Draft Success Measured by AV - Part V

[JGMcD2]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Someone said the table is unfairly weighted because Josh has been the starting quarterback. Which got me thinking; how many of the 32 starting quarterbacks were drafted by their current team? Right off the top of my head it has to be a high percentage. No? 

It's like 22/32 so nearly 70%.

[Big Turk]

On 1/16/2025 at 1:06 PM, BarleyNY said:

The Bills numbers are very good overall, but they are definitely helped immensely by starting the cumulative calculations in 2018 when Allen was drafted. Likewise Baltimore is helped in the same way with Lamar drafted 32 that season. 

 

Edited to add: I understand that this is a measurement of Beane’s tenure and that’s why it started in 2017. Not sure why 2024 wasn’t included though. My point is simply that nailing a QB in 2017 - as he did and should get credit for - pumps up the numbers dramatically. 

 

Just went and added it up for 2024...Bills draft class has an AV of 21, so that can be added to the number.

 

Only behind Commanders(42), Rams(34), Chargers(31),  Giants(29), Broncos(24), Titans(24), Bears(24),  Raiders(23), and 49ers(23)...

 

Bengals also tied for 21 with their seemingly endless number of picks they had.

 

Chiefs in comparison had 12.

Edited Friday at 09:41 PM by Big Turk

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Just went and added it up for 2024...Bills draft class has an AV of 21, so that can be added to the number.

 

Only behind Commanders(42), Rams(34), Chargers(31),  Giants(29), Broncos(24), Titans(24), Bears(24),  Raiders(23), and 49ers(23)...

 

Bengals also tied for 21 with their seemingly endless number of picks they had.

 

Chiefs in comparison had 12.

It’s not just adding up the raw AV numbers for each player. There is a weight associated with each round and rewards you for over performing or under performing with your selection in the round compared to your peers. 
 

This illustrates it pretty well…

 

Damar Hamlin provides some positive value, as expected from a starter on a 12–13 win team, but it's not substantial. In the same draft, Rousseau and Spencer Brown add significant value, with Brown contributing heavily. However, Hamlin’s value is largely offset by the lack of contributions from other picks like Boogie Basham, Tommy Doyle, Marquez Stevenson, Rachad Wildgoose, and Jack Anderson. As a result, the bulk of the 2021 draft class value for Buffalo comes from Rousseau and Brown, who rank 9th in the class—well behind the top 5 teams (DET, KAN, DEN, PHI, and HOU).

 

[harmonkillebrew]

I think Beane has done a good job at getting mid-round guys that exceed expectations.  Part of that is good mentoring by McD's staff, which is where they excel (game day planning and late game decision making..... not so much).

 

But what I don't think this metric captures, is the lack of elite talent hits.  

What the Bills are missing, is clutch, elite talent that can put them over the top, past the Chiefs, to make up for sub-par game day coaching. 

We need major hits in Rd 1 and 2 that perform at key positions.  Instead we get Keon, Dalton, Elam, Torrence, Groot, AJE, Oliver, Boogie - who aren't gamechangers and don't step up in the clutch. Are they decent players, yet, but we need more elite players.  Cook is really the only recent draft pick under Beane that qualifies, IMHO.

[Big Turk]

On 1/17/2025 at 8:38 AM, FireChans said:

I’ve read how it works 5 years running.

 

You are still basing all of your work off wAV. And wAV is a JAG/end of the roster fluff machine. As evidenced by the JAG/end of the roster fluff machine. Your stat that is the crux of your argument ranks a Boogie Basham bust sucky player as an infinitely better contributor than someone who doesn’t make the team or see the field.

 

Which we know is not true. There are a trillion Boogie-tier guys in the NFL or on the couch.
 

Our drafts probably look better with your methodology because Hamlin has started 2 years due to injury and the safety room sucking. He still sucks. Gonna have a better wAV though. 

 

Yes...we continuously are among the elite teams in the NFL by constantly drafting and employing JAGs.

 

That must be it.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Yes...we continuously are among the elite teams in the NFL by constantly drafting and employing JAGs.

 

That must be it.

Our entire UFA group this offseason is a whose who of JAGs that either started or heavily contributed to the Bills this year.

 

Ty, Reggie, Smoot, Toohill, Phillips, QJ, Hamlin lmao. 
 

Then you add the older, semi-washed mercenaries like Douglas and Cooper. 

How many of these dudes are getting a contract of $10M AAV or more? Maybe one? That’s one guy getting the tied for 222nd highest salary in the NFL.

 

Very funny 

[Big Turk]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Our entire UFA group this offseason is a whose who of JAGs that either started or heavily contributed to the Bills this year.

 

Ty, Reggie, Smoot, Toohill, Phillips, QJ, Hamlin lmao. 
 

Then you add the older, semi-washed mercenaries like Douglas and Cooper. 

How many of these dudes are getting a contract of $10M AAV or more? Maybe one? That’s one guy getting the tied for 222nd highest salary in the NFL.

 

Very funny 

 

Guess some teams rely on drafting players to fill needs better than others.

 

UFAs are the lesser effective and more expensive way of building teams.

 

Most big UFAs are overpaid on day 1 when they walk in the door.

Edited Saturday at 12:33 AM by Big Turk

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, harmonkillebrew said:

I think Beane has done a good job at getting mid-round guys that exceed expectations.  Part of that is good mentoring by McD's staff, which is where they excel (game day planning and late game decision making..... not so much).

 

But what I don't think this metric captures, is the lack of elite talent hits.  

What the Bills are missing, is clutch, elite talent that can put them over the top, past the Chiefs, to make up for sub-par game day coaching. 

We need major hits in Rd 1 and 2 that perform at key positions.  Instead we get Keon, Dalton, Elam, Torrence, Groot, AJE, Oliver, Boogie - who aren't gamechangers and don't step up in the clutch. Are they decent players, yet, but we need more elite players.  Cook is really the only recent draft pick under Beane that qualifies, IMHO.

Torrence was been a starter since 1 of his rookie year. That's no small feat, as Juice Scruggs taken in same draft same round has only managed 19 starts the last two seasons. Everyone's favorite Chiefs took 

Kingsley Suamataia in the 2nd round last year and he was benched by seasons end. I could name more names.

 

To call Keon lack of clutch is a misnomer as think he showed to be a playmaker before his injury.  I remember his one handed ***** against the Seahawks, a run down the sidelines for another TD. Toss in he is a rookie, I'm pretty sure Cook isn't the same player he is now his rookie year. Truth is we are own worst critics I'd imagine 31 other team fans could only wish they've had the success we've had over last 5 seasons. 

[harmonkillebrew]

21 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Torrence was been a starter since 1 of his rookie year. That's no small feat, as Juice Scruggs taken in same draft same round has only managed 19 starts the last two seasons. Everyone's favorite Chiefs took 

Kingsley Suamataia in the 2nd round last year and he was benched by seasons end. I could name more names.

 

To call Keon lack of clutch is a misnomer as think he showed to be a playmaker before his injury.  I remember his one handed ***** against the Seahawks, a run down the sidelines for another TD. Toss in he is a rookie, I'm pretty sure Cook isn't the same player he is now his rookie year. Truth is we are own worst critics I'd imagine 31 other team fans could only wish they've had the success we've had over last 5 seasons. 

Torrence regressed this year, unfortunately.  He's solid, don't get me wrong, just saying we need some big hits to make it past the Chiefs. not really talking about the other 31 teams here.

 

the future is bright with Torrence and Keon and others that still have room to grow, but we need them to and them to become clutch, or we will never be kings of the AFC