A look at some 2024 Draft sleepers a year on....

[GunnerBill]

Here is some hopefully interesting reading while folks wait nervously for tonight..... one of the things people say to you when you attempt to grade draft prospects is "bet you never tell us about the ones you miss on." I always try and make sure that I'm as transparent both when I miss and when I hit so one of the threads I like to do each January is look back at guys who were undrafted by the end of the draft that I had draftable grades on and anyone that I didn't have enough of an evaluation on to put on my draftboard but who I flagged in my annual sleepers thread. 

 

Reminder of some alumni of this column who have gone on to have on to have reasonable careers are Robby "Chosen" Anderson (2016); Tyrel Dodson and Carl Granderson (2019); Bryce Huff and Juwan Johnson (2020) and Ivan Pace (2023). 

 

At the end of the 2024 NFL Draft I had only 4 undrafted guys with draftable grades on my board and only one additional sleeper. So five guys to consider when looking at how their rookie year went:

 

Beau Brade, S, Maryland

Brade was a late 3rd round grade on my board. His testing numbers likely stopped him getting drafted but his tape as a hard hitting box safety was pretty solid. He was signed as a UDFA by the Ravens and made the 53 coming out of camp. He has been a core special teamer playing 70% of the snaps in the kicking game but did get a handful of defensive snaps across three games. His ST ability likely means he is going to stick in the league for a few years and give him a chance to climb the depth chart on defense. 

 

Leonard Taylor III, DT, Miami

Taylor was also a late 3rd round grade on my board but his tape in his final season at Miami was mixed and saw him slip right through the draft. That was very surprising to me but Taylor was swooped up by the Jets, made their active roster, and established himself in the defensive line rotation playing 28% of the snaps and tallying 1.5 sacks, 4 pressures and 4 tackles for loss. He could take another step in 2025.

 

Javion Cohen, IOL, Miami

Cohen had a late 4th round grade on my board. He was another guy, like Brade, whose tape was better than his testing and he did seem to play heavy in his final year with Miami after transferring from Alabama. He was signed as an UDFA by the Browns and made their initial 53. He was active for one game, in week 4, before being waived and the re-signed to the practice squad where he remained before signing a futures contract after the season. I expect Cleveland are hoping a full offseason NFL conditioning programme will bring improvement in 2025.

 

Dallin Holker, TE, Colorado State

Holker was the lowest guy left on my board with a 4th/5th borderline grade and was probably the most speculative of this group in terms of him actually getting drafted. He stood out in last year's Shrine Bowl and when I went back to his Colorado State tape I saw a really solid tight end who could do a bit of everything. He went undrafted to the Saints, made the 53 (which makes it a clean sweep this year for my draftable undrafted guys) and played in 12 games in 2024 as mainly a blocking tight end and special teamer. He got his most run week 18 against the Buccaneers and had two catches on three targets. Has a chance to make an impact in 2025.

 

The one guy that I hadn't watched enough of to have a full grade on or to have on my board but who I flagged in my sleepers list prior to the draft who then went undrafted was:

 

Blake Watson, RB, Memphis

I had an indicative 5th round grade on Watson but hadn't done enough on him to have a full grade and put him on the board. My first exposure was the Shrine Bowl where I thought he was just a pass catching back, but when I did get to some Memphis film was impressed with his running. He was signed as an UDFA by the Broncos and... you guessed it.... he made the 53! He was waived during the season and then had bounced between the practice squad and active roster, playing in two games and getting his most run week 16 against the Chargers where he had 4 carries and one reception. He was inactive vs the Bills last week in the playoffs.

 

 

As groups go I think that was a pretty good one. To have draftable grades on five guys that went undrafted and for all five to make their team's roster coming out of camp is a pretty good strike rate. I'll chalk that one up as a decent year and I really like Taylor's chances, in particular, to join the alumni list for this topic in years to come. I'm already well into looking at the guys who are hoping to be selected in Green Bay at the end of April, and no doubt again there will be some of those folks to talk about come next January. 

 

[GASabresIUFan]

Where was Buffalo Joe on your list?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Where was Buffalo Joe on your list?

 

Haha definitely not a player I was even aware existed. I didn't realise until the article the other day the Chiefs invited him to rookie camp tryouts the week before we did but ultimately passed on offering him a deal so it was obviously more than just the hometown kid done good. Others had some minor levels of interest (though rookie camp tryout is pretty low down the totem pole).

[MJS]

Man, it would be nice to get lucky and draft the next elite pass rusher...

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, MJS said:

Man, it would be nice to get lucky and draft the next elite pass rusher...

 

@gonzo1105 and I were talking last weekend about Mike Green out of Marshall who is starting to get some buzz. I had a high 2nd on him indicatively from my first tape review but that is almost certain to be in my top 32 grades (this is a 15/16 true first rounders type of class) and I have done a couple of mock simulators this weekend where he ends up going right in and around the Bills pick - from like #24 to #38. If that ends up his range he is very interesting. His all round game needs some work but as a pure pass rusher? He is dynamite.

