AFC Championship Game Week Thread - Bills at Chiefs

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

It’s not the same going the other way, though.  The Chiefs live and die with the blitz.  Spagnuolo is the GOAT at designing exotic blitzes from any position on the field.  Kansas City can and will blitz early and often.  If he can help it, McDermott won’t blitz at all because Mahomes thrives against them.

 

The way to slow Mahomes is to drop as many defenders into coverage as possible while still getting some pressure on him.  When he’s struggled, it’s almost always been when teams dropped 8 and his receivers still couldn’t get open.

Correct me if I'm wrong- But didn't Houston blitz a fair amount last week? 
 

I know for sure they did at times and it definitely gave the chiefs some problems. (Including the play with the "roughing the passer" call when Mahomes missed Kelce)

 

I just don't know the frequency at the top of my head in which they did it

[Simon]

4 hours ago, boyst said:

jst saw this and it is spot on. he was looking all over, head on a swivel and over thinking/asked to do too much. babich should have noticed this, so should mcdermott.

 

i expect this week to be different. i expect some 4-3 packages - and even some dime with cam lewis coming in over milano (if banged up) and/or bernard. cam lewis showed he can stick with kelce last year.

 

Yeah, I can't think of any other reason for him to suddenly look hesitant out there.

They were mixing and matching a lot of looks on the fly and all the presnap calculating probably had him worried about mistakes enough that it sapped his juice.

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

If Buffalo can’t get pressure with the front 4, they will lose.

The Bills had quite a bit of success blitzing Lamar (I think he was 5-12 for 80 when blitzed), so why are you so sure that won’t work against KC?

[Simon]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I got no quarrel with calling him the 2nd best LB on the field to Milano.  I thought Milano looked closer than ever to his old self and just hope his trip to the Blue Tent wasn't anything serious, along with Bernard's trip and the shots of him using the Theragun on the sidelines.

 

As far as Dorian Williams, the guy only played 24 snaps.  When you got a guy who is playing Left Bench 60% of the snaps against a physical, large offense like the Ravens, comparing him to a guy who is on the field Every Defensive Snap is a rigged comparison IMO.

 

I get the degree of difficulty thing, but when he was on teh field Williams was in full beast mode. I thought it was his best game as a Bill by an appreciable margin.

One guys worst game ever vs another guys best game ever seemed like something worthy of note.

[dpberr]

I'd expect the Chiefs to sell out against the run and make the Bills receivers win this game.  See something like some antique 4-4 defense that'll take the Bills time to counter.  Extremely vulnerable to the pass, but it'll stop the run, even with the sixth lineman.  

 

I hope the Bills come into this game with a fresh defense game plan with schemes/packages the Chiefs haven't seen on film.  The Chiefs are like the Patriots of old, they are experts at studying film and learning from it.  

[90sBills]

6 minutes ago, Billl said:

It’s not the same going the other way, though.  The Chiefs live and die with the blitz.  Spagnuolo is the GOAT at designing exotic blitzes from any position on the field.  Kansas City can and will blitz early and often.  If he can help it, McDermott won’t blitz at all because Mahomes thrives against them.

 

The way to slow Mahomes is to drop as many defenders into coverage as possible while still getting some pressure on him.  When he’s struggled, it’s almost always been when teams dropped 8 and his receivers still couldn’t get open.

So you think Allen is bad against the blitz? Spags sends blitzes when they can’t get enough pressure from the front four. If they can generate adequate pressure I’m sure he’d rather have the extra guy go back in coverage. As would any good D coordinator. 
 

What Spags is good at is mixing up where pressure comes from. It looks like a blitz but when you watch it again a DLinemen drops back in coverage while a db has rushed. If Sqags has to send extra guys for pressure KC will lose for sure. 

[Simon]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

About 45 seconds before the forced fumble, I texted a high school friend group (all knowledgeable bills fans) and said, “terrell bernard is having a pretty bad game.” One minute later i wrote, “i take that back!” Agree with what you say above.

 

Did they agree or were they too busy having enormous amounts of fun at your expense? - )

 

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Simon said:

 

Did they agree or were they too busy having enormous amounts of fun at your expense? - )

 

Two things can happen at the same time, and they did!

[Simon]

1 hour ago, Carptom1 said:

To answer your question, Cooper cannot beat Jalen Watson or Mcduffie.

 

He may not be able to beat Watson over the top, but he can absolutely beat him off the line.

The guy still runs magnificent routes.

[Billl]

17 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong- But didn't Houston blitz a fair amount last week? 

No, they have possibly the best pass rushing D-line in the game, and they whipped us up front with them.  

[uninja]

I just know Von Miller has 1, maybe 2, extremely timely sacks in him for this game.

 

We paid him for this exact moment. 

[BillsFan130]

7 minutes ago, Billl said:

No, they have possibly the best pass rushing D-line in the game, and they whipped us up front with them.  

Just googled some stats and saw some clips of the Texans game.

 

Good mix of 4 and 5 man pressures from Houston .

Mahomes passer rating against the blitz since week 12, is 81.6 (25th in the nfl) and 32nd in completion percentage at 56.3 percent.

