swiss cheese.  Obviously if KC gets anywhere near that total on Sunday night it's a big L for Buffalo.  The D needs to show up and play their best game of the season....maybe their best game over the past couple seasons considering the opponent.

[finn]

6 hours ago, Beck Water said:

But if you get him off his spot and make him run around without allowing him to escape and run, it can have the same effect.  He becomes inaccurate.

That's what I've noticed. He's had some brilliant deep throws in his career, but he built his reputation by throwing short and medium passes to fantastic receivers who did the rest. He is also an underrated scrambler who extends plays and drives as well as anyone. His Achilles Heel is pressure, with a twist. He recognizes the blitz and gets rid of the ball effectively, but if a three- or four-man front gets in his face and the coverage is good, he is ordinary, even below average. When Tampa Bay was able to get that pressure in their Super Bowl, Beane took note, drafting Rousseau and, unfortunately, Boogie Basham the very next year, then breaking the bank to sign Von Miller soon after. 

 

In short, one key to the game is whether Miller, Rousseau, Von, and the others can rattle him on their own while Milano or Dorian keeps him from taking off down the field. Not easy, when he has Reid calling a wide assortment of screens and crossers to get the ball out of his hand quickly. At the risk of stating the obvious, the best game plan for the Bills will be to control the ball with the run game, build a lead, and force KC to play catch up. That may happen, but I suspect it's more likely that the game will be a grueling defensive battle as the two sets of coordinators, all four of them excellent, each meeting move with countermove all game long. 

[finn]

10 hours ago, Rich Stadium Original said:

And besides, to heap praise on the Bills and Allen would be to admit they were WRONG..and their egos just keep getting in the way.

Right, they come out with very strong opinions, but when they're wrong, they don't admit it, or they make excuses. That Broussard guy who bellowed all week about the Ravens dominance over the Bills insisted after the game that he was right all along, the Ravens are much better but they basically chose to lose against a weak team. What a job these guys have! Can you imagine showing up, shouting (essentially) that you ARE manly, that you're NOT too small down there, and that you're NOT afraid of your own shadow---and getting paid millions of dollars for it? 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The Bills played 4 road games against playoff teams this season and gave up an average of 36 points.  They were swiss cheese.  Obviously if KC gets anywhere near that total on Sunday night it's a big L for Buffalo.  The D needs to show up and play their best game of the season....maybe their best game over the past couple seasons considering the opponent.

Good point I just want to add there were pretty extenuating circumstances in a lot of those.  Defense was absolutely ravaged for 6 of those quarters against Baltimore and Detroit. Both those teams scored a lot of points on us but they weren’t terribly far off their season averages.

Texans were only a couple points above their season average and I think we got a better Texans offense than most saw this year injury wise 

 

rams game was definitely the roughest we were full strength on defense more or less…Milano was playing awful at that point though and I think he probably gets benched if that’s a playoff game.  Not sure how many points that would’ve saved though so that probably would’ve been at least ‘bad’ regardless lol

[EasternOHBillsFan]

My points for this game:

 

- Referees cannot call an excessive amount of offensive holding calls

- Chiefs offensive line is the fatal weakness if our defense can exploit it, forcing the Chiefs into abandoning the HB runs

- Bills secondary not beating themselves with mental mistakes

- Play turnover free football like we did against most opponents this year

 

I feel as if we win if we can win these bullet points.

[zow2]

4 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Good point I just want to add there were pretty extenuating circumstances in a lot of those.  Defense was absolutely ravaged for 6 of those quarters against Baltimore and Detroit. Both those teams scored a lot of points on us but they weren’t terribly far off their season averages.

Texans were only a couple points above their season average and I think we got a better Texans offense than most saw this year injury wise 

 

rams game was definitely the roughest we were full strength on defense more or less…Milano was playing awful at that point though and I think he probably gets benched if that’s a playoff game.  Not sure how many points that would’ve saved though so that probably would’ve been at least ‘bad’ regardless lol

 

I agree somewhat, there are circumstances in each loss we can point to.  You mentioned some and the Rams game was a few days after the Big AFC East clinching prime time snow game.  McD was doing snow angels for goodness sakes.  They were not going into that game with a "must win" playoff attitude.  Even after the game McD was kinda pissed and said sometimes you need to be slapped in the face,, or punched in the mouth..whatever cliché' and learn valuables lessons from it.  They went back home and regrouped and got out to a big 14-0 lead vs Detroit.

 

To me this is a McDermott Legacy game.  This is it.  Back in 2020 they weren't ready for the moment yet,,,and Josh Allen has already played brilliantly against KC, left the field winning in 2021 and never touched the ball again.

[PoundingDog]

3 Heavy weights in AFC, Chiefs, Bills , Ravens. Bills have to go thru two them. 

 

Bills lost to Ravens on the road by more than 2 score in regular season. Ravens came into Buffalo in the playoff looking like the better team and lost, barely.

 

The Chiefs lost to Bills on the road by 2 scores in regular season. The Bills now have to go KC for AFC Championship. The Chiefs player were seething about earlier loss as reported, just like the Bills' players were last week preparing for the Ravens.

