That FG Decision by McDermott

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, stlbills13 said:

On the opposite end. Imagine going for 2 twice and not going to Henry either time 

If the Ravens have 3 guys that blew the game for them they were Jackson, Andrews and Harbaugh.

 

I disagree with almost the whole sequence by the goal line.  You needed to score a TD and go win the game.  There was way too much time with our gash-able defense to not go up two scores. The FG and game worked out, but not with a ton of luck.  
 

I would like to see a significantly larger playbook by the goal line.  Why not load up the box and when let Josh bootleg for example if you don’t want to do two straight tush pushes?  
 

I understand the FG decision to go up eight, but screwed up to force that decision.

[Cash]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And the Ravens were down to 1 timeout. All things considered it made sense.

 

EDIT: also worth saying, the 2 point conversion rate is waaaay down in 2024. I always thought the more teams went for 2 the lower the success rate would be. It is at 31% for the year. Now the Ravens should have made that play, and the Bills got away with one, but another reason to feel good about going up 8. 

That's one of the things that’s bothered me about the analytics-driven insistence to go for it more: they’re assuming a fixed rate of 2pt success. But historically, teams were very rarely going for 2, and typically had either one or two “2 point plays” in their game plan for a given week. Basically your best play that you think will get you those few yards if your guys don’t screw up. And if you don’t go for 2 that game (or don’t need to use it for a crucial 4th and short), you keep that 2pt play in reserve for next week, so that teams don’t have tape on it. There’s no way that success rate under those conditions is sustainable with heavy increases in attempts. 
 

NOTE: That’s not to say that teams were getting it right in the past. The analytics movement has correctly highlighted that coaches were being too conservative in both 2 pointers and especially 4th down decisions. My point is that the attempts to quantify the optimal decisions are based on incorrect assumptions, and many of the people using these models appear to have no ability to question their model’s assumptions, and never acknowledge the error inherent to all modeling. In short, they have a point but they take it too far. 

[Tulsabillsfanz]

I agree McDermott made the right decision on 4th down. I do think the spot on Josh’s run was bad. We should’ve had 3rd & 1.  Then it would’ve been tush push TD time. I do wonder if the helmet to helmet shot that #44 gave Josh earlier in the game made Brady shy away from the tush push on 3rd & 2.

 

As far as play calling, I found the coaches halftime comments interesting.  Harbaugh said Baltimore must stop the run in the second half. They did sell out and they did stop the run in the second half.  McDermott said the game is far from over & Buffalo can’t let up. He said we have to control the line of scrimmage.  I thought Brady’s second half play calling was very different than the first half. I thought he called it defensively from the first drive on. I don’t know if he recognized that Baltimore WAS selling out to stop the run in the second half, but he didn’t adjust the play calling to reflect that.

 

I do believe Josh would’ve led us to victory on the last drive if Andrews made that catch. I’m also glad my heart didn’t have to go through that!   It’s nice to win a game where the opponent gained 100+ more yards than us. I believe that’s pretty rare for Buffalo.   Now, let’s slay the dragon & get on to the Super Bowl! 

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, Cash said:

That's one of the things that’s bothered me about the analytics-driven insistence to go for it more: they’re assuming a fixed rate of 2pt success. But historically, teams were very rarely going for 2, and typically had either one or two “2 point plays” in their game plan for a given week. Basically your best play that you think will get you those few yards if your guys don’t screw up. And if you don’t go for 2 that game (or don’t need to use it for a crucial 4th and short), you keep that 2pt play in reserve for next week, so that teams don’t have tape on it. There’s no way that success rate under those conditions is sustainable with heavy increases in attempts. 
 

NOTE: That’s not to say that teams were getting it right in the past. The analytics movement has correctly highlighted that coaches were being too conservative in both 2 pointers and especially 4th down decisions. My point is that the attempts to quantify the optimal decisions are based on incorrect assumptions, and many of the people using these models appear to have no ability to question their model’s assumptions, and never acknowledge the error inherent to all modeling. In short, they have a point but they take it too far. 

 

Agree. And it was always swayed by the fact that the only teams who ever went for 2 in non "gotta have it" 4th Quarter situations were the teams with great QBs. Because guess what, when you have Brady or Big Ben (remember the Steelers were an early adopter) your chances of executing a 2 yard play are higher than if you have EJ Manuel or Blaine Gabbert. Once the analytics moved the dial and it basically became the go to play any time you score down 8 or any time you score and have a chance to go up an additional score by getting 8 pretty much at any point in the game and every team whoever then QB began to pivot that way then that was another factor likely to drag the "make it" percentage down and affect the math. 

[T master]

HOLY S**T McD gets a ATTA BOY WRITE THIS DOWN .... 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

4 hours ago, bmur66 said:

Kicking the field goal was the right call and quit calling it the "tush push". That's gay.

 

Was the right call after the 3rd down call.  The 3rd down call was the problem when you are "Right There".  

[Mikey]

13 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

13 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

 

13 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

13 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

13 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

13 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Was the best and most important call of his career.