 

I definitely stand by my original point even more after seeing those stats- Bills definitely have to send some 5 man pressures in some key situations- As it has given Mahomes a lot of issues the last 6 games or so 

[Billl]

13 minutes ago, mannc said:

The Bills had quite a bit of success blitzing Lamar (I think he was 5-12 for 80 when blitzed), so why are you so sure that won’t work against KC?

Lamar and Mahomes are two very different players with different strengths and weaknesses.  Mahomes is much closer to Brady between the ears.  He’s nearly impossible to confuse, and he processes things instantaneously.  Lamar…does not.

 

10 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

So you think Allen is bad against the blitz? Spags sends blitzes when they can’t get enough pressure from the front four. If they can generate adequate pressure I’m sure he’d rather have the extra guy go back in coverage. As would any good D coordinator. 
 

What Spags is good at is mixing up where pressure comes from. It looks like a blitz but when you watch it again a DLinemen drops back in coverage while a db has rushed. If Sqags has to send extra guys for pressure KC will lose for sure. 

No, I don’t think Allen is bad against them blitz.  In fact, he’s not bad against anything.  That’s not really the point, though.  Spags is going to blitz him because that’s what Spags does.  If KC gets pressure with their front 4, he’s still going to blitz.  

 

You’re definitely right about his willingness to drop DEs (and even a DT every now and again, LOL) into coverage to replace a blitzing DB.  He’s an absolute madman in that regard.  If Josh can keep his composure against that crowd and those blitzes all the while knowing that the champs are coming for his soul, Buffalo is going to win.  As a Chiefs fan, it’s a very real concern.  

[billsherd]

 

[freddyjj]

2 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

Denver and Baltimore had all the defensive stats that look nice and are fun to talk about.  The Chiefs defense is better than both.  If the chiefs decide to shut down the run early in the game I believe they can do it.  Kyle Hamilton said after the game sunday that Buffalo ran the same play, Duo, like ten times in a row and they just didn't stop.  This sounds a lot like what Denver said the week before, Buffalo surprised them with how good their run game is and cook was so patient and finding the hole.  I think the chiefs are better than both defenses and will not allow the bills to get those big runs in the first half that has been the calling card of this season. 

I remember Chiefs shut Cook down in mid-Nov game and Bills only got to 103 total rushing  yards on Josh's TD run for the last TD. 

 

The Chiefs have struggled versus the run since late NOV game vs Raiders up through Houston Playoff game.  In their last 6 games (not counting last regular season game of KC backups  vs Broncos) the Chiefs have given up 5.33 ypc on 147 opponent rushes for 784 yards.  The Raiders, Browns, Steelers and Texans all put up big yards rushing on the Chiefs.  In 2 games, including their playoff game, the Texans put up 233 Yards total on 46 carries for a 5 Yd Average.  

 

The Bills hardly used their 6 man rotation in 1st game vs Chiefs as the higher usage rate came after their week 12 bye.  The Bills will run on KC and that will cause stress on their coverage if Brady uses Play Action out of the Jumbo formation.  The TEs and RBs should be open.

Edited 3 hours ago by freddyjj

[Goin Breakdown]

46 minutes ago, Breakout Squad said:

How is that real?

Looks photoshopped right!?  It all just makes me realize how out of shape I am. 
 

 

as if I could ever jump anyway haha

Edited 3 hours ago by Goin Breakdown

[Toledo Bill]

2 hours ago, Billl said:

If Buffalo can’t get pressure with the front 4, they will lose.

Not just pressure, but contain. Kermit very smoothly avoids rushes and does a lot of damage moving around (and with the occasional "protected" run).

[90sBills]

39 minutes ago, Billl said:

 

No, I don’t think Allen is bad against them blitz.  In fact, he’s not bad against anything.  That’s not really the point, though.  Spags is going to blitz him because that’s what Spags does.  If KC gets pressure with their front 4, he’s still going to blitz.  

 

You’re definitely right about his willingness to drop DEs (and even a DT every now and again, LOL) into coverage to replace a blitzing DB.  He’s an absolute madman in that regard.  If Josh can keep his composure against that crowd and those blitzes all the while knowing that the champs are coming for his soul, Buffalo is going to win.  As a Chiefs fan, it’s a very real concern.  

Yeah that’s for sure. But he’s selective with those blitzes. They’re usually on critical 3rd/4th down situations. The majority of the time he relies on Chris Jones and gang to disrupt the offensive timing. 

[dayman]

1 hour ago, dpberr said:

I'd expect the Chiefs to sell out against the run and make the Bills receivers win this game.  See something like some antique 4-4 defense that'll take the Bills time to counter.  Extremely vulnerable to the pass, but it'll stop the run, even with the sixth lineman.  

 

I hope the Bills come into this game with a fresh defense game plan with schemes/packages the Chiefs haven't seen on film.  The Chiefs are like the Patriots of old, they are experts at studying film and learning from it.  

lol

 

i would love to play against a 4-4

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

I get the degree of difficulty thing, but when he was on teh field Williams was in full beast mode. I thought it was his best game as a Bill by an appreciable margin.

One guys worst game ever vs another guys best game ever seemed like something worthy of note.

 

But, analogous to McDermott's insistence on DL rotation - if a guy knows he's only gonna be in for a play or two then out, he can go differently than if he's playing every snap.

 

And not sure I agree at all "worst game ever" or even "worst game since he became a starter last year"