Is there a formula to compare teams likelihood of winning the Super Bowl? Here is mine.

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

I’m not critiquing what you’ve put together, just curious how you’re assigning the 40 points is all. Is the 4 broken down into sections or is just a general strength value you are applying to your thoughts?

 

I appreciate different perspectives and am always curious how someone has achieved theirs. How did Mahomes reach a 33 value? Josh a 40? Lamar a 37? And so on…

I just established 2023 Chiefs as 100 to pivot around.  three parts, 33,33,34 =100, then adjusted the components leaving Reid, elevating Mahomes, lowering everything else.   Since the 2023 Chiefs were not the greatest super bowl winner ever, their needs to be room to grow.  I arbitrarily picked 120 as the point to grow two, and then divided it equally to say 40 is the peak. 

Just now, GunnerBill said:

I have no idea what this means. 

I believe you. 

[Sweats]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Super Bowl Winning Formula
 

This formula aims to quantify the factors contributing to Super Bowl success by assigning scores to three key areas:

1. Coaching: Assessment based on past season ending results with heaviest weight on most recent results. 
2. Quarterback: Assesses the quarterback's overall talent and results. 
3. Everything Else: Encompasses the collective strength of the roster (excluding the QB), including factors like offensive and defensive line play, skill position talent, special teams, and overall team depth. It also includes playoff factors like bye weeks and homefield advantage. 

Scoring System

• Each area receives a score on a scale of 0-40, with higher scores indicating greater strength.
• A Super Bowl-winning caliber team would score around 100 in total.
• The 1989 Niners would be closest to 120 in the Super Bowl era
• The average team scores around 50 (16 for coach, 16 for QB, 17 for everything else).
• 2024 Jets score 35 (0 for coach, 16 for QB, 19 for everything else. (Included just for fun)
   

2023 Kansas City Chiefs (Super Bowl Champions)

• Andy Reid (Coach): 33
• Patrick Mahomes (QB): 39
• Everything Else: 28
• Total: 100
   

2024 Remaining Playoff Team Analysis

Here's how the remaining contenders stack up based on this formula:
 

 

 

Coaching Tier Notes
 

• Top Tier: I consider Andy Reid and Sean McVay the top two coaches in the NFL due to their recent Super Bowl visit and consistent success. McVay has done this with two different QBs, neither of whom is best of the best
• Second Tier: Coaches like John Harbaugh, Sean McDermott, Nick Sirianni, and Dan Campbell all have similar results overall and I have clustered their scores closely together. 
• Third Tier: DeMeco Ryans is slightly lower due to inexperience, but early results suggest he could be on par with the second tier.
• Below Average: Based on lack of past success i rank  Dan Quinn below the rest but still above average overall

Past is not always prologue.  Josh's playoff career is stellar. The hope is that he plays at his past level. Its not reasonable to expect more.  The Bills coaching and the rest of the team will have to be better to vanquish the Ravens and Chiefs.  Mahomes is on a down year.  If we see peak Mahomes in the playoffs the Chiefs are pretty big favorites. If we see 2024 standard Mahomes, the Chiefs are beatable. 

 

 

 

Alright, so not to nit pick, but i have a few concerns with your numbers here.....

 

JA and LJ should both be sitting at 40 for QB. Their numbers are comparable, and both are the elite of the league right now.

There's no way Stafford should be at 25 and Hurts at 30.......if anything, i would have them about equal or completely switched numbers altogether and considering Goff is at 31 and higher than both Stafford AND Hurts, when Goff is being made by his supporting cast is questionable..........Jesus, you've even got JD higher than Stafford.

 

I don't know, man.........i really don't know.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

A formula needs a rationale beyond arbitrary assigning of numbers. That said, if @Chaos is auditioning for job on Madden this is right on point.

[extrahammer]

I agree with all of this and love the detail except the scoring of Harbaugh and McD. I think they're above Campbell and Sirianni.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

So you think the talent gap between josh allen and lamar jackson is greater than the talent gap between the rest of the players on Baltimore vs the rest of the players on buffalo? 

 

Not sure I agree . Lamar and allen are almost identical. The Ravens have 8 pro bowlers outside of the QB vs. 1 for the bills. 

 

Yeah and I'd place Mahomnes closer to Allen and Jackson too.

 

I also question McVay having the 2nd best coaching score.  Yes been to 2 different SB with 2 different QB's but in between no so great.  Since last SB win, this is first year they won division and that was more the other teams lost than Rams doing great.

[Chaos]

18 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yeah and I'd place Mahomnes closer to Allen and Jackson too.

