Draft Success Measured by AV - Part V

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, since79 said:

Ranked 1 cumulatively and yet we only have one second team All-Pro.  Subjectivity infects all grading and voting.  You cannot believe any of it.

 

It is a flaw in the methodology I have discussed before with @JGMcD2. I think it is a decent method for looking at drafting success but I think it over rewards finding contributors and under rewards finding superstars. 

 

The Bills miss in the draft way less than your average NFL team. Even with Elam in terms of true misses for 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks it is three guys: Ford, Boogie and Elam in six drafts between 2018 and 2023 (too early to call anything on 2024). 

[JGMcD2]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

The Bills numbers are very good overall, but they are definitely helped immensely by starting the cumulative calculations in 2018 when Allen was drafted. Likewise Baltimore is helped in the same way with Lamar drafted 32 that season. 

 

Edited to add: I understand that this is a measurement of Beane’s tenure and that’s why it started in 2017. Not sure why 2024 wasn’t included though. My point is simply that nailing a QB in 2017 - as he did and should get credit for - pumps up the numbers dramatically. 

I excluded the 2017 draft class because it was not managed by Beane, and there is often some debate around its inclusion. This provides a clearer line of delineation. However, I do have the breakdown for the 2017 class, and it ranks second overall, just behind the New Orleans Saints, who had an outstanding draft that year. That being said, the Bills are not very far behind. 

 

When evaluating a draft class, the general consensus is to wait 3-5 seasons for a more accurate assessment. This is why I excluded the 2023 and 2024 drafts, as we have not yet reached that window. That was the reasoning behind my decision - but for full transparency they rank 12th and 10th respectively. I want to put this into perspective... when I ranked the 2022 draft class immediately after the 2022 season, the Bills draft class ranked outside the top 20 (22nd) and now after three years of performance it's ranked 2nd.

 

Regarding your point about Josh Allen pumping up the numbers dramatically, I would like to offer a rebuttal. The original rankings I included were sorted by NETDrAV, which I define as: 

The AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

I am including a new chart below that is sorted by NETCarAV, which I define as:

The pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

 

The Bills do not move at all... Beane very rarely misses. He is identifying talent at such an incredibly consistent rate compared to his peers; it's not just tied to Josh Allen.

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a flaw in the methodology I have discussed before with @JGMcD2. I think it is a decent method for looking at drafting success but I think it over rewards finding contributors and under rewards finding superstars. 

 

The Bills miss in the draft way less than your average NFL team. Even with Elam in terms of true misses for 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks it is three guys: Ford, Boogie and Elam in six drafts between 2018 and 2023 (too early to call anything on 2024). 

Yeah, it's definitely a weak spot.

Although AV rewards you for being an All-Pro and Pro Bowler - there is a multiplier built into the formula. It's baked in there, just probably not weighted appropriately. 

Edited Thursday at 09:58 PM by JGMcD2

[Mikie2times]

The flaw I see in this method is it treats every team equally as far as the desire they have to play and extend draft picks. Some teams stock more via Free Agency, some teams have had a lot of turnover leaving the teams un-loyal to draft picks. Then in a case like the Bills, more loyalty to draft picks than perhaps any team in football between our tenure and our approach.

 

Does that mean we have the most talent or it's been the best approach? Not necessarily.  Not to mention the trickle down AV from Josh Allen to the rest of the offensive players with how this method is used. I would at least like to see average AV per player in addition with the total to help offset some of the concepts I'm talking about and give more perspective. 

 

 

 

 

[JGMcD2]

4 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

The flaw I see in this method is it treats every team equally as far as the desire they have to play and extend draft picks. Some teams stock more via Free Agency, some teams have had a lot of turnover leaving the teams un-loyal to draft picks. Then in a case like the Bills, more loyalty to draft picks than perhaps any team in football between our tenure and our approach.

 

Does that mean we have the most talent or it's been the best approach? Not necessarily.  Not to mention the trickle down AV from Josh Allen to the rest of the offensive players with how this method is used. I would at least like to see average AV per player in addition with the total to help offset some of the concepts I'm talking about and give more perspective. 

 

 

 

 

What does the extending draft picks have to do with anything? I have two separate methodologies, one that shows the value to the team and one that shows the value independent of team. The Bills lead in both categories - so I’m not sure I follow your point there. 
 