 

Both teams have players back that were not present in the first game. I suspect the Bills may not be able to pass the ball as easily as they did last time, in which McDuffie had to switch from Shakir to Cooper after Cooper burned them. This time they will have Watson back, who played OK against the Texans, but I always suspect a player who missed the whole regular season about what condition he's in. I think the Bills will spend a lot of time analyzing how to improve their running attack as last time it was really bad. So likely more running success, less in downfield passes. Defensively, Mahomes has Hollywood Brown who looked to be good, but Pacheco looked lost a lot of explosiveness (who knows, he may get it all back this week). The Bills will have Milano. Since the Chiefs are at home, so they might be able to do more play changing wise to be a little better than the regular season game.

 

All in all. I expect a one score tight game. Just like the Ravens game last Sunday, a little luck may decide the whole thing. I hope the Chiefs have used up all their luck during the regular season.

 

Speaking of luck, I'll add McDermott may need to sit in Special Team room all week. The Chiefs ST is OUTSTANDING this season, won a couple of games directly for them. The Bills ST is down right ugly. We cannot afford any mistakes we have had so far this season - you name it, blocked punt, blocked field goal, allowing a punt fake to succeed, allowing a kickoff return for TD, etc. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

It might sound crazy but…All things considered, a win Sunday could be considered the biggest win in Bills history. We know how all the other AFC championships ended. This one we wouldn’t. So it can probably be the biggest win in team history for at least 2 weeks.

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, Charles Romes said:

Thuney has now had a few games at left tackle and has done better than others for the chiefs out there, but at the expense of the run game.
 

More importantly, there is now plenty of tape of what Thuney struggles with at left tackle. Long arm Rousseau and Von should be making plays on short arm Thuney. 

 

Their locked on pod guy said yesterday don’t be surprised if they move Thuney back.  
 

I agree with him.  
 

Their offense is better running the ball with him at Guard.  They will want to be able to run it on us.  
 

Our DEs aren’t the matchup nightmare other teams may give them.   
 

But if it does happen - Rousseau absolutely needs to have the game of his life.  

[zow2]

6 minutes ago, PoundingDog said:

3 Heavy weights in AFC, Chiefs, Bills , Ravens. Bills have to go thru two them. 

 

Bills lost to Ravens on the road by more than 2 score in regular season. Ravens came into Buffalo in the playoff looking like the better team and lost, barely.

 

The Chiefs lost to Bills on the road by 2 scores in regular season. The Bills now have to go KC for AFC Championship. The Chiefs player were seething about earlier loss as reported, just like the Bills' players were last week preparing for the Ravens.

 

I've thought about the revenge factor and made a big deal last week to mention how great McDermott is in revenge games.  And Sean came through again vs Baltimore.  I agree KC, Reid and Mahomes are the same way.  They lose to Buffalo in the regular season and get all amped up to beat us in the playoffs. They have that extra edge for having lost earlier. 

 

This game, however, does feel different.  I think all those playoff heartbreaks for the Bills will finally negate any "revenge" factor for KC.  The Bills are going to come out and play like a bunch of rabid dogs for 60 minutes.  We hope that's enough and that they play a clean game like last week.  

[26TrapDraw]

Cynthia Freelund was saying last. Ight that no Rapp or no Benford. ( she was looking rough too by the way) is this true? Is it confirmed?

[dorquemada]

20 hours ago, stlbills13 said:

Bishop having a whole week of prep in that spot gives me a little more confidence. But man we just gotta get to Mahomes on Sunday 

 

The glass half full version of this is that Bishop is a bit of an unknown quantity for KC and really us as well.  He'll probably give up some stuff but it wouldn't surprise me to see him make a couple plays as well

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

This week, Allen should have  called up Peyton Manning and ask about his psychology when he finally won a playoff game vs Brady. We have the Chiefs at a good time - them being weak overall on the offensive side. This is the year we must beat them. 

I don’t think Allen has been the issue. Maybe we need a group therapy session for the defense to not choke.

 

11 minutes ago, 26TrapDraw said:

Cynthia Freelund was saying last. Ight that no Rapp or no Benford. ( she was looking rough too by the way) is this true? Is it confirmed?

I would be very surprised if Rapp plays. Benford is already in the final stages of concussion protocol. He should play IMO.

Edited Friday at 02:32 PM by DapperCam

[Charles Romes]

25 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Their locked on pod guy said yesterday don’t be surprised if they move Thuney back.  
 

I agree with him.  
 

Their offense is better running the ball with him at Guard.  They will want to be able to run it on us.  
 

Our DEs aren’t the matchup nightmare other teams may give them.   
 

But if it does happen - Rousseau absolutely needs to have the game of his life.  

That sounds good on paper, and yes, all their bloggers desperately want Humphries at LT - as bad as Humphries has been - so their run game is not impacted in addition to having substandard LT play.

 

But Mahomes, who is ultimately calling the shots on this issue, is said to be much more comfortable with Thuney manning the blindside.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

16 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I don’t think Allen has been the issue. Maybe we need a group therapy session for the defense to not choke.

 

I would be very surprised if Rapp plays. Benford is already in the final stages of concussion protocol. He should play IMO.

Benford has two more days to clear concussion protocol. 

 

He has to be late Stage 3 or 4 you'd think by the video. 

 

[NewEra]

29 minutes ago, 26TrapDraw said:

Cynthia Freelund was saying last. Ight that no Rapp or no Benford. ( she was looking rough too by the way) is this true? Is it confirmed?

She said Benford is out?  🤔 I doubt that she has any info we don’t have.

 

she’s been looking rough since birth