Is there a formula to compare teams likelihood of winning the Super Bowl? Here is mine.

[Chaos]

Super Bowl Winning Formula
 

This formula aims to quantify the factors contributing to Super Bowl success by assigning scores to three key areas:

1. Coaching: Assessment based on past season ending results with heaviest weight on most recent results. 
2. Quarterback: Assesses the quarterback's overall talent and results. 
3. Everything Else: Encompasses the collective strength of the roster (excluding the QB), including factors like offensive and defensive line play, skill position talent, special teams, and overall team depth. It also includes playoff factors like bye weeks and homefield advantage. 

Scoring System

• Each area receives a score on a scale of 0-40, with higher scores indicating greater strength.
• A Super Bowl-winning caliber team would score around 100 in total.
• The 1989 Niners would be closest to 120 in the Super Bowl era
• The average team scores around 50 (16 for coach, 16 for QB, 17 for everything else).
• 2024 Jets score 35 (0 for coach, 16 for QB, 19 for everything else. (Included just for fun)
   

2023 Kansas City Chiefs (Super Bowl Champions)

• Andy Reid (Coach): 33
• Patrick Mahomes (QB): 39
• Everything Else: 28
• Total: 100
   

2024 Remaining Playoff Team Analysis

Here's how the remaining contenders stack up based on this formula:
 

 

 

Coaching Tier Notes
 

• Top Tier: I consider Andy Reid and Sean McVay the top two coaches in the NFL due to their recent Super Bowl visit and consistent success. McVay has done this with two different QBs, neither of whom is best of the best
• Second Tier: Coaches like John Harbaugh, Sean McDermott, Nick Sirianni, and Dan Campbell all have similar results overall and I have clustered their scores closely together. 
• Third Tier: DeMeco Ryans is slightly lower due to inexperience, but early results suggest he could be on par with the second tier.
• Below Average: Based on lack of past success i rank  Dan Quinn below the rest but still above average overall

Past is not always prologue.  Josh's playoff career is stellar. The hope is that he plays at his past level. Its not reasonable to expect more.  The Bills coaching and the rest of the team will have to be better to vanquish the Ravens and Chiefs.  Mahomes is on a down year.  If we see peak Mahomes in the playoffs the Chiefs are pretty big favorites. If we see 2024 standard Mahomes, the Chiefs are beatable. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Chaos

[Sojourner]

How do you come up with the assigned values between 0-40?

 

4 of the coaches are exactly 25?

 

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

So you think the talent gap between josh allen and lamar jackson is greater than the talent gap between the rest of the players on Baltimore vs the rest of the players on buffalo? 

 

Not sure I agree . Lamar and allen are almost identical. The Ravens have 8 pro bowlers outside of the QB vs. 1 for the bills. 

Edited 5 hours ago by TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th

[JP51]

Love you did this... and actually looks interesting so props... but I am so stat and theory weary... I just wanna play the game and see what happens...  

[Sojourner]

Just now, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

So you think the talent gap between josh allen and lamar jackson is greater than the talent gap between the rest of the players on Baltimore vs the rest of the players on buffalo? 

 

Not sure I agree . Lamar and allen are almost identical. The Ravens have 9 pro bowlers vs. 2 for the bills. 

Yeah. That’s what I’m perplexed at. It feel like the value/points is assigned by his own perspective. Which is fine, as he did state “here is mine”. 
 

Just curious how he’s working the scoring as you rightly pointed out “everything else” could be substantially higher for the Ravens. 

[Mr. WEO]

by this system, no team will win the SB this year.

[HOUSE]

I am not a Homer but Buffalo is better than all these crappy teams

[strive_for_five_guy]

You lost me at formual 

 

Edit:  Thank you @Chaos for correcting the spelling in your title 😎

Edited 5 hours ago by strive_for_five_guy

[Kelly to Allen]

11 minutes ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

So you think the talent gap between josh allen and lamar jackson is greater than the talent gap between the rest of the players on Baltimore vs the rest of the players on buffalo? 

 

Not sure I agree . Lamar and allen are almost identical. The Ravens have 8 pro bowlers outside of the QB vs. 1 for the bills. 

 

Lamar isn't close to Allen. 

 

Lamar is a really good QB but Allen is in his own tier of greatness. It's not close 

 

And that's not anything against Lamar. 

 

Randall Cunningham was a helluva QB. He wasn't Elway 

Edited 5 hours ago by Kelly to Allen

[Chaos]

37 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

How do you come up with the assigned values between 0-40?

 

4 of the coaches are exactly 25?

 

my opinion.  I did put notes explaining my opinion on coaching towards the end. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Chaos

[MDH]

[Chaos]

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

by this system, no team will win the SB this year.

Thats not the correct conclusion.  The correct conclusion is that this years super bowl team will be flawed compared to last years winner.  Separately, the team that wins, will demonstrate some elevation of one of the components over the last three games.  

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

34 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Super Bowl Winning Formula
 

This formula aims to quantify the factors contributing to Super Bowl success by assigning scores to three key areas:

1. Coaching: Assessment based on past season ending results with heaviest weight on most recent results. 
2. Quarterback: Assesses the quarterback's overall talent and results. 
3. Everything Else: Encompasses the collective strength of the roster (excluding the QB), including factors like offensive and defensive line play, skill position talent, special teams, and overall team depth. It also includes playoff factors like bye weeks and homefield advantage. 