I’m having a hard time following exactly what you’re asking for in general. Do you mind rephrasing it? 

[GASabresIUFan]

9 hours ago, since79 said:

Ranked 1 cumulatively and yet we only have one second team All-Pro.  Subjectivity infects all grading and voting.  You cannot believe any of it.

You don't need to believe the grading just use your eyes.

2018 - (8 picks) - 1 All-time great QB, 4 NFL starters and 2 productive backups/st players. 7/8 in the NFL this season.

2019 -  (8 picks) - 3 NFL starters and 1 productive backup

2020 - (7 picks) - All currently in the NFL, including 3 starters, 1 rotational RB, 1 good backup 

2021 - (8 picks) - 3 NFL Starters (including 2 very underrated stars in Groot and Brown), 

2022 - (8 picks) - 4 excellent NFL starters, 1 starting punters, 1 backup player.  All 8 players in the NFL this season or PS.

2023 - (6 picks) - 2 NFL starters and 1 key backup.  The 3 other draftees all in the NFL.

 

2024 - (10 picks) - 8 of the 10 made the Bills as rookies, all of the 8 contributed in some capacity with Coleman starting, Davis, Bishop and Solomon carving significant roles as the season progressed.

 

 

Edited Friday at 03:24 AM by GASabresIUFan

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

I excluded the 2017 draft class because it was not managed by Beane, and there is often some debate around its inclusion. This provides a clearer line of delineation. However, I do have the breakdown for the 2017 class, and it ranks second overall, just behind the New Orleans Saints, who had an outstanding draft that year. That being said, the Bills are not very far behind. 

 

When evaluating a draft class, the general consensus is to wait 3-5 seasons for a more accurate assessment. This is why I excluded the 2023 and 2024 drafts, as we have not yet reached that window. That was the reasoning behind my decision - but for full transparency they rank 12th and 10th respectively. I want to put this into perspective... when I ranked the 2022 draft class immediately after the 2022 season, the Bills draft class ranked outside the top 20 (22nd) and now after three years of performance it's ranked 2nd.

 

Regarding your point about Josh Allen pumping up the numbers dramatically, I would like to offer a rebuttal. The original rankings I included were sorted by NETDrAV, which I define as: 

The AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

I am including a new chart below that is sorted by NETCarAV, which I define as:

The pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

 

The Bills do not move at all... Beane very rarely misses. He is identifying talent at such an incredibly consistent rate compared to his peers; it's not just tied to Josh Allen.

Yeah, it's definitely a weak spot.

Although AV rewards you for being an All-Pro and Pro Bowler - there is a multiplier built into the formula. It's baked in there, just probably not weighted appropriately. 

It's a tremendous weak spot.

 

Benford's wAV is 12.

 

Spector, Boogie Basham and Elam combined wAV is 15.

 

Any methodology that has the contributions of those 3 players as superior to Christian Benford's contribution is largely meaningless tbh.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

You don't need to believe the grading just use your eyes.

2018 - (8 picks) - 1 All-time great QB, 4 NFL starters and 2 productive backups/st players. 7/8 in the NFL this season.

2019 -  (8 picks) - 3 NFL starters and 1 productive backup

2020 - (7 picks) - All currently in the NFL, including 3 starters, 1 rotational RB, 1 good backup 

2021 - (8 picks) - 3 NFL Starters (including 2 very underrated stars in Groot and Brown), 

2022 - (8 picks) - 4 excellent NFL starters, 1 starting punters, 1 backup player.  All 8 players in the NFL this season or PS.

2023 - (6 picks) - 2 NFL starters and 1 key backup.  The 3 other draftees all in the NFL.

 

2024 - (10 picks) - 8 of the 10 made the Bills as rookies, all of the 8 contributed in some capacity with Coleman starting, Davis, Bishop and Solomon carving significant roles as the season progressed.

 

 

Drafts lose value as the years go on.

 

The reason why 2024 has "contributors" and 2021 does not is because its currently 2024.

 

In 2019, you could have said "this was such a great draft, we got 4 starters and 3 backups/contributors! Only one guy didn't make the team!"

 

Looking at 2019 now, we have only 2 guys still on the team, and both are overpaid. Singletary was a JAG RB. Ford was a disaster shipped off at the first opportunity. Ed is good but not quite good enough. And Dawson Knox was such a starter that despite being paid a top 10 TE contract at the time of signing, the team turned around and traded up in the first round to send him to the bench.

