AFC Championship Game Week Thread - Bills at Chiefs

[Beck Water]

51 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Will the Bills need to improve on what they showed last week to win , is the question I’ve been reflecting on … I think so … the Chiefs won’t be spotting you +3 on the turnovers , and Kelce won’t be spilling his lollies like Andrew’s did…

 

I think "improve on what they showed last week" is a fairly meaningless way of looking at it.

 

The Ravens were billed (see what I did there?) as having an "unstoppable" offense centered on success in a power run game with DerrickHenry and misdirection with RPOs; on defense, having a league-leading rush defense in Y/R, being 2nd in the league in sacks and having improved their pass D over the last 7 games of the season with a lot of very sticky, physical coverage.

 

The Bills countered by playing to physically controlling the LOS on both sides of the ball against larger and stronger lines.  It worked well enough.

 

The Chiefs pose a different set of problems on both offense and defense, so the Bills will need a different strategy to attack them. 

 

I don't think we're gonna see 32% base defense against the Chiefs.  

Edited 12 hours ago by Beck Water

[TNBills]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think "improve on what they showed last week" is a fairly meaningless way of looking at it.

 

The Ravens were billed (see what I did there?) as having an "unstoppable" offense centered on success in a power run game with Travis Henry and misdirection with RPOs; on defense, having a league-leading rush defense in Y/R, being 2nd in the league in sacks and having improved their pass D over the last 7 games of the season with a lot of very sticky, physical coverage.

 

The Bills countered by playing to physically controlling the LOS on both sides of the ball against larger and stronger lines.  It worked well enough.

 

The Chiefs pose a different set of problems on both offense and defense, so the Bills will need a different strategy to attack them. 

 

I don't think we're gonna see 32% base defense against the Chiefs.  

I think you mean Derrick Henry, but agree with the rest.

[MikePJ76]

Posting an article i just read in the athletic.  Seems the chiefs defensive players are determined to stop the bills offense.  They are not dumb enough to say things like the bills offense is simple like roquan smith but they are really working this we are going to show them stuff already.

 

Chiefs defensive failures against the bills the last time will fuel them in the afc title game.

 

Nate Taylor 
 

 

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Minutes after their first loss this season, the Chiefs’ mood inside the visitors’ locker room at Highmark Stadium was split.

On one side of the room was the offense, a quiet group. Several veterans reflected on the missed opportunities and self-inflicted mistakes that contributed to the 30-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills.

 

On the other side, the defense was furious. Linebacker Drue Tranquill’s facial expression was one of anger. Safety Justin Reid was also seething. Linebacker Leo Chenal, though, said he would use his frustration as fuel.

“We want to remember this, possibly the next time we play them,” Chenal said. “We’ll definitely remember the feeling and how much it hurts.”

The Chiefs will get the rematch — with revenge on the agenda for both teams — Sunday night when the Bills visit Arrowhead Stadium for the AFC Championship Game.

The Bills, the Chiefs’ most consistent AFC challenger in the last five years, stand in the way of Kansas City’s search of an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl victory. The two-time defending champs will try to eliminate the Bills from the postseason for the fourth time in five years.

 

 

The Chiefs’ defenders understand they have to play better against the Bills’ potent offense, led by quarterback Josh Allen, in two categories: the fundamentals and on third down.

“It opens your eyes to how little margin of error is allowed in big games,” linebacker Nick Bolton said Nov. 17, the night of the first matchup. “Three or four mistakes in a game can lead to 16 or 20 points.”

Allen’s heroic touchdown with less than three minutes left in the fourth quarter in November will be replayed often this week. On the fourth-and-2 snap from the Chiefs’ 26-yard line, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo made the correct play call, and his players executed it well — at first. Allen likely was expecting man coverage, so the Chiefs changed it up, playing zone.

Defensive end George Karlaftis made the first mistake. He used a speed rush to gain a step on backup right tackle Ryan Van Demark but lost his pass-rush lane integrity, which should have helped contain Allen in the pocket. The same thing happened to pass rusher Chris Jones in a one-on-one matchup against right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, creating a scrambling opportunity for Allen to thwart the Chiefs’ coverage.

 

Allen sprinted past defensive tackle Mike Pennel, Tranquill and cornerback Nazeeh Johnson before reaching the end zone. Allen had just a 1.2 percent chance of scoring once he tucked the ball to run, according to Next Gen Stats. It was Allen’s first scramble touchdown run against the Chiefs in his seven-year career.

At the time, Allen’s touchdown also snapped one of the Chiefs’ most impressive streaks. They surrendered 30 points for the first time since Super Bowl LVII.

“In this game, when you go back and look at the tape, we should’ve kept them under 30 (points) as well,” Bolton said. “We had some (mental errors), some missed tackles and (allowed) leaky yards. It’s everything we can clean up.”

 

Before Allen’s memorable score, the Chiefs struggled with fundamentals — a lack of communication, poor open-field tackling and costly penalties.