[Doc]

Would have been nice to have Leonard Taylor.  I wonder if they tried to get him and he bought into the preseason Jets hype and went with them instead?

Edited Sunday at 05:17 PM by Doc

[gonzo1105]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

@gonzo1105 and I were talking last weekend about Mike Green out of Marshall who is starting to get some buzz. I had a high 2nd on him indicatively from my first tape review but that is almost certain to be in my top 32 grades (this is a 15/16 true first rounders type of class) and I have done a couple of mock simulators this weekend where he ends up going right in and around the Bills pick - from like #24 to #38. If that ends up his range he is very interesting. His all round game needs some work but as a pure pass rusher? He is dynamite.

I honestly think after all is said and done that he will be a top 20 pick or at least before the Bills pick. There is just too much going for him imo to go late first early 2nd imo. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up in the top 15 

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Here is some hopefully interesting reading while folks wait nervously for tonight..... one of the things people say to you when you attempt to grade draft prospects is "bet you never tell us about the ones you miss on." I always try and make sure that I'm as transparent both when I miss and when I hit so one of the threads I like to do each January is look back at guys who were undrafted by the end of the draft that I had draftable grades on and anyone that I didn't have enough of an evaluation on to put on my draftboard but who I flagged in my annual sleepers thread. 

 

Reminder of some alumni of this column who have gone on to have on to have reasonable careers are Robby "Chosen" Anderson (2016); Tyrel Dodson and Carl Granderson (2019); Bryce Huff and Juwan Johnson (2020) and Ivan Pace (2023). 

 

At the end of the 2024 NFL Draft I had only 4 undrafted guys with draftable grades on my board and only one additional sleeper. So five guys to consider when looking at how their rookie year went:

 

Beau Brade, S, Maryland

Brade was a late 3rd round grade on my board. His testing numbers likely stopped him getting drafted but his tape as a hard hitting box safety was pretty solid. He was signed as a UDFA by the Ravens and made the 53 coming out of camp. He has been a core special teamer playing 70% of the snaps in the kicking game but did get a handful of defensive snaps across three games. His ST ability likely means he is going to stick in the league for a few years and give him a chance to climb the depth chart on defense. 

 

Leonard Taylor III, DT, Miami

Taylor was also a late 3rd round grade on my board but his tape in his final season at Miami was mixed and saw him slip right through the draft. That was very surprising to me but Taylor was swooped up by the Jets, made their active roster, and established himself in the defensive line rotation playing 28% of the snaps and tallying 1.5 sacks, 4 pressures and 4 tackles for loss. He could take another step in 2025.

 

Javion Cohen, IOL, Miami

Cohen had a late 4th round grade on my board. He was another guy, like Brade, whose tape was better than his testing and he did seem to play heavy in his final year with Miami after transferring from Alabama. He was signed as an UDFA by the Browns and made their initial 53. He was active for one game, in week 4, before being waived and the re-signed to the practice squad where he remained before signing a futures contract after the season. I expect Cleveland are hoping a full offseason NFL conditioning programme will bring improvement in 2025.

 

Dallin Holker, TE, Colorado State

Holker was the lowest guy left on my board with a 4th/5th borderline grade and was probably the most speculative of this group in terms of him actually getting drafted. He stood out in last year's Shrine Bowl and when I went back to his Colorado State tape I saw a really solid tight end who could do a bit of everything. He went undrafted to the Saints, made the 53 (which makes it a clean sweep this year for my draftable undrafted guys) and played in 12 games in 2024 as mainly a blocking tight end and special teamer. He got his most run week 18 against the Buccaneers and had two catches on three targets. Has a chance to make an impact in 2025.

 

The one guy that I hadn't watched enough of to have a full grade on or to have on my board but who I flagged in my sleepers list prior to the draft who then went undrafted was:

 

Blake Watson, RB, Memphis

I had an indicative 5th round grade on Watson but hadn't done enough on him to have a full grade and put him on the board. My first exposure was the Shrine Bowl where I thought he was just a pass catching back, but when I did get to some Memphis film was impressed with his running. He was signed as an UDFA by the Broncos and... you guessed it.... he made the 53! He was waived during the season and then had bounced between the practice squad and active roster, playing in two games and getting his most run week 16 against the Chargers where he had 4 carries and one reception. He was inactive vs the Bills last week in the playoffs.

 

 

As groups go I think that was a pretty good one. To have draftable grades on five guys that went undrafted and for all five to make their team's roster coming out of camp is a pretty good strike rate. I'll chalk that one up as a decent year and I really like Taylor's chances, in particular, to join the alumni list for this topic in years to come. I'm already well into looking at the guys who are hoping to be selected in Green Bay at the end of April, and no doubt again there will be some of those folks to talk about come next January. 

 

Unless it's a stud pass rusher, a huge 1 tech DT, a bigger(yet very athletic) LB, or an all around WR who can create separation, I don't want to hear about any other positions.