 

We are gonna have "contributors" from each new draft every year. The old "contributors" will be cut, traded or not re-signed and largely out of the league. That's the reality of the league economy.

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

Looking at 2019 now, we have only 2 guys still on the team, and both are overpaid. Singletary was a JAG RB. Ford was a disaster shipped off at the first opportunity. Ed is good but not quite good enough.

 

Ed isn't overpaid. He has the 18th highest DT contract in football by AAV. I'd actually argue he is slightly underpaid despite having had one of the poorer seasons of his career this year. 

[GASabresIUFan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ed isn't overpaid. He has the 18th highest DT contract in football by AAV. I'd actually argue he is slightly underpaid despite having had one of the poorer seasons of his career this year. 

Don't do it Gunner.  You are arguing with a guy that thinks two players with 71 starts in their 6 year careers aren't starters and that someone who is 4th in his draft class in rushing yards and 4th receiving yards by RB is a JAG.  PS Knox is 3rd in the same class of TE in receiving yards.  

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ed isn't overpaid. He has the 18th highest DT contract in football by AAV. I'd actually argue he is slightly underpaid despite having had one of the poorer seasons of his career this year. 

That's because he signed 2 years ago....

 

He was the 6th highest paid DT in AAV in 2023.

 

He is the the 9th highest paid DT in AAV in 2024.

 

He will be the 16th highest paid DT in AAV in 2025.

 

That's like saying Josh Allen is underpaid because Kirk Cousins hit FA last offseason and Josh signed his extension 3 years ago.  That's not how it works. Ed got top 6 money when he was extension eligible. He has not been top 6 money worthy. Point blank. Period.

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Don't do it Gunner.  You are arguing with a guy that thinks two players with 71 starts in their 6 year careers aren't starters and that someone who is 4th in his draft class in rushing yards and 4th receiving yards by RB is a JAG.  PS Knox is 3rd in the same class of TE in receiving yards.  

Gunner thinks Singles is a total JAG too lmao. You lost the race before you could even tie your shoes.

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That's because he signed 2 years ago....

 

He was the 6th highest paid DT in AAV in 2023.

 

He is the the 9th highest paid DT in AAV in 2024.

 

He will be the 16th highest paid DT in AAV in 2025.

 

That's like saying Josh Allen is underpaid because Kirk Cousins hit FA last offseason and Josh signed his extension 3 years ago.  That's not how it works. Ed got top 6 money when he was extension eligible. He has not been top 6 money worthy. Point blank. Period.

Gunner thinks Singles is a total JAG too lmao. You lost the race before you could even tie your shoes.

 

He isn't 9th in 2024. He is 18th right now... in the 2024 season. He is underpaid whwn I look at what the guys above him are getting, many of whom are not as good.

 

On Singletary, yea. Total JAG. Never had the skillset to be a starting running back and since leaving here was a backup in Houston to a guy that has since been relegated to a backup role himself and then was nominally the starter for 6 weeks in New York before being comprehensively outplayed by a 5th round rookie. Certainly not a bust, but definition of a JAG. The league has told us what they think of him.

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He isn't 9th in 2024. He is 18th right now... in the 2024 season. He is underpaid whwn I look at what the guys above him are getting, many of whom are not as good.

 

On Singletary, yea. Total JAG. Never had the skillset to be a starting running back and since leaving here was a backup in Houston to a guy that has since been relegated to a backup role himself and then was nominally the starter for 6 weeks in New York before being comprehensively outplayed by a 5th round rookie. Certainly not a bust, but definition of a JAG. The league has told us what they think of him.

Spotrac is being weird

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/player/_/year/2024/position/dt/sort/contract_average

This has Ed at 16 in 2024.

 

This has Ed at 12 in 2023.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Spotrac is being weird

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/player/_/year/2024/position/dt/sort/contract_average

This has Ed at 16 in 2024.

 

This has Ed at 12 in 2023.

 

It is missing the two Seattle guys Williams and Jones. It may well be brigading them as defensive ends because of that system in 3 downman looks. But they are interior DLs not edge guys. 