 

I also question McVay having the 2nd best coaching score.  Yes been to 2 different SB with 2 different QB's but in between no so great.  Since last SB win, this is first year they won division and that was more the other teams lost than Rams doing great.

If the goal is to get to and win the super bowl the Rams/McVays wide gamut strategy seems more effective than building to be consistently above average without the ability to hit the highest peaks. 

[Chaos]

I am surprised, that no one has really challenged the equal breakdown among the three pieces of HC QB and Everything else.  The people who are confident Defense makes Champions, or everything has to first be built out from the trenches might want to disagree.  

My bias was QB was more important than head coach previously.   But among the rarefied group of multiple Super Bowl winning head coaches, several did it with less than elite QBs, and with more than one QB.  Only two QBs won super bowls with more than one Head Coach,  Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. I now lean towards thinking coaching is the most important.   Obviously the mix of QB and Everything else can be radically different.  The 1985 bears would make a case for busting the limit and getting a 50 on "everything else" with a 25 QB and a 30 Coach.  

 

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

The effort is laudable but this is simply too arbitrary to mean anything.  The very premise of the equal three way split between HC, QB and everything else is too flawed a foundation.

[Chaos]

very odd that your comment seems to have been posted nine minutes before mine, but did not appear until after my most recent comment. 

[mannc]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

It ridiculous hard to win a super bowl.  Since 1966 there have been 314 Head coaches in the NFL.  Only 35 have won a Super Bowl.  Five Head coaches have won a full 1/3 of all Super Bowls between them.  14 have won almost 2/3s.

Winning CoachWinsRunning Total

Similar Story for QBs:

 

In my opinion everyone on the HC list above, except Siefert (who inherited Walsh's team and system) demonstrated coaching greatness during the careers. 
That is not quite as obvious on the QB list.  Griese, Eli Manning, and Plunkett would all be sort of forgetable other than their Super Bowl wins.  Notwithstanding statistics, the rest of the QBs on the list demonstrated greatness. 

Actually surprised there have been only 314 head coaches since 1966….seems way low.   Must not include interim coaches.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

15 minutes ago, Chaos said:

very odd that your comment seems to have been posted nine minutes before mine, but did not appear until after my most recent comment. 

Weird timing indeed on the content, but on my browser it does show that yours was posted first.

[GoBills808]

31 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I am surprised, that no one has really challenged the equal breakdown among the three pieces of HC QB and Everything else.  The people who are confident Defense makes Champions, or everything has to first be built out from the trenches might want to disagree.  

My bias was QB was more important than head coach previously.   But among the rarefied group of multiple Super Bowl winning head coaches, several did it with less than elite QBs, and with more than one QB.  Only two QBs won super bowls with more than one Head Coach,  Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. I now lean towards thinking coaching is the most important.   Obviously the mix of QB and Everything else can be radically different.  The 1985 bears would make a case for busting the limit and getting a 50 on "everything else" with a 25 QB and a 30 Coach.  

 

Might make sense to score QB on a 2pt scale and everything else 1-32

 

For simplicity's sake

 

So like top coach would be worth 32 and top QB would be worth 64

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Might make sense to score QB on a 2pt scale and everything else 1-32

 

For simplicity's sake

 

So like top coach would be worth 32 and top QB would be worth 64

I think the coach is more important than the QB. Top coaches have won super bowls with less than elite QBs nor often than elite QBs have won with less than elite coaches. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

I think the coach is more important than the QB. Top coaches have won super bowls with less than elite QBs nor often than elite QBs have won with less than elite coaches. 

I'd disagree but you could just flip the multiplier in that case

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

Playoff history suggests Lamar and Allen are quite different. I ranked Lamar very high based on 2024 regular season results. I think the perception of Lamar is higher because of the supporting cast, in particular Derrick Henry.  With all due respect to James Cook who had a great season.  Coaches are not worrying nearly as much about defending him as Henry.  Everything else as I mentioned, includes home field advantage for the playoffs.  That favors the Bills.  And overall I think the Bills roster is not that far behind the Ravens. I don't put much stock in pro bowl selections.  Ravens defense has holes too.  How would you score the Ravens vs the Bills. 

Yes that is why I closed the original post mentioning past is not prologue, and taking specifically into account the possibility of playoff Mahomes. 

 

 

 

 

So you take lamars history in the playoffs into account but not mahomes? Mahomes Is the best QB in the history of the playoffs and somehow you have him significantly lower than allen and lamar?

[Fleezoid]

That looks more like a recipe than a formula. But then again, I don't math well.