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I honestly think after all is said and done that he will be a top 20 pick or at least before the Bills pick. There is just too much going for him imo to go late first early 2nd imo. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up in the top 15 

 

It is certainly possible in this class. It depends a lot I think on what teams make of Mykel Williams and Shermar Stewart. They are definitiely more all around ends but they don't have anything like the pass rush upside Green has. I still think he ends up final 3rd of round 1 or early round 2. But I wouldn't be shocked if you were right and he goes top 20.

[Sojourner]

Quite a few guys performed very well who were late rounders or sleepers. 
 

Bucky Irving and Tracy Jr. for the RB position. 
 

Taheeb Still, Malik Mustapha, Jarvis Brownlee and Jaden Hicks at the DBs. 
 

EDIT: if someone probably says it’s about players who went undrafted and that is the sole measurable:

 

Beanie Bishop, Steelers and McCulloch, Rams

Edited Sunday at 05:48 PM by Sojourner

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Unless it's a stud pass rusher, a huge 1 tech DT, a bigger(yet very athletic) LB, or an all around WR who can create separation, I don't want to hear about any other positions.

 

I'm hoping for a DE DT and WR with the first and 2 second round picks.  I hope their board works out that way!

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Quite a few guys performed very well who were late rounders or sleepers. 
 

Bucky Irving and Tracy Jr. for the RB position. 
 

Taheeb Still, Malik Mustapha, Jarvis Brownlee and Jaden Hicks at the DBs. 

 

Irving was my sleeper pick…having watched all his college games, I knew his game was going to translate well…

[djp14150]

16 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Unless it's a stud pass rusher, a huge 1 tech DT, a bigger(yet very athletic) LB, or an all around WR who can create separation, I don't want to hear about any other positions.

Buffalo can use MIN pick(340 pts)  and their 1st (590-700)  and get into the 15-20 range possibly targeting a DT or OLB/ pass rusher.

 

WR I put less on the list depending on free agency and buffalo might attract cheaper vets or thise who want to prove it in a cheap 1 year 

8 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Quite a few guys performed very well who were late rounders or sleepers. 
 

Bucky Irving and Tracy Jr. for the RB position. 
 

Taheeb Still, Malik Mustapha, Jarvis Brownlee and Jaden Hicks at the DBs. 

 

 

they take longer to develop and they usually  emerge in  yr 2

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Quite a few guys performed very well who were late rounders or sleepers. 
 

Bucky Irving and Tracy Jr. for the RB position. 
 

Taheeb Still, Malik Mustapha, Jarvis Brownlee and Jaden Hicks at the DBs. 

 

 

Yea I liked Hicks a lot. I had him slightly above Bishop as my S3. 

[Sojourner]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I liked Hicks a lot. I had him slightly above Bishop as my S3. 

Do you feel he takes over for Cook next year? The guys done a lot with the time on the field. Going into the playoffs he’d only played around 30% of the defensive snaps if I remember correctly. Definitely has the chance to be a great player if he’s doing what he did in that small sample imo

Cook’s done well and is a high draft pick. So maybe Reid down the road if not?

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Do you feel he takes over for Cook next year? The guys done a lot with the time on the field. Going into the playoffs he’d only played around 30% of the defensive snaps if I remember correctly. Definitely has the chance to be a great player if he’s doing what he did in that small sample imo

Cook’s done well and is a high draft pick. So maybe Reid down the road if not?

 

He can play both spots I think. I liked him more long term as a SS which is Reid's spot. But he can be a FS too. 

[Sojourner]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He can play both spots I think. I liked him more long term as a SS which is Reid's spot. But he can be a FS too. 

That’s probably the call, taking Reid’s spot. Just checked and he’s a UFA after this season. Cooks/Hicks is a young and cheap combo for the next 2 seasons without extensions. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Sojourner said:

That’s probably the call, taking Reid’s spot. Just checked and he’s a UFA after this season. Cooks/Hicks is a young and cheap combo for the next 2 seasons without extensions. 

 

I think Cook only has one year left. He was the same draft as James Cook. I remember 'cos in the embedded when Beane tells the admin guys to "get Cook on the phone" they ask "which one?" and Beane has to confirm "James". But the Chiefs had actually taken Bryan anyway in the few picks after we'd made the 2nd trade back.

[Dave_Bills]

I’m the farthest thing from a scout but my general eye test watching Leonard Taylor (sample size 2 games haha) it appeared to me like he didn’t really care at all. 
 

Tools aren’t really a question but in my limited viewing I can see why a GM wouldn’t draft him. 
 

If he does care, however, there’s something to work with.

 

great work gunner as always

[billsfan714]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Unless it's a stud pass rusher, a huge 1 tech DT, a bigger(yet very athletic) LB, or an all around WR who can create separation, I don't want to hear about any other positions.

With Rasul Douglass a FA, you can add a corner to the list.