[FireChans]

I would argue the 16th or 18th highest paid DT and the 26th highest paid defensive lineman being ranked 135th in the NFL in sacks and 169th in TFL's is perhaps slightly overpaid @GunnerBill

Edited Friday at 04:58 AM by FireChans

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I would argue the 16th or 18th highest paid DT and the 26th highest paid defensive lineman being ranked 135th in the NFL in sacks and 169th in TFL's is perhaps slightly overpaid @GunnerBill

 

This has been his worst year in a while. Sure. If you are taking this year in isolation you can made the argument. But in terms of what he is paid against the player he has been in his career? He is underpaid IMO. He is better than the 18th best DT in football. I accept until the final month of the season we didn't see it consistently enough in 2024. 

[JGMcD2]

9 hours ago, FireChans said:

It's a tremendous weak spot.

 

Benford's wAV is 12.

 

Spector, Boogie Basham and Elam combined wAV is 15.

 

Any methodology that has the contributions of those 3 players as superior to Christian Benford's contribution is largely meaningless tbh.

Well, you’re proving you didn’t read how this works, which makes your reply largely meaningless 😂

 

That is absolutely not the case at all. I’ll let you go back and read up. Because I know you won’t, and it’ll confuse others, here’s how it actually breaks down. 
 

Basham + Elam + Spector = -21.6

 

Benford = 9.7 

Edited Friday at 12:49 PM by JGMcD2

[Chaos]

Each year the NFL does a definitive evaluation of the combined draft selection, free agent signing, trades, and coaching staff building capabilities of the GMs.   Hopefully this year Beane is #1 in the combined total. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

Well, you’re proving you didn’t read how this works, which makes your reply largely meaningless 😂

 

That is absolutely not the case at all. I’ll let you go back and read up. Because I know you won’t, and it’ll confuse others, here’s how it actually breaks down. 
 

Basham + Elam + Spector = -21.6

 

Benford = 9.7 

I’ve read how it works 5 years running.

 

You are still basing all of your work off wAV. And wAV is a JAG/end of the roster fluff machine. As evidenced by the JAG/end of the roster fluff machine. Your stat that is the crux of your argument ranks a Boogie Basham bust sucky player as an infinitely better contributor than someone who doesn’t make the team or see the field.

 

Which we know is not true. There are a trillion Boogie-tier guys in the NFL or on the couch.
 

Our drafts probably look better with your methodology because Hamlin has started 2 years due to injury and the safety room sucking. He still sucks. Gonna have a better wAV though. 

Edited Friday at 01:40 PM by FireChans

[SoCal Deek]

Someone said the table is unfairly weighted because Josh has been the starting quarterback. Which got me thinking; how many of the 32 starting quarterbacks were drafted by their current team? Right off the top of my head it has to be a high percentage. No? 

[JGMcD2]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

I’ve read how it works 5 years running.

 

You are still basing all of your work off wAV. And wAV is a JAG/end of the roster fluff machine. As evidenced by the JAG/end of the roster fluff machine. Your stat that is the crux of your argument ranks a Boogie Basham bust sucky player as an infinitely better contributor than someone who doesn’t make the team or see the field.

 

Which we know is not true. There are a trillion Boogie-tier guys in the NFL or on the couch.
 

Our drafts probably look better with your methodology because Hamlin has started 2 years due to injury and the safety room sucking. He still sucks. Gonna have a better wAV though. 

You are clearly articulating that you don't understand how this works. Boogie Basham, despite possibly have an AV slightly better than some practice squad or fringe roster players, still returns more negative value for the Buffalo Bills. His on-field production has not justified his selection, and because of this is reflecting negatively against the Bills. 

 

Damar Hamlin provides some positive value, as expected from a starter on a 12–13 win team, but it's not substantial. In the same draft, Rousseau and Spencer Brown add significant value, with Brown contributing heavily. However, Hamlin’s value is largely offset by the lack of contributions from other picks like Boogie Basham, Tommy Doyle, Marquez Stevenson, Rachad Wildgoose, and Jack Anderson. As a result, the bulk of the 2021 draft class value for Buffalo comes from Rousseau and Brown, who rank 9th in the class—well behind the top 5 teams (DET, KAN, DEN, PHI, and HOU).

 

 

I’m open to constructive feedback, but after five years of analysis, I haven’t seen received anything tangible that helps improve the process. Most people with a negative reaction, including yourself, seem to struggle with understanding how it works. If you have solid suggestions or publicly available information that’s reliable for comparing players across different positions, that would be helpful.

Edited Friday at 04:46 PM by JGMcD2