 

Everybody loves this unrelenting aggression on 4th down and McD shows a ton of it, arguably the second most after Dan Campbell. There’s also the common sense inclination that you let your best player win the game.

 

But the strategy of this game comes down to probability even when it’s boring.  Make your opponent be perfect.  You go up by 8 points, make them score the TD AND the 2 point conversion AND stop your final drive afterward.  Worst case scenario you take it to OT and accept your 50/50 odds there.  
 

It’s like making a big fold at a poker tournament with your two pair on a board with straights and flushes possible.  Not fun, but right.  

 

He made that decision with an entire city, many of whom hate him, watching over his shoulder.  Well done, coach.

The FG call was the right call. Have to take the FG there. It was one of McDermott saving graces in an otherwise terribly called game. The 3rd down call directly before the FG was a horrible one. Don’t have Josh in shotgun in that situation and just stack the line to move the ball forward on that play to either score TD or see how much ground you get for the 4th down call-

Edited 21 hours ago by Mikey

[I'mBuff]

12 hours ago, Dick_Cheney said:

It was the correct call.

 

I am not sure the third down offensive playcall was.

This for sure, nobody could say it any better than that.

[ddaryl]

I think they should of gone tush push on the 3rd down play and see how much they could get. But when they lost a yard they had no choice but to kick the FG and force the Ravens to be perfect, and they were not. 

Heart was in my throat the whole game.

[Rockpile233]

I was arguing with everyone in my section who was panning the call to kick. Going up 8 was too significant especially after they had went backwards on third down. 

[Jauronimo]

12 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

The correct call came right after a terrible call..3rd and goal shotgun QB keeper up the gut was dumb AF. 

Pretty sure Allen called his own number on that one.  Not sure if that was the original play call.

7 minutes ago, Mikey said:

The FG call was the right call. Have to take the FG there. It was one of McDermott saving graces in an otherwise terribly called game. The 3rd down call directly before the FG was a horrible one. Don’t have Josh in shotgun in that situation and just stack the line to move the ball forward on that play to either score TD or see how much ground you get for the 4th down call-

The FG call was the right call. Have to take the FG there. It was one of McDermott saving graces in an otherwise terribly called game. The 3rd down call directly before the FG was a horrible one. Don’t have Josh in shotgun in that situation and just stack the line to move the ball forward on that play to either score TD or see how much ground you get for the 4th down call-

The FG call was the right call. Have to take the FG there. It was one of McDermott saving graces in an otherwise terribly called game. The 3rd down call directly before the FG was a horrible one. Don’t have Josh in shotgun in that situation and just stack the line to move the ball forward on that play to either score TD or see how much ground you get for the 4th down call-

The FG call was the right call. Have to take the FG there. It was one of McDermott saving graces in an otherwise terribly called game. The 3rd down call directly before the FG was a horrible one. Don’t have Josh in shotgun in that situation and just stack the line to move the ball forward on that play to either score TD or see how much ground you get for the 4th down call-

The FG call was the right call. Have to take the FG there. It was one of McDermott saving graces in an otherwise terribly called game. The 3rd down call directly before the FG was a horrible one. Don’t have Josh in shotgun in that situation and just stack the line to move the ball forward on that play to either score TD or see how much ground you get for the 4th down call-

The FG call was the right call. Have to take the FG there. It was one of McDermott saving graces in an otherwise terribly called game. The 3rd down call directly before the FG was a horrible one. Don’t have Josh in shotgun in that situation and just stack the line to move the ball forward on that play to either score TD or see how much ground you get for the 4th down call-

Mikey Six Times just doesn't have the same charm. You're forcing it, Mikey.

[mannc]

Kicking the FG was the correct decision, but that whole goal line sequence was disturbing.  
 

First, Allen absolutely made it to the half yard line on the second down run and yet the ball was somehow spotted at the 2.  We had 3 timeouts; use one to challenge that ridiculous spot.  Then, if challenge fails, run a damn QB sneak on 3d down from the 2.  Even if you don’t score, you’re inside the 1 and another sneak for a TD is almost automatic.  Just a really poor sequence where points were left on the field in a crucial situation.

Edited 22 hours ago by mannc

[Mikey]

😀😀😀

 

Just wrote it once. How the heck did that repeat so many times? Must’ve pressed “submit reply” too hard.

 

Did Josh call that shotgun formation?

 

wherever came from was dumb call on 3rd in that situation because basically sets it up if that play doesn’t go in end zone it is FG call on 4th.

 

Im fine with FG on 4th because even if ravens tie it Bills had 1:33 to score and Win-

 

 

 

 

[fergie's ire]

13 hours ago, Mikie's Bills said:

Looking at the replay on the 2nd down run by Josh it looked like the ball should've been spotted at the 1. 

 

Wouldn't have minded McDermott challenging the spot of the ball. If it's at the 1 instead of the 2 I think we for sure tush push twice to try and get the score.