In just his third career start, Johnson struggled in coverage, surrendering nine receptions for 103 yards, including a touchdown, on 12 targets as the nearest defender, according to Pro Football Focus. Safety Chamarri Conner made the defense’s lone highlight, an interception, but he had several lowlights in the second half that led to the Bills’ two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The entire unit missed a season-high 13 tackles, according to Pro Football Focus.

The biggest defensive statistic that coach Andy Reid noticed from the first meeting was that the Bills converted nine of their 15 snaps on third down.

 

Late in the third quarter, the Chiefs trailed the Bills by two points when Allen faced a third-and-9 snap from Buffalo’s 18-yard line. Spagnuolo didn’t blitz Allen, instead having the secondary play man coverage. Conner grabbed the left arm of receiver Curtis Samuel before the ball arrived, committing a pass-interference penalty.

 

A few plays later, Allen declined to throw an intermediate pass into the Chiefs’ zone coverage. He instead completed a short swing pass behind the line of scrimmage to receiver Khalil Shakir, who made Conner miss an open-field tackle near the sideline. Shakir gained 22 yards, Allen’s longest completion of the second half.

“You’ve got to be able to get off the field,” Reid said Monday. “We keep stressing that. You’ve got to take care of those third downs, especially when you’ve worked so hard to put yourself in a good position.”

The Chiefs defense and the Bills offense should have reinforcements ready for Sunday’s rematch. Spagnuolo is expected to use cornerback Jaylen Watson and defensive end Charles Omenihu and the Bills are expected to counter with right tackle Spencer Brown and rookie receiver Keon Coleman, all players who missed the first matchup because of injury.

 

During the Chiefs’ win in the AFC’s divisional round over the Houston Texans, Watson played 40 defensive snaps in his first game since Week 7, when he broke his left leg. Watson recorded a pass breakup and a tackle against the Texans. He played well enough that Spagnuolo was free to use All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to limit the production of Nico Collins, Houston’s best receiver. McDuffie lined up across from Collins on 22 of his 32 routes (68.8 percent), allowing just two receptions for 42 yards, according to Next Gen Stats.

 

'It's not normal': Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs make it 7 straight AFC title games

In late October, Watson asked his surgeon, Dr. Robert Anderson, if he could return in time for the Chiefs’ postseason run. Anderson told Watson that his chances were slim.

 

“That’s when I knew I’d be able to play again,” Watson said. “You just wake up each day and try to do the most you can (during the rehab). That’s what I did. Since my rookie year, we always knew there’s a chance at winning the Super Bowl. We’ve just got to take advantage of the opportunities and not beat ourselves.”

The Chiefs’ pass rush has steadily improved since the loss to the Bills. Omenihu returned to the lineup in late November, giving Spagnuolo another versatile pass rusher.

The pass-rushing plan against the Texans led to the Chiefs sacking quarterback C.J. Stroud eight times. Spagnuolo’s blitzes gave Stroud little time to find his receivers, too. The Chiefs created 12 pressures and three sacks on 17 blitzes (70.6 percent pressure rate), including eight of the pressures generated by an unblocked pass rusher, according to Next Gen Stats. Karlaftis led the Chiefs with three sacks.

“Spags has done a good job, but the players also have to step up,” Reid said. “I’m so proud of them for that. … George had a big day, just being as relentless as he is and how much work he puts into the game. It’s been great to have Charles in there. That helps.”

Four days before facing the Texans, Omenihu shared that he has a strong reputation once the calendar turns to January. He proved it in the second quarter Saturday. Omenihu produced a quick strip-sack on Stroud on a third-and-5 snap, the play before Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn missed a 55-yard field goal attempt. In 12 playoff games, Omenihu has 5 1/2 sacks, 10 quarterback hits and four forced fumbles.

 

Omenihu spent more than half of the regular season rehabbing after tearing the ACL in his right knee in last year’s AFC Championship Game against the Baltimore Ravens. Before the injury, Omenihu flashed his speed from the edge and strip-sacked quarterback Lamar Jackson, a fumble that Karlaftis recovered.

Omenihu hopes to make a similar play Sunday against the Bills. After all, Omenihu knows that Allen was the lone quarterback the Chiefs failed to sack this season.

“I hang my hat on playing well (on) the biggest stages,” Omenihu said after Saturday’s game. “I’ve done that for the last four years. I’m just blessed to be able to do that, I’m blessed to be on a team that’s in this position and be in that position to make those types of plays. A sack is cool, but being able to take the ball off a quarterback is something that the great players do. I just want to keep doing that.”

[T.E.]

Man, I wish the conference championship games were still at 1 and 4 PM EST. 

 

6:30 start time sucks - ensures that i won't be able to even think about sleeping until after midnight, regardless of outcome.

[DJB]

Just win. Get the W. 
 

It’s our time 

[That's No Moon]

How am I supposed to be productive this week?

[Fan in Chicago]

54 minutes ago, Dukestreetking said:

 

As someone who was/is a clever professor, but who spent 10+ years in the (recent) wars: 

Sometimes, ya gotta absolutely--no sh*t, right goddamn now--pick your side, and start slitting fuc*king throats..

