1/19/25 Division Round Playoff GAMEDAY THREAD Bills vs. Ravens

[Willyville Guy]

37 minutes ago, boyst said:

I don't. 

 

I don't know what to expect from Modrack. I believe he may be ready to put some cards on the table because his efforts in his first year have been admirable. Combined with Tee Martin as the QB coach I think they've done wonders and that's because they don't take gambles. They set up plays and they design the scheme to maximize every opportunity. And it works. Jackson doesn't throw targets open like he used to sometimes do. He plays smarter than that but also hits Windows from time to time. What he does is rely on the first read and it almost always an option. When the ball goes up today you must expect that the target is open. Every single pass he has thrown was to a target that was open and clear. He doesn't have to read the defense, which he struggles to process in real time. If the defense can mix it up real time on him for passing plays he might slip. 

 

Before the open passes he will see the field. He struggled against some pre snap reads and it when he checks down to the run. If he sees too many in the box or coverage which he knows he can switch to RPO he instantly goes to that option.

 

He doesn't play like an intelligent high vision player. He plays like an athlete who can do whatever he wants whenever he wants because that's what he can usually do.

 

Once he drops back to pass he doesn't check down. It's something around 5% are checked down and even less likely on third down. This is why third down is critical for us to get on the field. He won't check down because he can find the open target or run it himself for the first.

 

To combat the down field opportunities he maximizes in lieu of the check down we have to stay on our WRs a little while longer and play man. We can't let them beat us in the air. We have to let Lamar Jackson and Henry beat us with their legs. This means our front 7 have to beat the 5 OL and 2 of them. This means when Picard enters we must be prepared to install the package necessary to stop the big FB. Same with their extra OL. We need to make sure these refs know that if they're going to sub than we are too, and the defense has the right to do so.

 

All of this makes it a team playing chess against a team that must play Go!

 

The Ravens must and will be strategic to execute their game plan because that's what works best with that style. The Bills must be malleable and neurally sympatic.  We need to see the culmination of a year of Rapp and Hamlin playing together, the maturity of Milano who has to play his best game, the high frame per second processing of Johnson and Bernard, and Ed Oliver and the DL fold the pocket.*

 

*Folding the pocket is exactly that. It is not collapsing the pocket because that opens the outside lanes. The Bills must pressure from all 4 sides to be in front, beside, and parallel to behind.

 

NEURALLY SYMPATIC ON 3!

 

[Olliemets]

4 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I think it was Pete Carroll? 

So long ago...I remember the reactions from a big weekly work football pool. You are correct. I looked in the FB Database and see this was 11/29/98 which is pre-Big Bill.

 

I see Vinateri "run" at the 15M Mark after time expired. Consequently Pats won by 4 and the line was 3.5

 

I didn't like Pete Carrol either 😂

[CSBill]

4 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Ravens aren't raptors. They're carrion and they won't be eating today. In fact they're gonna be road kill in a few hours.

 

 

You'll have to take that up with the Vermont Institute of Natural Science.

 

https://vinsweb.org/exhibits-activities/raptor-enclosures/

https://adopt.vinsweb.org/ambassadors/woodstock/

 

But you are correct about them eating road kill (their unbelievable stats in the last 1/3 of the season over the Steelers, Browns, Giants, etc.), and they will become road kill for themselves today. 🙂

 

 

[sven233]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Sorry to hear that.  Personally, I slept like a baby.  No worries, Josh and the boys are not losing this game.

 

Yeah..... I mean, I don't think it was all because of the game.  Just one of those nights where you can't get comfortable, you know?  I am sure some of it was being ready for today, but whatever happens tonight, win or lose, I am sure there will be all sorts of adrenaline going tonight too.

[Mark Vader]

3 hours ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

We need this today:

 

 

Will we see a Billdo tonight?

[Sojourner]

2 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Will we see a Billdo tonight?

With wings?!

[mannc]

10 minutes ago, Herc11 said:

 

Goff was a defender when he got hit. QB protections don't apply.

The blocker hit him in chin with the crown of his helmet...penalty.  It was also a borderline blindside block, which I believe is illegal on a return. 

[Motorin']

11 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

So long ago...I remember the reactions from a big weekly work football pool. You are correct. I looked in the FB Database and see this was 11/29/98 which is pre-Big Bill.

 

I see Vinateri "run" at the 15M Mark after time expired. Consequently Pats won by 4 and the line was 3.5

 

I didn't like Pete Carrol either 😂

 

Probably one of the worst "bad beats" of all time.

[hikerprof2]

This is obviously a legacy game for the Bills.

I have optimism, not confidence, for a win. Both of these teams are excellent, and on paper either should be able to defeat KC and win the Superbowl.

 

Optimism. The Bills have home field advantage. The weather slightly favors the Bills-while the raven's playstyle isn't affected by the weather, Jackson is a Florida guy at heart, and Josh can play in any weather. The Bills are healthy, whereas the Ravens are missing their best WR (who is only their third best offensive player). Optimism: we have Josh Allen, and Josh Allen can and will need to put on the Superman cape. The trouble is, that's not a huge advantage over Lamar Jackson if he does the same, since he is, respectfully, a great player himself.

 

Concern: The Ravens Run game versus our light box defenses. The return of Milano, Bernard, T. Johnson, and Rapp (who missed much of the game) should help, but McDermott may have to adjust. Between a game script where we get out to an early lead- Josh will have to be perfect against an exceptional defense -- and either playing heavier boxes or some real heroics from a defense we all know has weaknesses --we have to neutralize their running game and make Jackson one dimensional.

 

While Jackson has put up good numbers this year throwing, I believe he throws as a compliment to the run, off the threat of the run. Isolate that and make him just win the game with his arm, he is mistake prone and has limited resources.