I've seen a lot of people saying McDermott should've challenged the spot of the ball.  My understanding is that is not challengeable as it's considered a judgment call.  He could've challenged that it should've been a touchdown (which is challengeable) even though it clearly wasn't.  I did see a case recently (don't remember where) that a coach challenged whether a player made the first down.  Replay showed that while the player went down short of the marker, he was closer than the previous spot.  The coach lost the challenge, but the spot was corrected.  Could McDermott have done this when it was obvious he would lose the challenge (and a timeout) just to get an improved spot?  I'm not sure.

[Mikey]

Fixed it!!!

[Cash]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. And it was always swayed by the fact that the only teams who ever went for 2 in non "gotta have it" 4th Quarter situations were the teams with great QBs. Because guess what, when you have Brady or Big Ben (remember the Steelers were an early adopter) your chances of executing a 2 yard play are higher than if you have EJ Manuel or Blaine Gabbert. Once the analytics moved the dial and it basically became the go to play any time you score down 8 or any time you score and have a chance to go up an additional score by getting 8 pretty much at any point in the game and every team whoever then QB began to pivot that way then that was another factor likely to drag the "make it" percentage down and affect the math. 

Great point. The historical database was highly self-selected: Non-desperation 2pt and 4th down attempts were heavily weighted towards teams with elite QBs, elite offenses, and significant mismatches in whichever game. That’s not exactly translatable to the NFL as a whole. 
 

(But it is translatable to a Josh Allen-led offense, which is why I’m glad McD has gotten a let better about going for it more.)

[TBBills Fan]

13 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Probably the whole reason we kicked that FG.  We ended up about 3 yards out after that run.  If we are 1 yard out they probably go for it.  

That's exactly what McD said in the presser. If it's 1 yard they go, 2 yards, he's got to decide and 3 yards kick the field goal

[DCofNC]

8 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

By kicking the field goal, McDermott is basically saying he's trusting his defence.

 

But it just contradicts his actions.

 

If they don't get it, he doesn't trust them to stop a 98 yard drive in 3 minutes?

Thats not what he’s saying at all, he’s saying he’s not an idiot.  Dan Campbell went home being one last year, you don’t go for the kill unless it’s a virtual guarantee.  You go up 8 and make it so the WORST possible outcome is overtime.  This was proper risk management.    As it stood, even if Baltimore did tie it, they would have done so with 1:32 on the clock and making the Bills go maybe 40 yards in that time with 3 time outs to get a FG attempt to win before overtime.  Everyone keeps acting like the game was lost if Andrews catches the ball, it most certainly wasn’t, the ball was back to Allen to go win it.

 

I have issue with how predictable the offense got in the second half and especially that 3rd and goal.  If they were going to do what everyone knew was coming, it should have been the rush push AND they should have challenged the play, claiming it was a TD and make them review the spot, which would have put it at the 1.  Better yet the idiots in NY should have called in the proper spot and they should have had it at the 1 and gone tush push, end the game.

[london_bills]

18 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

Was the best and most important call of his career.

 

Everybody loves this unrelenting aggression on 4th down and McD shows a ton of it, arguably the second most after Dan Campbell. There’s also the common sense inclination that you let your best player win the game.

 

But the strategy of this game comes down to probability even when it’s boring.  Make your opponent be perfect.  You go up by 8 points, make them score the TD AND the 2 point conversion AND stop your final drive afterward.  Worst case scenario you take it to OT and accept your 50/50 odds there.  
 

It’s like making a big fold at a poker tournament with your two pair on a board with straights and flushes possible.  Not fun, but right.  

 

He made that decision with an entire city, many of whom hate him, watching over his shoulder.  Well done, coach.

Completely agree here. I've heard people say why didn't they tush push on 3rd down and then possibly again, but I think on this occasion I think most people would agree he was right to kick the FG

[mannc]

6 hours ago, fergie's ire said:

I've seen a lot of people saying McDermott should've challenged the spot of the ball.  My understanding is that is not challengeable as it's considered a judgment call.  He could've challenged that it should've been a touchdown (which is challengeable) even though it clearly wasn't.  I did see a case recently (don't remember where) that a coach challenged whether a player made the first down.  Replay showed that while the player went down short of the marker, he was closer than the previous spot.  The coach lost the challenge, but the spot was corrected.  Could McDermott have done this when it was obvious he would lose the challenge (and a timeout) just to get an improved spot?  I'm not sure.

This is not quite correct, but I'll admit, the rule is a bit unclear.  As I understand it, you can challenge a spot if the challenge relates to whether you got a first down, or if it involves the goal line.  Sometimes a challenge may be unsuccessful--when review shows that the ball was short of the first down marker--which causes the challenging team to lose a timeout, but the ball is nonetheless re-spotted because the original spot was wrong. 

 

Here I suppose McDermott could have challenged on the basis that Allen scored a TD on the run...the challenge would not have "succeeded" because he clearly didn't cross the goal line, but the replay would have potentially resulted in a correct spot.  At that point, we had plenty of timeouts so "losing" the challenge would not have mattered.