 

I knew a professor like you. I always submitted my assignments on time . 

[Beck Water]

24 minutes ago, TNBills said:

I think you mean Derrick Henry, but agree with the rest.

 

Drrrrr.  I'd like to blame "lack of coffee" but in truth, I'm good there.

Edited 12 hours ago by Beck Water

[PaattMaann]

10 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:

How am I supposed to be productive this week?

 

I am a teacher and its Regents week, no students, we just eat soup all week...and digest constant Bills content. Its honestly heaven. 

[YattaOkasan]

58 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

Yes it's on ESPN Chiefs/Texans box score.  https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401671884

Thanks.  I was referring to when Bills/Chiefs played earlier. Against the Texans Kelce had a big day cause Al Shaair could/would not stay with him.  Conversely when we played KC, TB was leaving his coverage responsibilities at times to guard Kelce.  TB's focus on Kelce is why Gray had a fair bit of impact (2 first down catches, 2 TDs on 5 targets).  Will be interesting to see what happens this coming week.

[That's No Moon]

3 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

I am a teacher and its Regents week, no students, we just eat soup all week...and digest constant Bills content. Its honestly heaven. 

It's the last week of the marking period for me. No Regents in this backwater though.

[FLFan]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Gotta put in a word for my guy Bernard.

 

If you watch the Cover1 piece on the D, they don't mention it, but Bernard is all over the place before the snap, re-aligning the players.

 

There's no question in my mind that Terrell Bernard is the beat of the Bills defensive heart.

 

And Jesus Christ, where were the officials?  Ravens OL was clotheslining our DTs all day.  Ed Oliver and BigJ musta had ropeburns on their necks after the game.

 

Totally agree on Bernard.  He is a difference maker and is finally healthy it seems.  As for the officiating, there were numerous penalties that could have been called throughout the game, on both sides.  Thee was an early phantom holding call on Dawkins which was huge, and a very questionable PI call on Tre White later which looked like a make up call.  Otherwise the officials stayed largely out of it which is how it should be.  

[BearNorth]

36 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Thanks.  I was referring to when Bills/Chiefs played earlier. Against the Texans Kelce had a big day cause Al Shaair could/would not stay with him.  Conversely when we played KC, TB was leaving his coverage responsibilities at times to guard Kelce.  TB's focus on Kelce is why Gray had a fair bit of impact (2 first down catches, 2 TDs on 5 targets).  Will be interesting to see what happens this coming week.

We do have a chess piece named Milano that we didn't have in the first game.  Thought he played almost to form vs. Ravens.

[Steptide]

I feel better about beating kc than I did the Ravens. However it's the Chiefs, and they always find a way, plus we all know if any bills players look at Mahomes the wrong way, they'll give kc an extra 15 yards automatically. Just really really hoping McDermott has a plan they don't see coming 

[wppete]

Any injury report yet? Anyone out other than Rapp? 

[Simon]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Say more.  I assume you have some basis for this?

 

I thought he was out of position frequently which put him in bad situations he couldn't recover from.

I thought he was indecisive at times and it caused him to be reactive instead of proactive and resulted in blockers getting on top of him so that he couldn't disengage.

I thought he made some poor decisions in zone coverage that took himself out of the areas of the field the Ravens wanted to attack.

From my couch, he was the third best LB on the field that night and was clearly outplayed by Dorian Williams, imo. And that is coming from a guy who is not a huge fan of Williams.

 

Full disclosure: I had a house full of Raven-hating Steelers fans here and was inhaling beers for the first time since Christmas Eve so feel free to take this with a grain of salt (and a lime wedge).

[Simon]

1 hour ago, RiotAct said:

that forced fumble was a thing of beauty though 

 

The result was great, but it was pretty lucky, imo.

Bernard had run himself out of position again, this time into somebody else's zone I thought, completely vacating the middle of the field.

Then he was in the process of overrunning Edwards and was forced to make a desperation lunge at the ball, which only worked because Andrews hadn't secured it properly.

And to top it off when the ball took a lucky bounce right into his arms, he didn't take advantage of that good fortune and try to advance it when he was surrounded by blockers and his offense was struggling in a tight game in the 4th qrtr.

I really like the kid but thought he just had a very tough night.

[appoo]

2 hours ago, zow2 said:

I'm concerned about Worthy.  He's going to get behind our guys.  Mahomes missed him on a bomb TD by like half yard vs Houston.  I think he just missed him on a bomb in our game.  They are going to connect one of these times.  The Chiefs offense has been a little off most of the season but they have some guys.

Damar had a rare miss against the Ravens in coverage, but also with Rapp back, Damar is probably closer to the LOS where his skill set is a better fit

[VaMilBill]

Really hoping our defense can get hyped for this matchup like we did against the Ravens. Obviously hoping we have Benford, Milano and Rapp all available 

[ExiledInIllinois]

1 hour ago, TNBills said:

I think you mean Derrick Henry, but agree with the rest.

Yeah... What's Travis doing?  Have they fixed him yet!😆