 

Moving forward, if the Ravens win this game just based on exceptional play on their behalf, while we play them hard, it's just the football gods having their say. If Josh has the rare bad day, it's the football gods again sporting with our Buffalo fanhood. If the Ravens pound us with the run and we don't adjust we have to look at Sean McDermott as a guy too stubborn to get us over the edge, and that puts the team in a bad quandary moving forward. If it's a close game and we lose in the end because of some time management issue or poor play call, once again the blame lies with McDermott. If we lose, next year I'd suggest bringing the offense back as is, including Cooper. The biggest improvements on that side of the ball will be made in continuity and comfort. Most of our draft and FA resources should be spent on revitalizing the D and developing new schemes.

 

But if we win-if we win -McDermott is vindicated, and we move on to KC to play against Mahomes and the refs on their field, and I still think that is  less of a challenge than the Ravens. 

 

Go Bills, a  fan for 36 years.

 

 

Edited 20 hours ago by hikerprof2

[Sojourner]

See you all later! Hope we’ll secure a win! I’m sure all of us there are gonna keep the stadium rocking and rolling!!!

 

Stay safe, stay blessed!

 

Lets go Buffalo!!!

[Juice_32]

2PM and it feels like this day has been 48 hours already. 

[boyst]

14 minutes ago, CSBill said:

 

You'll have to take that up with the Vermont Institute of Natural Science.

 

https://vinsweb.org/exhibits-activities/raptor-enclosures/

https://adopt.vinsweb.org/ambassadors/woodstock/

 

But you are correct about them eating road kill (their unbelievable stats in the last 1/3 of the season over the Steelers, Browns, Giants, etc.), and they will become road kill for themselves today. 🙂

 

 

Vermont is only an expert on Maple syrup and Teddy bears. With all due respect, raptors aren't their forte. 

[skibum]

LET'S GO BUFF A LO!

 

The Bills are healthy, at home, and the weather is cold. It's going to be a hell of a game. 

[yall]

22 minutes ago, Buddy Hix said:

This game means a lot for Buffalo. If Baltimore comes into our house and wins, it will mean Buffalo has fallen behind a third team in the conference. McD needs his defensive unit to finally play well when it matters.

 

I’m so nervous that Baltimore comes into our house and just blows our defence apart.

Literally the reason I'm not going today. The cold? No biggie.

 

Watching us getting our poop pushed in while drinking $16 frozen beer? I'll pass.

Edited 20 hours ago by yall

[stevewin]

On NFLN they just said Brady interviewed for Bears Saints, and Jags over past 48 hrs - and also "let an interview slip with the Jets"  because he "didn't have time" lol

[Neo]

36 minutes ago, BRH said:

 

Not to mention Goff getting blown up helmet-to-helmet when he tried to make a play during the pick-six.

 

On another note, I happen to agree with those who said the league wants the Chiefs in the AFCCG but not necessarily any farther.  Everyone watches the SB no matter what, and Josh/Lamar in search of a first Lombardi will be a fine storyline.  But nobody gives a ***** about the Texans.  There's a reason they always get the 3:30 Saturday game.  So I'm not sure we will see quite as much blatant favoritism next week as we saw yesterday.

 

 

 

I agree that the league wants the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, but not beyond.  Furthermore, I think the league wants the Chiefs to win the toss and elect to defer.  That means the Ravens get the ball first.  Oh, yeah, the league wants the Ravens to be in the AFC Championship, too.   Bigger market, and, like, Vegas, or something.   Back to the AFCCG.  I believe the league wants the opening kickoff returned to the 28 and the Ravens coming out in 12 personnel.   I’ll skip a few things, but i think the league wants the Chiefs up by 6 at halftime.   Something about Travis and Taylor.   Plus, a Lamar comeback is a great storyline.   Then, I think the league wants…..

[Danger Mouse]

This is a really hard game to call for the coaches

 

do you go expansive and really take it to them in a shootout (probably) or try to dominate the game in a percentages battle - which I’m just not sure we can win?

 

tough call to put it all on red. But we probably have to. Josh has to outgun Lamar. 

 

 

[Low Positive]

4 minutes ago, stevewin said:

On NFLN they just said Brady interviewed for Bears Saints, and Jags over past 48 hrs - and also "let an interview slip with the Jets"  because he "didn't have time" lol

Brady did say that he interviews during his off time, but you have to think that it does take up a good amount of mental energy. Like, when he goes to bed at night what is he thinking about? Winning a SB next month in New Orleans or house shopping there?

[Dan]

1 hour ago, Low Positive said:

You construct a roster to stop a modern NFL offense, and in order to get to the Super Bowl you have to somehow stop a combination of the '85 Bears and Navy.

Thats what I keep thinking.  The Ravens are a mismatch for our defense, but they’re a mismatch for pretty much every team!    When they go heavy… Orlovsky (eye roll) had a segment… they have 6 linemen each over 300lbs,

2 TEs and a RB, each over 250lbs.  Thats a lot of beef smashing into small DBs!    So it’s just hard to stop..for

anyone.   
 

And they run with this set throughout the game, not just in those 1yd to go type

situations.   Hence for me,

a key will be our offense sustaining long drives that result in touchdowns.  The more we force them to play catch up, the less likely they are to just line up heavy and pound the defense.   Especially early in the game… if we don’t score early and they pound away… that’s when you see people tired and arm tackles in the 4th quarter. 
 

Ideally, we see a start more like the Lions game and less like the Rams game.  

[Neo]

9 minutes ago, yall said:

Literally the reason I'm not going today. The cold? No biggie.

 

Watching us getting our poop pushed in while drinking $16 frozen beer? I'll pass.

 

 

Stay indoors.   An airplane may fall on you.