Scoring System

• Each area receives a score on a scale of 0-40, with higher scores indicating greater strength.
• A Super Bowl-winning caliber team would score around 100 in total.
• The 1989 Niners would be closest to 120 in the Super Bowl era
• The average team scores around 50 (16 for coach, 16 for QB, 17 for everything else).
• 2024 Jets score 35 (0 for coach, 16 for QB, 19 for everything else. (Included just for fun)
   

2023 Kansas City Chiefs (Super Bowl Champions)

• Andy Reid (Coach): 33
• Patrick Mahomes (QB): 39
• Everything Else: 28
• Total: 100
   

2024 Remaining Playoff Team Analysis

Here's how the remaining contenders stack up based on this formula:
 

 

 

Coaching Tier Notes
 

• Top Tier: I consider Andy Reid and Sean McVay the top two coaches in the NFL due to their recent Super Bowl visit and consistent success. McVay has done this with two different QBs, neither of whom is best of the best
• Second Tier: Coaches like John Harbaugh, Sean McDermott, Nick Sirianni, and Dan Campbell all have similar results overall and I have clustered their scores closely together. 
• Third Tier: DeMeco Ryans is slightly lower due to inexperience, but early results suggest he could be on par with the second tier.
• Below Average: Based on lack of past success i rank  Dan Quinn below the rest but still above average overall

Past is not always prologue.  Josh's playoff career is stellar. The hope is that he plays at his past level. Its not reasonable to expect more.  The Bills coaching and the rest of the team will have to be better to vanquish the Ravens and Chiefs.  Mahomes is on a down year.  If we see peak Mahomes in the playoffs the Chiefs are pretty big favorites. If we see 2024 standard Mahomes, the Chiefs are beatable. 

Quality effort at a difficult question. Easy for people to criticize, so it takes guts to post. Good stuff! I don't know if it's all correct-but appreciate the effort.

[Chaos]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

it's certainly more of a formual.

Its 2025, and there is still no prompt for spelling errors. Which does lead to humor

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

my opinion. 

It ridiculous hard to win a super bowl.  Since 1966 there have been 314 Head coaches in the NFL.  Only 35 have won a Super Bowl.  Five Head coaches have won a full 1/3 of all Super Bowls between them.  14 have won almost 2/3s.

Winning CoachWinsRunning Total

Similar Story for QBs:

 

In my opinion everyone on the HC list above, except Siefert (who inherited Walsh's team and system) demonstrated coaching greatness during the careers. 
That is not quite as obvious on the QB list.  Griese, Eli Manning, and Plunkett would all be sort of forgetable other than their Super Bowl wins.  Notwithstanding statistics, the rest of the QBs on the list demonstrated greatness. 

[90sBills]

The thread title could be ‘How to quantify one’s opinion’. Props to you for putting in the work.

[zow2]

Without really analyzing this,  if Allen is given a 40,  there's no way Lamar is 37 and Mahomes 33.  It would be more equal.

 

We all know playoff Mahomes can be a different guy too.

[Sojourner]

22 minutes ago, Chaos said:

my opinion.  I did put notes explaining my opinion on coaching towards the end. 

I’m not critiquing what you’ve put together, just curious how you’re assigning the 40 points is all. Is the 4 broken down into sections or is just a general strength value you are applying to your thoughts?

 

I appreciate different perspectives and am always curious how someone has achieved theirs. How did Mahomes reach a 33 value? Josh a 40? Lamar a 37? And so on…

[Chaos]

35 minutes ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

So you think the talent gap between josh allen and lamar jackson is greater than the talent gap between the rest of the players on Baltimore vs the rest of the players on buffalo? 

 

Not sure I agree . Lamar and allen are almost identical. The Ravens have 8 pro bowlers outside of the QB vs. 1 for the bills. 

Playoff history suggests Lamar and Allen are quite different. I ranked Lamar very high based on 2024 regular season results. I think the perception of Lamar is higher because of the supporting cast, in particular Derrick Henry.  With all due respect to James Cook who had a great season.  Coaches are not worrying nearly as much about defending him as Henry.  Everything else as I mentioned, includes home field advantage for the playoffs.  That favors the Bills.  And overall I think the Bills roster is not that far behind the Ravens. I don't put much stock in pro bowl selections.  Ravens defense has holes too.  How would you score the Ravens vs the Bills. 

2 minutes ago, zow2 said:

Without really analyzing this,  if Allen is given a 40,  there's no way Lamar is 37 and Mahomes 33.  It would be more equal.

 

We all know playoff Mahomes can be a different guy too.

Yes that is why I closed the original post mentioning past is not prologue, and taking specifically into account the possibility of playoff Mahomes. 

 

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Past is not always prologue.  Josh's playoff career is stellar. The hope is that he plays at his past level. Its not reasonable to expect more.  The Bills coaching and the rest of the team will have to be better to vanquish the Ravens and Chiefs.  Mahomes is on a down year.  If we see peak Mahomes in the playoffs the Chiefs are pretty big favorites. If we see 2024 standard Mahomes, the Chiefs are beatable. 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

I have no idea what this means.